Kikilala3188

Yeah this brings the numbers back to required level; next is to push for REIT and lift further to 2.90-3.10

3 weeks ago

sg999

there is no banker control ioipg, beware on tmr might open high close low again, whole property sector is sinking now.

3 weeks ago

Agjl

Excluding fair value, PBT ard 84m. M i right?

3 weeks ago

stockpicker888

Hi Dragon328, underlying PBT of the quarter is almost halfed YOY, mainly due to greater write-offs and depreciation , but I do see property segments improved YOY (however QOQ decreased by around 20mil/9%) . What do you think of this quarter’s performance looking purely at the core of the business?

3 weeks ago

dragon328

@Agjl, excluding the revaluation gains and impairments, the underlying PBT is RM87.3 million as stated in the report. But in the hotel segment, there was additionally some higher depreciation and write-off of hotel assets totalling RM96.7m, if I exclude the write-off of hotel assets, I estimate the underlying PBT would have been around RM170 million.

3 weeks ago

dragon328

@stockpicker888, as explained above, there was some hotel asset write-off in the hospitality segment in Q4 FY2024, which I suspect was related to old assets at the recently acquired W Hotel KL. I would treat it as one-off and estimate it to be around RM80m.
So I would put the core PBT of Q4 FY2024 to be around RM170m which would be some 60% higher than last year Q4.

3 weeks ago

dragon328

Against Q3 FY2024, Q4 core earnings would have been higher as well. Recall that in Q3 Fy2024, the earnings were boosted by a land sale amounting to RM211 million.

3 weeks ago

stockpicker888

@dragon328 you're absolutely right, while waiting for your response, my doubt has been clarified via looking back at Q3 report. Hence, core property business + hotel/mall segments are generally improving YOY and QOQ basis. Coupled with the rejection to take over Shenton House, hopefully, investors would finally see the intrinsic value of this gem. Next up, I'm anticipating the further reveal of the the Johor-SG SEZ deal, to be the next catalyst of its share price. Fingers crossed , and happy investing to all.

3 weeks ago

Agjl

Sg999….i think u might be right. Today open high and close low for the day… sold tis morning ard 2.05 hope to buy back later.. the company is good but sentiments are not so favorable at the moment. Thus i sold. Happy hunting. Cheers!

3 weeks ago

Agjl

Dragon…thanks for the clarifications. Cheers!

3 weeks ago

dragon328

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dragon328/2024-08-29-story-h-153177383-IOIPG_The_Dawn_of_Explosive_Earnings_Growth

My analysis of IOIPG Q4 result as above for your leisure read. It is good for long term investment.

3 weeks ago

teochaimou

https://www.nst.com.my/property/2024/08/1098624/ioi-properties-may-revisit-shenton-house-acquisition-market-insiders

3 weeks ago

raymondroy

missed out on this development..... rejection of CEO's offer on shenton house, but surprisingly IOIPG has agreed to be the exclusive project manager and some extend developer as well as first rights of refusal on the purchase.... interesting'

https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/08/1097980/ioi-properties-rejects-ceo-lees-offer-buy-shenton-house-will

3 weeks ago

Eagle77

Recession is coming, Mpox also coming ⬇️⬇️⬇️🩸🩸🩸TP 1.50 below ☠️

3 weeks ago

Eagle77

Fake buy call by the IB just look at YTL today by call RM6-7 but plunging nonstop till 3.70 ⬇️⬇️⬇️🩸🩸🩸

3 weeks ago

dragon328

After the expiry of a call warrant last Friday, IOIPG can enjoy steady rise now.

With the Shenton House proposal rejected, IOIPG should be gradually going back to RM2.50 level.

3 weeks ago

bullrun2025

@dragon328, below rm2 now

2 weeks ago

Nadayu

HSR coming soon making all the property stock rebound

2 weeks ago

dragon328

Now high gearing is no longer an issue with analysts, who now spell fears on high interest expenses at IOICB that will start to kick in from Q1 FY2025. I think there sell-side analysts have overblown the issue on high interest expense, just like they overblew the issue of high gearing before.

Nonetheless, the overall market sentiment is weak with US stock markets dropping big last week. Yet foreign funds still net bought hundreds of million ringgit worth of equities in Bursa last week. The average cost of entry into IOIPG by foreign funds is slightly above RM2.00, so at current prices below RM2.00 I do not think many foreign funds will sell.

Some local funds are not yet buying in IOIPG as its net gearing is higher than 50% hence is classified as non syariah compliant, but at least we see EPF still accumulating IOIPG in past few weeks.

When foreign funds and local funds are not buying, local retailers tend to sell to cut loss as their holding power is weak.

2 weeks ago

dragon328

We may need to wait for 1 or 2 more quarters before we can see meaningful rebounds in the share price of IOIPG, as the company needs to ride through Q1 and Q2 FY2025 when IOICB is expected to incur some losses due to interest expenses kicking in and tenancy remains at 50%.

2 weeks ago

dragon328

However, I do not discount the possibility of IOIPG share price rebounding earlier if we can see some good news coming up in coming weeks:

2 weeks ago

dragon328

- IOICB secures more tenants beyond the current 50%

2 weeks ago

dragon328

- US Fed lowers fund rates by over 25 bps in its September meeting, or cut by 100 bps before end of 2024

2 weeks ago

dragon328

- any land sale in Johor
- a sooner turnaround in its hotel business
- potential setting up of a commercial REIT to house its shopping malls and office towers in Malaysia

2 weeks ago

dragon328

or the Marina View Residences project receives better than expected responses after launch in September

2 weeks ago

Kikilala3188

Hmm need to hold for min 6-7 months

Unless got tailwinds and make the counter enticing again

2 weeks ago

dragon328

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726505

A positive move by IOIPG, the new industrial park segment may be the next catalyst to propel the company higher in coming 2-3 years

1 week ago

kkl123

PE 5 now
I think can up to Rm3 by end oct24

1 week ago

Kikilala3188

PE 5, really undervalued by two times

Really need to add some spice to brew the numbers

1 week ago

Kikilala3188

Possible to land at 2.20 by end of this week? Seeing some upward consistency

1 week ago

UncleFollower

2.2 is not a problem. But if you're eyeing 2.2 to sell might as well sell now and speculate somewhere else. Because this one you should be patient and wait for them to announce the game plan

1 week ago

UncleFollower

IOIPG has been picking up smallish 2nd 3rd tier properties in Msia...this coincides w a bright outlook in Msia property sector. However, the game is the disposal to REIT. They have a huge Singapore exposure, top tier properties. Bundle it with the 3rd tier malaysia properties add back top tier IOI City Mall, this will be a huge blue chip REIT. What will IOIPG share price be by then?

1 week ago

UncleFollower

The game for the low tier properties is to buy it below value and then enhance it a little, inject to REIT at a huge premium. Senior Lee taught his youngest son well

1 week ago

dragon328

@UncleFollower, you are likely right to point out the game plan of IOIPG, which all sounds well to me. This is evidenced from the recent purchases of W Hotel KL, Langkawi land for a hotel resort development and Tropicana City Mall, all purchased at below book value especially the last one Tropicana City Mall at almost 30% discount to book.

I expect IOIPG to turn around the business and grow them into steady cash cows then inject into REITs. When they inject the matured IOI City Mall, IOI Mall Puchong and this Tropicana City Mall into a commercial REIT in Malaysia at say dividend yield of 5.5%, the potential value of the commercial REIT may be over RM7.0 billion.

IOIPG may inject its hotels into a hospitality REIT separately when the hotels business turns around and yields steady cashflows, once the management estimated that its hotel assets would be worth some RM2.5 billion.

1 week ago

Kikilala3188

Sure, wanted to keep my portfolio in green haha

IOIPG by valuation on NTA, really can unleash for mega REIT: 2nd gen Lee’s legacy is coming up

1 week ago

Kikilala3188

When you have the track record and cash pile: 2nd and 3rd tier properties are the main dishes

1 week ago

UncleFollower

@dragon given the depth and liquidty of S-REITs over M-REITs + IOI's huge exposure in SG, i think there's a good chance they either list it in SG or have a dual-listed REIT over SGX and Bursa, instead of a M-REIT. Actually if they list it in SG it's good enough, dual-listing it is to be poltiically correct, I guess. YTL's Starhill REIT owns our KL Assets via its S-REIT, that was done before current political climate.

1 week ago

UncleFollower

Crown jewels are IOI City Mall + IOI Central Boulevard. And I think the latter is neater, easier, faster. So first a pure play office reit, followed by the retail reit. IOIPG doesnt need to trailblaze, they can emulate Capitaland's model. The SG properties alone should be injected at above RM18B valuation

1 week ago

Kikilala3188

And now Capitaland have the capacity to buy stake in Club Med, multi billion euro deal

1 week ago

UncleFollower

Market is justly responding to rate cut. Everyone knows IOI prop's props are now worth more as we enter new rate cut era + even WCT can do a 2.4B REIT, IOIPG? Whoaaaaa

5 days ago

Investorrr

I think this round IOIP will be the superstar

5 days ago

Investorrr

Big land bank in Kulai (within SEZ),and Reit retail malls

5 days ago

Investorrr

quietly recovering from the deep ,

5 days ago

UncleFollower

@dragon328 has very good write-ups...he may even know more about IOIPG than its CEO damn 🤣🤣🤣

5 days ago

UncleFollower

You can't not mention IOI Singapore...if you look at Keppel REIT, occupancy is consistently at 99% and they are older buildings. I'm familiar with IOI's CBD properties, another league altogether. That will be a huge one to REIT.




Investorrr

Big land bank in Kulai (within SEZ),and Reit retail malls

5 hours ago

5 days ago

Kikilala3188

IOIPG BOD to rush for the bandwagon? Or just hold again?

Are they close with Johor royal?

5 days ago

dragon328

@UncleFollower, I agree that IOIPG's commercial properties in Singapore are neater and certainly the crown jewels for the group besides IOI City Mall.

The management has the target to ramp up tenancy at IOI Central Boulevard to 80% by this year end. Then I hope they can achieve 95% tenancy by end June 2025, and it will be ripe for injection into a commercial REIT in Singapore.

With shortages in prime office in Singapore CBD, I am confident that IOICB will achieve average rental rate of above SGD13.00 psf by end FY2025, and the valuation for IOICB could exceed SGD5.0 billion (CEO Lee once said he would expect a valuation of SGD6.0 billion for IOICB) by end FY2025 and be close to SGD6.0 billion by FY2026 when tenancy achieves 99%-100% and rental rate is revised up by 5%-8%.

Now as IOIPG has the exclusive right to develop and market Shenton House redevelopment project, it can time it such that the marketing for the redeveloped Shenton House prime office will start from FY2027 after IOICB achieves 100% tenancy to avoid competition and conflicts of interests.

The Singapore REIT of IOIPG may be expanded when W Hotel at Marina View Residences is completed and achieves steady income in FY2027. W Hotel Singapore when injected into the REIT may be worth SGD600-1,000 million which would recoup all the investment costs of IOIPG in developing the hotel.

5 days ago

Kikilala3188

Few trading days at good volume but share price not picking up, faced some resistance at 2.16

1 day ago

Nadayu

Tomorrow 2.50

3 hours ago

Kikilala3188

Sure? Been waiting for this, RM 2.16 for so many consecutive trading days

3 hours ago