Dear Fund Investors/IOU Holders,
Introduction
Since the inception of this fund on the 21st March 2017 to the 3rd of January 2018, the fund have recorded a gain of XX.XXX%. Depending on the date of your investment, or investment structure with me, your returns is likely to differ.
This result, is currently ahead of FD: 4.2%, 2016 EPF rates of 5.7%, and the KLSE index of 9.53%.
It is however, far below the gains of the S&P 500 index of 20.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 26.38% or the NASDAQ NMS Composite Index of 29.47%.
The primary reason for our under performance in comparison to the US stock market indices, is due to our lack of exposure of US stock market.
Having said that, the fund is unlikely to be investing in the US stock markets for the foreseeable future (unless extenuating circumstances occur), as my circle of competence currently reside mainly in Malaysian, and to a small extent, Singaporean equities. Given time, we may expand more fully to Singaporean equities.
However, I would like to also elaborate on one other reason why I invest in Malaysian Equities. The answer is simple, it’s one of the cheapest in the world right now.
Whilst every stock market in the world posted record gains (even Japan, whose markets have finally left a 30 year stagflation), the Malaysian stock market have actually fallen in the second half of 2017, before gaining an incredible 5.8% in just 23 days, and even then, it is still 2/3 behind the gains posted by the Nasdaq.
The stock market is one of the places, where the law of economics do not work. In the real world, the cheaper the product (while value stays the same), the higher the demand. In the stock market however, the higher the price, the higher the demand!
This is largely driven due to, greed, the fear of missing out, and the inability to tune out the knowledge that someone else is making more money than you. God forbid it’s a neighbour, relative, colleague, classmate or family member!
There’s something about our human nature, where, if we know someone is doing better than us, it turns into special kind of hell for us. And as your fund manager, I too am human and subject to these feelings, but I think (or at least would like to) that I’m especially adept at controlling this part of our nature. Let me elaborate how.
Our investment philosophy
As this is the first letter of the fund, I think it is important that I reiterate the investment philosophy of this fund, so that everyone is up to speed.
This fund (I actually have not even thought of a name yet) is a pure value, long term only fund, managed with the intention of earning good absolute returns regardless of how any particular financial market performs.
The philosophy is implemented with a bottom-up value investment strategy whereby we hold only those securities that are significantly undervalued and hold cash when we cannot find better alternatives.
An investment philosophy such as ours will theoretically lag during a bull (rapidly rising) market, but outperform a bear (lacklustre or declining) market.
So what are our principles?
Closing statements.
While I will continue to attempt to raise new capital, it will not be my policy to compromise the Fund’s current policies and principles to do so. You have all accepted the fund on its own terms, and first and foremost, it is my intention to protect your capital and enhance your returns.
And for some of you who are IOU holders (Principle Guaranteed, with XX% guaranteed interest “Highest FD rate in Malaysia” and 40% of return above XX%), the protection of your principle and minimum profit is guaranteed.
Be assured that I eat my own cooking and have my own skin in game. The vast majority of my liquid net worth (99%), aside from money set aside for modest living expenses, is in the fund.
If I compound my own investment in the Fund at a rate of 15% annually, excluding fees, for 50 years, I will have over RM130 million. If I achieve 20%, I would be a billionaire with RM1.09 billion.
This is how I think about your investment. It is also why I do not think in terms of monthly or quarterly snapshots of performance, although I do understand that after 5 years or so, you would expect to see a favourable trend. I intend to provide it.
The current holdings of the fund on a percentage basis as at prevailing market prices is as follows:
Equities |
% Of Fund |
X |
1% |
X |
2% |
X |
2% |
X |
2% |
X |
3% |
X |
3% |
X |
5% |
X |
5% |
X |
6% |
X |
10% |
X |
22% |
X |
30% |
Cash |
8% |
Total |
100% |
The fund maintains a high degree of concentration, with the top 3 holdings comprising 60% of the fund. Some of these stocks may be relatively illiquid. As a result, apparent short-term may be adversely or positively affected by otherwise normal fluctuations in portfolio holdings.
While it has not been my observation that the Fund experiences undue volatility on a daily basis, there can be no certainty of this trend continuing. I do not view volatility as being in any manner a measure of risk, and hence the fund is not managed to minimize volatility.
Please feel free to call me if I have not been clear, or if you need further clarification on the matters discussed above.
Sincerely
Jon Choivo
====================================================================
Facebook: Choivo Capital
Website: www.choivocapital.com
Email: choivocapital@gmail.com
Created by Choivo Capital | Dec 09, 2020
Created by Choivo Capital | Dec 05, 2020
Created by Choivo Capital | Nov 09, 2020
Created by Choivo Capital | Nov 09, 2020
Created by Choivo Capital | Nov 03, 2020
a jot of jons starts with good intentions and then go astray somewhere along the line.
2018-01-22 16:53
I don't tell people what i buy or sell. =)
If its good, no need to promote.
2018-01-22 17:03
nevertheless you write well
but your approach will not make you a super investor....
to be superinvestor, you need to sailang and margin and all in.
2018-01-22 19:22
You forget to take into account the superbankrupts. Haha
I don't need to be rich or a super investor tomorrow.
I know its just a matter of time for me to be rich, and an investor with a decent track record (super or not, that one let other people tell me).
I'm very conservative minded lah, not much of a gambler.
brightsmart nevertheless you write well
but your approach will not make you a super investor....
to be superinvestor, you need to sailang and margin and all in.
22/01/2018 19:22
2018-01-22 20:01
Investing in the stock market is a means to achieve an objective. When I first started, my objective was to buy a home and I achieved it within seven years. Now I am investing for my retirement fund.
2018-01-23 22:30
mohnish pabrai said to be rich, compound interest rate & length of the runway. but if you are not born rich, and you are rich only when you are like 60years old. what is the use of money then? so need to combine both, find a middle path. sometime aggressiveness and margin might be a means to increase that compound interest rate. but if unlucky.... no black and white answer le.
2018-01-23 22:37
This is true, my new year goal is to save less money ahaha.
cheoky mohnish pabrai said to be rich, compound interest rate & length of the runway. but if you are not born rich, and you are rich only when you are like 60years old. what is the use of money then? so need to combine both, find a middle path. sometime aggressiveness and margin might be a means to increase that compound interest rate. but if unlucky.... no black and white answer le
23/01/2018 22:37
2018-01-24 23:58
I pressume yr return is less than 15% last year...no bad is better than calvin but still in bottom 50
2018-01-29 07:17
Barely above 15. It would have been ~20% if not for my gross misjudgment and inexperience on several stocks.
If i can get 15-20% per annum for 50 years, i and my investors will very happy. In any event, records done during bull periods don't mean much. Its how you do during recession that counts.
CharlesT I pressume yr return is less than 15% last year...no bad is better than calvin but still in bottom 50
29/01/2018 07:17
2018-01-29 17:12
In any event, records done during bull periods don't mean much. Its how you do during recession that counts.
Yeap, during bull mkt even donkey also can make 15%...
2018-01-30 15:48
I too, would like to discover if im a donkey that can talk and write well. Or a good or maybe even great investor.
Time will tell. I promised myself i will find out. I give myself a minimum of 10 years. If i cant beat the KLSE by 10% CAGR over that time period. Maybe i'm just not that good.
CharlesT In any event, records done during bull periods don't mean much. Its how you do during recession that counts.
Yeap, during bull mkt even donkey also can make 15%...
30/01/2018 15:48
2018-03-07 22:48
Negative 12%. :)
Its still ahead of ACE drop of 18% and Smallcap drop of 15%. But it still does not feel good.
However, i know all my stuff meet my investment criteria, have good value to begin with and is cheap.
In addition i am unleveraged, with excess cash to put in if it drops further or pay back investors who cannot stand a bear market.
So all these give me give me optimism for the years ahead.
Just waiting for elections, as i have a feeling PR will win, and if they do, the first few weeks will have alot of discounts.
Ill go on 25-40% margin if my portfolio drops more than 30% this year.
CharlesT Hows yr return so far this year? -15%?
23/03/2018 13:56
2018-03-23 14:28
Mkt bad most people will lose money lah
Mkt good (2017) most people will make money lah
It's time to test yr real Kung Fu when mkt is bad
2018-03-23 18:06
last year most counter drop almost everyday, unless u r gain is from specific counters, if u open more counters ,the great your chances of making losses.
2018-03-23 18:12
i learn my lesson last year, dont open so many counters but focus on specific counter, the more u open, the greater your risk. Be focus,hit, dont fall in love with stocks, cut win.
2018-03-23 18:15
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2017/142745.jsp
There is another one with more participants..but couldnt find the link anymore
2018-03-23 18:16
thanks, i'll analyze their pick, check why they choose those counters and what is the nature of the counters
2018-03-23 18:19
But if they up, would your philosophy be buy more counters to diversify?
Haha
Posted by hollandking > Mar 23, 2018 06:12 PM | Report Abuse
last year most counter drop almost everyday, unless u r gain is from specific counters, if u open more counters ,the great your chances of making losses.
Just hold only. No need think so much. Make sure you collect cash, so if really drop till stupid, can buy.
Posted by CharlesT > Mar 23, 2018 06:06 PM | Report Abuse
Mkt bad most people will lose money lah
Mkt good (2017) most people will make money lah
It's time to test yr real Kung Fu when mkt is bad
2018-03-23 18:26
portfolio design is the skill and knowledge of the designer and the risk appetite of the customer.
2018-03-23 18:30
I think this is for traders.
I dont really care for designing the portfolio. Maybe its cause im not that good, and it does not really matter to me.
I just focus on finding good co. And make sure my exposure is large, but not too large. Ie max exposure is 25%.
Maybe when i have like a few million, can now consider structuring it to have wide exposure industry wise.
Posted by qqq3 > Mar 23, 2018 06:30 PM | Report Abuse
portfolio design is the skill and knowledge of the designer and the risk appetite of the customer.
2018-03-23 18:31
"In any event, records done during bull periods don't mean much. Its how you do during recession that counts." Well said, all the best for 2018.
2018-03-23 18:35
osted by Jon Choivo > Mar 23, 2018 06:31 PM | Report Abuse
I just focus on finding good co.
=====================================
that is what everybody claims.....especially those not from the financial industry and those not trained by CFA.
2018-03-23 18:37
qqq3,
I am taking the CFA.
Im not saying you should be constructing portfolio properly for risk management purposes. I'm saying, unless you have a large enough amount of money, and access to so many asset classes. As well as knowledge in so many.
You're probably wasting your time and money.
2018-03-23 19:40
share is one asset class...but we can also find many different characteristics within shares.
2018-03-23 19:46
In a crisis, correlation goes to 1. Every single asset class drop whether or not it is related.
So much for all that portfolio construction. In Malaysia, portfolio construction for retailers is largely a waste of time. Just sendiri be smart, dont expose yourself too much to one stock or industry.
It is people with CFA's who caused the financial systems to crash in 2008. Not OTB types.
2018-03-23 19:51
Yeah, you cant short, no options, no derivatives. No bonds on the market, no commodities etc.
Construct what portfolio lol.
Use common sense can d.
2018-03-23 19:53
I wish you success in your undertaking.
Maybe you can also share with the audience the fees involved in this fund of yours.
Thks.
2018-03-23 19:58
>>>>The main preference, would of course be a business in a fantastic industry, with a long-term competitive advantage (or “Competitive Moat”), operated by honest and competent people and most importantly available at a fair or very attractive price.>>>>>
These are also the four tenets of Buffett and Munger in their selection of stocks to invest.
>>>>>During our project to read 5 years’ worth of annual reports for all 926 companies listed in the KLSE, we have found one, and it also happened to be available at a fair price. The other will of course be the one and only Public Bank (Do note a few more have since been found, but prices are not as attractive).<<<<
Staying within one's circle of competence is a great discipline. I too have screened through the stocks in the KLSE and found only about 20 stocks that fall into the category of great companies. Applying a stricter requirement, reduces these to only a few. Often, as you mentioned, these stocks are trading at fair to high prices.
2018-03-23 20:03
This is likely to be my structure for the next 5 years, until i have a silver of a track record. Good record, can start a proper fund. Bad record, manage my own money.
2 options.
1) I guarantee your capital plus the highest prevailing FD rate in Malaysia, 3,5 to 10 year lock. If you want put alot, a long ass lock. 60% above that FD rate is mine, 40% is yours. I wont take more than 50% of my own equity as i dont want to over leverage.
2) No profit. Win or lose you keep. Ill just manage your account.
2018-03-27 21:37
Posted by 3iii > Mar 23, 2018 08:03 PM | Report Abuse
>>>Staying within one's circle of competence is a great discipline. I too have screened through the stocks in the KLSE and found only about 20 stocks that fall into the category of great companies. Applying a stricter requirement, reduces these to only a few. Often, as you mentioned, these stocks are trading at fair to high prices.<<<
How do you screen these stocks?? by reading manually or use some sort of screener??
2018-03-29 01:47
teoct
What are the counters?
2018-01-22 15:49