Sslee blog
Insas Deep Value Investing: Assets value (liquid assets) and Earning play
Dear all,
Some of the material below is copy paste from KCChong article:
It is fascinating that when we value our net worth we value our properties(s) at market value and ignoring the little rental it generates, our stocks at marked- to-market value again ignoring the little dividend it generates and our bank balance at more than it face value as we like to say “cash is king” and we are just waiting for market to crash and be spoilt for choice to pick up the beaten down stocks. However, when it comes to investing in stocks, most investors place greater emphasis on earnings of company or projected future earning and often, ignoring the company's balance sheet. This is why faddish companies occasionally rise to incredible market valuations despite a relative absence of hard assets, current assets, cash and bank balance but plenty of revenue, receivable and bank borrowing. So my question why asset-rich companies occasionally trade well below replacement value? Is Mr. Market always right and can do no wrong?
Equally why Mr. Market likes to rewards CEO of dubious characters that over promises/tall tales (MOU, Vision 202X to pump the share price) but under delivered (many excuses with smoke screen, countersuit and etc) and punished a honest, hardworking and maybe a bit conservative and prudent CEO who had accumulated so much wealth into the company balance sheet? So are we been fair to INSAS and for that matter Dato’ Sri Thong for building up and loaded into INSAS so much wealth?
Let’s examines INSAS:
Number of Share: 663,006,342 (EXCLUDING 30,327,291 TREASURY SHARE)
Dato’ Sri Thong and his brother Dato Thong direct and deemed interest: 32.96%
Number of Warrant B: 265,202,536 (Exercise price: RM 1.00. Expiry date: 25 FEB 2020)
Dato’ Sri Thong direct and deemed interest: 31.45%
Number of RPS: 132,610,268 (Expiry date: 25 FEB 2020)
Dato’ Sri Thong direct and deemed interest: 41.80%
https://klse.i3investor.com/insider/director/0166/24-Apr-2019/140031_899433379.jsp
INSAS still hold 609,212,026 Inari share or 19.19%
Insas was a major shareholder of Inari way before its listing in July 2011 which it held more than 40% share then. After listing, and some corporate exercises, and selling of some shares, Insas still own 19.19% of Inari shares and equity account as associate companies (by virtue of having board representation in Inari). At the present price of Inari of RM1.66 as on 16th July 2019, the market value of Inari is worth RM 1 billion to Insas or about RM1.51 per share of Insas. This alone is already more than 85% above the market price of Insas of 80 sen. That also means Insas is trading at 53% below the value of Inari’s shares it holds, alone! Insas, besides Inari and other associate companies, it has heaps of cash and cash equivalent and huge amount of marked-to-market financial assets and a few other businesses.
Balance sheet on 31th March 2019: Total current assets 1,531,914,000 against Total liabilities 632,992,000 and healthy total non-current assets 825,432,000.
So my question: Mr. Market what mental models or human behaviors at play in buying Inari at RM1.66 when you can use the same capital to buy 2.075 Insas share at 80 cents and hold indirectly 1.90 Inari share and all the cash and cash equivalent and all the other Insas business?
Company business
Insas Berhad (Insas) is engaged in the investment holding and the provision of management services. The Company operates in the five segments:
1. Financial Services: Stock broking, provision of corporate finance & advisory services and structured finance
2. Investment holding and trading
3. Technology & IT related services
4. Retail trading and car rental
5. Property investment and development,
1.1: Financial Services
M&A Securities Sdn Bhd (“M&A”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Insas, is a stock broking company providing trading services for stocks and shares listed on Bursa and recognised foreign stock exchanges share margin financing, corporate advisory services and other regulated activities.
In June 2017, Bursa launched the Leading Entrepreneur Accelerator Platform (“LEAP Market”) aimed at facilitating access to the capital market by small and medium sized enterprises (“SME”), and M&A has acted as principal advisers and successfully listed 3 companies on the LEAP Market since its launch in June 2017. M&A has also successfully listed 2 companies on the ACE Market. It is ranked as one of the top principal advisers in the IPO market for ACE & LEAP Market. M&A will continue its niche in the stock broking and corporate advisory role in promoting SME companies to list on the LEAP and ACE Markets.
1.2: Structured Finance
The Group’s lending arm, Insas Credit & Leasing Sdn Bhd (“ICL”) is licensed under the Moneylenders Act, 1951. ICL has established itself as a boutique structured finance provider to selected sophisticated investors and corporations seeking short- and medium-term financing for working capital and investment purposes.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/6218041
As of 30th June 2019, ICL has outstanding loans portfolio of RM267.455 million which are fully collateralized and unsecured corporate loans RM30.162 million generating interest income to the Group. The interest rate charged by ICL is in accordance with the Moneylending Act, which is not more than 12% p.a.for secured loans and not more than 18% p.a.for unsecured loans.
2: Investment holding and trading
The Group’s investment strategies encompass stringent asset allocation and diversification to manage risk of the portfolio investments of the Group. To that, the Group acquires fixed and variable income investments typically money market funds, debt securities and high yield growth stocks and listed equities and options. These investments are held on a medium to long term investment horizon of 1 to 5 years. The Group’s investment objectives are to maximise capital growth with recurring income and cash flows above the cost of funds.
As of 30th June 2018, the Group’s investments in listed equities are primarily in the properties, technology, consumer products and financial services sectors in both local and overseas stock exchanges, and the key equity investments include, amongst others, IGB REITS, Omesti Berhad, SYF Resources Berhad and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited.
Quoted securities, at market value:
- In Malaysia RM 57,744,000 with gross dividend received RM 2,750,000
-Outside Malaysia RM 178,818,000 with gross dividend received RM 6,797,000
USA: RM 44,468,000. Singapore: RM 93,362,000. EU: RM 1,835,000. UK: RM 4,784,000. Austrlia: RM 6,045,000. HK: RM 23,373,000. Others: RM 4,951,000
Note: Inari, HoHup and DGSB quoted securities is considered as associate companies and not as investment in quoted share.
3: Technology & IT related services
The Group’s technology’s core activity is investment in high growth technology companies in three broad technology sectors namely electronics manufacturing services (“EMS”), financial transaction processing (“Fintech’) and bio-technology. The major investee companies in the respective tech sectors are Inari Amertron Berhad, Numoni Pte. Ltd. and Sengenics Corporation Pte. Ltd.
19.19% associated companies: Inari is involved in the Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (“OSAT”) industry for RF products and tailored EMS contract manufacturing to the semiconductor optoelectronic industry. As at 30 June 2018, Inari operates 12 plants situated in Malaysia, Philippines and China with total production floor space of over 1 million square feet.
42.6 % associated company: Numoni was originally formed to bring financial inclusion to the under-banked with its Cash-in Cash-out solutions. Numoni’s timing also coincided with rapid changes in the financial payment industry with the onset of mobile enabled financial technology (“Fintech”) during the last few years.
17.4% associate company: Sengenics is a functional proteomics company that was originally spun out from research that was originally carried out at Cambridge University in the UK. The company has a patented technology called KREX and has made good progress engaging world-renowned customers and collaborators that include top pharma, biotech companies and ivy league-class academic institutions in the USA, Europe and Asia as it expands its footprint in the biomarker industry.
The Group’s Technology segment, as in the past financial years, remains a key contributor to the Group’s profits and cash flows.
4: Retail trading and car rental
43.4 % associate: Melium Group is one of Malaysia’s leading retail group on international luxury fashion brands. It also owns and operates the Seminyak Village, a boutique mall in Bali that offers international brands along with the best of Bali’s home-grown labels.
Melium Group also holds the Malaysian franchise chain of Dome Café which operates in over 20 outlets in Klang Valley, Genting Highland, Johor and Penang.
Car rental
The Group’s car rental operations are carried out mainly by the 79.5 % subsidiaries of Insas Pacific Rent-A-Car (IPRAC), Roset Limousine Services Pte. Ltd and 63.2% Tribecar Pte. Ltd.
IPRAC offers the conventional self-drive and chauffeured services on short or long-term leases with its wide fleet of sedans, SUVs and MPVs. IPRAC’s headquarter is in Kuala Lumpur and it has 5 branches centered in the airports in KLIA 1, KLIA 2, Bayan Lepas, Johor Bahru, and Senai. During FY 2018, IPRAC consolidated its fleet operations and closed 5 non-performing branches located in Kuantan, Kota Kinabalu, Bintulu, Miri and Kuching.
Roset operates as a premium limousine service provider in Singapore with its current fleet of luxury premium sedans, SUVs and MPVs to cater for both long term and transient leases. Roset is now among the rapidly expanding independent automobile solutions provider in Singapore and it also provides premium chauffeured services with experienced professional drivers, fleet management as well as vehicle repairs and maintenance services that are equipped with the latest equipment and tools specialised for Japanese and Continental vehicles.
Tribecar’s innovative car rental system allows for ultra-short-term car rental on hourly basis and makes it convenient for customers as the registration, hiring and access to a vehicle are all done using the customer’s smart phone. Tribecar’s revenue in FY 2018 increased by more than 10 folds to RM15 million due to the flexibility and efficiency focused on innovation and strategies, and it managed to increase Tribecar’s edge in this highly competitive and fast change in the vehicle rental industry in Singapore.
5: Property investment and development: Value at RM 198,304,000
The Group’s property portfolio comprises a mix of landed and high-rise residential units and shops/office spaces held to generate rental income for resale and own usage (KL, Selangor, Perak, Pahang and Singapore). A 130 acres freehold vacant land at Bukit Tinggi Resort for development. Occupancy for the shops/office spaces remain encouraging with near full occupancy during FY 2018 whereas occupancy rate for the residential properties remained soft primarily due to the oversupply of residential properties in the Klang Valley.
12.2% associated company, Ho Hup Group has 3 core divisions ie. construction, property development and building materials. For FY 2018, Ho Hup’s property development arm, Bukit Jalil Development Sdn Bhd (BJD) continues to be the main profit contributor to Ho Hup Group, primarily derives income from its entitlement from the 50-acres joint venture development in Bukit Jalil, Kuala Lumpur and the development of the Aurora Place mix development project in Bukit Jalil. BJD also carried on with its new property development projects in Kulai and Kota Kinabalu.
Refer below link: Financial performance of Insas for the last 10 years.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3379.jsp?type=last10fy
With the core businesses in financial services in stock broking, trading and investment, it is natural that its revenue and earnings will be volatile:
Revenue for the last 10 years: RM ‘000. CAGR
|
341,246 |
347,945 |
272,723 |
406,802 |
276,520 |
297,324 |
235,376 |
235,861 |
423,287 |
241,865 |
3.90% |
Net profit to shareholder for the last 10 years: RM ‘000. CAGR
|
90,517 |
180,888 |
77,376 |
91,129 |
160,404 |
62,041 |
12,601 |
103,034 |
53,312 |
51,905 |
6.37% |
Net Worth for the last 10 years: RM ’000. CAGR
|
1,650,887 |
1,551,436 |
1,352,726 |
1,267,337 |
1,198,048 |
1,046,187 |
958,213 |
946,237 |
823,482 |
710,859 |
9.81% |
Per Share Value based on NOSH - 693,333,000 for the past 10 year: RM. CAGR
|
2.3811 |
2.2376 |
1.9510 |
1.8279 |
1.7280 |
1.5089 |
1.3820 |
1.3648 |
1.1877 |
1.0253 |
9.81% |
EPS based on NOSH - 693,333,000 for the last 10 years: sen. CAGR
|
13.06 |
26.09 |
11.16 |
13.14 |
23.14 |
8.95 |
1.82 |
14.86 |
7.69 |
7.49 |
6.37% |
Operating income has been positive for all the ten years, except of a very small negligible loss in 2012. The average operating income is decent at RM73.6m a year. Net income to shareholder has been higher and positive for the last 10 years, mainly due to equity accounted income from Inari and profit realization from the sales of some Inari shares, averaging RM88.32m, or 12.74 sen per share a year. Average EPS for the last 5 years was 17.32 sen base on NOSH - 693,333,000 or 18.1 sen base on 663,006,342 (EXCLUDING 30,327,291 TREASURY SHARE). At a price of 80 sen, the price of Insas was only 4.4 times its 5 years’ average earnings.
Financial Position of Insas
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annent/3379.jsp
With the persistent earnings every year, its book value increased every year without fail. From a book value of RM1.03 ten years ago, it has increased by a total of RM1.35 to RM 2.38 in 2018, or a high CAGR of 9.81% over the last 10 years. Coupled with a distribution of 6.3 sen in dividends, dividend share 1:50 and 1:25 there is indeed clear evidences that Insas’s management has been doing a fine job for increasing the value of shareholders.
Note: For financial end 30th June 2019 an interim dividend of 2 sen paid on 10th Jan 2019
Latest Insas financial report
Refer Insas’s latest q3 financial period ended 31 March 2019: https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/358668.jsp
Page 13: The segment analysis on the Group’s results for the financial period ended 31th March 2019:
- Financial services and credit & leasing: After-tax-profit RM 10,551,000
- Investment holding and trading: After-tax-profit RM (4,567,000)
- Technology and IT-related manufacturing, trading and services: After-tax-profit RM 54,027,000
- Retail trading and car rental After-tax-profit RM 2,224,000
- Property investment and development: After-tax-profit RM 1,957,000
Total: After-tax-profit RM 64,192,000 out of this share of profits less losses of associate companies is RM 34,215,000
Page 7:
Cash flows from operating activities: Interest received RM 13,859,000
Cash flow from investing activities: Dividend received RM 35,056,000
Note: 1 sen dividend from Inari is about RM 6m to Insas.
Conclusions
Insas is not your typical NTA (land and properties) play it is both assets value (liquid assets) and earning play.
Balance sheet on 31th March 2019: Total current assets 1,531,914,000 against Total liabilities 632,992,000 and total non-current assets 825,432,000.
Insas has an accounting net asset of RM2.59, net current asset of RM2.31. Most assets are made up of cash and cash equivalent, and other financial assets which are marked-to-market and can be readily converted to equivalent cash value. The difference in Inari market value (RM1.66 as on 16th July 2019) and book value of its associated companies, Inari and others (RM 428,986,000), could add an additional RM1.00 to the above values of Insas share. Insas is also a negative enterprise value company.
The investing thesis for Insas lies in its compelling assets value, which is way above its current market price. The share price of Insas is only a third of its accounting asset value, and less than a third of its conservative Graham net-net value. Moreover, the bulk of its assets are in liquid cash and cash equivalent and marked-to-market securities.
Besides, Insas has been profitable every year in the last 15 years or more, with average EPS for the last 5 years of 17.32 sen base on NOSH - 693,333,000 or 18.1 sen base on 663,006,342 (EXCLUDING 30,327,291 TREASURY SHARE). At 80 sen on 16th July 2019, the price is just 4.44 times normalized earnings. This itself already presents a good investing thesis based on earnings. Its associated 19.19% holding in Inari which has good growth prospects, and its other business sections remain profitable on average. Hence, there is no likelihood of cash burning in its businesses. Moreover, the management is seen to be actively pursue new businesses with the aim of improving the visibility and stability of its future earnings.
I see very little risk investing in this stock at this price at 80 sen. Insas remains a major stock in my portfolio.
Note:
The share price of Inari Amertron rose to all time high of adjusted price of RM2.53 on 9th Aug 2018 due to the exponential growth of its revenue and earnings. Shortly after that the US-China trade war fear came into play and post GE14, further exaggerated by the profit warning of Apple, its share price shed 34% and closed at RM1.66 on 16th July 2019. This gives the company a market capitalization of about RM5.28 billion. It is probably the largest semiconductor company in Malaysia in terms of market capitalization. For the past 5 year Inari had contribute a stable net profit/dividend to Insas and will continues to do so for many year to come.
I am sorry if many of you had given up on Insas as Insas had been known as undervalued stock in Bursa for many years, for me it was the recent exponential growth of Inari revenue and earnings that make Insas the most undervalued stock in Bursa. Insas major share holder Dato’ Sri Thong and his brother hold 32.96% hence unable to do much to push up the share price but recently according to theedgemarket article:
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/newsbreak-insas-controlling-sha...
Quote, “A few months ago, Kok Khee is said to have told a group of friends, “Insas is the most undervalued company on Bursa Malaysia, unquote” I believe Dato’ Sri Thong will do something about Insas share price.
Thank you.
Related Stocks
| Chart | Stock Name | Last | Change | Volume |
|---|
More articles on Sslee blog
CapitalA: Follow up email on “increase effective stake from 40% to 100% in Philippine Air Asia”
Created by Sslee | Sep 09, 2023
Follow up email to Bursa “A Happy Hari Merdeka Malaysia August 31 2023”
Created by Sslee | Aug 31, 2023
i3admin please take action on Mikecyc abusive and cyber sexual harassment comment
Created by Sslee | Jun 13, 2023
Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 50 of 59 comments
KYY formula is short term speculative play loh...!!
It does not provide u an anchor of margin of safety for u to bet very big on a single stock investment like insas loh...!!
U look at all the KYY stocks, ask yourself, which one, sustained base on test of time, the answer is none loh....!!
I think sslee way, has improved the investment odds alot mah....!!
Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 16, 2019 9:19 PM | Report Abuse
Focus on earning growth
KYY original formula
Don't be distracted
2019-07-16 21:28
Stock price always about earning and FCF. Not NTA or pile of cash that only director can enjoy. Unless they don't mind distribute it out as dividend then different story.
2019-07-16 21:30
The key of stock like insas moving up...u need to ask what is the kicker or catalyst for insas....the answer already found & it is coming very soon loh....!!
Posted by Negan > Jul 16, 2019 9:28 PM | Report Abuse
Both SsLee and KCChong are intelligent seniors! But i guess, if you only look at one angle, you missout on what makes stocks go up! Anyway, in bursa, one must open the eyes to know why stocks move! Not continue to be hard headed and stick to unworkable formula! Just a friendly advise! Anyway, i really enjoy SsLee articles!
2019-07-16 21:31
Although i agree, but do not completely totally on earnings loh...!!
U new a package a combination to ensure the stock growth & appreciation is healthy mah...!
Posted by shpg22 > Jul 16, 2019 9:30 PM | Report Abuse
Stock price always about earning and FCF. Not NTA or pile of cash that only director can enjoy. Unless they don't mind distribute it out as dividend then different story.
2019-07-16 21:35
Similar problem with TA. All these co. don't look after shareholders. They are miserable when it comes to paying div to shareholders. They perceive the co. belongs to their grandfathers and accumulate cash and the balance sheet looks great!. This puts off most investors. Incidentally, has the writer accumulated enough of Insas shares and hopes the man in the street will take the bait for him to exit.
2019-07-16 21:41
KYY formula not wrong
But he himself mess up the implementation Loh
Posted by stockraider > Jul 16, 2019 9:28 PM | Report Abuse
U look at all the KYY stocks, ask yourself, which one, sustained base on test of time, the answer is none loh....!!
I think sslee way, has improved the investment odds alot mah....!!
2019-07-16 21:44
Ask yourself loh...IF TA does not have this weaknesses or problem like u said, do u think TA will trade at such a huge discount leh ??
Ask yourself, what it takes for TA to correct the current weaknesses or problem mah ??...if u find soon...u already have identified the kicker or catalyst mah.....!
Posted by pputeh > Jul 16, 2019 9:41 PM | Report Abuse
Similar problem with TA. All these co. don't look after shareholders. They are miserable when it comes to paying div to shareholders. They perceive the co. belongs to their grandfathers and accumulate cash and the balance sheet looks great!. This puts off most investors. Incidentally, has the writer accumulated enough of Insas shares and hopes the man in the street will take the bait for him to exit.
2019-07-16 21:47
I m not saying KYY wrong loh....!!
KYY his using guerilla warfare loh....!!
U cannot fight a huge conventional war, using his method, without high risk of getting caught loh....!!
Sslee method are sustained defensive investment strategy loh...!!
Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 16, 2019 9:44 PM | Report Abuse
KYY formula not wrong
But he himself mess up the implementation Loh
Posted by stockraider > Jul 16, 2019 9:28 PM | Report Abuse
U look at all the KYY stocks, ask yourself, which one, sustained base on test of time, the answer is none loh....!!
I think sslee way, has improved the investment odds alot mah....!!
2019-07-16 21:50
I don punt armada, i position big in armada...using the same principle of margin of safety like how i invest in insas also loh...!!
Also i m riding on big wave of turnaround on this battered stock loh..!!
I m expecting more than 100% return loh...!!
Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 16, 2019 9:56 PM | Report Abuse
Come raiders let's punt some armada
Drag your sslee with you
2019-07-16 22:00
last time there was leno cat who keep screaming CANTEEEEEEEK!!...just like the mad Khatulistiwa in Lionind forum....
but price never move anywhere
hope sslee and raider wont get infected with the same 'paralyzing virus'...causing one to become a broken record
2019-07-16 22:16
What happen to that stupid cat ??
Posted by probability > Jul 16, 2019 10:16 PM | Report Abuse
last time there was leno cat who keep screaming CANTEEEEEEEK!!...just like the mad Khatulistiwa in Lionind forum....
but price never move anywhere
hope sslee and raider wont get infected with the same 'paralyzing virus'...causing one to become a broken record
2019-07-16 22:17
over the last 10 years, Insas only has traded above RM1 for only a few months in 2014 and a brief period in 2017，stock price has spoken loud & clear，it's a value trap neither a wise investment nor deep value investment，you won't get even half of its nta，market don't price it low for no reason.
those empty handed better don't get burn by this value trap，those stuck in high price may have to consider sell when rebound hit resistance to cut & move on.
how many stocks has gone up over five folds in bursamalaysia over the last ten years, why buy insas，in stock markets hold on with the right & must act fast to cut the wrong.
2019-07-16 23:11
Dear all,
Thank for sharing your view and even your experience that Insas is value trap as price never move anywhere and market don't price it low for no reason hence Mr. Market must always be right.
My question: Mr. Market what mental models or human behaviors at play in buying Inari at RM1.66 when you can use the same capital to buy 2.075 Insas share at 80 cents and hold indirectly 1.90 Inari share and all the cash and cash equivalent and all the other Insas business?
Everyone agreed on the value part and the trap part the question now is how to unlock the value?
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/198128.jsp
You can find some speculation answers on how the value of Insas could be unlocked from above blog. And as minority shareholder you can do a little bit of shareholder activism, ask questions and request your reasonable demand.
Thank you.
2019-07-17 00:34
because of the value–trap image, insas is selling so cheap ,i dont mind as i am still collecting
2019-07-17 05:22
i m keeping for the long term , i have a feeling it will go up most propably begining of 2020
2019-07-17 05:26
i dont know much about Insas investing philosophy...but i know the best time to sell is when maximum attention is given to this stock...this precious opportunity knocks once in a blue moon
2019-07-18 13:09
Examples of value traps for investors who only use NTA as a single metric to buy a stock instead of understanding the business and its competitive advantage:
Company name share value / net worth
1. Parkson Holdings 279 million / 2,113 million
2. AsianPac holdings 140 million / 1,501 million
3. Protasco Bhd 136 million / 334 million
4. Talam Transform 172 million / 380 million
5. Nami holdings 462 million / 1,250 million
6. Sapura Energy 4,893 million / 13,865 million
7. Bumi Armada 1,352 million / 3,346 million
8. INSAS Bhd 551 million / 1,717 million
The first thing to notice is that
a) I spent 5 minutes on the internet to find some very good deals. All seem very undervalued, by simple metrics.
b) The second question you ask your self is all the NTA the same thing? Each business is subtly different, and its assets are classified differently (which surprisingly is valued by the company and friendly valuers, and audited robustly). IT is not an exact science, and judgement call needs to be made by the prospective investor on the INTRINSIC VALUE OF THE ASSET.
c) In case of any incongruity of the intrinsic value, one must rely on cash flow generation and estimation in the years to come instead of relying merely on the accounting numbers of the "net assets", as evidenced from item 6 and item 7, where the value of the assets are valued at 13bilion and 3 billion, however they can't find anybody to buy their assets. If that is the case, what is the REAL INTRINSIC VALUE?
d) For INSAS, if stated value if 551 million, and the gap is 1.7 billion, and this "temporary difference in INTRINSIC VALUE" has been going on for a very long time, one must make a good judgment call and understand the difference between a value trap and undervalued stock to see if the price will rise to meet the difference in the future.
e) Only one true way has been shown to work: a company that uses the minimum amount of debt and produces a good amount of cash flow and earnings will have their share price guaranteed to increase. Not via stated value of the assets (versus real world demand for those assets). This way has been shown to work for a very long time, and why asianpac cannot be valued (in fact ALL property developers) at NTA alone.
Hope you learned something.
>>>>>
What is a Value Trap
A value trap is a stock that appears to be cheap because the stock has been trading at low valuation metrics such as multiples of earnings, cash flow or book value for an extended time period. Such a stock attracts investors who are looking for a bargain because they seem inexpensive relative to historical valuation multiples of the stock or relative to the prevailing overall market multiple. The trap springs when investors buy into the company at low prices and the stock continues to languish or drop further.
BREAKING DOWN Value Trap
Successful in prior years with rising profits and a healthy share price, a company can fall into a situation where it is unable to generate revenue and profit growth due to shifts in competitive dynamics, lack of new products or services, rising production and operating costs, or ineffective management. For the investor who is used to seeing a certain valuation of the stock, a seemingly "cheap" price becomes interesting. However, it becomes a value trap to the investor if no material improvements are made in the company's competitive stance, its ability to innovate, its ability to contain costs, and management by the executives.
As with any investment decision, thorough research and evaluation is recommended before investing in any company that appears cheap on the basis of conventional valuation metrics.
2019-07-18 16:26
Dear Philip,
Quote: b) The second question you ask your self is all the NTA the same thing? Each business is subtly different, and its assets are classified differently (which surprisingly is valued by the company and friendly valuers, and audited robustly). IT is not an exact science, and judgement call needs to be made by the prospective investor on the INTRINSIC VALUE OF THE ASSET, unquote.
All the NTA is different: agreed
1. Capex (PPE) on borrowing money that only increase the top line but bottom line lower than the cost of borrowing is a slow killer, like illicit drug give you the instant high but killing you slowly from the inside,
2. Real estate of properties/land that cannot generates income greater than its maintenance, staffs, utilities, quit rent and etc is a liability to company not asset.
So tell me in INSAS case how you value:
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/358668.jsp
As at As at 31/03/2019 30/06/2018 RM
Current assets
Property development costs: 10,497,000
Inventories: 12,513,000
Trade receivables: 431,898,000
Amount due from associate companies: 94,468,000
Other receivables, deposits and prepayments: 63,688,000
Financial assets at amortised cost: 2,292,000
Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss: 245,640,000
Tax recoverable: 2,608,000
Deposits with licensed banks and financial institutions: 553,678,000
Cash and bank balances: 114,632,000
Total current assets 1,531,914,000
Note under trade receivable: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/6218041 As of 30th June 2019, ICL has outstanding loans portfolio of RM267.455 million which are fully collateralized and unsecured corporate loans RM30.162 million generating interest income to the Group. The interest rate charged by ICL is in accordance with the Moneylending Act, which is not more than 12% p.a.for secured loans and not more than 18% p.a.for unsecured loans
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment: 157,249,000
Investment properties: 185,059,000
Financial assets at fair value through other comprehensive income: 22,159,000
Financial assets at amortised cost: 3,077,000
Jointly controlled entity: 22,000
Associate companies: 428,986,000
Intangible assets: 26,058,000 (broking and money lending license)
Deferred tax assets 2,822,000
Total non-current assets: 825,432,000
The segment analysis on the Group’s results for the financial period ended 31th March 2019:
1. Financial services and credit & leasing: After-tax-profit RM 10,551,000 (After paying staffs salary , Overhead and BOD remuneration)
2. Investment holding and trading: After-tax-profit RM (4,567,000)
3. Technology and IT-related manufacturing, trading and services: After-tax-profit RM 54,027,000
4. Retail trading and car rental: After-tax-profit RM 2,224,000
5. Property investment and development: After-tax-profit RM 1,957,000
Total: After-tax-profit RM 64,192,000 out of this share of profits less losses of associate companies is RM 34,215,000
Cash flows from operating activities: Interest received RM 13,859,000
Cash flow from investing activities: Dividend received RM 35,056,000
Note: 1 sen dividend from Inari is about RM 6m to Insas cash inflow.
Am I right to say, I need to sell 2 Insas shares (2x 80 sen) to buy 1 Inari (RM 1.60). I just prefer to hold 2 insas share thus indirectly owned 1.8 Inari share, all the cash and cash equivalent and all the other Insas business rather than holding directly 1 Inari share?
So you make your own conclusion:
Quote: e) Only one true way has been shown to work: a company that uses the minimum amount of debt and produces a good amount of cash flow and earnings will have their share price guaranteed to increase. Not via stated value of the assets (versus real world demand for those assets). This way has been shown to work for a very long time, unquote”
Thank you
2019-07-18 18:08
How I value INSAS? At 80 cents I am still not buying a single share of INSAS. Meaning I value INSAS far below your NTA of 1.7 billion.
Why? I can never fire current management 33% ownership who make stupid decisions after 1 good decision in inari to put money into sengenics, vigcash, hohup, omesti, dgsb, fintec etc ( things which not even sslee will buy).
I can never get a ever growing dividend from INSAS ( where is growing earnings and profits future coming from? After you kill golden goose inari from 40% to 20% to 0% transfer out cash into cash burning business line sengenics and vigcash and numoni and tribecar( JV with frauds to transfer money out from public to private hands), where will you get future revenue and earnings? No clarity on future earnings and profit meaning no future growth prospects.
At what stage will I buy INSAS?
1. After change of new management, trigger MIGO to show financial capability, then start selling non performing business units like melium, sengenics and numoni.
2. Use earnings and dividends to grow m&a business, revamp website and operational software, increase team to grow investing and IPO arm.
3. Stop investing in startups and instead target on taking over cash generating profitable business run by well run management seeking a good home for their business.
4. Reduce their revenues and profits from one off sources and increase revenues and earnings from consistent cash flow sources with a huge moat
2019-07-18 19:43
Your way of thinking is still very immature. If it were that simple you can buy any of the above "undervalue" share and keep the billions of unrealised value.
The answer to that is the same reason why you would rather buy shares in ICAP fund than the ICAP business itself.
If you hold inari shares you get the dividends directly.
If you hold INSAS shares, you get the possibility of getting inari dividends, and no collective right.
If INSAS management decided to waste that money by giving it to a Mongolian company to start a vigsys business and burn/piss/waste all of the dividend money from inari, there is nothing you can do about it.
REMEMBER, YOU ARE A MINORITY SHAREHOLDER.
EVEN IF YOU DO NOT AFTER WITH THE BUSINESS DECISIONS OF INSAS MANAGEMENT, THERE IS ZERO CHANGES YOU CAN DO TO THEM.
THAT IS WHY INSAS IS VALUED AT 80 CENTS.
Not for whatever reasons you highlighted.
In same vein
If you were put money into ICAP, you would get zero returns, unless tan teng boo decided to do share buybacks or declare dividends.
Your logic is not flawed, but it is incomplete.
YOU REFUSE TO SEE THE FULL PICTURE, BUT ONLY WHAT YOU CHOOSE TO BELIEVE.
>>>>>>>
Am I right to say, I need to sell 2 Insas shares (2x 80 sen) to buy 1 Inari (RM 1.60). I just prefer to hold 2 insas share thus indirectly owned 1.8 Inari share, all the cash and cash equivalent and all the other Insas business rather than holding directly 1 Inari share?
2019-07-18 20:17
Pchem crash? How many percent down? It's a discount day nothing else.
PIC is still intact, and the "crash" is not backed by any announced results only analysts opinions ( like you).
Company fundamentals is still intact.
You are probably too young to understand the difference between temporary volatility and a permanent deterioration of business fundamentals.
Thank God for idiots like you, otherwise how to make money?
2019-07-18 21:37
Hahahaha
deMusangking, the past is baggage and the future is burden. Recommend you to read: The Power of Now. Live in the present a spiritual journey to find their true and deepest self and reach the ultimate in personal growth and spirituality: the discovery of truth and light.
https://www.amazon.com/Power-Now-Guide-Spiritual-Enlightenment/dp/1577314808
2019-07-19 18:09
Dear all,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/215832.jsp
My response to Philip comment
2019-07-19 18:09
I like margin of safety
But margin of safety based on earning, not margin of safety based on asset play
2019-07-20 13:05
Based on discounted cashflow & Net Present Value....all investment should be converted to bond like return for comparison loh...!!
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 20, 2019 1:04 PM | Report Abuse
margin of safety like buying bonds... get bond rates only.
2019-07-20 13:06
Insas has both margin safety on assets and margin of safety on earnings mah....!!
But it does not have speculative earnings growth like QL loh..!!
Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 20, 2019 1:05 PM | Report Abuse
I like margin of safety
But margin of safety based on earning, not margin of safety based on asset play
2019-07-20 13:09
How much is your returns from this investment concept raider? Your are line a college teacher talking daily about efficient market theory and teaching graduate students.
But your real life results do not jive with your margin of safety concept.
Arguing for arguing sake. How much money did you make practising this concept in your stockpicking?
Did you buy more hengyuan at rm18, rm15,rm10,rm8 when your opinion of "margin of safety" of hengyuan at pe10, pe15 was rm35-rm50.
Did you enjoy your returns then?
2019-07-20 13:26
What KC says are valid downside of insas loh...!!
But right here i m not saying an outsider trying to unlock value on insas, but the insider owner trying to maximise value on insas and the consequence he indirectly unlocking value mah....!!
The key to this happen is the expiry of insas warrant in 20-2-2020 loh....!!
They is a high chance mkt will rerate too loh...!!
AS USUAL IF U WANT TO BUYOUT THE COMPANY, U WILL RATHER KEEP SHARE PRICE LOW MAH....THATS WHY THE MINORITY SHAREHOLDER FRUSTRATED LOH...!!
THUS INSAS INVESTOR JUST NEED TO BE PATIENT LOH...!!
KC COMMENT,
Conclusions
Deep value investing is not easy. It requires patience, and a lot of patience. It is not for the faint hearted. Insas has been undervalued for a long time. A catalyst may be required to unlock the value. Fund managers and institutional investors will not be able to endure it as they will be long fired by their investors before value is unlocked due to their temporary under-performance. Most individual investors also have no stomach for it. They will be laughed at by others embarking in this strategy as it does look stupid at times. But if a stock is way undervalued, not only by 10%, 20%, or even 50%, but a much larger discount such as 72% as that of Insas, the probability of success is higher. Of course, nothing is certain in this world. But at least the chance of losing money is very slim as the extreme cheapness and quality assets would have taken care of this. Insas has also been providing satisfactory return over the years, and it is likely continue to do so even if the deep value is not unlocked.
Take care of the downside, let the upside takes care of itself.
What we are afraid of is if the value takes a long time to unlock, value may erode, such as in a business with persistence huge losses, burning cash in its operations, or management embarking on overvalued acquisitions, or squander away the cash it has, failed business ventures, or other shareholder value destroying activities. I my opinion, Insas does not belong to this category. Having different stocks with different return drivers in a diversified portfolio is also a smart strategy in investing.
2019-07-20 13:27
I DON LIKE TO BOAST...THE LAST TIME I BRAG,REMEMBER YOUR RESPONSE VERY BAD LOH...!
I WILL RATHER FOCUS ON INSAS POTENTIAL LOH....!!
Posted by (S=QR) Philip > Jul 20, 2019 1:26 PM | Report Abuse
How much is your returns from this investment concept raider? Your are line a college teacher talking daily about efficient market theory and teaching graduate students.
But your real life results do not jive with your margin of safety concept.
Arguing for arguing sake. How much money did you make practising this concept in your stockpicking?
Did you buy more hengyuan at rm18, rm15,rm10,rm8 when your opinion of "margin of safety" of hengyuan at pe10, pe15 was rm35-rm50.
Did you enjoy your returns then?
2019-07-20 13:30
YES AVOID REDCHIPS STOCK BCOS THEIR ACCOUNTING BOOKS IS IN DOUBT, BUT NOT INSAS....BCOS U CAN SEE & SMELL VALUE ...RIGHT IN FRONT OF U MAH...!!
DO NOT MISS OPPORTUNITY...AS USUAL U NEED TO DO DUE DILIGENCE LOH..!!
SSLEE HAS DONE ALOT OF HARDWORK FOR US ALL LOH...!!
Posted by lizi > Jul 20, 2019 1:32 PM | Report Abuse
veteran investor used to say to me....avoid red chip stocks....and insas..lol
2019-07-20 13:36
IF SSLEE CHOSE TO BE TRAPPED WITH INSAS WARRANT...IT IS DEFINITELY A CALCULATED RISK IN HIS FAVOR MAH...!!
Posted by deMusangking > Jul 20, 2019 1:38 PM | Report Abuse
SSLEE HAS DONE ALOT OF HARDWORK FOR US ALL LOH...!! ????
sslee is also trapped in warrants???!!!!!!
haha
2019-07-20 13:40
due diligence?? long time already done loh......value trap confirmed....avoid...
2019-07-20 13:41
don't lie to yourself lah...if share move to RM1.00, all sell like no tomorrow....no one will wait for whatever value they claim
2019-07-20 13:43
But right here i m not saying an outsider trying to unlock value on insas, but the insider owner trying to maximise value on insas and the consequence he indirectly unlocking value mah....!!
The key to this happen is the expiry of insas warrant in 20-2-2020 loh....!!
They is a high chance mkt will rerate too loh...!!
AS USUAL IF U WANT TO BUYOUT THE COMPANY, U WILL RATHER KEEP SHARE PRICE LOW MAH....THATS WHY THE MINORITY SHAREHOLDER FRUSTRATED LOH...!!
THUS INSAS INVESTOR JUST NEED TO BE PATIENT LOH...!!
Posted by lizi > Jul 20, 2019 1:41 PM | Report Abuse
due diligence?? long time already done loh......value trap confirmed....avoid...
2019-07-20 13:44
i m a very panlai investor not a salesman mah....!!
Posted by deMusangking > Jul 20, 2019 2:13 PM | Report Abuse
stockraider ... u r a lousy salesman!!!!!
inspite of ur big banners everri where, yours sales are not improving!!!!!!!
better find another job lah!!!!
hahaha
2019-07-20 14:15
Post a Comment
Featured Posts
Don't Miss Out: Up to USD1,000 in Our Lucky Draw!
Apps
Top Articles
1
save malaysia!
Malaysia set to become hub for AI development and innovation
2
CEO Morning Brief
3
5
6
7
#
Stock
Score
Daily Stocks
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Featured Advertisers / Partners
Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Sslee
Dear Icon8888,
Agreed: Focus on earning growth
KYY original formula
Don't be distracted.
But also need to look at Balance Sheet otherwise will end like JAKS and SENDAI.
Thank you
2019-07-16 21:28