股海無涯
【Airasia】對最近暴跌和下星期業績的一些淺見 |股海無涯
股海無涯
Publish date: Thu, 25 Aug 2016, 04:47 PM
股海無涯
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依般若波羅蜜多故 心無罣礙 無罣礙故 無有恐怖 遠離顛倒夢想 究竟涅槃
投資如修行，心态很重要。
【股海无涯】投資事件簿，
記錄投資路上的是非成敗
http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
投資如修行，心态很重要。
【股海无涯】投資事件簿，
記錄投資路上的是非成敗
http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
AAX出業績之後, FB Page就突然有好多股友pm我聊聊彼此對AA的看法,
主要是擔心會有什麼"意外業績"
按以上推算, 以下是我的粗略估算:
PBT 估計(樂觀) 399m Profit
PBT 估計(悲觀) 202m Profit
由於deffered Tax 的估算牽扯太多內部Accounting Method and Timing, 所以這裡就不去猜測了.
不過我認為不會太難看.
原因?
7月-8月間AA管理層美國英國投行跑了15天的Roadshow與各大投行見面,
股價也在當時上漲,
外資持股衝上60%.
8月初, 回到Malaysia, 又繼續見了當地投行,
個投行連續給出了新高Price Target, 3.4 - 4.65
Quater Report的Accounting Period是1/4/2016-30/6/2016,
也就是說, 在Roadshow和投行的Presentation之前, AA Management是已知Q2業績的概況的.
因此我的預測是偏向樂觀. 甚至超越我的樂觀預測(如果有Deffered Tax或者其他Special Item)
Twitter 上,在公佈業績之前, Tony對AAX隻字未提, 也是之前我對AAX業績預測相對保留的原因
在July 10之前, Tony在Roadshow之前表明Airasia 2nd Quater Result Looking Good
當然, Looking Good的標準和散戶的期望也許有差距.
對於4-500m, 個人認為已經是Fantastic Result了,2-300m也算能接受,
看到有些散戶竟然預測800m-1b, 我只能表示他們太看得起Airasia
至於, 200-400m之間的業績, 市場給出的Valuation是2.5還是3.5, 我暫時到不是特別關心.
我關心的是兩件長期和短期的事:
1. 長期: 我對大航空時代的基本預測是否正確:
【大航空時代】第一章: 群雄割據到三國鼎立 http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/06/blog-post.html
【大航空时代】第二章: 天空的界限 http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/06/blog-post_8.html
【大航空时代】第三章: 龍與象的崛起 http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/06/blog-post_11.html
原油的寒冬： 为什么接下來10年我選擇避開油氣股 http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/04/10.html
暫時來看, 預測和大方向都還準確. 所以暫時沒有賣出的打算.
當然, 這是以我根據個人心裡, 風險估算,承擔能力, 投資時間等所做的個人決定,
每位投資者環境背景投資方式不同, 對於價值的評估自然也有不同, 在此尊重所有不同聲音.
2. 短期: AAC的脫手和脫手價格. 這件事是本地Roadshow過後各投行口中異口同聲說出, 可信度很高. 最近Tune Group延長了1b附加股購買的期限, 個人覺得和等待AAC脫手可能有關連, 希望年底之前有好消息.
總結:
很多FB Page的朋友問我對Airasia的Target Price, 小弟不才, 能力不足, 真的給不出.
我都是這麼告訴他們我的看法:
以前AA是MAA一個人含辛茹苦養育TAA, IAA, PAA, AAI, JAA, 一個人母親單獨撫養5個孩子
現在是TAA畢業了, 有工作能力了, 母親+大哥撫養 4個孩子
明年, 如果IAA, PAA能在這個低油價時代在年底或者明年畢業呢?
將來, 如果5個孩子來撫養MAA這個母親呢?
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今天的Tony 的 Twitter |
從2013年持有AA到如今, 2.6跌到0.8我都沒賣出, 現在當然不會做傻事, 現在和2-3年前暴跌前的股價2.8比起來, 公司如今整體的發展和進步, 現金流,平衡表, 展望, 根本不可同日而語了....
3年來只contra賣出過2000股, 這究竟是一個笑話, 還是神話?
各位朋友就讓我繼續發大航空時代的夢吧...
卍 個人分析記錄 買賣盈虧自負 分析若有錯誤 勞煩提點指出
Facebook PAGE: https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
股海無涯 Blog: http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
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Discussions
6 people like this. Showing 38 of 38 comments
icon8888, u jus my sifu, this template inspire by u, is much easy to read compare to my previous excel template
2016-08-25 17:49
Awesome! 非常有逻辑和工整的细节，生动及深入。股海Sifu, 相信你的暂时没有“买“的打算， 是“卖”的意思。我确实是看了你AAX的分析，考虑是合理的情况在AAX 0.475 卖去。再昨天买进AIRASIA. 我们就拭目以待，30号的成绩。
2016-08-25 19:11
股海 Sifu very chun in AAX prediction, really respect him. This one also a good and logic analysis.
2016-08-25 20:54
GU Hai sifu..
You kena hit jackpot already. I saw paper plane praise you. Seem like u will hit jackpot this year..let say 56 million ringgit prize
2016-08-25 20:58
so many good articles recently ... really appreciated that learn from those sifu ... good job
2016-08-25 21:07
dehouse111, thx for remind, just notice many typo between 買 and 賣... all bro, pls dun call me sifu, later prediction wrong very malu.... and i know i am not up to it
2016-08-25 21:11
股海师傅，
pls don't adopt Duit sifu, unless he surrender his Smart Scanner to me.
one says; in order to learn new thing must throw out old stuff first :)
2016-08-25 21:25
Duitscanner lar .
Then, i'll be your student.
Eventually, became the cucu murid of 股海师傅 .
2016-08-25 21:33
股海 Sifu , no problem and you and Icon8888 are just deep enough as Sifu. By the way, you can tell others it's worth of RM6 if there's anyone ask you on the value of Airasia.
'AirAsia said the fair value of the company's stock should be at least 6 ringgit a share after including the market value of AirAsia'
http://www.reuters.com/article/airasia-leasing-idUSL3N1B62TM
2016-08-25 21:50
This Tony better don't talk so much. If he wants to sell Leasing, just do it, otherwise keep quiet
2016-08-25 21:53
我倒和你看法不同…同是买进0.80-0.90…原本要卖出@2.0，却遇到猪嘴出闸，立马反客为主加吗再加吗，结果飞到3.1-3.2才一次性清货。你就继续谈你恋爱呗。今天看到猪嘴再出闸谈aax,待会立马买进…0.395越低就越买…要买亚航股就靠猪嘴多多益善！！：）
2016-08-26 08:43
Hahah
Good that u recognized my good work. Many say I know how to shoot ppl only. Now I show you my PLP skill. I think snake also can bend with me later
2016-08-26 22:04
This author is true master. Whatever people said he won't care, he is focus on result!
2016-08-26 23:39
股海, how is your opinion on this result, as this 342M doesn't include the profit from associates. The net profit including the associate should be around RM15M additonal.
2016-08-29 20:11
result is not bad from my personal perspective.... anyway, total cost slightly higher compare to my estimation. let wish the best on Q3...
2016-08-29 22:17
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
paperplane2016
wow! great article!
2016-08-25 16:55