股海無涯
【Airasia】對最近暴跌和下星期16Q3業績的一些看法 | 股海無涯
股海無涯
Publish date: Fri, 18 Nov 2016, 12:51 PM
股海無涯
0 97
依般若波羅蜜多故 心無罣礙 無罣礙故 無有恐怖 遠離顛倒夢想 究竟涅槃
投資如修行，心态很重要。
【股海无涯】投資事件簿，
記錄投資路上的是非成敗
http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
投資如修行，心态很重要。
【股海无涯】投資事件簿，
記錄投資路上的是非成敗
http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
Estimate:
Net Operating Profit: 563m
PAT: 329m
EPS: 11.8 Cents
以上是较为保守的估算,
主要是因为现在局势有点抓不清. 既然是预测还是保守点好.
实际业绩出炉业绩优于预估的可能性觉得还是很高的
预测方式有兴趣的朋友可参考上一篇关于AAX的预测, 里面有较为详细的提到我预测的一些标准, http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/11/aax16q3.html
Hedge & Deffered tax反映在Report里的时间点基本上没有依据可循, 基本上都是靠大概猜的. Exchange Loss估计在150m-200m左右
泰国Q3业绩是已经出炉的, 按31/9的汇率, 也就38m左右.
这个业绩稍微比我的期望来的差. 不过属于可接受范围.
印尼和菲律宾估计持平, 这里预测小小盈利.
总结:
就个人来说, 是不错的业绩, Exchange Loss不在控制范围, 也没办法.
除去Exchange Loss的影响, 明年竞争格局没有太大改变, 还能保持这样的成绩, 估计2017 EPS会在50-70cents 左右, 也就是说以现在2.6左右的价格, PE只是4-5x
而且还未考量AAC的影响.
当然, AAC本身也有不确定性存在.
个人来说暂时没有卖出的打算.
最近的大跌除了Exchange loss对未来业绩预期的影响,
另外一个主要原因外资担心资本管制和汇差对于他们的影响
不要忘了AA有56%是持有在外资手里, 除了业绩和公司本身发展, 外资投行对于我国的资金自由流动性和汇率涨跌是非常敏感的.
看看这几天Bursa公布的外资卖出幅度, 也不难了解AA大跌的原因了.
至于本地投资者是否有必要随外资起舞, 然后再低价杀入,
毕竟投资风格各有所爱, 这里就不予置评了.
卍 個人分析記錄 買賣盈虧自負 分析若有錯誤 勞煩提點指出
Facebook PAGE: https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
股海無涯 Blog: http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
Related Stocks
| Chart | Stock Name | Last | Change | Volume |
|---|
Market Buzz
2024-11-01
CAPITALA2024-11-01
CAPITALA2024-11-01
CAPITALA2024-10-28
CAPITALA2024-10-28
CAPITALA2024-10-28
CAPITALA2024-10-25
CAPITALA2024-10-25
CAPITALA
2024-10-24
CAPITALA2024-10-24
CAPITALA2024-10-24
CAPITALA2024-10-24
CAPITALA2024-10-24
CAPITALA2024-10-24
CAPITALA2024-10-24
CAPITALA2024-10-24
CAPITALA2024-10-24
CAPITALA2024-10-23
CAPITALAMore articles on 股海無涯
Discussions
8 people like this. Showing 11 of 11 comments
Good Article and analysis股海無涯.
Hope your estimation are accurate like Q2.
2016-11-18 17:15
this estimation main for myself, so i try to make it more conservative to provide margin of safety.
if you talk about accuracy, i should said 450m will more close to the final result, after factor in deffer tax and Excg gain frm assosiate
2016-11-18 18:23
好奇的是， 如过， 2015 Q3,的飞机数量是81台， staffcost 是（179），那么2016Q3 的 飞机数量是 77 台， staff cost是 （240）。 那么， 员工成本的提升是那个方面？ 愿股海兄赐教
2016-11-18 21:50
http://www.airasia.com/my/en/about-us/ir-operating-statistics.page
最新的operating statistic都會註明飛機數,
80臺減少77臺主要是2臺通過AAC租給日本airasia, 預備明年Q1的launch.
雖然飛機數減少, 可以看到載客量, RPK都是增加的,
人手增加+員工加薪, staff cost 增加也屬正常,
不過上季度有點飆升的感覺, 不過還在接受範圍內. staff cost我是按上季度來Estimate的
2016-11-18 22:51
Lse2016, thx for your comment and i am flatter,
i really dunno i have such power to move Huge counter with over 10m volumn jus by single simple estimation.
anyway, my estimation on AAX is not accurate,
tht is wht i should admit
and learn from my mistake
and improve next time =D
Cheers!
2016-11-24 19:16
Post a Comment
Featured Posts
Latest Videos
MQ Trading Signals
Time
Signal
Duration
Type
2024-11-01 16:50:00
EMA 5
10 Mins
BUY
2024-11-01 16:50:00
EMA 5
5 Mins
BUY
2024-11-01 16:45:00
EMA 5
5 Mins
SELL
2024-11-01 16:35:00
EMA 5
5 Mins
BUY
2024-11-01 16:25:00
EMA 5
5 Mins
SELL
Apps
Top Articles
1
2
3
4
save malaysia!
6
7
BFM Podcast
8
BFM Podcast
#
Stock
Score
Daily Stocks
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Featured Advertisers / Partners
Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
meathere
Good sharing.
All in all, we have to see how 16Q3 result stack up to current local n global sentiments and play. Some will play wait and see game till the result, while others expect the 'big mama' sale to be the pivotal turning point.
2016-11-18 13:07