Banking - 3Q2012 results review and outlook

kiasutrader

Publish date: Fri, 30 Nov 2012, 09:16 AM

The 3Q12 reporting period has been somewhat uninspiring for the market with almost all the banks that reported results announcing them within our expectations. The interest income of the banks was flat while their capital market revenue deteriorated from the high seen in 1H12. The flat interest income growth was due to margin pressure and a softer loan demand in 3Q12. The 're-balancing' of the lending portfolio landscape on the domestic front is taking place at a measured pace. Meanwhile, the overall moderate quarterly profit growth in 3Q12 in the sector was due to the better credit cost charges at the banks.

Trends noted from the 3Q2012 reporting season:

Net profit ' The 3Q12 results for Malaysian banks were mostly in line with the consensus and our own expectations. Much like the earlier quarter, the lower than expected credit cost was the typically earnings driver amid the slower top line growth. The results for dark horses picks, namely, AFFIN and BIMB, were above expectations while the performance of the other banks under our coverage (MAYBANK, CIMB, PBBANK, HLBANK, AMMB, AFG and RHBCAP) was in line. The cumulative year-to-date earnings grew by 15.6% YoY.

Credit demand, net interest income and margins - The domestic loan growth was broadly in line with expectations during the reporting season judging from the data reported in the monthly BNM statistics. We are seeing more evidence that the Responsible Lending Guidelines (RLG) by BNM is already bringing changes to the banking industry arena.

Earnings have been affected by the implementation of the RLG and this has also hurt credit demands leading to a weaker NIM in 3Q2012. In the absence of robust growth in the consumer sub-segments i.e. mortgages, hire-purchase and credit cards and amidst the margin compression in this segment, banks have been moving more towards the financing of ETP-related infrastructure projects instead.

The margins earned have also continued to face headwinds due to 1) the intensified asset pricing to capture market shares; 2) the ongoing deposit competitions and the movement of the deposit mix towards the more expensive term deposit and 3) a higher funding cost with the increase in sub-debts. We see further signs of softness here without a rate hike. Margins of the banks could thus continue to face headwinds in 4Q2012.

Non-interest income 'This segment experienced a material contraction. The softer equity trading conditions have persisted in the short term due to the ongoing global economic uncertainty. All the banks saw a material decline in their market revenues in 3QCY12 largely due to the volatility caused by the phenomenon above. For example, in 3Q2012, both AMMB & MAYBANK saw substantial hits to their capital market incomes, although they still managed to deliver overall earnings within the consensus estimates. Meanwhile, the robust investment gains from the volatile forex market and the shift of the yield curve in the debt capital market were the revenues drivers for CIMB and HLBANK.

We currently expect the softer trading conditions to persist in the short term. However, if the markets do recover to a more conductive environment later in the future on possible year-end window dressing activities, we are of the view that MAYBANK and CIMB should see the biggest recovery in their non-interest income earnings among the banks.

Cost ' Generally, banks are now much more disciplined in cost management. However, the sector's expenses have grown faster mainly due to CIMB's integration of the RBS Asia franchise. The group booked in a RM30m-RM40m one-off integration cost as 50% of the RBS franchise came on board in the 3Q12.

Provisioning -Provisions for impaired assets have decreased with the credit charge further improving in the quarter. This trend was broadly in line with our expectations for the reporting season. Going forward, we note that both the gross impaired assets and credit cost will likely continue to improve in 4Q2012 with the newly adopted MFRS139.

Source: Kenanga