kcchongnz blog

V.S Industry, a Very Shining Idol kcchongnz

kcchongnz
Publish date: Fri, 02 Oct 2015, 08:10 PM
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This a kcchongnz blog

[KUALA LUMPUR: V.S. Industry Bhd, which saw its net profit surge 147.5% to RM132.74mil in the financial year ended July 31, 2015 (FY15) against RM53.63mil, is optimistic the group will perform well for the next financial year.

For the FY15, the group recorded a revenue of RM1.93bil, an increase of RM221.8mil, or 12.9% compared to the preceding year. Its pre-tax profit was RM159.7mil, up 280.3% or RM117.7mil over the same period.] 

The above is an extract of an article appeared in Star Newspapers in the link below:

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/09/29/VS-Industry-FY-earnings-surge-upbeat-on-FY16/?style=biz

Adjusted earnings per share of VS, EPS, surged more than double from 5.91 sen to 12.89 sen for the financial year ended 30th September 2015. It share price also surged a few folds the past one year as shown in the chart below.

Yes, just like they say, a picture paints a thousand words. V.S does behave like a Very Shining Idol, as far as the share price is concerned.  $*%&#@, I missed it again!

I have written a number of articles on VS before. They are here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/76875.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/77138.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/77274.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/77720.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/77884.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/77938.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/80998.jsp

These articles were written just to share my view on VS, in particular its financial performance. As my views were contrary to the belief of many VS investors, these articles were not well received, and I was literally told to shut up. Read some of the sarcastic remarks below when the share price of VS keeps going up as I was writing those articles:

 

Posted by shinebright > Sep 7, 2015 02:40 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

Where is that kcchongz! (Disappeared after he was “wrong” in his analysis?)

Posted by Frankiechow > Aug 8, 2015 03:05 PM | Report Abuse

It looks like KCChongnz is taking a cheap shot on Asdion or Paperplane. Why didn't he say anything few weeks back before Asdion took a dip along with the rest of counters in klse? Is he trying to divert from VS which he was completely wrong?” (Like someone divert the 1MDB issue)

Posted by moneyface88 > Jul 14, 2015 01:14 PM | Report Abuse

Sifu KC, you were right. V.S was cheap cheap. Now 5.44 already, too expensive to buy liao

 

Posted by moneyface88 > Jun 24, 2015 12:06 AM | Report Abuse

“Hello Mr Sifu KC Chong .... from New Zealand ?
Your article very Keng , very analytical. I have learnt a lot reading this article of yours.
Then got worried and sold my V.S Share then share price moved up strongly.
Today Q2 result announced, not what you have expected, you must be disappointed
How much you charge ah to learn something from you ?
Please tell me so that I can subscribe to your tips”

 

But I never talk about price, whether it would go up or not. Those guys should be thankful to me instead of taking swipes at me as its share price keeps on going up as I wrote and they have become super rich as a result of my articles, shouldn’t they?

Oh Moneyface, for your information, I never give tips. I have no tips. So there is no subscription for tips. I do teach the fundamentals of investing though.

I even have lost some friends who are diehards in VS, just because I am writing something different from what they believe in and they held a lot of VS shares and are all laughing to the banks. But why do I still writing about VS again here?

Readers who are long enough in i3investor would know I like to write, and share my thoughts about investing. It doesn’t matter if I am right or wrong, does it? Some don’t mind my sharing. For example, read the comments below:

Posted by chonghai > Jun 3, 2015 06:41 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

Kcchongnz, I own VS share. I believe I never attack or insult your analysis, partly because I am still trying to comprehend your analysis. I bought VS for the recently surge in revenue due to keurig. No matter what is your analysis, I will be holding on my VS for 6 more months, because I believe the jump in revenue could be different from before. However, I still really appreciate your analysis because that allow me to have a good understanding of VS. Thank you very much. “

Posted by duitKWSPkita > Aug 7, 2015 04:34 PM | Report Abuse

“thanks for sharing KC CHONG...
appreciate ur kind time for analysis always.............
KC CHONG, I love FA so I never miss all your FA write up.
KC CHONG, may I request if possible to re-analyze VS's financial performance on next QR report. I like to learn should they have certain improvement in facts and figures after the expansion. No doubt CIMB presents an attractive TP of RM7.10 (almost similar with KYY's) but no harm to do an analysis before & after business growth.
Again, thanks Senior Kc Chong
. “

Yes, VS has just published its 2015 financial performance. So to satisfy my friend Duit here, I will share with you what I think about VS 2015 financial performance. Hopefully I can push up the share price of VS further, maybe to RM10 after share split. Your critical comments, with your reasoning are highly appreciated.

Caveat emptor, I will be repeating the same principles again in value investing and it could be boring for some people. If you feel bored, just don’t carry on reading.

Posted by kcstone > Sep 24, 2015 09:34 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

topic repeated dozen of times. only change title. boring. zzz

 

VS fiscal financial performance ended 30th September 2015.

[For the FY15, the group recorded a revenue of RM1.93bil, an increase of RM221.8mil, or 12.9% compared to the preceding year. Its pre-tax profit was RM159.7mil, up 280.3% or RM117.7mil over the same period.] 

The statement is self-explanatory. Earnings growth of VS is nothing short of phenomenon!

As usual, I place more emphasis on return on capital. You know some people ridiculed me about I being too “theoretical”, rather looking at how the “results” speak. Of course “results” here they mean share price movement. Well everyone is different, including me. You don’t have to follow me.

Due to the surge in earnings, return on equity (ROE) of VS has also surged from the norm of about 7% in the past few years to 12.8% now. Well done VS! Well, this ROE is probably matching its cost of equity, nothing that great to me. But I am more interested in return on invested capital, or ROIC. Why? I would like you to read about my thought on this in this link here which I explain a little why I prefer ROIC over ROE:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/75985.jsp

ROIC of VS also surged from 6.7% last year to 12.1% in 2015. This is indeed a great feat. ROIC is definitely higher than its cost of capitals as it has 42% of its total capital in debts. Well done again VS! Its share price will sure surge ahead, won’t it?

 

The spoiler

I hope VSers can cool down here before carry on reading. This is just me. I value cash from operations more than earnings. You don’t have to be like me. But please bear with me my preference too. If you dislike what I have been writing about cash flows all this while, just shut off, and just don’t read further.

Very rarely we read about cash flows analysis in publication, or any analyst report. Hardly anybody talks about cash flows in i3investor, for example. I am a little weird. I treasure cash, cash is king for me as shown in my article below.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/76588.jsp

My own experience in Bursa affirms me that; cash flows is very important as you can read from many of my articles published in i3investor, one of them here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/83399.jsp

Even for my own portfolio established in January which has done very well, the only two losers in return are with poor cash flows (Pantech and Kimlun) and the outperformers are all with excellent cash flows.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/83320.jsp

In my last article on VS when I was using the trailing twelve months results of VS for analysis, I mentioned that “For the last four quarters, its cash flow has improved tremendously with a total free cash flow of RM15.4m.” So I would expect VS cash flows from operations would improve and free cash flows (FCF) to at least positive when the final results is announced.  Alas, this is what I got from its annual results 2015 just announced as shown in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Cash flows of VS

CFFO of just 11.4m amounts to only 9.1% of Net Income, and barely covers its interest payment, despite a huge depreciation add back to CFFO of RM63m! FCF is again in the negative territory of a whopping RM53m because of another huge capital expense of RM64.3m, up from RM52.4m last year!

But isn’t it normal when a company expands fast, it needs to stock up more inventories and give more credits to customers, and buy more property, plant and equipment? Sure, but when is beginning and the end of all these will be?

Over the last 7 years, VS earned RM309m in net profit, but “lost” RM4m in cash. So the company got to issues more shares and continues borrowing money from the banks with total borrowings increased from RM178m in 2009 to RM412m now. Where is the beef?

Without internally generated fund, or FCF, a company needs to continue to borrow to fund its operations, and even borrow to pay dividends, and hence makes the company more risky in times of economic downturn, loss of major client. Without FCF, the company needs to continue to issue more shares to do the same, and as a result diluting its EPS.

 

Market Valuations

Never mind. All the above so called analysis are just “theory” only. The results, they mean the share price movement speaks the loudest as VS’s share price continues to rise. In investing, the past has no relevance, only the future matters, and they can predict the future very well. VS’s earnings will continue to grow at the same rate; it is growth, growth, and growth which is most important, not value. No worry, VS at RM1.38, or a PE ratio of just 12 times earnings is damn cheap, is it?

Compared to its historical PE ratio, I am not sure if it is cheap it has been all the time trading at single PE ratio as shown in Table 2 below as extracted from Dynaquest’s Stock Performance Guide.

Table 2: PE range

 

 

 

Year

Low

High

Average

2010

5.8

11.1

8.5

2011

4.8

8.8

6.8

2012

7.5

8.9

8.2

2013

4.6

5.6

5.1

2014

4.8

9.1

7.0

And also a comment here which sounds logical.

Posted by soojinhou > May 20, 2015 11:06 AM | Report Abuse

No matter how good VS is, they are ultimately just a contract manufacturer. The biggest of them all, hon hai, is valued at pe slightly more than 10. Using that as a benchmark, VS is more or less fully valued at the current price (about RM4.00).”

Well this time may be different. It certainly shows the difference looking at its price now. Soo Jin Hou and I (not me but Dynaquest) were dead wrong! VS should be trading at PE of more than 20, the same as Globtronics.

Again let us talk about some more “theory” here. VS at RM1.38 has a market capitalization of RM1.59b. With a total book value of debt of RM412m, and a market value of minority interest of RM415m, and a cash and investment totalling RM256m, I think we should look at its enterprise value, rather than just the market capitalization. I have written an article here to share my thought about this here.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/49016.jsp

VS at RM1.38 is selling at an enterprise value of RM2.164b, or 12.3 times its operating profit, or Ebit. Is that cheap?

I remember Warren Buffett mentioned before that he is only willing to pay an enterprise value of 7 times Ebit for a normal company. So it appears that VS is a highly exceptional company in Warren Buffett’s book. Or Warren Buffett was dead wrong too. Well Warren made mistakes before also.

The price of VS twice its book value also shows that VS is an exceptional company,

 

My conclusion

VS surely have done very well in terms of profit and profit growth, but reasonable in term of return on capital. The Achilles heel is its cash flows, the persistent negative FCF the last four years. Price wise, it doesn’t appear cheap to me. But don’t take my word, I have been “wrong” on VS all the time.

So with my article above, I hope VS share price continues to fly.

Theory has no use in investing”. But for those who think it may work and wish to learn more, which I also have shown it has always work, and works at its own, whether in US or here as shown in the many articles I have written in i3invesor, please contact me for an online investing course which has just started now at

ckc14training@gmail.com

Sigh, it is hard to find people willing to learn about fundamentals investing nowadays.

KC

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8 people like this. Showing 50 of 63 comments

vinext

1) here is the 3words that can make u rich, rmber "free cash flow"-warren B
2) in i3, i only read kcchong's writing
3) ppl regard me as very good in finance, kc chong by far is the best in FA,and right on money almost all the time in his writing,
if u dont know how to appreaciate his writing, ur mental n inteligence level have some big defects

2015-10-03 06:02

yfchong

I have been I3 for leatning it almost 3 years oredi up to I do find KC always give his thinking cap and his taught on excess cash, FCF n mos is the best shield in bursa malaysia.

I always take his words head I win tail I don't lose much.

2015-10-03 06:24

goreng_kaki

Paperplane2, look back your kindergarten level comments, I would like to say don't make your own shame here...

Did you really know Dyson got how many supplier in senai area? ATA, MEIBAN, FLEXTRONIC, VS ELECTRONICS (subsidiary of vs), and your skp.

You really think vs not taking dyson project before meh??? Dyson like to pulled down their supplier profit margin, this is well known between their supplier.

although Dyson is a US company, but they normally bill their supplier through Dyson Malaysia with a MYR transaction, (listen carefully, billed with MYR )
so sad to heard this right???do a business with US company but receive MYR payment.

This is not end of story yet, did you really know VS ELECTRONICS also supplier of your skpres by supplying the PCBA part to support dyson project, from my insider in VSE, skpres is increasing their order this recent month , mayb nothing special to you, but i have to tell you a main point, SKPRES pay VSE in USD!!!!!!!!!

Although Dyson give more order to skpres, but the most benefit is VS with a USD payment by skpres......... wakaka

thankyou SKPRES

2015-10-03 09:44

Icon8888

paperplane is famous for pretending to be a pro when he in fact knows very little

Just ignore him

2015-10-03 09:52

BuLLRam

Kcchong..always appreciate your articles n point of views here...keep it up...

2015-10-03 10:12

mhchai

paperplane2 gunna brain too much tats why he value Lfecorp at RM0.50, dont play play

2015-10-03 10:15

kcchongnz

Posted by Probability > Oct 2, 2015 08:54 PM | Report Abuse
KC...this time your article has a lot of humor! he he..
keep it up :)
Ohh...its not easy to learn the fundamentals KC!
But all I can say is...once one learns and truly understands them.
U will never look at a stock w/o FA,
Its same like u r asked to drive your car blindfolded.


Great to hear that FA is useful for you. But do you really think "its not easy to learn the fundamentals"? Or it is because generally people are not wiling to put in time and effort to learn something that is so useful for their personal finance?

Fundamental investing always revolves around buying good companies at good price. You don't need to learn many things on how to measure a good company, and how to determine if a price is cheap or expensive. You must know the limitations of each measure is though. It always revolves around just a few things. So much so that this statement was made.

Posted by kcstone > Sep 24, 2015 09:34 PM | Report Abuse
“topic repeated dozen of times. only change title. boring. zzz”

Having said that there are many who dropped out from the course after two or three months. Yeah, no time, and busy on work.

Yes, it is not easy for most people because of work and other personal commitments and choices. But I think it is not because the thing to learn is difficult.

And precisely because of this, fundamental investing continues to work and not easily arbitrage away.

2015-10-03 10:48

kcchongnz

Posted by saschl > Oct 2, 2015 10:06 PM | Report Abuse
Am just a beginner in Stock Market, consequently feeling very much carried away by this KC analysis and becoming very much confused and beaten down bec not sure if this analysis will have adverse effects on this counter or not. It sounds to me KC Chong's real agenda is telling people this is not a good counter to buy and its current price is overvalued! I regard the cursing words he put upfront in his write up is showing his contempt/jeering attitude towards this counter, bec how can a guru class like him would have missed out a counter if it has been regarded as good in his mind?
Also, find that his write up is beating around the bush too much, obscuring the jist of his whole write up which is?????? Still blur what really he wants to tell, sorry plse don't scold an amateur and substandard stock market goer like me, cheers!

I no guru class, and I no contempt any stock, but merely sharing my thoughts. Missed out such a good counter? I have "missed" out many many counters, not only VS.

Beating around the bush? Still blur on what I am trying to tell? Is it my fault or your own?

No, I never scold anybody. Only myself often kena scolded. But it is okay.

2015-10-03 10:54

duitKWSPkita

Great morning Kc Chonggggggggggg

How are you?????????

Got mid autumn celebration in Auckland?????

2015-10-03 11:05

Icon8888

we all envy KC

NZ air good

here air is like poison

2015-10-03 11:07

duitKWSPkita

KC CHONG....waht is ur API over there????

2015-10-03 11:11

paperplane2

Haha. Like if you know a lot vs

2015-10-03 11:12

Icon8888

I don't know about VS, that is why I don't comment

I am more humble

2015-10-03 11:23

duitKWSPkita

Icon8888...... U dont know and U keep quiet....Yes... U are humble indeed....

paperplane2..U know but U never comment... then U are also humble...

KC CHONG know and he humble slowly... He's also humble...

duit know but has yet to comment.... also humble...

good that we have 4 humble men in October..........
..............jz a joke .....

wish all happy weekend.......

2015-10-03 11:25

paperplane2

Duit, what are you buying?

2015-10-03 12:10

duitKWSPkita

wao... paperplane2...

I m doing short term and most of time hit and run.... Got CPO stocks and everyday would have 2 hit n run counter.... no specific counters to keep...

2015-10-03 12:13

paperplane2

Hmmm. CPO recover a bit due to this El nino thing. But not for long. If crude oil low, soy low, forever CPO low...plus China spending slowing, CPO shld slow due to slow demand?

2015-10-03 12:18

duitKWSPkita

paperplane2...........

I wont take things for granted... so still monitor closely ...

EL Nino is partial of the reason.... weak Ringgit will force China purchase more from Malaysia instead of Indonesia... This is a sellin point as well....

However, the crop figure like rapeseed and soyabean show slight decrease ......... again, unhearthening droughts in Papua New Guinea plus climate happen in Africa continent... CPO will have some room to grow....... for now with low edible consumption and cheap petroleum price.. CPO should be capped at RM2,800...........

2015-10-03 12:27

Probability

"Yes, it is not easy for most people because of work and other personal commitments and choices. But I think it is not because the thing to learn is difficult."

agreed with the above KC.

2015-10-03 13:17

odie88

mr.market mood swings up high for VS, but eventually the pendulum will start again. good analysis by kcchongnz, thinking the way just like real business owner.

2015-10-03 21:40

Newbhere

I think no one is perfect in investing. KC has his own reasons/points on VS valuations in the past. Just because the share price is being cooked and pushed up by the funds or institutions doesn't make it a fantastic stock right? Everybody has their own preference and risk appetite on whether to buy the stock or not. Whether the share price will go up or not, no one really knows right. High risk, high return yes? But if sudden major u-turn then at least considered the risk avoided right. So for those who invested that is their bonus and perhaps result of their effort (if they studied the stock).

KC, u should not simply admit you are "wrong". You have your own principles and method of investing, yes? So please remember that. What looks great and wonderful now, may not necessarily continue be so in the long term right? We are doing fundamental investing and must stick to what we believe in and not just buckle from our decision.

The above is my 2 cents opinion only.

2015-10-04 17:31

Probability

aiyo...wrong in predicting la....but
not wrong in reasoning...

if you have bottle filled with 10 marbles
and told there is 6 red and 4 black inside
and you asked to pick one marble blindfolded
which color would u guess u had picked?
surely u will pick red mah? (unless u got bomoh assistance!)

if it did not turn out as per your reasoning
does it mean u are wrong? :)

2015-10-04 20:35

zamsaham

aiyo apa bising bising kat sini?

Just buy and hold, better than FD.

We're here to make money, aren;t you?

2015-10-05 21:18

soojinhou

According to Bloomberg, Hon Hai Precision is valued at PER 9 currently. Don't play play, this is the manufacturer for Apple leh. Why so cheap? Well, they don't own the product, they don't own the technology, they don't own the patents. They are in short the muscle, and Apple is the brain. So what makes VS so special that it commands such lofty valuation? Can they do something other contract manufacturers can't?

2015-10-06 18:07

Ezra_Investor

"Sigh, it is hard to find people willing to learn about fundamentals investing nowadays." - kcchongnz

Dear Kc, don't worry, you're not alone. I share your frustration as well.
When I first started investing, a friend of mine once told me - "Bursa is full of people with gambling mentality, not investing."
I didn't really believe at first, but what he said was indeed true.
Even till today, I don't see many who really learn how to use fundamental analysis, instead tons of speculating and gambling.

However KC, it's rare but there's still people like YiStock, Frank, and many more who still adhere to FA. And many of us love reading your articles. Please do not give up, and continue writing more articles to enlighten us.

2015-10-11 22:51

kcchongnz

Posted by Ezra_Investor > Oct 11, 2015 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

"Sigh, it is hard to find people willing to learn about fundamentals investing nowadays." - kcchongnz

Dear Kc, don't worry, you're not alone. I share your frustration as well.
When I first started investing, a friend of mine once told me - "Bursa is full of people with gambling mentality, not investing."
I didn't really believe at first, but what he said was indeed true.
Even till today, I don't see many who really learn how to use fundamental analysis, instead tons of speculating and gambling.

However KC, it's rare but there's still people like YiStock, Frank, and many more who still adhere to FA. And many of us love reading your articles. Please do not give up, and continue writing more articles to enlighten us.


Glad you like to read my articles. Some say they are boring, repeating. Some, even some seemingly very successful stock market players say fundamental investing won't work, or won't work alone, or even it works in the US, it won't work in Bursa, despite i have repeatedly explain the plausibility of its use, and even provided my own successful experience as published in i3investor a few years ago.

No, I am not frustrated, why should I? The disinterest about fundamental value investing in Bursa, precisely will still continue to provide us the good opportunity to earn extra-ordinary return from investing in the stock market in the long term, as this good opportunity is not arbitraged away.

2015-10-13 10:23

paperplane2

kcchong, can help do study on KESM?

I SAID RM16 much achievable they don't trust.
High depreciation is depreciation..........strong cashflow is main thing

2015-10-13 11:23

Icon8888

the last thing KC would like to do is to help you, after you bad mouth him last time

2015-10-13 11:33

Icon8888

learn some manners and maybe he will consider teaching you a thing or two

2015-10-13 11:33

paperplane2

he will proof me correct, TP 16 for KESM is achievable

2015-10-13 11:35

Icon8888

first of all, learn to show some respect first

nobody like to talk to rude people

2015-10-13 11:35

Ezra_Investor

Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 13, 2015 10:23 AM | Report Abuse

Glad you like to read my articles. Some say they are boring, repeating. Some, even some seemingly very successful stock market players say fundamental investing won't work, or won't work alone, or even it works in the US, it won't work in Bursa, despite i have repeatedly explain the plausibility of its use, and even provided my own successful experience as published in i3investor a few years ago.

No, I am not frustrated, why should I? The disinterest about fundamental value investing in Bursa, precisely will still continue to provide us the good opportunity to earn extra-ordinary return from investing in the stock market in the long term, as this good opportunity is not arbitraged away.

----------------------------------------------------------------

"Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." - Paul Samuelson.

Value Investing is boring, and it should continue to be kept that way. Similarly to your articles KC, be it boring and repeating, keeping it that way is precisely fine.

Anyway KC, sometimes it's better to agree to disagree with others. I'm sure everyone has their own way of making money, be it FA or TA school of thoughts (punting not included, that's pure gambling). Arguing which is better is like the argument between Keynesian vs Monetarist which is better. There'll be no end to it.

I like Value Investing, but I also don't reject Technical Analysis. After all, there're two sides to a coin.

2015-10-13 11:38

paperplane2

Kcchong can proof me correct I tell u ! Tp rm16 kesm much achievable!

2015-10-13 21:37

kcchongnz

Posted by paperplane2 > Oct 13, 2015 11:23 AM | Report Abuse
kcchong, can help do study on KESM?
I SAID RM16 much achievable they don't trust.
High depreciation is depreciation..........strong cashflow is main thing

One of the course participants of one of my online courses has made a detail fundamental analysis of KESM just a few months ago when it was RM2.83. He knows much more than me about KESM. See if he can help you.

KESM is cash rich which makes it appealing, besides a plausible growth story. But RM16 when it is trading at RM4.27 now?

"When you locate a bargain, you must ask, 'Why me, God? Why am I the only one who could find this bargain?'" - Charlie Munger

2015-10-14 17:51

xyxy8

Read this if you are losing confidence in VS:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/84192.jsp

2015-10-14 18:31

paperplane2

Can show us or share with us? Kcchongnz?

2015-10-15 01:35

paperplane2

"When you locate a bargain, you must ask, 'Why me, God? Why am I the only one who could find this bargain?'" - Charlie Munger

2015-10-15 01:48

paperplane2

Not just me notify this kcchongnz. OTB, rosmah, etc all identify this stock also. I just want your view on cash flows.
I saw high depreciation, but also high staff benefit. Pro can con here.

2015-10-15 01:52

kcchongnz

Posted by paperplane2 > Oct 15, 2015 01:52 AM | Report Abuse
Not just me notify this kcchongnz. OTB, rosmah, etc all identify this stock also. I just want your view on cash flows.
I saw high depreciation, but also high staff benefit. Pro can con here.


High depreciation is because of its high capital requirement in its business. More important, over a period of few years, is there positive FCF? Is its recent high capex justifiable?

The answer seems to tilt towards the affirmative. But still the future is uncertain and unknowable.

The difference between KESM and V.S are:

1) KESM is a net cash company whereas VS is net debt. A safer company to invest in. In investing, and as a "small investor", I care more of downside than the upside.
2) VS appears to earn higher return on capital now. But its cash flow is not pretty. Anybody just brushing off the peril of persistent poor cash flow, in my opinion, doesn't understand it.
3) KESM was cheap when it was selling at RM2.83 a few months ago when it was first written by a course participant of mine. It has gone up by a lot since then. Notice nobody peddles this stock then and now and tell you buy buy buy except some noises? You have to judge by yourself and make your own decision if the price is still cheap.

Always remember, even a good company is not necessary a good investment. It depends on the price. If you have bought Microsoft, one of the greatest companies in the world in early 2000, you may still be losing a substantial amount of money.

2015-10-15 08:22

paperplane2

tht's what I don't understand. Their biz shld be light assets required for tech company. Yet they need so high impairment yearly.
Also, after impaired, assets still there running right, unless they sell it. But even sell it also got money right.

2015-10-15 08:43

paperplane2

KCChongnz, how you define Capex? capex is very subjective things....

2015-10-15 09:02

paperplane2

Also, one thing I don't like is the high staff benefit, wiping lots of profit there.......I think it can breech RM6 if it can show consistent profit over next few quarters. Yet, can this be sustainable, I am not very sure.

2015-10-15 09:06

paperplane2

for comparison, I think it is more apple to apple if you compare Elsoft vs KESM, as they both have similar business right?

2015-10-15 09:08

Icon8888

Ha ha ignorant ignorant

2015-10-15 09:10

kcchongnz

Posted by paperplane2 > Oct 15, 2015 09:08 AM | Report Abuse
for comparison, I think it is more apple to apple if you compare Elsoft vs KESM, as they both have similar business right?


Your question is just like some people always asserting that V.S Industries, which has an operating margin never in history of more than 10%, must have the same market valuation as Globtronics which has an operating margin of 21%.

Elsoft's operating margin is 43% whereas KESM's operating margin is only 7%. Do you see the difference in their business model?

Just goggle and see what they are doing you will understand.

2015-10-16 13:50

Icon8888

I don't know how someone can buy into a stock without knowing what the company does

KESM and Elsoft have similar business ? Laugh die me

2015-10-16 13:59

Money Face

KC, stop talking cock lah. When V.S was 3.80, you said this stock not good, blah blah, blah, write articles with sophisticated analysis. After Share Split , now 1 share is 7.60. Please don't write article as if you want to share your knowledge to educate people for free. Your ultimate objective of writing so many things is to entice people to pay you money so that you can use it to invest and make yourself richer. Luckily I didn't listen to your nonsense and sell V.S

2015-10-21 22:37

kcchongnz

Posted by Money Face > Oct 21, 2015 10:37 PM | Report Abuse
KC, stop talking cock lah. When V.S was 3.80, you said this stock not good, blah blah, blah, write articles with sophisticated analysis. After Share Split , now 1 share is 7.60. Please don't write article as if you want to share your knowledge to educate people for free. Your ultimate objective of writing so many things is to entice people to pay you money so that you can use it to invest and make yourself richer. Luckily I didn't listen to your nonsense and sell V.S


"Talk cock"? Please see this statement just published in i3investor.

Posted by coolio > Oct 22, 2015 11:58 AM | Report Abuse
KC, please keep doing the good things you are doing now. I know you will just ignore those annoying sound out there, you know your quality.
I just want to take this opportunity to say thank you again because recently I have achieved 7 figure in my investing journey...hehehe.. Thanks for your investing methods, no 8 wonders in the world is really amazing!


and please visit my most recent post below and see all the comments here.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/84797.jsp


And don't forget to read this article which was specially dedicated to you and I have yet received any response from you on the questions posted to you yet.

Oh yeah, please do read the comments in this article dedicated to you if you haven't, and if you have, read it again.

2015-10-22 13:27

geary

People who has too high IQ can't forecast or project the growth or decline of a particular business model. They fall in love with the stock past fundamental, free cash flow and zero debts. If u want to earn a decent 4 to 5% in stock market, u better go n buy government treasury, corporate bond, time deposit, etc. That was why Newton lost his trouser after the South Sea company bubbled. He fell in love with companies he invested, because of yesterdays high ROE, ROTC, EPS and cash cow companies. Turnaround seldom turns! The future earnings growth prospect is the only way to earn high capital return. U need to thoroughly investigate like a detective, fully understand its business model. U use your areas of competence, make it simple for u, be convicted when u found your future wife. U make your decision, if u don't make decision u don't make mistake. Uncle Buffett also made mistake, you only have to do few things right, as long as you don't do too many things wrong.

2015-10-30 13:36

godhand

how do u compute cffo year 2015 & net capex 2015 & 2015

2017-11-09 16:59

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