kcchongnz blog
Investing during retirement kcchongnz
Whenever I am playing golf with my kakis, or having a lunch or dinner gathering with my schoolmates or university mates, inevitably, I will hear conversation about where and how one can get a higher interest rate from a fixed deposit from banks promising, say a higher rate at 4.2%.
However, this higher return normally comes at a shorter-term, say 3 to 6 months tenure, and often, depositors may have to purchase a unit trust fund from the bank. The costs involved in the later often defeat the purpose of chasing the higher interest rate, though very few realize it.
Surprisingly, few, very few, consider investing in the equity market for a higher return. Most had got their fingers burnt before speculating in the stock market, one time or other. This, I have written an article about it in the link below,
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/104168.jsp
It is understandable that so many of senior people who have retired now are so scared of the stock market and prefer to avoid it all together. In the process, many have missed out on the opportunity of obtaining higher return from the stock market.
Retirement Cash Flows
Assuming one retires at the age of 60, with everything paid up and without any other commitment such as children’s education, mortgage payment, car hire purchase, personal loans etc., how much money does he needs? How much he can spend?
This depends on several factors, among them are,
- How much wealth has he accumulated?
- What is his life style?
- How long is he expected to live?
- What kind of medical care he is expecting?
- What car is he going to drive?
- Is he going to travel often, local or overseas? Where overseas?
- How is his money kept or invested?
- ETC.
Table 1 in the Appendix shows how much one can withdraw, in today’s Ringgit (Adjusted for inflation) at the beginning of each year with one million Ringgit now for different rate of return and number of years of withdrawal in retirement, assuming he leaves nothing behind after expiry.
If one retires at the age of 60 and has a retirement sum of RM1 million put as fixed deposit in the bank earning an interest of 4%, and plans to live another 20 years to the age of 80 years old, he would be able to withdraw RM50000 every year, in today’s Ringgit.
RM50,000 withdrawal in today’s ringgit may be enough, or even abundant for some people leading a simple lifestyle, who are completely debt free and with no other heavy obligations like children’s education, home mortgages etc. For others who would prefer to enjoy a more luxurious life, such as having a bigger house, a better car, or to travel to Europe, US, South American etc. for annual holidays, RM50,000 a year is not enough.
What the retiree can do is to invest in the equity market, earning say 8% return a year. With this, he would be able to have an expected amount RM70000 a year, or RM20000 more to spend in a year, which he can use to do travelling, even to overseas destinations.
How can the retiree achieve his goal of a higher return, more importantly, safely in the stock market?
My proposition is following the high dividend yield investment strategy. The benefit of dividends is that they can provide you with a steady and growing stream of income (after offsetting inflation) that can allow you to live off the income streams in your retirement.
Is this dividend investing strategy workable? What evidences are there?
Historical return of high dividend yield investment
Since 1871 the U.S. stock market has generated 9.1% annual total returns, 52% of which are due to dividends and dividend reinvestment, and the rest 48% from capital appreciation rise of earnings of companies and valuation expansion. There have been many academic researches providing documental evidence that the dividend investing can provide satisfactory return over a long-period of time, and at lower risk.
Back in Bursa, as on 23rd September 2017, I managed to find 19-unit trust funds with dividend yield investing theme from the latest The Edge Magazine, investing in Bursa. The returns of the 19 dividend funds are shown in Table 2 in the Appendix.
The funds returned average compounded annual rate, CAR, of 10.2%, 2.4% and 5.9% for 1-year, 3-years, and 5-years investing horizon respectively. The return for the past one year was good at about 10%, with the highest at 18.9%, with only one loser at -1.0%. However, the return of 3-year period at 2.4% was not good as Bursa was close at its all-time high at about 1885 three years ago. The longer 5-year period at 5.9% is certainly higher than the rate of inflation as well as the fixed deposit rate, but it was nothing great, unless the investor was lucky to have invested in the top performing dividend funds. Even that, the CAR would not have been more than 10% for the longer 3 and 5-year periods.
Can we do better with this dividend investing strategy on our own?
Certainly. Not only with higher return, but substantially so. Moreover, it comes with lower risks.
Dividend Yield Investing Strategy: My personal experience
I have written several articles on the high dividend yield investing strategy. The most recent article in i3investor is in the link below, with a portfolio of 5 stocks selected since two years ago,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/128386.jsp
The following checks were carried out when using this strategy as safety measures,
- Dividend yields at least the same as the bank fixed interest rate, currently average about 3.0%.
- Dividend pay-out ratio should be less than a cut-off, say 65-85% so that there is money left and the business can still grow with the reinvestment for potential increase in future dividend.
- A business model that doesn’t require massive amounts of capital outlays relative to its earnings power.
- Reasonable expected growth rate in earnings at least matches the overall economy, say >4%, also for the potential growth in dividends in the future.
- Strong balance sheet for sustainability of dividend payment.
- High return of equity and capitals > 12% such that the dividend payment is not only sustainable, but grows from internally generated funds.
- Good free cash flows from where dividend is paid from internally generated funds
- Shareholder-friendly management dedicated to treating shareholders as owners
You can see it is a very safe investing strategy, with high dividend yields, low pay-out ratios, high free cash flows and cash in balance sheet, and high return on equity as shown in Table 3 in the Appendix. These checks were carried out, all for minimizing risks and ensure the sustainability of the regular and increasing dividend payment, and hence suitable for investing during retirement.
As at today on 23rd September 2017, the portfolio of 5 high DY stocks returned an average of 78%, way out-performed the return of the broad market of 9.3%, or an excess return of 69%.
There was only one loser in ECSICT, and the loss of the sole loser is only at 3.9%. The other four stocks way out-performed the return of the broad market, with 192% and 137% for Padini and Scientex respectively, and high double digit return for the other two stocks.
Figure 1 below shows the steady and increasing return of the portfolio since inception until today.
On 15th November 2016, a watch list of 17 diversified stocks using the same low-risk high dividend yield investing strategy was provided to my first stock pick service participants.
As on 31st August 2017, the portfolio returned an average of 25.4%, three times the return of the broad market of 8.4% during the same period.
There was only one loser in Perstima, which lost only 2.9% after it announced a surprisingly poor set of results recently, after many quarters of increasing profit.
What did all these tell you?
Conclusions
When one retires, his source of income from work stops. Hence during retirement, he depends on the nest egg he builds over the years for survival. Without any more regular income, preservation of capital is often more important than chasing return for most people. Placing the retirement fund in fixed deposit or purchasing a bond ensure safe return for retirement needs and wants.
However, one must wary of the inflation gremlin which can erode the real value of our money, and hence may derail our retirement financial plan of not having enough money to last before he expires.
Investing in high dividend stocks, with some checks, may provide one with much better return. Besides, it can be a safe investing strategy too if some proper checks and process are carried out.
The success of this high dividend yield investing strategy has been proven in academic research, from the experience of some super investor, as well as from my own personal experience.
This post is specially written for retirees. However, the principle applies to everybody who wishes to build long-term wealth for a comfortable retirement, slowly, safely but surely.
Investment knowledge pays the best dividend.
Anyone who is new, or old (retirees) to investing and needs some help may contact me at,
ckc14invest@gmail.com
KC Chong
Table 1: Annual withdrawal for 1 million Ringgit principal for various years of retirement and return
|
Return/ Years in retirement |
10 |
15 |
20 |
25 |
30 |
35 |
40 |
|
2% |
91490 |
57989 |
41318 |
31377 |
24802 |
20149 |
16697 |
|
4% |
100000 |
66667 |
50000 |
40000 |
33333 |
28571 |
25000 |
|
6% |
108787 |
75918 |
60000 |
49801 |
43345 |
38776 |
35384 |
|
8% |
117817 |
85681 |
69895 |
60643 |
54653 |
50521 |
47544 |
|
10% |
127056 |
95884 |
80892 |
72346 |
66999 |
63456 |
61018 |
Note: All in today’s Ringgit
Table 2: Return of dividend unit trust funds in Bursa as on 31st August 2017
Table 3: Portfolio of 5 high dividend yield stocks, safety checks and returns
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Discussions
15 people like this. Showing 47 of 47 comments
KC's articles have depth and cater for investors across the spectrem unlike some self proclaimed gurus.KC is a gem in i3.
2017-09-24 10:19
Beg to differ. If KC Chong damn good he must be very rich. Can he name a counter his name appear as top 30 shareholder in annual report?
2017-09-24 10:25
Is it ok to show name as 30 top shareholders in xinquan?is this kind of track record ok?
2017-09-24 10:32
donfollowblindly Beg to differ. If KC Chong damn good he must be very rich. Can he name a counter his name appear as top 30 shareholder in annual report?
That is a very naive.. Being sensible doenst necessarily means that he will be rich.
2017-09-24 10:35
They cant argue logically with u so will divert into asking u to show yr track records such as whether u r any of the 30 top shareholders in any listed co whether u bought xinquan fm 1.50 to 3 cents n suffer total loss of tens of millions or whether u stuck rm400m+ in lousy stocks n pay margin interest everyday..
2017-09-24 10:40
Raider had this to say on retirement;
1. U need to grow and accumulate wealth very much to give u a big margin of safety b4 u retire with big margin of safety, this is a prefer choice growing for capital for retirement loh...!!
Your EPF contribute about 25% of employment earnings help but it is still not enough. If u r sole proprieter is still useful u voluntary contribute to epf bcos it is tax deductible.
Say u think u need rm 3m to retire u better ask or target for Rm 7.5m to give u the require margin of safety loh...!!
2. When retire u r actually using ur wealth to generate return, u need to preserve it beside making more monies loh...!!
Raider suggest u;
a) Put at least 50% on cash like assets like fixed deposits, bonds etc.
On which 30% preferably foreign to protect it just in case.
b} Put another 40% on more enterprising investment like quality equities etc, property for rental of at least 80% and leaving 20% for risk taking. U may structure here 30% of the exposure foreign too.
So if u want to goreng stock, gamble and help ur girlfriend in need this 20% is the max loh....!!
3. The income generated from your wealth should be able to support at least 90% of your yearly living expenses plus extraordinaty expenses like travel & enjoyment, medical expenses, capex replacement requirement like new car, tv, handphone etc and special donation
4. Preferably u should own ur home debt free and should be only about 10% of ur wealth. If u stay in a valuable mansion covering 60% of ur wealth, it is preferable u downgrade by selling and buy back cheaper & smaller dwellings amounting to 10% of ur wealth, so that u can maximise ur wealth enjoyment mah!!.
5. U only leave ur wealth to your children when u r not around preferably.
Don make the mistake of transfering almost all ur wealth to your children, when u r still around and end up depending on them for hand out.
In conclusion Raider had layout a comprehensive retirement plan for u.
Just please ponder loh...!!
2017-09-24 11:52
i haven't tried dividend investing yet. My style is more to growth investing so I'm willing to forgo dividend for capital appreciation, at least for now. However, I'm impressed to see how a Padini stock purchased much earlier prior to its appreciation sees its dividend yield above 6% now (according to your record). And given its bright prospect in the apparel industry, I share the optimism that it will only go better over time.
If there's one day I'd wish to own, it'd be high quality stocks consistently reinvesting in itself at an above-average rate. Therefore when it comes to dividend, I'm torn between two options. Should I give more rooms for company to capitalize on its internally generated fund for future growth, or should I as a shareholder demand more sweet as they perform better?
Anyhow, KC has proven himself to be a reliable man in the area of fundamental investing. Give them another 20 years and we'll see how investing shines through ups and downs.
2017-09-24 12:27
Posted by donfollowblindly > Sep 24, 2017 10:25 AM | Report Abuse
Beg to differ. If KC Chong damn good he must be very rich. Can he name a counter his name appear as top 30 shareholder in annual report?
Is this article about sharing a subject on investment, or is it about gossiping who is rich and who is not?
2017-09-24 12:58
Avoid any funds of funds. They are funds, but they actually invest in other funds, so they will ask you for high fees and expenses. Haha
If you are not good at trading stocks, just invest in semiconductor stocks and hold them for one year. At least 50% return in a year is feasible! Many people invest in wrong sectors and stocks.
2017-09-24 13:26
Stocks with high dividends outperform the market most when risk-off sentiment prevails or the economy is bad.
While dividend-paying stocks have outperformed on average over time, they have not outperformed in all market environments. In the 1990s, as highflying tech stocks with limited earnings commanded premium multiples, non-dividend-paying stocks meaningfully outperformed, besting dividend payers by nearly 5% per annum. That trend reversed in the 2000s as the tech bubble burst and non-dividend payers produced a negative return.
2017-09-24 14:26
I don't see any advantage of investing in high dividened stocks when risk-on sentiment prevails or the economy is very good. Maybe you can invest in high dividened stocks to prepare for risk-off sentiment like the North Korea tensions. But alternatively, you can invest in gold.
2017-09-24 14:50
Hstha, u being throw the word riskoff, I wonder how good u are in so call your riskoff strategy ?
It u jus boasting with your buble word ?
U wonder how u trapped in Anzo deadly, if your so call strategy so helpful !!!
2017-09-24 14:56
When risk-off sentiment prevails, prices of high dividened stocks do not plunge, but drop. In contrat, the price of gold surges when when risk-off sentiment prevails.
2017-09-24 14:57
Investing on stocks or equities is very much dependent on one risk profile.
2.For those who can take higher risks can invest on speculative counters.Higher risk will commensurate with higher return in the form of capital gains.But with the word of caution that a proper selection of the speculative counters is essentially vital.Otherwise one can be caught big time and their investment capital shrinks with losses arising.
3.For those who have a lower risk tolerance can vouch for equities with reasonable return or DY at least above what one can enjoy from the Fixed Deposit rates.Or in short value-investing for those retirees,pensioners who are comfortable with medium rate of returns from equities.
4.In whatever investment one is buying,one must possesses sufficient or reasonable basic knowledge about the company background,financial fundamentals,profile of the BODs,the business that they are in,potential for growth,etc.At times many investors have the herd-mentality- just buying what others are buying without any rudimentary knowledge about the company.
5.Will be good IF the person can also have rudimentary knowledge or understanding on the Technical Price Charts Indicators- MA,MACD,RSI,stochastic.That will provide a useful guide and help to the person whether to Hold,Buy or Sell.
Outcome- Be clear of your risk exposure when into investing.The money is yours.Nobody can decide for you.Cheers for a happier and wonderful days ahead:-)))
2017-09-24 15:11
For retiree, the investment should be simple.
Instead of investing in unit trust, a combination of FKLI and EPF will give better return.
Both Mr A and Mr B have RM885K in EPF
Mr A take out all RM885K and invest in unit trust that quite close to track KLCI.
Mr B take out only 10% or RM88K, open a future account and buy/long 10 contracts of FKLI expiring on 31.12.2017 at market price of 1767.
So both of them are exposed to same risk and opportunity.
What will happen on 31.12.2017?
Let assume KLCI will go up 4% per year, and EPF’s dividend is also 4%.
Meaning KLCI will go up around 1% from today’s 1771 to 1789 on 31.12.2017.
What Mr A get?
1) 1% capital gain or RM8850,
2) Dividend of 1.02% or RM9027,
Total of RM17877.
What Mr B get?
1) Profit from FKLI = 10*50*(1789-1767) = RM11000
2) EPF Dividend of 1% = (885K-88K)*0.01 = RM7970,
Total of RM18970.
So Mr B will be better off.
2017-09-24 16:03
I used to invest in Singapore unit trust funds, but the return is only 2.1 percent for over 10 years, then I realised that unit trust funds are not good enough for retirement, now I prefer to invest in good stocks and properties, the return is so far much better than unit trust funds.
2017-09-24 16:45
For me stock market is good, although im just a newbie only 5 months in here..but it really hard, to learn i study TA and FA wisely (sometime until late night studying graphs etc.), without any background in financial. My return in 5 months hoverinf around 20-30% make me wonder why im not go in stock market even earlier..but nevermind, it never too late and stock market i believe if we gain knowledge, will give best return during pension. And of course diversification other, reit, gold, commodities,mutual fund, etc is a must also..my2cents.
2017-09-24 17:51
Good sharing from Mr Chong & stockraider, I personally consider the article from Mr Chong & comment from stockraider are indeed very good advices to not only retirees but also to newbies.
For me, I treat stock market as a marketplace for buying & selling ownerships of various businesses. Understanding the businesses and industries will be important for me to choose which companies to invest.
2017-09-24 18:13
I read a lot of academic papers about stocks. That's why what I'm telling you is true.
2017-09-24 18:33
I read most of papers at google scholar. If you know basic statistics, you can understand them.
2017-09-24 18:48
Good sharing from all sifu here,the link sifu kchong give also good, we need to study not just good side of stocks but also the bad side of em. thumb up and thanks:)
2017-09-24 20:18
Excellent food for thought by Sifu kcchong.thank you for your effort in creating awareness on the proper way to invest. I find dontfollowblindly comment's brings no value at all,a total waste of time for everyone who accidently read that comment. If everbody thinks like this chap then only those whose name are in the top 30 shareholder of a company can be a lecturer or professor for investment courses in universities and only those whose name is already in heaven can teach religion
2017-09-24 22:33
Posted by tecpower > Sep 24, 2017 01:26 PM | Report Abuse
Avoid any funds of funds. They are funds, but they actually invest in other funds, so they will ask you for high fees and expenses. Haha
Layer and layer of fees and expenses. Hard to believe investors can make much return.
2017-09-25 10:56
Posted by CharlesT > Sep 24, 2017 10:40 AM | Report Abuse
They cant argue logically with u so will divert into asking u to show yr track records such as whether u r any of the 30 top shareholders in any listed co whether u bought xinquan fm 1.50 to 3 cents n suffer total loss of tens of millions or whether u stuck rm400m+ in lousy stocks n pay margin interest everyday..
Yeah, what is important is he must be very rich. Only very rich people can be the top 30 shareholders of many firms. Even if you are top 30, it will still not good enough, because you are not the top or second top shareholders.
If you are not the top shareholder of any firm, you are not suppose to share anything about investment. Just keep quiet and admire those who got money.
If you want to write anything in 3invstor, you must show your track records.
Your track records are not what you published and shared in your articles, or portfolios, but your records must be how much money you have in your bank and investments, or have you made hundreds of millions before.
Whether if he has a good principle or process of investing is not important. He must dare to sailang.
Whatever stock he sailang is not important. As long as he dare to sailang.
If you don't buy the stocks they have bought, which have gone up, you are just a low-class investors.
The above seem to have great influence in public forums such as i3investor.
2017-09-25 11:53
lets not talk about the amount of money. its the return in percentage that matters.
some people can start from millions or rather billions, some people start from thousand
2017-09-25 12:27
Everyone has different expectation and returns on investment. Some may not prefer the slow dividend yield investment compared to high growth stock. I remember Padini was at one time only RM1.00 not too long ago. Now its above RM4.00 with a growth of 400%. But remember, if there is any big correction in the market all stocks will be hit. Even good dividend yielding stock and REIT.
2017-09-25 13:23
1) Do I ever boast about my return?
2) Can you find my name in any annual report?
2017-09-25 14:47
Posted by hstha > Sep 24, 2017 02:26 PM | Report Abuse
Stocks with high dividends outperform the market most when risk-off sentiment prevails or the economy is bad.
ME: AS RETIREE OR GOING TO RETIRE, RISK-OFF SHOULD BE THE WAY RATHER THAN CHASING HIGH RETURN.
IS THE MALAYSIAN ECONOMY GOOD, OR IS IT GOING TO BE VERY GOOD?
While dividend-paying stocks have outperformed on average over time, they have not outperformed in all market environments. In the 1990s, as highflying tech stocks with limited earnings commanded premium multiples, non-dividend-paying stocks meaningfully outperformed, besting dividend payers by nearly 5% per annum. That trend reversed in the 2000s as the tech bubble burst and non-dividend payers produced a negative return.
ME: WE LIKE TO OUT-PREFORM MOST OF THE TIME. BTW, NO INVESTMENT STRATEGY OUTPERFORM THE MARKET ALL THE TIME ANYWAY.
2017-09-25 16:03
Posted by hstha > Sep 24, 2017 02:50 PM | Report Abuse
I don't see any advantage of investing in high dividened stocks when risk-on sentiment prevails or the economy is very good. Maybe you can invest in high dividened stocks to prepare for risk-off sentiment like the North Korea tensions. But alternatively, you can invest in gold.
Posted by hstha > Sep 24, 2017 06:48 PM | Report Abuse
I read most of papers at google scholar. If you know basic statistics, you can understand them.
You should know that the real return of gold has been almost 0%.
2017-09-25 16:53
invest in properties , currencies, shares and FD after retirement ( you wont go wrong )
2017-09-25 17:05
If I have 1 Million and I leave it in EPF with average 6% annual dividend, I still can withdraw 60K a year without touching my principal. Nowadays EPF allow member to withdraw the dividend only. So if you are not good and hardwork in equity investment, don't ever think to take the risk.
2017-09-25 21:08
Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 24, 2017 12:58 PM | Report Abuse
Posted by donfollowblindly > Sep 24, 2017 10:25 AM | Report Abuse
Beg to differ. If KC Chong damn good he must be very rich. Can he name a counter his name appear as top 30 shareholder in annual report?
Is this article about sharing a subject on investment, or is it about gossiping who is rich and who is not?
Ans : I thought donfollowblindly respected Kcchongnz a lot, he only good in attacking me only. It appears he is good in attacking all writers in I3.
His comment showed how good he is.
Did he recommend any stock to benefit all readers in I3 ? None.
Thank you.
Ooi
2017-09-25 21:19
Always be in the market, just the risk appetite changes from aggressive to conservative., that is to be safe. Ironically, after 50 and still in market after 20 years , anyone survived the test of time have better chances of making greater return. Knowledge is compounded and experience is a rear mirror.
2017-09-25 21:35
Posted by LA777 > Sep 24, 2017 04:45 PM | Report Abuse
I used to invest in Singapore unit trust funds, but the return is only 2.1 percent for over 10 years, then I realised that unit trust funds are not good enough for retirement, now I prefer to invest in good stocks and properties, the return is so far much better than unit trust funds.
The problem with Unit trusts is the fee, fee and fee. If you have to pay say 5% upfront fee, and 1-2% annual fund management fee, plus fee for asset under management, just forget about good return.
2017-09-25 23:15
Posted by Jeffbkt > Sep 25, 2017 09:08 PM | Report Abuse
If I have 1 Million and I leave it in EPF with average 6% annual dividend, I still can withdraw 60K a year without touching my principal. Nowadays EPF allow member to withdraw the dividend only. So if you are not good and hardwork in equity investment, don't ever think to take the risk.
Return from EPF of 6% is tax-free and risk-free. Put it as the fixed income allocation. Never let any financial adviser or unit trust consultant entice you to take it out and invest in unit trust.
The risk adjusted return on EPF is much higher than unit trusts.
2017-09-25 23:50
Posted by Jonathan Keung > Sep 25, 2017 05:05 PM | Report Abuse
invest in properties , currencies, shares and FD after retirement ( you wont go wrong )
That is right; a proper asset allocation and diversification.
2017-09-26 07:54
Kcchongnz, totally agree with you. EPF is a safer place to invest. While you are working, try to save some cash to invest in stock and without touching your EPF.
2017-11-13 14:35
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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2017-09-24 00:18