kcchongnz blog
How Much Return to Expect from Stocks Investment? kcchongnz
Posted by blanked > Feb 9, 2019 08:13 PM | Report Abuse
“for the sake of newbies,i have to clarify you should aim first for 15% pa....however, after 10 yrs if you still aim 15 % pa...you have only yourself to blame....hahaha.”
In the stock market, one of the most common questions is "How much should I expect my stocks to go up for the next one year?" This is a very tough question, or next to impossible to answer.
A better question is "How much should I expect my stocks to return over the next 5, 10, or 20 years?" It is relatively easier to predict what the stock market will do over long periods of time.
Expectation and outcome are two totally different things. You can expect whatever you want for the return from stock investment, but the outcome, especially in the near future, would probably end up very differently. Hence it is best to have some knowledge of history, experience, research, probability and statistics to have a better feel about expectation on stock investment.
Historical Long-Term Return of Equity Market
The long-term total compounded annual return (CAR) from the US equity market is as below:
- The CAR from the US equity market of 146 years from 1871 to 2017 is 6.9% in real term after adjusted for inflation, or about 10% in gross term.
- US stock held over a one-year period, the maximum return was 67%. On the other hand, there was also a year with a maximum loss of 39%!
- When the stocks were held in longer duration, say for ten years, the maximum CAR was 17% and the minimum -4%.
- Stocks held over a 30-year period had a maximum CAR of 10.6% and a minimum of 2.0%.
Investing in Bursa follows roughly the same statistics, albeit with higher volatility. My own academic research shows that from 1974 to 2006, KLCI had a gross CAR of 12%, not far from the US statistics. I was surprised when I downloaded the longest statistics from Yahoo Finance for KLCI from January 1994 to January 2019, the CAR (including dividend) is less than 5%. That was probably due to the steep fall of share prices the last few months after GE14, coupled with the relatively high stock prices in January 1994.
With the above history and statistics, one should have an idea what he should expect for the long-term return investing in the stock market.
So, what do you think of the opening statement implying that newbies should expect 15% return from the first 10 years, and CAR probably 15%, 20% or even 50% in subsequent years?
To put those numbers in perspective, a young 25-year old graduate who consistently puts aside RM1000 a month and invests in the stock market with CAR of 10% would save up to RM6.3 million in 40 years’ time when he retires at the age of 65. At 30% CAR, he would build up a nest egg of RM5.6 billion when he retires, or RM1.4 billion in today’s money!
So, why aren’t you be more ambitious and aim for a higher CAR of 30%, instead of just 10%?
This again we should refer to history, statistic and research, as without them, we are just simply shooting without proper targets.
Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean in their paper “The behaviour of individual investors” in the link below shows that individual investors under-performed the market due to information asymmetry, overconfidence, sensation seeking and action chasing, failure to diversify, easily influenced by rumours, tips, media and internet forums etc. Many of them had lost their life saving.
Another study by a Boston based consulting firm, Dalbar Financial Services in its 2005 report, “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behaviour” shows that an average equity investor earned over 9% less annually than the S&P over the last twenty years. This huge chasm was attributed to investors’ trying to time the market and thus failing to keep their money in stocks for the entire time period.
Figure 1 below shows a chart in JP Morgan’s 1Q 2014 Guide to the markets.
Figure 1: Return of Assets class
Based on their analysis, the average investor had a 2.3% annualized return over the 20 years from 1993 to 2012, way underperformed the market return of 8.4% during the same period. The return can’t even keep up with inflation.
Hence if investors are not careful, they could end up instead of building up their retirement fund, under-perform the broad market, or even losing their life saving.
There were people who had made extra-ordinary return of more than 50%, 100% or more a year, or even in a month, but few if any can make those kinds of returns over 3 years, 5 years or 10 years. Some had proven to make more than 20% over a long duration of time, investors such as Walter Schloss, Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Peter Lynch, Joel Greenblatt, Seth Klarmen, Mohnish Pabarai etc. They are proven successful super investors.
Undoubtedly, there are also individual investors, including those investing in Bursa, who have obtained those returns, but they are few and far in between.
How to get high return from market?
But how good is an average investor that he can beat the market, say having a consistent annual return of above 20% over a long period of time? Not unless some combination of the following:
- An extreme depressed market in which to buy (hopefully to be followed by a good environment in which to sell).
- Extraordinary investment skill
- Extensive risk bearing
- Heavy leverage, or
- Good luck
What is your chance?
Does an extreme depressed market like that of 1998 or early 2009 in Bursa come along often? More importantly, in that environment, does he still have the guts to buy, or even buy big?
Extraordinary investment skill by definition is something very rare. It is not about following some simplistic investment rules as propagated in the internet space. Do you have that over those working for the investment banks and fund houses? Worse still when an individual is egoistic and overconfident in his investment skill or ability and have been fooled by randomness in his previous success.
Taking excessive risk in order to earn higher return such as following rumours and tips, embarking on the greater fool theory, engaging in leverage and margin finance can also work against you when things don’t turn out well and can get you into deep trouble. I am sure many of you have experienced or at least have seen it a number of times before?
Good luck in investing? I don’t count on that, do you?
What should you do?
With this type of return statistic of the equity market discussed above, as a long-term risk averse investor, I would have the following mind set in investing:
“I need a CAR of 10%. It is doable over a long-term following a proper mindset and process of investing. I’d be glad to earn 12%. 15% would be great. 20% or more would be terrific. But I won’t try that as that will entail higher risk which I am not willing to bear.”
“If everyone is making (big) money and I don’t, it is ok.”
There is no free lunch. Risk and return are intertwined with each other; the higher the return expectation, in general, the higher the risk. A long-term nominal return of 10% would provide me with a real return of 6% which is pretty good, assuming an inflation rate of 4%.
Return expectations must be reasonable. Anything else will get you into trouble, usually through the acceptance of greater risk than is perceived. Expecting too much is likely to lead to disappointment of loss. Trying higher returns usually requires some increase in risk taking; risky stocks, greater portfolio concentration, or increased leverage.
“In investing money, the amount of interest you want should depend on whether you want to eat well or sleep well.” J. Kenfield Morley, Some Things I Believe.
Happy Chinese New Year
KC Chong at ckc14invest@gmail.com
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Discussions
12 people like this. Showing 37 of 37 comments
too long won't gonna read la ,
easy expectation explanation la,
''if u expect high return , u should expect high risks attach to it''
2019-02-10 16:19
kyy do not need all the crap to make millions from carimin...he also confident he can recoup some of his Jaks Losses.....
2019-02-10 16:40
kyy does not lack $$ or need more $$ , he no need to recoup any loss
the thing he running out of is..
tick.. tock.. tick.. tock..
2019-02-10 16:47
Tht is USA statistic. If you've used emerging mkt,or at least China.....
2019-02-10 17:27
Well said. Extraordinary gain is often done at the expense of higher risks. It is not wise for everyone to adopt a high risk high return strategy. Most working professionals only have time to just manage a handful of ETFs at most, and that's what they should be doing if they don't have time to dabble in small-mid caps where the risks are higher. And they should still get good return around 10% with minimum effort. There's no point taking higher risks if the investor do not have the appetite or time for it.
2019-02-10 17:45
Cannot compare Msia market with US market ma.. Harryteo sifu also said before in his fb live cannot compare apple with watermelon ma
2019-02-10 20:27
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/02/10/asias-top-tower-runner-sour-after-putrajayas-lack-of-recognition/
PH bloody farking racist! A champion is sidelined because of his race! WTF!!!!
2019-02-10 21:54
Stock market is a place where majority of participants think they can beat the index. It's a good place to stretch one's ego, just like a casino never fails to invite overconfident gamblers that they too can beat the house.
2019-02-10 22:24
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 11, 2019 12:28 AM | Report Abuse
kc...what is the use of all this nonsense, anyway?
People who read and understand this will be able to avoid the cheating from conman like the quack quack quack who, for the last two years, told them that they could be a multi-millionaire instantly following his sailang and margin buying Jaks and Sendai at RM1.80+ and RM1.40+ respectively.
Sadly, many were caught and cheated, if only they have read all my articles posted in i3investor, instead of the quack quack quack.
2019-02-11 07:44
Posted by abang_misai > Feb 11, 2019 07:45 AM | Report Abuse
Happy CNY KC.
Strange from you but thanks anyway.
2019-02-11 07:47
If you earn 6.6% from the stock market with all the risk taken better put money in FD. You can eat and sleep everyday peacefully. Why have to listen to all this crap?
2019-02-11 10:20
The 6.6% pa is the average aggregrate return over many yrs...some outperform & some underperform mah...!!
Thats why people like 3iii say people can compound every yr 15% pa...very misleading....give the wrong impression mah....!!
To do better ur skill need to improve alot mah...!!
Posted by HYBRIC8888 > Feb 11, 2019 10:20 AM | Report Abuse
If you earn 6.6% from the stock market with all the risk taken better put money in FD. You can eat and sleep everyday peacefully. Why have to listen to all this crap?
2019-02-11 10:44
y kcchongnz > Feb 11, 2019 07:44 AM | Report Abuse
People who read and understand this wil
=========
your margin of safety colleague, calvin , is investing in Chapter 11 Dayang, : your best student , sslee, is invested in one of Bursa's well known dead stocks , that infamous Insas ( Malaysia's very own pink chip) .......what has this thing got to do with any thing?
2019-02-11 10:55
Thats why i say this qqq better don impart his stupid investment knowledge to his children loh...!!
Insas as a margin of safety stock is doing extremely well up 20% within 1 mth and most importantly up almost everyday... going up everyday mah....!!
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 11, 2019 10:55 AM | Report Abuse
y kcchongnz > Feb 11, 2019 07:44 AM | Report Abuse
People who read and understand this wil
=========
your margin of safety colleague, calvin , is investing in Chapter 11 Dayang, : your best student , sslee, is invested in one of Bursa's well known dead stocks , that infamous Insas ( Malaysia's very own pink chip) .......what has this thing got to do with any thing?
2019-02-11 11:01
kc
studies of long term returns are based on Index of blue chips.....and since...kc...u hate blue chips.......what has such stuffs got to do with any thing? furthermore, these are not even Malaysian blue chips but American blue chips.......while u and your margin of safety colleagues are involved in non stable, unpredictable , speculative small caps in Malaysia........the kind of stocks your students want.....more exciting, they say....
2019-02-11 11:04
what KC mentioned is 6% real return la...adjusted for inflation.
how much is real FD return??
2019-02-11 11:04
raid...........if you are trading Insas, just say u are trading Insas.......nothing to do with investing........
2019-02-11 11:07
Margin of safety investing mah....!!
Not trading mah....it is investment loh...!!
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 11, 2019 11:07 AM | Report Abuse
raid...........if you are trading Insas, just say u are trading Insas.......nothing to do with investing........
2019-02-11 11:22
to be successful in stock market...2 things are required:
S=Q r
and to be true and honest to one self.....
to have the ability to execute and to know whether one is trading or investing.......
the whole margin of safety gang....namely Kc, Raider, Calvin, sslee mix up their trading from their investing...and no ability to execute...............got chance for success?
2019-02-11 11:38
This qqq says is the vodoo thing..like rubbish "SQR" stupid thing mah....!!
Simple mah...!!
Investment is all about buy undervalue selling overvalue mah..!!
It is all about margin of safety & taking advantage of Mr Market mah......!!
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 11, 2019 11:38 AM | Report Abuse
to be successful in stock market...2 things are required:
S=Q r
and to be true and honest to one self.....
to have the ability to execute and to know whether one is trading or investing.......
the whole margin of safety gang....namely Kc, Raider, Calvin, sslee mix up their trading from their investing...and no ability to execute...............got chance for success?
2019-02-11 11:45
How to describe Trump?
Trump spends his whole life as a bully.....bullying his contractors, staff, his wives and those closest to him.
Can he bully China like he bullies the others? What will be the out come? I think anyone who says he knows is wrong.
Stock market is built on hope....but one thing is true....Nothing good ever comes out of having a bully as President of the most powerful country in the world.........
2019-02-11 11:59
my advice is that don't worry about the trade war
there will be a compromise, for a simple reason : US cannot afford it
take a closer look and you will discover its weak links
time not on trump side
there will be a deal
2019-02-11 12:01
If u r trump supporters u call it leadership mah...!!
If u r trump enemy u say it is bullying loh.....!!
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 11, 2019 11:59 AM | Report Abuse
How to describe Trump?
Trump spends his whole life as a bully.....bullying his contractors, staff, his wives and those closest to him.
Can he bully China like he bullies the others? What will be the out come? I think anyone who says he knows is wrong.
Stock market is built on hope....but one thing is true....Nothing good ever comes out of having a bully as President of the most powerful country in the world.........
2019-02-11 12:02
No need to worry about Trump. He pushes people to achieve expected target, hence seems like a bully. That is why he is BILLIONAIRE. Trump is wise in making business. Lopsided trade deals is definitely not good. A prudent "customer" will cut costs when they realise spending more than the return. That is what Trump is doing. Don't cry, that he is bullying China.
2019-02-11 12:05
does it work this way?
Does Trump ever behave logically?
Likely out come...1 March...the thing will be swept down the road......extensions.......Its no fun, and it never follow a logical path.....
2019-02-11 12:06
He is logical. Ironically it is the foreigners and those who want to settle in US are making noise and smearing him.
2019-02-11 12:10
dicky....my money...Trump will be in jail within 3 years.....
China also know.
2019-02-11 12:13
Aiyooo,the opening statement looks so very familiar.Hahaha.Take it easy KC.Do not take everything ppl posted at face value.
2019-02-11 23:08
rchi my good friend,
Yes, take thing easy, will you? I do.
I found the statement most appropriate after I have written my article and just before publishing it.
If you have read it, don't you agree?
I just borrow it. Hope you don’t mind.
Thank you.
2019-02-12 00:06
Of course you can borrow it KC.The thing is i did not think twice while posting the statement as its purpose is to tease someone.Hahaha.By the way,i do appreciate the numerous useful articles you posted for i3 community.Happy CNY.
2019-02-12 00:18
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2019-02-10 16:04