kcchongnz blog
The “Big Headed Devil” in EverSendai kcchongnz
The share price of Sendai has dropped from the peak of RM1.40 about 20 months ago to 49.5 sen now, for a loss of 65% in less than 2 years as shown in the share price movement of Sendai below. Is it a good time to bottom fishing now?
Let us refer to the Golden Rule, the sure win investment strategy propagated in i3investor to see if Sendai is worth investing at this price.
|
Date |
Financial |
No. |
Financial |
Revenue |
PBT (RM,000) |
Net Profit |
EPS (Cent) |
|
Year |
Quarter |
(RM,000) |
(RM,000) |
||||
|
28-Feb-19 |
31-Dec-18 |
4 |
31-Dec-18 |
492,496 |
23,855 |
19,586 |
2.51 |
|
29-Nov-18 |
31-Dec-18 |
3 |
30-Sep-18 |
432,206 |
16,371 |
13,136 |
1.68 |
|
28-Aug-18 |
31-Dec-18 |
2 |
30-Jun-18 |
389,772 |
8,847 |
10,753 |
1.38 |
The Table above shows there is increasing revenue as well as profit for two consecutive quarters for Sendai. Earnings per share, EPS, increased from second quarter 2018 from 1.38 sen to 1.68 sen in third quarter and then to 2.51 sen in the final quarter 2018. Annualizing the final quarter results using the Golden Rule gives EPS of 10.24 sen. Further using a PE of 10, according to the Golden Rule, Sendai share price should worth RM1.02 apiece.
Yes, the quarterly earnings, with the last one reported 2 months ago, increase as well as valuation shows Sendai meets the Golden Rule perfectly. But how come the share price of Sendai refuses to go up to close to RM1.02, and instead it drops and continues to drop?
It is obvious that there is no smart money going after it. Those institutions investors who are savvy and have no interest in it.
Most retail investors have not much knowledge in the language of the business; how to evaluate the performance and the risks of a business by reading financial statements, or even care to learn about it. At most, they only look at the earnings in very simplistic way, the EPS without looking deeper into what those earnings mean. Few looks at the balance sheet to have a grasp of the financial health of the company. Yet, rarely anyone look at the cash flows statement, arguably the most important of the three major financial statements.
The cash flows statement tells us how much cash a company is able to generate from its operating, investing and financing activities. It tells us if the company earns what it said it earns.
Table 1 below shows that Sendai has been making profit for the last 5 years, except for the year 2016 when they incurred a huge loss of RM274m, worsen by an impairment loss of RM102m from an investment. However, its net cash flows from operations (NCFFO) were far from satisfactory. For example, in 2018, net profit was RM74.7m, but there was a deficiency in NCFFO of RM92.5m, even after adding back the non-cash depreciation of PPE of RM58m. The worst was in 2015 when Sendai purportedly made a net profit of RM61.5m, it had to fork out cash of RM250m in the year.
Table 1: Cash flows from operating activities and free cash flows of Sendai
|
Year |
2018 |
2017 |
2016 |
2015 |
2014 |
Total |
|
Net Profit |
74727 |
87066 |
-274089 |
61549 |
36315 |
-14432 |
|
NCFFO |
-92548 |
71590 |
-87040 |
-249533 |
52063 |
-305468 |
|
Purchase PPE |
-61815 |
-85073 |
-61883 |
-166458 |
-100209 |
-475438 |
|
Sales of PPE |
1079 |
832 |
781 |
378 |
925 |
3995 |
|
Free Cash Flows |
-153284 |
-12651 |
-148142 |
-415613 |
-47221 |
-776911 |
Why are the NCFFO so poor?
In the last 5 years from 2014 to 2018, Sendai’s revenue grows by 70%, from RM1 billion to RM1.71 billion. On the other hand, inventories grow by 142%, while Trade account and other receivable and amount due from customers grow at an alarming 208%, way above the growth in revenue. To put that into perspective, it takes the company more than 400 days to collect its outstanding debts. The jump in Inventories and Receivables was particularly alarming from 2016 to 2018. This seriously and adversely affecting the cash flows of the company, with huge amount of cash tied up as working capitals for the operation. Being a construction company, it also casts some doubts on whether some of these Receivables are subject to disputes and if they are collectable.
As the company getting more jobs, it had to spend a total of RM475m in purchasing property, plant and equipment in the last 5 years to fund this growth as shown in the cash flows from investing activities. As a result, free cash flows (FCF) were negative every year, without any exception. The company did not even earn enough cash to fund capital expenses each year. The worst was in 2015, with a negative FCF of a whopping RM416m due to the poor NCFFO and high capital expenses. FCF for 2018 was bad too with a negative of RM153m. For the last 5 years, Sendai was bleeding cash and had to find RM777m cash from somewhere to fund its operations and its growth, but apparently did not yield positive results.
Where did the management of Sendai find cash to plug those holes?
Over the last 5 years, Sendai has a net drawdown about RM666m of loan from banks to fund its operations as shown in the statement cash flows from financing activities. As a result, its total debts have increased by about the same magnitude as shown in the balance sheet. Besides, it sold off some of its investment securities and unit trust funds amounting about RM147m as shown in the statement cash flows for investing activities over the years. In year 2017, it attempted to place out its shares to the public, but only RM6.7m was received as shown in the statement of cash flows from financing activities.
Sendai is an established construction company specializes in steel structures design and construction. It has its footprint all over the world in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, India, Qatar, UAE, and Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, and Hong Kong. Its turnover and job in hand is in the billions Ringgit. It appears to have made some profit. However, its cash flows are in dire straits. I wonder how it could survive any more with such serious cash flows problems. Its financial health is also in dire straits now as shown in its balance sheet analysis, and hence banks would be reluctant to lend more money.
In my opinion, Sendai has to carry out some rights issues or shares placements very soon in order to survive and keep its doors open.
Success in investing is not so easy as just to follow some simplistic rule. If something is so simple, it is unlikely one can make extra-ordinary return from it. Worse, one might lose his pants being deceived by the illusive ”earnings”.
Revenue is vanity. Profit is sanity. Cash is reality.
If you are keen to learn about the language of business in order to avoid losing big from listening to rumours and touting of stocks by interested parties but have a better chance of earning satisfactory return to build long-term wealth safely but surely from the stock market, you may contact me at
KC Chong
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Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 50 of 57 comments
by Goh Kim Hock > Apr 17, 2019 6:04 AM | Report Abuse
This is where "business sense" decisions will die. Without going depth into financial statements.
==========
Business sense did not fail, even if KYY lost money on this. It is well known all construction/ contractor shares did badly in last 12 months.
2019-04-17 09:09
Posted by kmohan62 > Apr 17, 2019 8:28 AM | Report Abuse
This guy seemed to be assuming that the company will never get paid by the creditors...the company is constantly getting contracts...and the payment will come slowly but surely...its an engineering firm of world class standard...i wonder this guy's motive...
What is this guy's motive? So that I can buy cheap from you from panic selling?
Good one.
Looking at your comments, you must have some shares in Sendai.
But seriously, this is a good alternative view for you in Sendai. Best of all, it comes free. No one else has done this for you in i3investor, and also elsewhere, I think.
2019-04-17 12:46
Perhaps you should could have done Sapura or Armada, instead of flogging this dead horse. You seem to be hung up on this counter. And this isn't new information, is it KC?
And no, I am not a Sendai shareholder.
2019-04-17 14:13
Posted by arv18 > Apr 17, 2019 2:13 PM | Report Abuse
Perhaps you should could have done Sapura or Armada, instead of flogging this dead horse. You seem to be hung up on this counter. And this isn't new information, is it KC?
And no, I am not a Sendai shareholder.
Posted by qqq3 > Apr 17, 2019 2:15 PM | Report Abuse
spend 2 years on Jaks and Sendai.......for what? kc?
It is so happened that I have been following this company for the last two years when I sensed the bad motives of some, including the quack quack quack, aka Desa6769,, Stockmanny, Brightsmart etc. in shouting margin and sailang in this stock at RM1.40, for the last two years.
I am proud of what I have shared about what I saw in this business, warning newbies and those uninformed and without knowledge about fundamentals of investing about the perils of investing in this company. In the process, I probably have saved many of them from losing big in this stock.
Isn't that a great service to the public?
I still use this company to share my knowledge about fundamental investing because it is a perfect example what one should pay attention to when investing. Hard to find another such a good example.
Again, I believe what I am sharing is utmost important for most people here. But whether they learn something, or get it or not, is not my responsibility.
I hope you learn something. This I am proud to say.
2019-04-17 14:26
Hi Mr KC Chongz, may I pick you brain, I have been an investor in GKENT since dec 2018, and would like to have you opinion on cash flow generation analysis and more importantly the dividend sustainability of GKENT. I realized that mr Philip and I both have the same idea in investing in GKENT for the high dividend (I am currently enjoying 8% as I bought mine at the lows of 0.89 in december).
Do you think GKENT will continue to be able to pay a dividend next year? Or will it turn sour you think?
Cheers, and thanks for any criticism and information that comes my way.
2019-04-17 14:57
In short term, market never relevant. And most newbie absolutely trade for short term until they 'sangkut' then become long term.
2019-04-17 15:14
Posted by Jason Gilbert Ho > Apr 17, 2019 2:57 PM | Report Abuse
Hi Mr KC Chongz, may I pick you brain, I have been an investor in GKENT since dec 2018, and would like to have you opinion on cash flow generation analysis and more importantly the dividend sustainability of GKENT. I realized that mr Philip and I both have the same idea in investing in GKENT for the high dividend (I am currently enjoying 8% as I bought mine at the lows of 0.89 in december).
Do you think GKENT will continue to be able to pay a dividend next year? Or will it turn sour you think?
Cheers, and thanks for any criticism and information that comes my way.
If you wish to know what you should look for investing for dividends, this link here may be useful to you.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/201241.jsp
As regarding George Kent, Philip is the best person to ask as he invests in it and normally he goes into very detail when he invests in a company.
I don't follow George Kent so my opinion here may not worth much.
I never like companies which depend on Government handout. GK have done well in the past because they got very lucrative projects from the Government. They practical did not have to do much work but just to play golf and collect money. I believe all the hard work was done by its partner Gamuda. Without Gamuda, and the disappearance of PDP and negotiated lucrative contracts, I doubt GK can do well. Only if the company can continue to do well, then dividend will be sustainable.
2019-04-17 16:49
The construction industries is a dog-eat-dog world, a very tough industry. A contractor has to undergo competitive bidding. Very often, a contractor got the job because his bid is the lowest. Hence the margin is thin in single digit, unless it is a negotiated contract, or the job is very specialized and the company has a niche in it, which margin is higher.
Hence construction control has to be very tight, and the management has to pay close attention to it, otherwise a low expected profit margin can easily turns into losses when problems are encountered and cost overrun.
The problem is amplified if the company stretches beyond what it can cope, such as having a lot of jobs, but not enough personals to take care of them. This can results big problems in many projects and management has to fight fires everywhere, and eventually big losses result.
I was in the industry long enough and have seen many construction companies, including some very good ones, some pioneers in the industry, suffered and disappeared, because of expanding too much too fast to other fields, especially into the overseas markets, where the competitions are even keener.
The construction company I worked with was one example. If we have stayed as a specialist contractor in our initial niche market and with less revenue but more profit, I believe we are still the market leader.
But that is history.
What Sendai encounters now precarious, unless it bucks up; get profitable job, and manage it well, not only technically, but financially. Manage your working capital well.
Settle any disputes and collect your debts. But I don't know it can be done as the major debtor is also the major shareholder of Sendai.
Otherwise, it is hard to keep the door open with such financial dire straits.
2019-04-17 20:38
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip
Hi Jason, KC chongz is very wise in remarking in its relationship with gamuda. You should understand in construction there are many portions, piling, structural, interior, exterior, mechanical, electrical, high voltage, low voltage, control systems. You need to understand which part they are in so you can have clarity on detail.
Here is a good mental model for you. Gamuda is in charge of civil work and structural. They have won the Penang job for construction. Gkent has always been a mechanical (water) end control systems expert, for example like in mrt2 where they handled the rail cars, maintenance and trackworks for 1 billion.
You have to understand that in construction no one company can handle everything well. They will sub out some items and do the rest ( financial, c&s, m&e, elv, automation choose a few) to reduce their cost.
On top of that you have a PDP or project delivery partner whose job is to select and manage the best companies with proven skillset in handing over those jobs.
There is an onrush of new rail jobs in Penang, Johor, Singapore, kl, Sabah.
You can count the number of local Malaysian companies that have done rail projects successfully with one hand. On time. On budget. Well maintained.
I think Gkent will maintain and expand its dividend in the coming years.
>>>>>
Do you think GKENT will continue to be able to pay a dividend next year? Or will it turn sour you think?
2019-04-18 07:18
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip
Having said that, the main issue with Sendai is not technical, it's main issue has always been financial management.
I doubt they are doing it well, which is shown by the share price.
However very few people remember Geico was also doing very badly when they expanded and did bad investments in the 60's causing is share price to crater. however Warren buffet saw the value in Geico and realized even though the financial management is poor, the business fundamentals and competitive advantage of the company is still there.
For Sendai their book order is a sign of technical efficiency and a competitive advantage. They are competing on an international stage. The investing part is understanding if their financial capability will catch up.
But like kcchongz says I like to climb 1 foot poles and invest in boring things like eggs and fish, rather than dig myself out of the mud with complex investments where I don't understand where the future earnings and revenues are coming from.
2019-04-18 07:26
This is a very good discussion where both sides share their opinions instead of just accusing and arguing non-stop. Thank you all as I learn something here.
2019-04-18 07:43
market bad KC come and write about Sendai debts.............its a joke if u ask me..........plenty more risky shares if market continue to be bad.
This thing is 50 sen and will stay close.
2019-04-18 11:01
Revenue
3 months 12/2018 492
3 months 12/2017 519
12 months 12/2018 1705
12 months 12/2017 1830
Debtors
12/2018 996
12//2017 602
9/ 2018 1021
9/2017 608
WIP
12/2018 758
12//2017 1026
9/ 12/2018 732
9/2017 1023
2019-04-18 11:02
so what happened? a tug boat $ 250 million have been reclassified from WIP to debtors during the year...that is what happened, and will be solved next quarter....that is what happened.......
2019-04-18 11:04
Posted by qqq3 > Apr 18, 2019 11:01 AM | Report Abuse
market bad KC come and write about Sendai debts.............its a joke if u ask me..........plenty more risky shares if market continue to be bad.
I have written a few articles to articulate the risks in investing in Sendai when the quack quack quack, aka Stockmanny, Desa6769, Brightsmart, Longranger etc. was asking people in i3investor to sailang and margin Sendai when it was RM1.40, RM1.00, 80 sen, 60 sen.
In the process, many newbies escaped being coned by him.
Wasn't that a great service to the public?
Actually I have been using Sendai as a text book example to show how to look at a business, and avoid losing big in the stock market. It is a classic example, and also how to judge a character such as quack quack quack.
I was, and continue to be right about it.
2019-04-18 13:49
y kcchongnz > Apr 18, 2019 1:49 PM | Report Abuse
I was, and continue to be right about it.
=========
Your achievement for 2 years is u did not lose money on jaks and Sendai.....
my achievement in the same 2 years is I made quite a fair amount in Jaks and Sendai in last 2 years.....and I believe 2019 will be a good year for Jaks and Sendai.
2019-04-18 17:47
ed by qqq3 > Apr 18, 2019 11:05 AM | Report Abuse X
this KC is a joke if u ask me.................
1000 shares in KLSE....only write about Jaks and Sendai, joke or not?
2019-04-18 17:49
do not be kc...2 years waste his time writing negative stuffs about Jaks and Sendai....
be some one who actually makes money.
2019-04-18 18:00
no shorting in Malaysia
only way to make money is be positive about some thing, not just being negative about Jaks and Sendai.
2019-04-18 18:02
Posted by qqq3 > Apr 18, 2019 5:47 PM | Report Abuse
Your achievement for 2 years is u did not lose money on jaks and Sendai.....
my achievement in the same 2 years is I made quite a fair amount in Jaks and Sendai in last 2 years.....and I believe 2019 will be a good year for Jaks and Sendai.
You see we are totally different in personality.
You are very proud of conning the newbies and kept on asking them to sailang and margin Jaks and Sendai at RM1.80+ and RM1.40+ respectively using different nicks such as quack quack quack, Desa6769, Brightsmart. Loneranger etc. to disguise your true identity so that you can continue to con. You even conned your master and kept on asking him to buy Jaks and Sendai, from RM1.00 to RM1.40, RM1.80, and at the back you profit from them by selling to them. And you keep on boasting your this so-called "achievement".
I on the other hand, wrote articles to tell newbies and your master to be aware of the pitfalls in investing in Jaks and Sendai. I am sure I have saved many newbies from losing big in Jaks and Sendai.
Unfortunately your master couldn't differentiate a good man and a cunning man, and as a result. being conned and lost nine digit figures. But others benefited from my analysis.
So okay lah. We agree that both of us are proud of our own achievement.
2019-04-18 18:06
kc...
things develop...false positive, false negative.
things not as certain as u think....
but 2 years writing about Jaks an Sendai....and make no money, its a jokers work....
only jokers do that.
me? I do not consider myself as super hero. I do not consider i3 as kindergarten to protect the kids.
I hate to have to carry the burden of other people welfare on my shoulders.....They want to swim? Jump into the pool and survive.
2019-04-18 18:17
I hate to have to carry the burden of other people welfare on my shoulders.....They want to swim? Jump into the pool and survive.
also called tough love.
2019-04-18 19:19
who are these people who plays super heroes?
not me....I rather be water and cockroach.
2019-04-18 19:22
Posted by qqq3 > Apr 18, 2019 11:59 PM | Report Abuse X
sendai...50 sen is not time to fear lah.....
don't be KC.....
2019-04-19 00:00
Why nobody here talk Jaks as contractor? How they compare to Sendai, GKent or Gamuda?
2019-04-19 00:48
Kc Chong...............I must apologise to you....I just been reminded that probability is the one who spread rumor about my son in PBB....so it is not you, after all.............just an honest mistake.
probability: very likely...he chicken out saying say last messages etc...after i suspected he is the son of qqq3...
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp
2019-04-19 08:28
Posted by qqq3 > Apr 19, 2019 8:28 AM | Report Abuse
Kc Chong...............I must apologise to you....I just been reminded that probability is the one who spread rumor about my son in PBB....so it is not you, after all.............just an honest mistake.
What a big surprise to get an apology from you. It is a small matter anywhere.
I am also a culprit for all the spats with you. I think I will stop this time wasting thingy with you. After all, we are just different, totally different in thinking, philosophy in investing and many things in life.
However, I will still be writing about Sendai, because it is one of the classic examples to be used in learning and watching out the perils of investing. I have no intention nor any benefit on it, but just sharing investment knowledge, and hopefully people will learn something from it. A great service for the knowledge and experience I have, frankly.
Lets just agree to disagree.
2019-04-19 08:52
Posted by qqq3 > Apr 18, 2019 11:59 PM | Report Abuse X
sendai...50 sen is not time to fear lah.....
don't be KC.....
2019-04-19 09:16
This investment community is filled with people who knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
2019-04-19 10:01
kcchongnz > Apr 19, 2019 10:01 AM | Report Abuse
This investment community is filled with people who knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
=============
so after your studies, u think people should fear Sendai 50 sen? going bankrupt?
want to bet? short to me lah...............
2019-04-19 13:19
y qqq3 > Apr 19, 2019 1:19 PM | Report Abuse X
kcchongnz > Apr 19, 2019 10:01 AM | Report Abuse
This investment community is filled with people who knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
========
I think u over value your own skills.....
so after your studies, u think people should fear Sendai 50 sen? going bankrupt?
want to bet? short to me lah...............
2019-04-19 15:28
Posted by qqq3 > Apr 19, 2019 3:28 PM | Report Abuse
I think u over value your own skills.....
so after your studies, u think people should fear Sendai 50 sen? going bankrupt?
want to bet? short to me lah...............
In investment, I take a bet on the price vs value of the stock in the distant future with my analysis of the business and its risks, I don't bet with anyone what price it will be in a week's time a month's time, or even in a year's time. It is a futile and worthless exercise for me.
So give us your analysis what price should Sendai worth.
2019-04-19 15:55
by kcchongnz > Apr 19, 2019 3:55 PM | Report Abuse
In investment, I take a bet on the price vs value of the stock in the distant future with my analysis of the business and its risks, I don't bet with anyone what price it will be in a week's time a month's time, or even in a year's time. It is a futile and worthless exercise for me.
============
this kind of song, every con artist in the world also got.
no responsibility for the next XXX years.....
2019-04-19 17:06
Posted by qqq3 > Apr 19, 2019 5:06 PM | Report Abuse
by kcchongnz > Apr 19, 2019 3:55 PM | Report Abuse
In investment, I take a bet on the price vs value of the stock in the distant future with my analysis of the business and its risks, I don't bet with anyone what price it will be in a week's time a month's time, or even in a year's time. It is a futile and worthless exercise for me.
============
this kind of song, every con artist in the world also got.
no responsibility for the next XXX years.....
Your kind of kaki kong kaki song, compared with my kind of analysis, facts and figures, it is not easy to see who is a con artist.
As I have said, it doesn't worth my time to get entangle with you. I rather spend my time contributing more to the investment community teaching them the fundamentals of investing.
2019-04-19 17:17
respect? I only respect people who buys the shares of high quality shares that do not collapse.....QL, Yinson, Serba, Top Glove, Harta, Nestle, PBB, AeonCr, Vitrox, every thing else is trading/ speculations....
analysis is for show.....just excuses to buy and sell....even analysis based on facts and figures but without a head for business sense.
Remisiers, traders, speculators......they never care much about facts and figures....they only care shares up or down, got wagger or not.......and no attention to issues of quality and sustainability.
2019-04-19 17:33
share market.....every day also got false positives and false negative....
only certain kinds of ego people want to cari makan by imagining themselves as super heroes, saving damsels in distress.
2019-04-19 17:44
Unker like that I not bad leh... I have QL (after Unker Philip advice), Serba, Harta.... Means I think i am not speculating already wakakaka
Pchem can include or not?
2019-04-19 18:02
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip
It doesn't work like that. Any stock that you don't understand week is speculating. What do I mean understand well? If you can remember from the top of you head the last 20 quarters revenue and earnings, what corporate actions was taken, what business growth was taken, what contracts, order book and profit margin, warrants buybacks esos figures? Then you are starting to know more about your stock.
If you invest based on listening to other people's stock recommendation ( I did not recommend QL btw, I bought bulk of it 10 years ago), you will be speculating.
>>>>>>>
Unker like that I not bad leh... I have QL (after Unker Philip advice), Serba, Harta.... Means I think i am not speculating already wakakaka
Pchem can include or not?
2019-04-20 06:28
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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kmohan62 This guy seemed to be assuming that the company will never get paid by the creditors...the company is constantly getting contracts...and the payment will come slowly but surely...its an engineering firm of world class standard.
=======
I agree
2019-04-17 09:00