kcchongnz

Posted by kk123 > May 4, 2014 07:01 PM | Report Abuse

Mfcb I don't think is a good company
U can check back in the past this company nearly went insolvent and have huge debt
It's asset mostly are in 3rd world country which makes it a risk
If this company is good - it would have acquired assets in UK, HK , US, SG , etc
Those who still want to buy mfcb can do so at their own risk


Yeah kah? Whether MFCB is a good company or not is subjective. You are entitled to your own opinion. But, but

1) When was MFCB having huge net debt and nearly went insolvent?
2) When did MFCB ever made a loss in the last 10 years?
3) When did MFCB ever has negative cash flow, or even free cash flow in the last 10 years?
4) Only having asset in US, UK considered good companies, why?

2014-05-04 19:34

sunztzhe

Mr Koon,
Will giving free warrants result in improving Earnings per Share of MFCB? It may possibly provide short term benefits/euphoria for some warrant shareholders but the consequent effect of free warrants will dilute the EPS. If that is so, will giving out the free warrants really enhance the share value and can the free warrants really drive up and sustain the rise in the share price of MFCB?

If the answer is no, then what will drive up the future value of MFCB EPS? The EPS of MFCB is 28.2 cents/share in 2009 and 33.2 cents/share in 2013. Over 5 years it had risen 17.73 %. Is this a fantastic performance over 5 years? If one compare MFCB with MBSB, MBSB EPS performance over the past 5 years is far more superior relative to MFCB.

You had stated that MFCB is very well managed with 4 main profit centres. It has a very good cash flow and cash rich. It has profit growth prospect which is the strongest catalyst for moving share price.
I am not a shareholder of MFCB and so I do not know the shareholders nor the company management.

As you are a shareholder of MFCB and had been in contact with them, would you concur with the prevailing perception that despite all the positives, MFCB controlling shareholders and management can certainly deliver much more than what it had delivered over the past 5 years? Somehow one do really question whether the controlling shareholders who are drivers of the company do really possess the hungry mind-set to drive up the EPS value of MFCB over the next 5 years or would the future EPS be just around current EPS figures?

2014-05-04 19:39

neversaydie

a very interesting read indeed. I didn't even know that MQ and BQ exists. will take note on improving in these areas

2014-05-04 21:10

yktay1

I think what Mr Koon is trying to point out is that a corporate exercise such as giving out free warrants can do wonders for a company like MFCB despite the dilutive effects in EPS.

Not only will it improve the investing/trading participants of the shares through a higher leveraged proxy, i.e. the warrant, it will also provide a boost to the company's mother shares through some much needed attention as it is currently trading below NTA and single digit P/E.

Yes, no real value created for shareholders in the immediate term. However, with a higher share price, the company will be able to raise more funds in the future through rights issuance or private placement should the company require the funds.

Further down the road, the conversion of the warrants, if in the money, will provide the company with some extra cash for Capex.

Share buy-backs, special dividends and share splits are alternative options for rewarding shareholders which also do not create any real value for the company. But in the case of MFCB, something like a free warrant might just do the trick to give it the boost it needs for the shares to trade closer to its intrinsic value (depending how you value the company).

To compare MFCB which has diversified businesses that are mainly defensive in nature with MBSB which is very cyclical during boom and bust periods is absurd.

2014-05-04 21:16

sense maker

The share price of the mother will be lower after warrant issuance, not higher.

I suppose the fair thing to do is for the CEO to pay down or off its debt using its big cash pile to save interest expense.

Then, the next wise thing to do is to compare earning yields (Profit after tax/market capitalisation) against required rate of return on equity of say 10%. If the former is higher than the latter, no shareholder will complain too much for not receiving good dividend or share buyback because the company is generating a higher return than the shareholders expect. In that case, shareholders should buy more of the shares till earnings yield equal the average required rate of return on equity, thereby pushing up the share price to its fair value.

2014-05-04 21:39

sunztzhe

There is no absurdity in comparing two different companies in different business industries. All listed companies must report Revenue, EBIT, Net Profit, Cashflow etc. It all boils down to numbers. Each company has its own reported numbers.

The issue at hand is to scan the business environment to identify listed companies in different biz industries that can possibly deliver good investment returns over one's investment capital.

Having identified the companies, the investor will eventually decide on which company to invest in now that will deliver higher EPS growth, growing EPS value and consequently deliver higher share price value in the future.

That is the key decision for any investor to make as if one makes a not so good decision on any specific company to invest in there will be a real opportunity cost on ones invested capital over time.

So the bottom line for any investor is "What will be the return on my invested capital? What is the riskiness of my investment in a particular company?"

2014-05-04 22:16

Tommylim

Feedback from my friends anomalously suggested , MFCB should instead entice investors using special dividend. Appreciate your views on this. Thank you.

2014-05-04 22:21

kk123

Do u think mfcb have enough capital to give special dividend ?
You shld probably check longer back in history for those newbies
Or ask those old birds to share with u what they think of mfcb
During last crisis mfcb nearly folded
They still trying to repay their debts now
Now all a sudden some ppl who is "new" label it as a gem
The reason why the share did not go up is a perception thing
Last time many retailers get caught by this counter - till now they don't want to touch it
Already the construction sector is slowing down
Buying into mfcb big is asking for trouble :)
Unless u plan to play contra - once it goes up quickly throw , that's the strategy for this type of risky counter

2014-05-04 22:47

Tommylim

Unfortunately CKInvest, not many parents are aware what career they children should pursue. I am fortunate enough as my father knew oil and gas will guarantee me promising future. Unlike most of my peers, I already enjoy high salary upon completion of my studies. Parents play central role in shaping the future of their children. Thank you.

2014-05-04 23:02

Koon Yew Yin

Why are you all discussing about MFCB which is not mentioned in my original article? Just because someone said that he saw my name on the 30 largest shareholders list, you all are interested in MFCB. I have my reasons for buying it and I am not asking you to buy it.

2014-05-04 23:43

lmenwe

Because you are recommending something good for the punters not for long term genuine shareholders that's why so many posts criticizing your recommendation!

2014-05-05 00:08

Money156

U mean mfcb can contra? :)

2014-05-05 00:17

lmenwe

The article was written to teach others how to be successful. However his recommendation on MFCB management only serve to punt the share price rather than unlocking the value of the company or bring any genuine benefit for the shareholders. If free warrant can unlock a company's value why don't the activist shareholders e.g. Carl Icahn fight for it? Instead of free warrants they are always fighting for higher dividend and force the company to repurchase their shares! No comment on the future prospect on this counter.

2014-05-05 00:25

sunztzhe

kcchongnz: As you are an investor with MFCB, would you concur with the prevailing perception that despite all the positives, MFCB controlling shareholders and management can certainly deliver much more than what it had delivered over the past 5 years?

Do the controlling shareholders who are drivers of the company do really possess the achievement oriented and value creation mind-set to drive up the EPS value of MFCB over the next 5 years?

2014-05-05 07:58

jennylim

Stock mkt is a beauty contest, anything that can make it look better in the eyes of public, is good. No nid so many academic arguement.

2014-05-05 08:08

Fung Chee Fui

Mr Koon, thank you for your kind sharing. Your article is simple but yet not everyone could do it on absolute basis (me included).

To add on, despite that many successful tycoons don't possess any tertiary education, their IQ is still -- by far -- better than many PhD graduates (see Li Ka-Shing). Willingness to learn AFTER graduated from school is crucial to anyone to wanted to succeed.

Having said that, we don't need to know everything in order to be successful. Warren Buffett once said "If you are in the investment business and have an IQ of 150, sell 30 points to someone else. You do have to have an emotional stability and an inner peace about your decisions." The Long Term Capital Management LP's fall was a great story on "EQ is far more important than IQ".

MQ and BQ are something new to me. Thanks again Mr Koon, I've learned new things today. :)

2014-05-05 09:07

fusing79

there are so many fundamental points discuss on MFCB, any technical chart expert here can share your opinion on MFCB? Hope to learn more about this couter. TQ !

2014-05-05 11:35

mmtalents

if you are good.. you can make big bucks in any field or industry, if you are no good, even you are appointed as a CEO for a best co. in the world, you will crashed it.. leaders are to be self-made and not appointed like our country's scenario

2014-05-05 11:49

mmtalents

I see my friend made his 1st million few years after taking over his parents' grocery store business by venture it in to distribution for essential items...

2014-05-05 11:52

sunztzhe

Capitalism in its true sense requires an intensive ,free, competitive business environment to harness the best and fittest to surface and to provide leadership, provide value goods and services for the benefit of the consumers at large. Does capitalism truly exist in today's globalized business environment?

2014-05-05 12:02

mmtalents

depends if you see it from American or Malaysian perspective. .LOL

2014-05-05 12:11

Alphabeta

FA investors look at the inner beauty of the business whereas IA or trader focus on external beauty. So it depends on whether you are looking for a long term relation or a one night stand. No offend to anyone.

2014-05-05 12:12

sunztzhe

Capitalism in its true sense requires an intensive ,free, competitive business environment to harness the best and fittest to surface and to provide leadership, provide value goods and services for the benefit of the consumers at large.

The competitive environment would mould people endowed with reasonable IQ to develop and practise EQ,MQ and BQ.

In today's global business environment does capitalism truly exist? Will society at large be much better off with a true Capitalistic society? Is USA truly capitalistic or veering more towards Fascism?

2014-05-05 12:15

Alphabeta

Those who look for excitement will choose the latter, its individual preference as long as you are responsible for it.

2014-05-05 12:24

mmtalents

Extreme Capitalism is an economic system that will eventually lead to either a breakdown of the host government or Fascism of said government

2014-05-05 12:38

sunztzhe

Coming back to Mr Koon's subject matter on IQ,EQ,MQ,BQ and his recommendation on what any person in this world need to succeed, different people, be it Mr Koon himself as an investor or the Managing Directors and/or controlling shareholders of public listed companies who delivers value to shareholders(although value varies with each company), are genetically endowed with certain traits and in their life journey had acquired relevant EQ,MQ,BQ skills which enabled them to be successful.

Looking from an investor perspective, what are the preferred rankings that you think is required for any Controlling shareholder cum/and Managing Director who are Key Decision maker/makers to drive superior returns in increasing the value of your chosen investment of any company that you had invested or plan to invest in?

How would you rank the four Qs and why do you rank it that way?

2014-05-05 13:10

nsk82

body Q, emotional Q, moral Q, and Intelligence Q ( in strict order precedence). With a good health, you will have much difficulties that hamper your growth. Rest are straightforward

2014-05-05 13:12

Alphabeta

MQ,EQ and BQ are equally important and should be encouraged from young. Those who are blessed with high IQ has the advantage but to be successful you cannot do without the first three.

2014-05-05 13:42

Alphabeta

I have seen quite a number of high IQ friends with strong EQ but failed due to lack of MQ or BQ. Whatever we do, we should not cross the line of no return.

2014-05-05 13:51

mmtalents

why need to rank? one who acquired the 4 Qs skills as much as they could. what you guys think on IQ? is it born with it or can be acquire just like other Qs?

2014-05-05 14:22

kk123

I don't know what Q u all talking about .. Hahaha

2014-05-05 14:39

greatshark

Post removed.Why?

2014-05-05 15:04

kcchongnz

sunztzhe
kcchongnz: As you are an investor with MFCB, would you concur with the prevailing perception that despite all the positives, MFCB controlling shareholders and management can certainly deliver much more than what it had delivered over the past 5 years?

Do the controlling shareholders who are drivers of the company do really possess the achievement oriented and value creation mind-set to drive up the EPS value of MFCB over the next 5 years?
05/05/2014 07:58


ME
Below is the EPS, in sen of MFCB in the last eight years
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
EPS 33.19 25.77 33.03 28.39 28.18 17.00 21.23 19.54

Do you see the trend of its increasing EPS?
Must there always be growth in EPS every year, bearing in mind that power generation agreement can be subject to government profit regulation, and the competition in a capitalist countries?
By the way try find us some companies which has consistent growth in EPS every year? And if there is what kind of price are there selling compared to MFCB?
Actually have you looked at the shareholder value created by MFCB? Look at the table below:

Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Change in NAB 0.28 0.22 0.18 0.27 0.21 0.17
Dividend 0.08 0.08 0.079 0.064 0.053 0.041
Total 0.36 0.30 0.26 0.33 0.27 0.21

If you have bought MFCB 5 years ago at about RM1.00, you got an average of 30 sen of value each year in the form of dividend plus change in the book value of MFCB. Isn’t there good value creation?
If you have bought MFCB 5 years ago at about RM1.00, at a price now of RM2.30, the compounded annual return is 18%. There is an excess return of 6% over the return of broad market of 12% during the same period.

So?

2014-05-05 16:49

sunztzhe

kcchongnz,
Thank you very much for the excellent advise which was supported by detailed financial data over the past 8 years. I am indeed impressed with your fine grasp of the data and your financial analytical mind.I totally concur with you that the past 5 years had been great for an investor of MFCB as it had delivered a compounded annual return of +18%.

Generally the past 5 years were indeed good years for stock investors especially those that had invested in early 2009 onward. The days of low hanging fruits easy for the picking may not recur in the foreseeable future as stock market valuations is at record highs in most places with the notable exception of China.

Let us now focus on the next 5 years for MFCB. Will the next 5 years be the same, much better or worse than the past 5 years average EPS of 29.72 cents/share say 30 cents per share?

Power contributed a significant 73.6% to MFCB Revenue and 69.5% to Pre Tax profit in 2013. Going forward key areas of concern,challenges are as follows :
-Can the two power plants (China and Sabah)Power continue to drive the Top and Bottom line growth and remain the major contributor to MFCB Revenue and Pretax profits
-What is the risk that the Sabah PPA may not be renewed or renewed on less favourable terms
-Can the other business divisions, Resources and Property, take up the slack and contribute more to offset the slack by power division if that happens
- Will there be other significant growth drivers to MFCB Revenue and Pretax profits for the next 5 years.
- Given that the FED is tapering, can interest rate remain at current levels over the next 5 years

The Cambodian rubber plantations and Laotian Dam project will require significant Capital Expenditure sum which if successfully implemented within the targeted time period( 2019 or after) will consume significant cash. What will be the eventual Project Investment cost? Can current cash and deposit sum of RM 156 million be adequate to fully fund these two large projects? If not how will MFCB fund these two projects? Most likely there will be cash calls and debt financing. Cash call will result in EPS dilution and Debt financing will reduce the Net profit figures and reduce EPS. When the EPS is diluted and reduced by additional expenses, the share price will drop as well.


So how do you see the next 5 years for MFCB as you are already an Investor? Would you concur that the next five years for MFCB (2015 to 2019) may indeed be very challenging for MFCB to significantly improve over its average EPS of 30 cents per share over the past 5 years? Can MFCB repeat its 18% compounded annual return over the next 5 years?

2014-05-05 22:07

Koon Yew Yin

kcchongnz, your analysis of MFCB is most encouraging. Do you have some? If you do not have it, would you buy some now?

2014-05-05 23:58

kcchongnz

Suntzhe,
you probably know more than me about MFCB as shown in your comments. Your many questions to me are really challenging. I can’t answer you. I am just a small retail investor living thousands of miles from home. I don’t have all the necessary resources to analyze and answer all your questions. I also have no crystal ball in front of me.

All your questions should be directed to a specialist analyst working for a fund, an investment bank ect. He must a specialist in power plant may be. It is a full time job and must with the clout to interview the management of MFCB, its suppliers and customers.

For me, yes I am an investor of MFCB. I invest based on its present and historical performance, my view of its management etc. These are all publicly available information. Yes, these are backward looking numbers, and I know investing should be forward looking. But I have told you I don’t have that ability and capability to see what’s the future of MFCB.

Again even if a specialist analyst tells me how good or how bad its future is, I won’t place much emphasis on it, knowing that very rarely anybody can predict the future. On this, I suggest you read a book “Value Investing” by James Montier on how bad of all the predictions of the future and forecast are. These all are based on rigorous academic research, not just hearsay.

So yes, I base on historical facts. And to me that is the best I have.

2014-05-06 10:06

kcchongnz

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > May 5, 2014 11:58 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz, your analysis of MFCB is most encouraging. Do you have some? If you do not have it, would you buy some now?

Mr Koon. I find MCFB is a good company by looking at its past performance in ROE and ROIC and cash flow in particular. If you are interested in my view about the business of MFCB, you can read this:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_challenge_2013_2h/34201.jsp

However I will not simply buy anything because it is good. I am a cheapo in investing. I must have at least a feel of its value, and only buy if there is a good margin of safety, meaning buy it cheap. To me this is the only way I have a better chance to earn an extra-ordinary return from investing in a company.

In my opinion, at about RM2.30, it is still not expensive. Yes, I would buy its stock if I don’t have at this price as justified by what I wrote above. However, since I already have it in my portfolio, I won’t buy any more. I believe in diversification, in number of stocks to hold, or spread over different sectors, and financial risk management, because I could be wrong in my analysis. I am a kiasu fellow in investing.

2014-05-06 10:20

Koon Yew Yin

kcchongnz, wah! you have already posted your analysis in last August. I also see that you have posted several impressive articles. Why do you have Tan KW as the author? It look like you are a fund manager.

I like to meet you for mutual interest. Perhaps you can manage some of my money.

2014-05-06 10:39

kcchongnz

Mr Koon, I have great respect for you in your social and political contributions. I am a civil engineer like you, but much junior and unknown one compared to you. surely I will be delighted to meet you.
Lat time Tan KW helped to compile my articles in i3investors before I have my own blog.

I am also is a small time retail investor, far far away from your league. My principles in investing is also in somewhere similar to yours, but it is more of differences then similarities. You can see our differences if you care to read my posts in i3investors here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/

You are very successful in your investing experiences, in your own way.

So you must be kidding in asking me to manage your some of your fund. Of course it will be a great honour to do that for such a charity fund.

My interest now is to educate others in fundamental investing. Can I use your above statement as a marketing tool?

2014-05-06 11:38

Koon Yew Yin

Sure you can say that I consider you an extraordinary investor and your intention in teaching people is noble.

You will recall when I posted my article "Jaya Tiasa is my best bet" in January, many people said that I was promoting it. A few ridiculed me with abusive language. I had to tell them that I have bought more than 40 million shares and I did not their support. Please it if you have not read it before.

The truth will set me free. JT went up about 30% and it will continue to climb when its quarterly result shows increasing profit.

I would like your opinion of Jaya Tiasa. RHB research has published, a few days ago, a buy recommendation on JT

2014-05-06 12:32

kcchongnz

Mr Koon,

Somebody just asked me if he were to buy a plantation stock which has good potential in the near future. I just told him for me these are the two, TSH and JTiasa.

However, I am not in the position to estimate, nor I have any motivation to do, how much its palm oil production will be for the next few years? What would be the oil palm prices will be? Etc. So I would not be able to estimate the revenue, operating costs and its profit will be in the next few years. I think this is the job of a specialist plantation analyst in the investment bank, like your Alvin (?) of RHB.

And most of all, as I said I am a cheapo in investing, I must have a feel of the value of the company compared to its market price. One way I can do is to do a reverse engineering on a discount cash flow analysis and gauge what the market is expecting JTiasa's Ebit or free cash flow will grow say for the next 10 years. I have done that before and I found at the present price of RM2.70, the market is expecting a very high growth of its earnings for such a long period of time. I normally don't want to pay so much for high growth expectation; knowing that the outcome may not be the same as expectation.

I also normally don't pay too much value on investment banker's reports; not that the analysts are no good, they are all highly qualified professionals, but more of their huge conflict of interests. If you are interested in this topic, I recommend you to read this book "When buy means sell" by Eric Shkolnik.

No, I am not saying you are wrong. You have been right for so many times and in fact you have made your money in the stock market. You have your own way of investing which has shown good results. It is just that we do it differently.

2014-05-06 13:35

bracoli

Mr koon only focus on CPO counters? Y not diversification?

2014-05-06 15:16

Koon Yew Yin

Why do I need to diversify if I am 100% sure that the plantation shares I buy will show increasing profit in the next few quarters. When the EPS increases the share price will also increase.

In view of the higher palm oil price, all plantation companies will make additional money for this year. Investors must know how to take advantage of this situation. You must sell those shares that you are not 100% of making money.

2014-05-06 16:08

Koon Yew Yin

I know many Hong Kong Listed companies invest in pubic listed shares which is another profit centre. I know the CEO Goh Nan Kioh more than 30 years ago when he worked for IGB, In fact he negotiated to buy Mudajaya and Jurutama and eventually listed IJM which I for IGB, J for Jurutama and M for Mudajaya.

I am happy to know that Goh Nan Kioh invest in public listed shares. If I am in control of a public listed company, I would also invest in public listed shares. It is like doing business.

2014-05-06 17:06

Koon Yew Yin

unclejoe, The controlling shareholder and the directors decide how to do the business. If they think that it is more profitable to buy public listed shares, you must believe they know what they are doing because they have more money involved.

Whenever, I do not like to buy shares with lots of cash in fix deposit. This can only show that the management cannot find business that gives better return than the fix deposit rate of about 4%.

2014-05-06 17:47

bsngpg

Hi Mr. Koon: I read your comments on JTiasa & TH Plantation, but not TSH. I would much appreciate if you could write some comments on TSH. Thank you.

2014-05-06 21:17

sunztzhe

kcchongnz,
Thank you for taking the time to respond to my queries and I do appreciate your sincere and honest reply. I do now understand the basis of your decision on stock investment. It is a conservative approach based strictly on reported financial data and it goes a long way towards preservation of your capital. You would only buy a stock if there is a big margin of safety ie. current stock price is below the intrinsic value of the stock and the intrinsic value can be computed vide different intrinsic valuation methods. You will sell the stock if the current stock price is very near, at or above its intrinsic value.

The critical success factor in this approach is the determination of the intrinsic worth of a stock. I have look through your past articles and I get the uncanny feeling that it is more an art than a science to determine the intrinsic worth of a stock although the formulas are mathematical in nature. Looks like you had perfected the art of determining the intrinsic value of the stocks!! Heartiest congratulations to you!!

I am keen to learn from your experience and your art in determining the intrinsic value of a stock.Have you ever thought of organizing a 2 day training course for i3 members in KL on a weekend on the methodologies and the art of determining the Intrinsic Valuation of companies based on case study approach?

2014-05-06 22:06

kcchongnz

Posted by sunztzhe > May 6, 2014 10:06 PM | Report Abuse

kcchongnz,
I am keen to learn from your experience and your art in determining the intrinsic value of a stock.Have you ever thought of organizing a 2 day training course for i3 members in KL on a weekend on the methodologies and the art of determining the Intrinsic Valuation of companies based on case study approach?

sunztzhe,
A very good proposition, case studies in valuation. We can use the past performance of some companies, do analysis and valuation and come up with a value. We could then check a few years late, were the company fundamentals remain the same, had changed, and the performance of its stock prices.

I have done this during my postgraduate in Finance. It is very interesting and educational indeed. Only then people can appreciate the art of investing.

However this is a much more advance learning than what I have been doing now. It is not that difficult also, but participants have to be committed to the course and assignment. So we are talking about case studies, not something I think can yield any positive results for just a two-day course, spending thousands each in a posh place. Good understanding of financial statement analysis is a pre-requisite.

I don't mind of doing it online if there is enough participants. The course must be able to yield positive results. Hence it requires long duration and a lot more guidance for participants of different backgrounds.

2014-05-07 05:00

mc121534

Personal success must connect with our inner purpose and passion. We see the world through different eyes, our own. We have our own distinctive personal qualities as a unique human beings.

Success is purely personal and no universal meaning. To someone success is a achievement, material gain, human potential, spiritual, monetary terms and contribution. Our individual genetic structure and life experiences
will combine to make our aspiration unique. We should pursue personal qualities and capabilities to become natural unique inclinations to suit each individuals.

Some just can't really be what you can be. In a sense when we let this happens, we're forcing yourselves, against our true instincts, to something we're not meant to be.

The true meaning of success isn't just about becoming good at we can do, following what someone do.We start with finding the the right thing for us to become the BEST at.

The meaning of success lies within us. It's our own definition, not other's. The best thing of success, is go deep within and discover your passion. That's what matters, despite with years of experience, this went unnoticed.

Success can't be found if we are looking at the wrong place.

2014-05-08 13:23

johnny cash

Post removed.Why?

2014-05-28 07:30