THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

SOYBEAN OIL, CANOLA OIL & PALM OIL AT ELEVATED PRICES DUE TO WORLD WEATHER HAVOC, Calvin Tan

calvintaneng
Publish date: Tue, 11 Jan 2022, 07:01 PM
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

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Red Alert for Excessive Rainfall

CURRENT AIR QUALITY

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BRAZIL NORTH SUFFERED FROM FLOODING WHILE ARGENTINA IS SUFFERING FROM DROUGHT

CORN & SOYBEAN WILL BE IMPACTED FOR YEAR 2022 IN SOUTH AMERICA

PLUS USA PIVOTING INTO BIOFUEL THE DEMAND FOR SOYBEAN EXCEEDS SUPPLY

PRICES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH

 

ABOVE IS SOYBEAN OIL

BELOW IS DISASTER DUE TO DROUGHT IN CANADA (CANOLA CROP: OIL) WIPEOUT

Severe heat, drought slash canola crop harvest to smallest in 9 years

Canada's canola crop was supposed to be big this year with record-high prices spurring farmers to boost acreage to a three-year high

Article content

The world’s biggest canola grower expects to harvest its smallest crop of the oilseed in nine years after high temperatures and drought slashed yields.

 

AT USD1,050 CANOLA  OIL IS NOW AT 60% HIGHER THAN WORLD RECORD HIGH OF USD600

BY SAME YARDSTICK CPO IF BENCHMARK TO CANOLA OIL SURGE OF EXTRA 60% WILL BE

 

RM4,000 (OLD RECORD)

SO RM4,000 X1.6

= RM6,400

WILL CPO REACH RM6,400 PER TON?

 

100 YEAR FLOOD IN MALAYSIA IMPACT PALM OIL HARVEST

 

The 100-year once flood saga: Minimal impact on plantation sector

 
 
 

OIL palm loves rain, and oil palm estates in Indonesia and Malaysia rely on rain to thrive. Therefore, the plantation sector is not new to heavy rainfall or even occasional flooding.  

 

Many players have invested in infrastructure to cope with heavy rain. Moreover, oil palms are tough trees and can endure most floods.  

Oil palm trees are also tall – a young four-year tree is already 2-3 metres high while a prime 10-year palm stands 5-6 metres tall.  

 

The most common complaint regarding flooding in estates is the inability to harvest and collect the fruits. However, prolonged flooding can damage or even kill very young palm trees. 

 

So far, eight states have reported cases of flood, with some states facing more widespread flooding than others. The table below shows the proportion of estates located within each state in the Peninsula or West Malaysia. 

 

However, the actual impact on estate depends on where the estate is actually situated, its terrain and how effective the drainage is.  

So far, a few estates located in Pahang, Selangor, Kelantan and Terengganu are affected by floods but unless the heavy downpour continues and spreads, less than 2-3% of the total area is estimated to be impacted.  

Even so, the damage is likely to temporary and minimal. Groups such as Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd, Ta Ann Holdings Bhd or TSH Resources Bhd do not even have any estate at all in West Malaysia.  

FGV Holdings Bhd is the most Peninsula-centric with 57% of its estates located in West Malaysia but we believe that less than 2-3% of their estates are facing floods.  

Sime Darby Plantations Bhd does have estates in coastal Selangor and their famous oil palm seed garden is located in Banting (south of Klang) but the group has other seed gardens in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea in addition to Tawau in Sabah.  

Our thoughts on the sector 

Palm oil fundamentals over the next month or two suggest little room for bad news – be it unexpected labour shortages, poor weather or negative news from rival oil and fat complexities.  

As such, if there is any negative development on the sector arising from the floods, crude palm oil (CPO) prices are likely to stay firm longer.  

We are maintaining our earnings per share (EPS) estimates as well as recommendation at this juncture while staying “neutral”. (Calvin comments: Cannot stay neutral anymore. SHOULD UPGRADE PALM OIL TO OVERWEIGHT!)  

Our integrated pick with defensive overall margin against CPO price variability is Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (“Outperform”; target price: RM23.60). – Dec 22, 2021

 

Koh Soon Huat is head of research at Kenanga Research. 

The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia. 

 

 

TRIPLE WHAMMY ON THREE MOST IMPORTANT VEGE OIL CROPS WILL NOW PROPEL CPO PRICES TO ITS HIGHEST OVER RM5,300

THIS IS THE BEST OF TIME FOR ALL PALM OIL STOCKS

THAT IS WHY WE ARE BULLISH ON PALM OIL

 

PALM OIL STOCKS: THE SUPERSTARS OF YEAR 2022 (Forget all others. Just pile into Palm oil Full Force)

 

January 8, 2022 By Calvin Tan Smart Investment

Dear Investors & Friends,

 

Now it is very clear as crystal year 2022 will see Palm Oil Stocks going into a most powerful earnings season like never before in all its history

And these are our reasons

  1. Palm oil, Canola oil & Soybean oil are all at very high elevated prices till September 2022

The Results of all Palm Oil Companies will be reporting its most fantastic results for

February 2022 (Results of Oct., Nov., & Dec. 2021 CPO averaged above Rm5,100 a ton)

May 2022 (Results will be excellent)

August 2022 (Results will be excellent)

November 2022 (Results will be excellent) Nov. results include July to Sept 2022 and only in Sept. 2021 we will know how Canola crop fared in Canada (So February 2023 results will depend on how much Canola oil is available then)

For all of Jan to Sept 2022 there will be a HUGE SHORTFALL of Canola oil as Canada 2021 Canola crops wiped out by drought.

By the same yardstick Cpo if priced to canola oil should also be up 60% from its last world record price of Rm4,000

So Rm4,000 X 1.6%

= Rm6,400

Will Cpo price rise to Rm6,400?

That will be the Super of Super Bull!!!

What if Canola crop fail again by Sept 2022?

The unthinkable might happen.

World famine like in Biblical Time where Joseph sold grain for life

Whole of Egypt & the Surrounding Nations lost their entire life savings, their assets, their houses & lands & finally they sold themselves into slavery for food grain after 7 years of drought

And what about Soybean & Corn?

Right now in Brazil there is too much rain impacting harvest & in Argentina dry weather impede growth

In Malaysia a 100 year flood event hit the country

All these are terrifying times when Jesus said

And great earthquakes shall be in divers places, and famines, and pestilences(coronavirus); and fearful sights and great signs shall there be from heaven.”(Luke 21:11)

 

2. The 2nd Reason why Palm oil prices must be high is due to Renewable Energy pivoting from fossil fuel to biofuel.

Firing the first salvo is Phillips 66 converting Its Fossil Refinery to Biodisel Refinery in USA with a first production of 800,000 gallons of Biodisel. Eventually Fossil fuel will be phased out & Renewable Energy takes its place

 

3. While population of the world is ever increasing farmlands are limited. And Bplant just sold palm oil lands to YtlPower for conversion into Solar Farm.

In North Kalimantan TSH RESOURCES is selling Palm oil lands to Kalimantan Industrial Park as Indonesia plans to stop exporting raw palm oil. A Huge Giganic Green Industrial Park will be built to make Cooking oil, biofuel,  soap, toothpaste, washing detergent for clothes,  shampoo, infant formula, pet food, hair dye, lip stick & thousands of other products which are made from palm oil

Malaysia will then takeover from Indonesia to be the Number One World Exporter of Palm Oil

 

4. What about Other Analysts talking down about Palm oil due to ESG concern?

That is the BIGGEST LIE Concocted. Palm oil needs only 1/7 of land used for Soybean or Canola and produce 10 times more oil. Palm oil Esg was a Big Lie invented by European Rapeseed/Canola growers as a form of Trade Protection since they can never ever compete against the versatile Palm oil

Moreover, the Major Consumers of Palm oil are India (1.35 BILIONS), China (1.4 BILLION CONSUMERS OF PALM OIL) Plus Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, The Philippines, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, Turkey, The Middle Eastern Countries & Many Others.

And Palm oil cheaper by 30% to 80% has no cheaper alternative. It has a moat against all other Vege oil in economy of land use, highest yield per acre & lowest of cost & man power.

So for a very long time more Palm oil will endure – as long as the Sun rises & the moon shines

 

Kindest Regards

Calvin Tan

 

Our Top Picks are

TAANN for High Dividends

BPLANT for High Dividends

SOP for Best Growth

THPLANT for its Vast 240,000 Acres Farmlands

JAYA TIASA As A Strong Turnaround

TSH RESOURCES: Insider Boss Buying & Unlocking of Value

WTK: Undervalue Assets

SIMEDARBY PLANT: Almost 800,000 Tons of FFB (Fresh Fruit Bunches) Monthly

FGV: Felda wants to take it private

ABOVE 9 ARE KLSE STOCKS

BELOW 3 ARE SINGAPORE SGX 

BUMITAMA

GOLDEN AGRI

WILMAR (SPORE)

 

Note: After Fantastic Earnings (prolonged) will come Higher Dividends, Special Dividends, Free Bonus, Free Warrants (Or a combination of all 4 to reward share holders)

And Outright Takeover like KLK taking IjmPlant private

THIS WILL BE A WINDFALL BONANZA

Please buy or sell after doing your own diligence or consult your Remisier or Fund Manager

 

 

 

 

 
2
 
Red Alert for Excessive Rainfall

CURRENT AIR QUALITY

TODAY

1/11

16
AQI

 

 

Excellent

The air quality is ideal for most individuals; enjoy your normal outdoor activities.

Based on Current Pollutants

More Details

Learn more atPlumb Labs Logo

 

 
ALLERGY OUTLOOK
Tree PollenLow
Grass PollenLow
Ragweed PollenLow
MoldLow
Dust & DanderLow
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 8 of 8 comments

calvintaneng

Our Top Picks are

TAANN for High Dividends

BPLANT for High Dividends

SOP for Best Growth

THPLANT for its Vast 240,000 Acres Farmlands

JAYA TIASA As A Strong Turnaround

TSH RESOURCES: Insider Boss Buying & Unlocking of Value

WTK: Undervalue Assets

SIMEDARBY PLANT: Almost 800,000 Tons of FFB (Fresh Fruit Bunches) Monthly

FGV: Felda wants to take it private

ABOVE 9 ARE KLSE STOCKS

BELOW 3 ARE SINGAPORE SGX

BUMITAMA

GOLDEN AGRI

WILMAR (SPORE)



Note: After Fantastic Earnings (prolonged) will come Higher Dividends, Special Dividends, Free Bonus, Free Warrants (Or a combination of all 4 to reward share holders)

And Outright Takeover like KLK taking IjmPlant private

THIS WILL BE A WINDFALL BONANZA

2022-01-11 19:05

calvintaneng

Soyoil closed near Usd59
Canola oil still above Usd1,040

Today Cpo will close higher in tandem with both

Bull run in Vege oil is the sure sign of bull run in stock prices later

2022-01-12 05:10

calvintaneng

Few other businesses can make 200% gross profit like palm oil

Thplant cost of Cpo production as low as Rm1,465 and now price has stabled above Rm5000 a ton means extraordinary profit of over 200%

Mr Megat Rizal said even if Cpo is priced at Rm2500 Thplant can still make profit so at above Rm5,000 it means super good times have come for all palm oil companies

2022-01-12 05:13

ITreeinvestor

why no INNO in Top Picks

2022-01-12 09:40

gladiator

I only have top 3 Taann, Bplant & SOP

2022-01-12 09:48

calvintaneng

ITreeinvestor

Tsh is top 2 holder of innoplant

Taann is top number holder of Swkplant

So buy the ultimate holder will do

2022-01-12 11:06

enning22

agree

2022-01-12 11:18

calvintaneng

Super fine morning

Soyoil over Usd60

Cpo should cross Rm5,500 to another new world record soon

2022-01-21 08:32

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