CRUDE PALM OIL FUTURES

calvintaneng

SEE THIS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3E4s59OSLQ

2023-07-10 19:46

Mabel

Calvin Dear,

You are spot on!

Thanks God Mabel has invested in both Malaysian and Indonesian Singapore based Plantation!

Thanks a million for sharing.

You are simply awesome Calvin !

To Our Success !

Meow

2023-07-10 22:30

CynicalCyan

High dividend yield is not the only criteria we should look at, before investing in any stock. Most investors who got seduced by high dividend palm oil stocks last year, he or she would realise, the dividends last year can't cover the paper loss from the fall in share price until this year.

2023-07-10 22:51

DickyMe

YES Mabel,

You are spot on with your investments.
Your continuous calls to purchase SerbaDoom despite all signs of doom were spot on!
Serba is now resting in peace while some of those who heeded your calls are RIP too or RIPped wallet. Cuntwin Tong's calls in NETX brought misery to many and TSH is suffering 50% loss too.

Yes both Mabel and CuntWin Tong are captains of Titanic stocks.
They are always spot on!

2023-07-10 23:54

DickyMe

Even if a company payout 10% yield it would take 10 years to recover your initial cost.
In ten years anything could happen, wild swings up and down, But KLSE records shows, most stocks rise once and collapse to sleep for years. Occasionally, rise to pee on shareholders and back to sleep.

2023-07-10 23:57

calvintaneng

Dear all sincere i3 forumers who visit here,

Please do your own due diligence before buying or selling any stocks

It is your hard earned money and in these very uncertain times better keep safe. If not sure just hold cash until you have clarity

Do not forget that Calvin has been in i3 for almost 10 years now and posted many stocks

All can check them out

1) TStore
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/overview/5711

do read all comments there

2. Super Enterprize
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/overview/8656

3. Kulim
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/overview/2003

4. Tmakmur
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/overview/5251

5. Kwantas
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/overview/6572

6. Kbunai
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/overview/3115

7. Ijmplant
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/forum/forum-thread/800000447

8. Daiman
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/overview/5355

9. Weida
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/overview/7111

10. Others were Golden Hope Plant, Austral Enterprize, Pelangi Bhd, Island & Peninsular, MTD Infrar, MNI, Jland, KFC, QSR, Titan and many others taken private (not bankrupt)

Why only pick on Netx (exclude Opcom & Redtone)
Why highlight TSH and keep silent on BPlant?

So let every one decide for yourself

And why Calvin also got gave warnings on bad stocks which others did not?

See

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2023-04-02-story-h-274336329-HOW_SYNDICATES_USE_DECOY_TO_HUNT_UNSUSPECTING_PREY_IN_KLSE_JUST_LIKE_TU

2023-07-11 00:25

calvintaneng

WHY IS DIVIDEND IMPORTANT? From Dr Neoh Soon Kean's STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT (Reposted by Calvin Tan)

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2022-03-07-story-h1600126216-WHY_IS_DIVIDEND_IMPORTANT_From_Dr_Neoh_Soon_Kean_s_STOCK_MARKET_INVESTM#:~:text=Dividend%20is%20real%20and%20it,provides%20a%20link%20with%20reality.

2023-07-11 00:29

calvintaneng

Listen to this very very very carefuly

After years of ffb harvest to pay off bank loans

Palm Oil Co will be CASH COW

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDMUaI8-ILI

2023-07-11 00:31

i3lurker

KUALA LUMPUR, April 14 (Reuters) - When palm oil prices soared to record highs last year, a Malaysian estate manager surnamed Lim postponed replanting his old, unproductive trees for a third consecutive year to lock in profits - a decision he regrets and is scrambling to fix.

Across Indonesia and Malaysia, which produce 85% of the world's palm oil, growers are ramping up replanting after a decade of letting estates grow older, an ageing trend that threatens to tighten supply of the commodity that accounts for nearly 60% of global vegetable oil.

Oil palms start losing productivity after 20 years. Besides the cost of replanting, it takes three years for new trees to grow and yield a crop - making that land unproductive in the meantime.

"If I had replanted consistently over the past 10-15 years, my yields and worker productivity could have been better,” said Lim, now rushing to catch up on the backlog by replanting 5% of his 2,300-hectare estate in Perak state this year and up to 20% next year.

2023-07-11 08:53

gladiator

RHB Bank pay very good dividend don't ignore RHB Bank.

2023-07-11 08:59

Sslee

I3lurker,
Look like and sound like Philip's logic on dividend payout but it isn't Philip.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Feb 1, 2023 1:30 PM | Report Abuse

the funny thing if we think about it,

DPS | DY | Payout %
48.00 Cent | 5.75% | 48.61% - PCHEM
57.36 Cent | 6.56% | 85.10% - Maybank

MBB is giving out 85.1% of its profits and can only give 57.36 cents of profits to shareholders, while pchem only gives out half its profits at 48.6% and still pay out 48 cents, the difference is pchem is selling to the entire south east asia while mbb is only allowed to do business mainly in malaysia. Pchem can still grow much much more while pay out a good dividend with more money to spare for growth and is only 66 billion, which is a fraction of the value of its worldwide competitiors with incredible profit margins and lack of competitors. if korea can give 10 year bonuses to its refinery staff, how about pchem?


prudentinvestor
2973 posts
Posted by prudentinvestor > Feb 1, 2023 3:59 PM | Report Abuse

Investors are giving Maybank a higher valuation than Petronas Chem for some reasons. Maybank's earnings over the past 12/13 years has been very consistent, averaging around 70 sen a share. Dividend per share has never dipped below 50 sen, averaging about 56 sen a share. PChem earned only 20 sen share in 2020 and 35 sen in 2019. Its eps exceeded 90 sen in 2021 and I expect it to exceed 90 sen again in 2022, all because of high oil prices. DPS for 2019 was 18 sen and for 2020 was 12 sen. Just can't compare with Maybank.

2023-07-11 09:12

Mabel

DickyMe YES Mabel,

You are spot on with your investments.
Your continuous calls to purchase SerbaDoom despite all signs of doom were spot on!
Serba is now resting in peace while some of those who heeded your calls are RIP too or RIPped wallet. Cuntwin Tong's calls in NETX brought misery to many and TSH is suffering 50% loss too.

Yes both Mabel and CuntWin Tong are captains of Titanic stocks.
They are always spot on!
10/07/2023 11:53 PM

Don't be like that lar..

Mabel been in and out of SE and SD many times from it's peak lor just like Dnex, Armada, Velesto etc etc. Fortunately Mabel does not freeze like Monk when it matters. It's a moving target as Mabel follow Smart Money.

Mabel only cum in when Mabel see value and can make money. Besides, it’s human instinct to be passionate on what you do what more if you put your stakes in it. Look it this way if someone come to your house and start complaining that your house is bad lah, your kitten is crazy lah, your furniture is cheap lah, you made a lousy investment lah etc etc ...

How do you feel?..

Although Mabel has many other collection, now Mabel is watching closely SE and Air Asia. Potential Mabel's Lobster and Abalone Dinner and Lunch..

Haha Just like politics, there is no permanent friends or enemies in Investment. It’s strictly business and common interest.

To Our Success !

CheriMeow

Stock: [CAPITALA]: CAPITAL A BERHAD

Jul 11, 2023 9:06 AM | Report Abuse

Johnchew5 Hoho 1st Time le , recalled Dicky n me had been together debated against Mabel in TDM since 2019 , now 3 of US on Capital A Flight …hohoho.
11/07/2023 6:37 AM

Haha Ya lor...

1st time we all wearing the same cap flying together!

To Our Success !

Meow Meow Meow

2023-07-11 09:54

Mabel

Our CPO price needs to be more competitive

June’s MPOB stockpile turned out softer than expected on weak June output but strong domestic consumption. Anticipation of a seasonal pickup in 2H output will continue to keep CPO prices in check in the near term (unless output recovery disappoints again). The present healthy CPO price discount against other competing veg oils are required to help stimulate demand in 2H.

July & August months are crucial weather periods The market is still anticipating improving CPO production prospects as the industry enters into its seasonal peak output period in 2H. The anticipated production recovery in MY in 2H is also premised on the recent influx of guest workers since end-2022. Positively, the recent weather scare in the month of June in the US have lifted prices of major competing oils from their low (which at various points in time in 2Q23 were trading on par with CPO price). Hence increase productivity and depreciation of RM will provide tailwind for Palm oil Exports.

It's looking good. It's on Target with 4 more point to go to Hit Target Price RM 4000 for FCPO August Future Contract!

To Our Success !

Meow Meow Meow

2023-07-11 10:16

i3lurker

silly feller compare Malaysia with Korea.
Koreans work 24 hours to optimise rental of shopping complex

Malaysians out of 8 hours only work 4 hours so need to hire 2 persons to do 1 person job.

2023-07-11 10:18

Shinnzaii

Haiyo…Plantation versus Financial not a good example…if compare stability bank or plantation which one stable?plantation dividend not stable due to cyclical,CPO price good got nice dividend larh CPO price not good you know larh…hehe

2023-07-12 08:13

calvintaneng

Banks are also cyclical like palm oil

while palm oil cycles are short banks do have their cycles as well

in 1929 to 1939 during USA great depression 10,000 banks failed

in 1997/8 Asian Financial crisis out of 49 banks and financial institutions only less than 10 survived and many were taken over

however, in 1997/8 palm oil did well and most survived

See if next Big Crisis Hits will banks survive better than palm oil?

2023-07-12 11:16

calvintaneng

For discussions only in an investment forum here

There are red flags ♥️ in Banks but we see green flags 💚 in Palm oil

What are they?

2023-07-12 15:05

calvintaneng

Red flags in Banks

1. During Mco lockdown more than 70% SME (small medium enterprizes) cannot open
As a result there is loan moratorium
Many later closed shop and gone out of business
Among individuals many also given loan postponement
At that time how to service bank loans when putting food on the table also a problem
We see many houses, flats, apartments put out white flags for help

Now there are many delinquent loans on Banks balance sheet

How will banks recover these unpaid receivables?

This is first red flag ♥️

2023-07-12 15:11

calvintaneng

2. In Iskandar Johor esp Country Garden Danga Bay, Medini and Forest City there are many Blocks of highrise condos now up to 90% empty
Many might turn into ghost Towers later. In jb high court auctions no takers after 6 or 7 auctions

Deep discount up to 70% then only see a trickle of buyers

Whoever or whichever banks lent to these will suffer losses
Up to Rm30 Billions worth of bad debts and more still in process
Another red flag ♥️

Loan impairments by subprime loans brought down Us in year 2008/9 when Lehman Brothers, Bear Stern, Washington Mutual, Merill Lynch, Countrywide and others

Which Malaysian banks overexposed in trouble?

2023-07-12 15:18

calvintaneng

3. In Klse and others we see lots of corp loans now in
trouble

3 Malaysian banks see Rm2.5 Billions loan loss from Genting Hong Kong collapse with no collateral

2. In Singapore Bankrupt Hyflux owes Maybank Rm1.95 billions

3. 6 banks are fighting to foreclose Serba with up to Rm4 billions debt

4. Sapnrg owes Rm13 billions and getting its loans restructure
But will it be able to pay up?

5. Ambank winding down bankrupt Jerasia for Rm23.8 mil debt

6. Public Bank after Impiana Hotel with Rm44 mil claim

7. Mbsb going after Bintai for Rm238 million in default

These are listed co

So many listed cos share prices with huge debt like Knm, serba, sapnrg and others are doing badly with share prices losing 80% to 90%

This is only the tip of the ice berg how impaired will be banks' actual balance sheets



Are there more red flags if one will check and double check

2023-07-12 15:34

calvintaneng

There is also the hidden debt time 💣 bomb in AAX impaired balance sheet of Rm26 BILLIONS

THEY SAID BANKS FORGAVE THE LOANS?

HOW TO FORGIVE?

THESE MONIES LENT BY BANKS TO AAX COMES FROM HARD EARNED MONIES OF INDIVIDUAL DEPOSITORS

BANKS ARE ONLY CUSTODIAN OF THESE COLLECTIVE DEPOSITORS IN BOTH SAVING, CURRENT ACCOUNT MONIES PLACED IN FDS WHICH BANKS LENT OUT?

NOW AAX GOES FREE OR BANKS SUFFER A HUGE LOSS?

2023-07-12 15:40

calvintaneng

Another starting revelation comes from TNB (Tenaga National Bhd)

And since Tnb is listed we can see its balance sheet

Before in year 2019 Tnb receivables only few Billion ringgit

By last two qtrs Tnb RECEIVABLES BALLOONED TO RM22 BILLIONS

Last qtr after many shops and hotels reopened Receivables dropped to Rm18 BILLIONS

During Mco many hotels, shopping malls and others all empty so cannot pay Tnb bills
Now only partial recovery

Think carefully
If Tnb (electricity being necessity) can see so high bad debt what about banks???

2023-07-12 15:46

calvintaneng

For palm oil we see green flags 💚

1. Two years of high cpo prices have washed out most debts of palm oil cos and made them cash rich like hs plant, taann, sop and others
There is no very high margin of safety as the underlying palm oil lands have also gone up in value
So palm oil cos all asset rich in lands


2. Very high cash inflow enables high dividend payout
These cash payouts will continue as long as Cpo above Rm3000

3. With Malaysia's Ecrl rail plus pan borneo highway reaching from kuching to Sabah will unlock all palm oil land value upwards for many years to come

2023-07-12 19:31

calvintaneng

There is now very high margin of safety in palm oil

Margin of safety in banks, however, is being eroded by high npl(non performing loan of many publicly listed co, high repossession of unsold highrise condos in iskandar and 70% SMEs that are unable to service bank loans since Mco time till now

2023-07-12 19:35

calvintaneng

This post got 3 people clicked likes

Ss20_20
Mabel
Mat Cendana

May all of you do well and prosper

2023-07-12 20:02

Mabel

Cheers Calvin!

Mabel loves Plantation. It's a good cash cow...

Meow

2023-07-14 07:50

calvintaneng

So far Calvin sees Palm Oil got these

1. Real Solid Earnings due to Cpo price above Rm3800 (Cost of production Rm1900) and 100% gross profit

2. Very Good Dividends which beat Bank dividends

3. El Nino weather will keep all grain & palm oil prices elevated for few more years

SO THE VERDICT

KEEP HOLDING PALM OIL SHARES BEST

2023-07-14 10:37

stockraider

If u want div sustainability banks will always beat plantation loh!

But for inflation & wealth protections Plantation will wins loh!

Bcos Real estate business & assets mah!

2023-07-14 10:38

calvintaneng

Robert Waters clicked likes

Great

I see you got buy Bumitama Agri (Spore)

2023-07-23 19:42

fakelok747

my uncle say buy palm oil, ignore banks!!

2023-07-24 15:10

calvintaneng

Palm oil dividend coming

2 months ago

EngineeringProfit

Few sen only. Gold price up faster than this, Calvin

2 months ago

ahbah

Agreed, thanks.

2 months ago

calvintaneng

value_invest

Don’t expect TSH dividend to increase in near future. Even TSH sold some land to clear all the debts, the company is expecting to use the cash and even debts for planting expansion again, which is capex intensive. So there is limited cash for dividend in near future. Dividend will only come in after 7 yrs when the capex is over and the plant tree start producing fruits. This is in the situation when some shouted jtiasa 7 yrs ago (2016, debts 1.3bil) at RM2.50 at the initial planting expansion stage. Now 7 yrs later (2024), jtiasa start to paying off debts and tree producing good fruits. Company will start to pay good dividend coming years with all the free cash. If you are interested in plantation stock, Jtiasa will be prefer pick now, or TSH will be GOOD 7 yrs later in 2031.

1 hour ago


calvintaneng

Value Invest only 50% correct

JAYA TIASA NOW AT STAGE 6


THE 7 PHASES OF A SUCCESSFUL PALM OIL COMPANY, Calvin Tan
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2023-09-26-story-h-218987595-THE_7_PHASES_OF_A_SUCCESSFUL_PALM_OIL_COMPANY_Calvin_Tan

And TSH is Now at Stage 5 (Not stages 1 -3 where it has no income & high bank loan to service)

TSH already Sold Bulugan lands for Rm731.09 Millions & CASH OF RM465 MILLIONS ALREADY RECEIVED

PLUS IT HAS ONLY ONLY RM17 MILLIONS NET DEBT. ONE MORE QTR RESULT WILL MAKE TSH A NET CASH COMPANY LIKE INNO

SO CASH ALREADY SET ASIDE FOR CAPEX PLUS NO NEED BANK INTEREST EXPENSE TSH FREE CASH FLOW CAN NOW TURN INTO MORE DIVIDEND PAYOUT

PLUS TSH RECEIVES RM3.15 MILLIONS FREE CASH DIVIDEND FROM INNO

ITS LANDS IN IKN NUSANTARA MEANWHILE APPRECIATES UP BY THE MONTH, WEEK, DAY & EVERY SECOND GOING HIGHER AND HIGHER

That is Why TSH is a Different Palm Oil Stock now

1 second ago

2 months ago

Pinky

United Plantations dividend baru best

Why Calvin never promote UP, but promote sampah like TSH?

2 months ago

calvintaneng

Pinky

United Plantations dividend baru best

Why Calvin never promote UP, but promote sampah like TSH?

Pinky I understand your position perfectly

But you don't understand Calvin

Calvin seeks high performance ones

UTD PLANT up from Rm14 to Rm21 is up 33%

BPLANT UP WITH DIVIDENDS FROM 57 SEN TO RM1.55 IS UP 369% KAW KAW

JTIASA UP FROM 63 SEN TO RM1.26 IS UP 100%

THPLANT UP FROM 50 SEN TO 80 SEN IS UP 60%

ALL BEATEN UPLANT

LATER TSH?

IT WILL BEAT EVERY ONE TO BE CHAMPION OF CHAMPIONS!

GET IT NOW BEFORE TOO LATE!!!

2 months ago

Pinky

Shifting goal post - you were talking about DIVIDEND PERFORMANCE

2 months ago

Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥

>>>>

calvintaneng

Dear all sincere i3 forumers who visit here,

Please do your own due diligence before buying or selling any stocks

It is your hard earned money and in these very uncertain times better keep safe. If not sure just hold cash until you have clarity

Do not forget that Calvin has been in i3 for almost 10 years now and posted many stocks

>>>>


Far too many stocks recommended. Probably, every stock in BURSA. 😀

2 months ago

Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥

>>>
CynicalCyan

High dividend yield is not the only criteria we should look at, before investing in any stock. Most investors who got seduced by high dividend palm oil stocks last year, he or she would realise, the dividends last year can't cover the paper loss from the fall in share price until this year.

2023-07-10 22:51
>>>

Exactly. Just ask calvintaneng a very simple question and wait for his answer.

calvintaneng asked everyone to buy TSH when it was RM 1.78, citing the big dividends that this company was going to distribute. Yes, they did receive their dividends, but alas, the share price dropped to RM 1.05. Did they make money? Ask calvintaneng.

😀

2 months ago

ahbah

We also must have clarity about cash or fiat currencies which ALWAYS go down to ZIRO value on a long term basis !!! 😁😁😁

2 months ago

Mabel

Dividend investing is like planting a tree...

The earlier you start, the bigger your tree is going to grow.

And before you know it, you will be resting in the shade of your own financial forest, enjoying the fruits of your labor, year after year...

Why?

Because dividends... GROW.

And that's how some Dividend Machines reached their milestones in dividends.

For the past 10 years...

DBS (Bank) increased their dividends by 158%
Wilmar (Plantation) increased their dividends by 112%
So if you think $5,000 in annual dividends today is too little...

Your $5,000 'passive' income just became:

$12,900 if you invested in DBS
$10,600 if you invested in Wilmar
All you did is buying the right dividend stocks...

...And wait

Get paid in year 1...

...And wait

Get paid more in year 2...

...And wait

Get paid even more in year 3...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0kcet4aPpQ

1 month ago

Mabel

Yesterday we talked about DBS (Southeast Asia Biggest Bank) and Wilmar (World Largest Plantation by Market Capitalization) Dividend Growth.

Today we talked about share prices vs earning growth for CIMB (Bank) vs Sarawak Plantation (Palm Oil)

Over the last 3 years on average, CIMB Bank earnings per share has increased by 32% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Meanwhile SOP palm oil plantation earnings per share has increased by 2% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year. Can you explain why the bank share prices is lagging with the earning growth?

Let’s analyse the situation for both CIMB Bank and SOP (Sarawak Oil Palms):

CIMB Bank: Earnings Growth: CIMB Bank has experienced robust earnings growth, with earnings per share (EPS) increasing by an impressive 32% per year on average over the last 3 years. Share Price Lag: Despite the strong earnings performance, the share price has only grown by 12% per year on average during the same period.

Possible Reasons: Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment and market perception play a significant role. If investors perceive risks or uncertainties related to the banking sector, it can suppress share price growth. Interest Rate Environment: Banks are sensitive to interest rate changes. If interest rates remain low or decline, it can impact net interest margins and profitability, affecting share prices. Regulatory Environment: Regulatory changes, capital requirements, and compliance costs can influence investor confidence. Market Perception of Banking Sector: The overall market view of the banking industry may not align with the strong earnings growth of individual banks.

SOP (Sarawak Oil Palms): Earnings Growth: SOP’s earnings per share (EPS) has increased by a more modest 2% per year on average over the last 3 years. Share Price Performance: Despite the relatively lower earnings growth, SOP’s share price has still managed to grow by 6% per year on average.

Potential Factors: Industry-Specific Factors: The palm oil industry has its own dynamics, including supply-demand fluctuations, commodity prices, and weather conditions. These factors can impact share prices. Investor Sentiment: Investors may perceive palm oil companies differently based on environmental and sustainability concerns. Market expectations: SOP’s share price growth might align better with market expectations for the palm oil sector.

In summary, while earnings growth is a crucial driver of share price appreciation, other factors such as market sentiment, industry-specific dynamics, and regulatory environment also come into play.

Market sentiment refers to the overall mood or attitude of investors and traders toward a particular financial market, asset class, or individual securities. It plays a crucial role in shaping price movements and can significantly impact share prices. When market sentiment is bullish, investors are optimistic about the future. They believe that prices will rise, and economic conditions will improve. Bullish sentiment tends to drive buying activity. Investors purchase stocks, leading to increased demand and higher share prices. Positive news, strong earnings reports, and favorable economic indicators contribute to bullish sentiment. The opposite goes with bearish sentiments.

1 month ago

xiaoeh

Mabel has a very strong analytical power
learn something bit by bit from u
Thanks

1 month ago