May I know what is the fair value? what is the driving force for better profit ?

http://blog.alcircle.com/2016/08/31/u-s-aluminium-foil-industry-red-succumbs-chinese-competition/

The problem Bright is facing is industry problem. It is very price competitive although market is potentially big.

Secondly, in previous managment, there is no aggressive expansion. So, the solution now lays on the current management. They have shown they want to be BIG by grabbing more market. The price they pay is competitive pricing.

Now, question is worth to invest?

At current price, Bright is not considered cheap. Remember the cash it has is from right shares.

Bright needs volume and industry change in order to survive. There could be some merger and acquisitions.

ready to fly..sit tight

Hi Guys,

I have no offence to anyone. But, please allow me to share my experience with you guys.

Evergreen
1) What I see in investment is RETURN. No other than this. I keep reminding myself not to fall in love with share. This is very very important. Because LOVE is blind. Evergreen provides a stronger return because of the investment yet to be reflected. It is already done but yet to be reflected and market is always NOT efficient in something not SEEN yet. From previous experience, the management already realised how important it is to be COST EFFECTIVE. This is why the last 2 years they have poor FCF due to INVESTMENT. Now, the fruit is ready to ripe. Thus, from return point of view, Evergreen win in this point.

2) Management also realised that important of going for quality. Quality not only ensures of pricing power but also means reduced cost (less failed products). Thus, they are installing new particleboard line for higher grade particleboard. At the same time, they realised the new market of RTA. This is why they expanded on it

3) They try to consolidate their factories to be efficient to improve their margins.

Thus, in conclusion. I would say FY17 will very exciting when Evergreen announce their result. There are the same management that have bring Evergreen to summit before. I believe this round it will be eye clearing result

Hevea
1) Needless to say, for the past 2 years they have shown to everyone how good it is. In fact, when I bought Hevea, everyone very worry about their debts. But, when I see they can generate good FCF I already bought in thanks to my friend point this share to me.

2)But, when we talking about growth, I would errr....why? Because it is already been shown. What else can be shown? Yes, there are. Gradual improvement on volumes. So, this is why Hevea was beaten down a while ago. This is same as TOPGLOVE. Why do you buy in again? Well, I did not say Hevea is bad. Hevea is already been very GOOD. It is just growth might not be that significant but the price being beaten down.

SO, the story is just as SIMPLE as that. Dont complicate it. Remember RETURN is the key.

I personally feel CALM is the important point of Investment. I do not care is white or bad cat, as long as they know to catch rat.

Thanks.

Hi Goldeneggs,

I have read some of your articles and benefit from it. But, sorry to say I am not totally agree after you have compared both evergreen and Hevea. To be frank, I have owned both.

First, evergreen is about to kickstart its stream of revenue. Why I said so?
1) RTA (Ready To assemble Furtinure). The line just completed May 2016. In general, it will take 6 months for the line to stabilise. Thus, we yet to see the revenue kick in in 2QFY16 result. But What about Q3? In fact, Evergreen have one RTA line and this is the expansion. Will the gross margin being increased? I believe so

2) Do you know that why Evergreen revenue has been low compared to its peak performance in its glorious time? First, it has stopped one of the fibreboard line which has output of 60m. It is about 20% of current Malaysia output. Secondly, the particleboard line has been stopped for more than a year. It is because it is installing a new line in another plant and plan to consolidate it. It will be operational end of the year.

When you see Q4 report onwards, you will know evergreen in fact is undervalue and my target price for FY17 will be around RM1.6

I have sold evergreen this year around RM1.6 and i just bought back again at 0.93 to 0.94 a week ago based on TA and of cause FA I have done.

Anyway, I am not saying Hevea not undervalue. It has been pressed down and I see it will continue to shine due to demand from its higher quality particleboard.

Both shares has made me handsome profit. I am glad to own them. I hope this round they will give me good christmas gift. Hahaha..so fast preparing for Christmas.

If not mistaken, the chance of braking 0.06 is very high in short term (1 month time). Triangle formation is on the way.

Hi Bone,

May I know why the recent quarter gross margin has been squeezed

Hi Thanks growthvalueinvesting. Itry to call their office but unable to get through. No email contact as well

The warrant exercise price is RM1.5. It means warrant currently is underwater. This valves business is quite resilient. Unless, the company has embarked a strong marketing otherwise, it will be just a gradual growth or stagnant.

I yet to study in details of the efficiency of the company. But, at least management is not stringent in rewarding shareholder. I not sure when do reference to its peak time (2013), why EBIT margin is high at 18% compared to recent around 15%?

Revenue still maintain, but market price it at 13x during FY2013. Will market rerate it now? If only if there is growth or improvement in bottomline.

TA wise, I think the consolidation yet to complete. It will be downwards or stagnant for a while.

No offence to anyone just simply my personal view. I must thank Icon for his many great articles. I have benefited a lot.

Thanks for the blog. I have read through the 2015 AR and done some quarterly report analysis. Based on this servicing and selling instrument industry, the GP is very much dependent on what machines it sold. Thus, profit could be fluctuating as seen in 2015. The recurring income still not strong as seen in managed services. Not much information found in the cloud services they aiming. I totally agree that buying the remaining of QSI will boast the bottomline. If based on shares of associates from latest 2Q16 report. QSI can contribute more than RM1 mil per quarter. Again, this still depends on what project they get. Based on acting CEO, they will get a few big project in India.I hope it can be reflected in 4Q16 report as the acquisition only done at end of Sept (end of Q3, so doesn't expect much)


Few questions hope to get some answer
1)Other than India, which countries they are aiming to expand?
2)Which industries they aiming to focus on? What is Krono strength compared to competitior?
3) Which area Krono plan to focus to increase recurring income and any update?
4) For the cloud service, which industry or companies are interested in subscribing? Any revenue generated thus far?

One of the local companies provide similar cloud service is exabytes.

I have no doubt that Krono will shoot above RM0.3 based on fundamental and TA. However, whther it will pass through the listing price, the sustainability is critical.

FX gain is a double sided sword, it helps and it kills. I strip if off to know the efficiency of the real operation that if the margin is really maintain. From the analysis, yes, diaries division maintain PBT of around 7.7% if i strip off the forex gain. The only thing is Able Food still yet to reflect its earning visibility compared to 1Q2015 when Able Food starts operation. We shall see the margin increasing and revenue improve as well when the new packaging factory and warehouse in operation. There is no further update from management and I din see any further capital expenditure thus far in 2016. So, assumption is it is in operation probably still under commissioning. But after 2 quarters, shouldnt it be well operated?

We have to use lots of logic assumption as not much info provided. Thus, some figures in quarter report would provide some guidance for our guessing. Hope I am right.

1) As of 2Q 2016 performance, if I strip off the 3 mil FOREX gain, EPS will still be aound 0.07. (calculated based upon before bonus issue)
2) If based on EPS of 0.29, and PE=10x, the TP is around RM2.9 (ex bonus issue TP=1.087)
3) Cashflow has become very good in 2Q, inventory came down and short term trade facilities also very low with long term borrowing remain low
4) Cash has increased and it gives the group a chance to expand the milk powder lines in 2017.
5) The small MI at 2Q2016 0f 0.6mil, indicated the PAT of around 3 mil for Able food which produce milk powder.
6) This is still far away as 1Q2015 alaready achieve 3.7 mil PAT for Able Food.
7) The factory and warehouse is expected to complete by end of 2015 as indicated by the increase in capital ex and also in assets
8) Now, after 2 quarters after FY15, I expect the company should be more or least stable and should be able to provide a boast in revenue and increase in margin
9) My short/medium TP=1.087. Longer term TP=1.5

TA wise, the chart is getting ready

I have done detail quarter analysis from 201 till 2Q2016. During 2Q2016, company has spent 40mil on equipment purchase which is possible of the new RTA line. RTA will only start contribute on 3Q assuming it takes time for the commissioning and testing. 1Q and 2Q has seen major plan shut down and maintenance on Malaysia and Thailand plant which is done yearly. Now the remaining 2 quarters of 2016 should not seen any impact anymore. Company allocated 106 mil for capital expenditure, now only spent 70 mil. The remaining should be for MDF line moved to Segamat plant and particle board line upgrade which it has been idle since 2013. If everything runs smooth, we shall expect to see MDF line in Segamat starts to contribute by end of 3Q or 4Q and particle board should be by 2017. I am expecting some good result on 3Q due to RTA line and strong USD. Will price runs before 3Q result? I will think YES. Why? TA wise has shown the chart ready to breakout anytime. 1st medium (3 months time) target is RM1.2

If you look at it. .the increase is in defer tax..it means previously some if the revenue or income or expenses that used to be tax exempt is not approved and thus oldtown need to pay back in this quarter..it will not be a recurring tax

Going for 2nd round

Tguan will breakout today

it will move very soon...tighten your seat belt

will breakout today

Trap...be careful

Looks promising from TA

Gadang going to breakout

Could be a trap if today open high and close low

Today jhm. Going to breakout

After some consolidation expect to break out, very high possibilities new high

WTK is going to breakout soon

Technical wise, TA is ready to GO up

TA wise, 1.16 might not hold....just personal view

JHM is good company...However, TA wise, it looks like it will be sideway for sometimes.......This round of upmove seems like a trap...

TA wise the stock in distribution mode..it is sign of weakness

May I know where can I read your analysis

I have some gone through of the quarter report, the main few things causing it to be in loss

1) Malaysia operation in loss. It was mentioned due to high cost, reason unknown but the ATB project at the end. It could be higer cost when project ending they need to clean up those job. Furthermore, revenue not enough to cover the cost.

2) Forex loss: This could be due to loan in SGD and TWD. Both currency has gain compared to MYR. This has cause forex loss. and this compared to previous 2 quarter where they have forex gain of above 3m and 2mil. This is really a big sum if we look at net profit of 2 to 3 mil or even 10 mil. Thus, this is really a big impact

3) Equipment impairment loss: This could be due to ATB where project ends. Some equipment being spoilt and will not be used or whatsover. 0.5 mil for this particular items.

4) Singapore and Indonesia operation in loss: Singapore having a much higheer loss of above 1 mil. Reason: Higher cost, due to forex? Not sure, it could be if covert the business back to MYR and most of the project will be quoted before started.

Now, if we look at cashflow. It is fantastics. It is in very healthy stage. Due to very high depreciation, cashflow is great. Business wise, we always look at cashflow. No cash business will stuck. Payabables and receivables are reducing.

Is FRONTKN still have future?? Yes, unless their services are not required. They need to finetune the business to reduce cost to be consistently profitable and reduce reliance on Taiwan operation alone. This is about the efficiency of management of running the business. Secondly, how can they find new business to fill up Malaysia gap after ATB.

Hi TCB,

Could you please add me in your mailing list

andyhard1980@yahoo.com

Who is this Tan Chin Ling?

tocovid is self patented drugs right?

In my opinion, this stock already have no selling pressure...Guess most of the weak holders being washed out. It will slowly shoot past 60 sen...

Evergreen going for a midterm correction....At least 10-15% correction

Johotin consolidation completed. Ready to breakout.....

Paperplane..what do you mean top 30% vs 80%

wat good news?

Mmode going to burst

L&G-LA going to burst

zelan moving up soon

Duit, I have received your email thru andyhard1980@yahoo.com

Opensys is ready to move anytime...stay tuned

Guys..good money coming

andyhard1980@yahoo.com

Thanks

MMSV is ready to breakout anytime....stay tuned

so expect market up or down after annoucement?

Where is the financial report

Sometimes quarterly report dont mean anything for share movement. Of cause, if exceptional cases happen. I think Hevea is looking GOOD as wood and furniture cycle benefits it. However, it is so unpredictable if next Q would be GREAT or WORSE. If we can hold, definitely a new height can be achieved. Looking at the chart, I believe the upmove to retouch the RM2 is not far away. Whether it would break new high, I cant tell until the serious sign of weakness appear.