Appreciate the hard work, but how come petron Phillipines shut down half a quarter but sales volume still can maintain?

Haha u created a new category, ultimate superinvestor

Hahaha. Very funny.

Since most of MSC's raw material is important (Rahman Tin contributes less than half), it is likely that their weak production number is due to them unable to procure sufficient raw material, which I believe, are mostly from Myanmar.

For HengYuan, at this price, FCF/EV (before working capital) is 41%. That means if they can maintain the same profitability, the company can generate enough cash to buy the entire company in 2.5 years time. Similarly, for Petron, FCF/market cap is around 11%. Maybe you can find another company in Bursa that can boast of FCF/EV of 41%. None come close.

Thank you for the effort to formalise all these info into a easy to read writeup.

Surprisingly, this article sound a bit like Stocknanny. Just goes to show one can present an idea without pissing off everyone else.

How is it related to chicken?

Haha. OK, eagerly waiting for the next sialang stock!

Haha again u made my day. Keep up the ridiculously hilarious articles

Haha... I think the article is meant to be sarcastic lah

Thank you for the extensive research. Just a minor error, rapid is scheduled to commence operation in q1 2019, not 2020

Msc is closer to a smelter than a miner. Most of the ore material are imported, as ore from rahman tin constitute less than half of their raw material.

The last I heard, they still have not found a solution to increase the life of tin based rechargeable batteries, which holds 4x the charged compared to li-ion but deteriorates after a couple of recharges. Not sure about the latest development, but if they manage to solve this issue, demand for tin should skyrocket.

I'm very wary about companies that pay dividend from debt, such as the recent dividend from Southern Steel. Interim dividend was announced despite sharply higher borrowing. It's true that the long steel industry is finally turning around, but I'd rather if the company knock down their borrowing first. Having said that, I admire Hevea's persistence in paying down their USD denominated debt, at the time when USD is strengthening. If they have not done that and choose to pay out dividend instead, they would incur higher forex loss down the road.

So you have posted 6000+ comments on something you can't describe. No wonder your postings are regarded as spam.

It is hilarious that there are two posts by Stocknanny encouraging newbies to sailang everything, next to this post that warn against sailang everything. Hahaha.

Nobody likes an asshole. The way you bring others down to lift you and your master up is revolting. I'm surprised that it took that long for the community to react to your gibberish. Maybe you should ask your master to purchase the entire website and make you administrator, then u can ban anyone with alternative methods from yours from posting.

Also, Shandong Hengyuan is a state-owned enterprise, which makes it less likely to engage in fraud.

I don't think stocknanny's posts are opinions, they are just spam.

From this day onwards, whenever I see Stocknanny's post, I will just flag it. Dissenting and opposing views are most welcomed, but when Stocknanny invades a thread, he spews out so much rubbish he takes up half of the posts, making it impossible to have serious discussions. I suggest anyone who can't stand the Stocknanny invasion do the same.

Haha. Love the sarcasm.

Cool, now got sell side analyst oledi.

I sense a hint of sarcasm in your last paragraph hahaha.

There's no immediate need to upgrade. They are already Euro-4 compliant.

I saw the magnificent fcf too, and that attracted me to Petron. Over the past 4-years, oil price gone through ups and downs, but Petron is still able to generate plenty of cash. Why Shell and Exxon sold? My guess is that their business in Malaysia is only a tiny spec in their entire global empire. However, the new owners are from the 3rd world and they are definitely more hungry and eager to compete. I would say, probably even keener competitor than Petronas. Big oil doesn't care about the profit from their retailing, which is just a drop in the ocean, but hell that drop is pretty darn big to a company like San Miguel.

I just checked, both Petron and HY are eligible for short selling. If stocknanny thinks he is right and we are wrong, why not just short it kau kau. Come here and talk so much crap for what, spamming up the entire thread doesn't endear you to the i3 community, and doesn't fatten your wallet. What you should do is to short these stocks till mother cannot recognize on Wednesday, and then if you are right, you will be a billionaire. So, see you on Wednesday, I want to see long red bar when the market opens.

OK, I see now why our numbers differ slightly, I'm using 31/3/17 53.5, you are using 50.

I also counter checked Newmaster maid's numbers, I got
1Q16: 6.4
2Q16: 7.1
3Q16: 5.2
4Q16: 7.1
1Q17: 8.7
2Q17: 9.5
Numbers agree with his except for 2Q16, mine's higher. I have a paper by McKinsey&Company called "impact of low crude prices on refining". According to them, the immediate impact is improved profitability for refiners. The mass sell off, in my opinion, is a bloody rare opportunity to load up. And here's some excerpts from the paper:

"Developments in the downstream market in response to lower crude prices are generally following historical patterns of behavior. This typically progresses through three stages.

In the first stage, market volatility is the dominant force. Product prices often fall less quickly than crude as demand for products to build storage grows. This first phase normally comes to an end after a few months as soon as product price declines catch up with crude price declines.

In the second stage, supply and demand fundamentals stabilize resulting in a compression of refining margins. With lower crude prices, there is a general compression of most refining products spreads and differentials. Most spreads reflect the “cost” of transforming one crude or product into another, with most of the cost theoretically being equivalent to a loss of volume. At lower absolute prices, the cost of this volume loss declines, narrowing the spread. A good example is the narrowing of the light/heavy differential, evidenced by historical relationships between crude price and the light/heavy spread. Based on the light/heavy differential developments in the main hubs, the differential compression also seems to hold true in the case of the most recent crude price decline.

The third stage effect depends on how sustainable the new crude prices environment becomes. With sustained low prices, there will typically be a rise in demand for light products. This comes both directly from the reduced incentives to improve efficiency or boost non-oil based substitutes and from the indirect effect of lower prices on economic growth. However, this usually takes place only in the longer term, as both supply and demand typically need more time to react to changed crude prices."

We are at first stage, we are going to see $$$.

I use a rough calculation. According to Jay's notes, Petron made 60m in inventory gain in 2016. Opening price and closing price is 37.4 and 56.8, a difference of 19.4 For Jun17 so far, we have from 53.6 to around 45.5 today's price, a drop of 8.1. Do a simple ratio 60/19.4*8.1=25m. 25m loss is a needle prick for a company making 100m in profit.

Probability, I didn't go as detail as you into the computation, hopefully tomorrow is another holiday I still have time to work on it. I estimated that the stock loss for Mar17 is not as severe as the upcoming Jun30, because Brent crude dropped 6% in Mar17 vs 15% so far this quarter. So I've estimated inventory loss for Mar17 to be around 11m, which is somewhat offseted by 15m forex and derivative gains. With both non-recurring gain and loss more or less cancel themselves out, Mar17 net profit is more or less the core profit, I just deduct 25m inventory loss from 108m Mar17 net profit to arrive at eps 30 cents, which in my opinion, is enough reason for me to bet big. I'm also pleasantly surprised from Jay's notes that their main income is from retailing/marketing, not refinery, and that is fantastic news because earnings should be less volatile.

Uncle aunties losing their panties is not my responsibility. It is everyone for himself in the stock market. What I dislike, is reading nonsense. Do u know how much is shell and Exxon worth? Do u think they give a shit about their tiny ass business in Malaysia? Do u think they bother to put much effort to compete? So please, if u have nothing sensical to say, just don't post. It's annoying not only for me, but serious investors, to have to scroll through all your nonsense. My scroll button on my mouse is getting worn out bcoz of your nonsense.

Stocknanny is going to clog up half the space in petron's thread with his business sense. Horrible. Wish he just go away and stop spamming the thread. Look, use your head a bit ok. For shell and Exxon, their business in Malaysia is just a tiny spec in their entire global empire that they own. They don't really give a shit about giving up a tiny speck of sand ok. Unlike Exxon, petron is from 3rd world country, the business means a lot to them. As a result, they r way more aggressive than Exxon, and the results show they r winning market share. R u going to talk about business sense next and spam up the thread with hundreds of senseless posts? Damn hate it whenever stocknanny come and hijack the thread.

Can you please comment on Jaks in Jaks' forum? Please don't spam up the whole thread.

Damn sian have to deal with the 'accountant'. That's why they lock in inventory gain or loss, which is basically a mark-to-market exercise. They do that so that the reference price of that quarter is based on the opening price at the beginning of the month, not price 3-6 months ago. If not, what's the point of booking inventory gain or loss? Sian, going to see non-stop nonsense again.

I did a simple proportional study and estimated the stock loss for Q2 is around 25m. Since they make around 100m per quarter, that will shave off around a quarter of eps, i.e. 30 cents instead of 40 cents. Thanks Jay for the notes from Petron AGM.

Thank u sir for the numbers! Like like like!

No only that. Having the Chinese banks as financiers of the project is no guarantee that it will succeed. The story on the Sri Lankan failed Hambantota port shows that the Chinese government would very much prefer to have the project fail so that the debtors are subservient to Chinese interests than to have the project succeed. After all, the Chinese banks are an extension of the government, national interests may precede over financial interests.

*yawn*

If you check the the destination of the export sales, Indon and Myanmar is its biggest market for consumer products, and Vietnam and Myanmar for pharmaceuticals. These are red hot emerging markets growing at very fast pace with rapidly expanding middle class. That's why export grew rapidly.

31/12/13, cash 97.6m debt 900m
31/3/17, cash 205m debt 251m.

Got lose money ah? I mean seriously, from 1/1/13 to 31/3/17, we are looking at FCF generation of 991m for a 2b company.

Lose money? Forget about eps, why don't you look at fcf? In 2013, FCF is 96.5m. In 2014, it is 201m. In 2015, it is 295m. In 2016, it is 307m. For the past 3 years, FCF is consistently above 10% of market cap.

Since bulls need reinforcement, I also join in to get hentam lah. At the end of 2013, Petron had a net gearing of 0.93. And as at 31/3/2017, they are nearly net cash. Throughout the 3 years, crack spread has been through highs and lows, oil prices have also saw highs and lows. Regardless of oil price fluctuations, the business is highly cash generative. The ability of the company to pare down debt over the past 3 years is a testament to that. So if you all are scared of inventory write down, take a look across the border at a company called China Aviation Oil. When oil price collapsed and they had to do inventory write down, share price got crushed to 50 cents. It's sitting pretty at 1.70 now. If you cannot look past a single quarter of poor result, yes please sell. I'm sure there are many patient investors out there willing to look past the inventory writedown.

Unbelievable, there's more stocknanny's post than anyone else's in this thread, and probably in the entire i3 forum.

Well said.

There's a big contribution from 'other income' lah. Until management clarifies what is this, whether they are recurring or not is anybody's guess.

"it is unimaginable that one cannot cannot learn from a 84 years old with decades of experience and drives a Roll Royce." Can you tell me what is there to learn from Uncle Koon's latest article? There no new info beyond what he has already put forth again and again. Since there absolutely nothing to learn that has not already been promoted again and again, it does sound like a shameless promotion piece written with the sole purpose to jack up the share price. Well good luck. If Uncle Koon think's that it's a fantastic achievement to push up share price using his money, let's see how he can exit without causing a collapse.

"Investing is not about head i drive Rolls Royce, tail I commit suicide." love the quote kc. Investing is about getting the highest return AT THE LOWEST RISK POSSIBLE.

I don't know how many articles I have to read on continuous promotion on jaks and Sendai and business sense and dynamic investing. It is damn sian reading the same old again and again with no new contents or new ideas. It's like your grandparents continuous nagging, damn annoying and can't get rid of them.

I'm not saying it will, just saying it may, that the housing market in Australia, specifically Melbourne and Sydney is moving from extreme exuberance to a slowdown, and that could be a negative for Kimhin. Alarm bells are sounding for Australian housing with bank downgrades, tightening lending and hostile foreign investor policies. Construction activity is slowing and likely to slow further as Melbourne and Brisbane enters apartment gluts.