Yes thanks to the organisers for the great effort.

Congrats to OTB for an impressive multi-year run.

a. for soojinhou: he didn't update dividends received for Jaycorp, SAM, Canone

At 52 place, no need to update lah, even if I update it is still outside top 20. Congrats to top 20 this year and OTB for an impressive multi-year run.

Good luck. Tough year for 2017 to find growth. Trump, rm depreciation, poor economic growth, won't be easy. Wish u success.

He's a businessman in stock market. He will do whatever it takes to maximize profit. That includes breaking disclosure rules and lie through his teeth to influence share price. He doesn't have any ethics when it comes to profit.

Icon8888, I wasn't talking about recent slide in gold price and recent price movement of CNMC. I was referring to the period 2014-15 when CNMC was ramping up production and nobody bothered despite magnificent FCF and PE as low as 5. Gold had stabalized at around 1100, but there were a bunch of dumb technical analysts calling for 800 despite average global production cost at 1200. Anyway, CNMC was left to rot below 20 cents for prolonged periods. I stayed patient and enjoyed the market rerating to 60 cents when catalyst came along and suddenly everyone sing praises like as if CNMC was just listed yesterday. My point is precisely yours, things are not as simplistic as "golden rule" in the share market

Icon8888, oh definitely not as simplistic as that, and definitely not as simplistic as the "golden rule" from trumpet blowing old man. That's why I like to make fun of his "golden rule". But of course, most of the time it works for me also, no one can resist the allure of a fast growing company. But even I I wouldn't dare to blow trumpet and call it my golden rule like it's some kinda Shaolin secret ya know.

Icon8888, it works if the growth in earnings is beyond market expectation. If growth is lower than market expectation, share price might actually decline.

My cnmc goldmine posted increasing profits for 8 consecutive quarters, but share price went down instead of up, just because it is related to a maligned sector, gold mining. Maybe golden rule applies only to kyy stocks coz he has the financial capacity to push up his recommendations to make his rule work. If that's the case, what's there to boast?

Activist! Support!

Thank u for an intelligent reply probability.

Probability, allow me to offer my opinion. Anti dumping duties are not set arbitrarily. It is set to bring up the price of goods to fair market value. If Posco is only slapped with a 3% tariff, it doesn't mean that it is extra cheap to import, it just means they weren't marking down their product as aggressively as Chinese exporters that are slapped with 20% tariff. So, if tariffs are designed well, a product from Posco with 3% tariff should sell for the same price as a Chinese product with 20% tariff. As such, I'm more inclined to believe that the weak results of mid-stream steel players is due to high inventory of cheap imported goods. Eventually, when these inventories are exhausted, prices will revert to international prices, plus tariff of course. I may be wrong, let's see.

Back in the days when ppl r angry they elected ho chi Minh, Mao Zedong, fidel Castro and Che Guevara to fxck some shit up. And boy did they fxck some shit up. Trump? Nah. He deeply vested in business interest and he won't break his own rice bowl. He ain't no Karl Marx that's for sure.

RM1.50? Wait lah. *yawn*

Well, maybe rubber makers will all just relocate to Rubber City in Thailand. Thailand is dangling a lot of carrots, while BNM is using the stick.

Wracking 35% tariff against American companies will not pass congress because it is against the ethos of free trade of the Republican party.

I believe trump is a tok onli president and he won't be able to do 90% of the things he promised.

Checkmate, nice one KC

Foreign stocks allowed?

Sostupid, that's why professional analysts temper their statements with disclaimers and potential risks to balance the optimism of their analyses. Because nobody is certain of the future, investing will always be an operational in calculated risk taking. Except perhaps for stock god kyy, who writes with absolute certainty.

Good to see KC Chong taking on the old fox KYY. The only thing consistent about old fox is U-turns. First he swears off i3 and in 2 weeks time returned like an addicted crackhead. Next, he went from must buy to not so bad to I was wrong sell to those who don't sell are stupid. He also says be a contrarian, and then said charts don't like. Like WTF? Through all this, he wrote with absolute certainty, which makes he look stupid when he executes a U-turn. He didn't even apologize for breaking disclosure rules. KYY is the obnoxious grandfather you wish you didn't have, so unfortunately we are stuck with him.

On the bright side, masteel's export is up sharply at 22.5% of revenue vs 12% ytd.

I believe segmental profit does not include administrative charges, usually imposed by holding company to its subsidiaries, which typically eat up a significant part of the segmental profit. It is usually imposed in exchange for services such as accounting and it is needed to feed the people at HQ.

Hevea is the best among furniture play because it benefits from weak rm and the most insulated from any Trump protectionist policy because it doesn't export to the US.

Well, to avoid Donald Trump's enacting tariff against all imports, safer bet is export counters that don't sell to US, like Hevea and Tguan.

Prominent investor asked Gadang to adjust depreciation to smooth out the profit. Depreciation model is usually a linear model over a set number of years. To add a bump and a trough in a straight line is indeed cheating. Linear means linear. Again prominent investor shows he care not about corporate governance, he cares only himself and his profits.

Thanks for sharing. Hope u continue to impart knowledge for the benefit of the investment community

Everprosper Food Industries Sdn. Bhd. Key Developments
Thong Guan In Talks With COFCO
Feb 11 16
Thong Guan Industries Bhd (KLSE:TGUAN) is in talks to work with COFCO. “We have not decided on the joint-venture details. It could be equity participation in Everprosper Food Industries Sdn. Bhd., a new subsidiary of ours, which includes all related subsidiaries, or another new company we will form. It depends on the project size [of the organic instant noodles venture],” said Ang See Meng, Director of Thong Guan. COFCO, he said, has expressed its interest in taking up at least a 40% stake in the venture, which he expects to take off sometime in 2016.

Looks like it.

Thanks for sharing. Just a note on Cofco. Although China market is massive, instant noodle consumption is in terminal decline. Recent results from TingYi, the largest instant noodle maker in China is disappointing. Chinese are moving away from instant noodle in favor of healthier and more expensive alternatives like freshly prepared food as purchasing power and quality of life goes up. Also, China transition from an manufacturing based economy to a service based economy means less poor migrant workers, typically the biggest consumer of instant noodles. Having said that, organic imported instant noodles from Thong Guan are definitely a premium product and it may still be popular.

Nice work

You forgot to mention, ykgi has underperformed because insiders have been disposing in the open market.

Haha love the sarcasm

"If US or Europe impose Anti Dumping on China product and CSC get ready for export, then sky is the limit for CSC. Choo Bee is already mulling the possibilities of export."

US has already slapped tariff against Chinese CRC.

Love the sarcasm haha

KYY is a businessman, when he promotes, he does so to advance his own interests. It is business as usual.

Steady, u dare to stick your neck out and make a precise forecast. Power to u!

Wah so many posts for 1 guy. KYY must feel very proud to be such a prominent personality in i3. Honestly, KYY is a good guy, but business is business. Look at Bill Gates, he's one of the biggest philanthropist in the world, but when he does business, he's ruthless. Just ask Netscape and Dell how ruthless he was.

KYY promoting his stocks but turning off comments is business. KYY quietly buying up substantial shareholder stake without disclosing is business. KYY encouraging you all to maximise profit by using margin financing is business. There is no emotion is business, goal is maximise profit using whatever means necessary. After all, stocks market is a zero sum game. The money he makes must come from someone else's pocket right.

I find it strange he get offended by a posting from some strangers he's never met before. I also find it strange people gets very offended by the way he conducts "business" in i3. I think if all parties understand it's just business, then there will be peace. There is no goodwill in the stock market. Everyone is out there for their own self interest. If he ever dump stocks on you after he ask you to buy, remember, it's just business.

But he's a good guy no doubt. He has a big heart and he donates much of what he earns away. So KYY, if you are reading this, when I made a complain against you to Bursa and SC, it's just business. No hard feelings.

Lest forumers mudah lupa, kyy broke disclosures rules by 1) failure to divulge his interest despite crossing the 5% threshold and 2) dividing his stake through other parties acting-in-concert. So sure he's more than welcomed to post in i3, but he ain't no saint and he is after his own interest, like a businessman would. Having said that I would love to see equal treatment of forumers in i3. So far kyy has been elevated to the status of a mini god with comments in his post turned off. Why is that? Does his shit smells better than ours?

I think FD's return is higher than icap's

Relax guys. It's good to have dissenting opinions in investment.

YiStock, if I'm not mistaken, flat steel is folded and welded at the adjoining edges to form steel pipe, so yes they should benefit from CRC tariff.

Thanks for a great writeup. Just a comment. Construction players like gadang, gkent, kimlun, gamuda are unlikely to benefit from CRC tariff because they uses predominantly long steel. CRC is flat steel and are used mainly for manufacturing.

Thank you for a well balanced article. While capacity cuts in China has supported prices, it appears that the cuts are not deep enough. That prompted the Chinese government to push provincial government to be more aggressive. So if the capacity cuts are not very severe, why did steel price shoot up? Perhaps it is due to the overheating property market in China. Unfortunately, many provincial government is now introducing measures to cool the property market. Will demand for steel drop if property in China cools?

Do note that the solid FCF is drawn down from receivables (from 161m 7 quarters ago to 117m latest) and inventories (from 184m 7 quarters ago to 104m latest).

"The average return of the unit trusts investing in Malaysia under “Equity Malaysia” as shown in Table 1 below return a total of 34.2%, or a CAGR of 6.1%, a shade below the return of the broad market." No better than buying a bunch of REITs and sleep on it.

Poor comparison of EG with semicon companies. EG is a contract manufacturer, a better comparison is VS

Thank you probability. That's indeed a point to ponder.

Thank you for the 3 part series. Very well done. I have a doubt I can't find a satisfactory answer. According to Mycron's annual report, which I have also corroborated using Megasteel's website, Megasteel has the largest CRC capacity in Malaysia at 1.5m ton per annum. It was running at very low capacity. According to Mycron's report, in 2014, it was running at a mere 3.3% of capacity. Megasteel's capacity is almost 3x Cscsteel's and almost 7x Mcron's. If CRC is so lucrative, why isn't Megasteel ramping up CRC utilization, instead of closing down its plant? It can theoretically shut off just its HRC segment, and just import cheap HRC from China like what the rest of the CRC players are doing now. Why need to shut everything down if CRC is so lucrative?

YiStock, your 三字经 一流！

During the last election, O&G stocks got sold down like mad before the election because traders fear a change of gomen will affect Petronas' massive capex to boost production. I hope to find such opportunities in the market this time round.