FutureEyes, carbon or oxygen doesn't affect the financial numbers you present. Thanks for the computation. I've stopped adding lionind after the megasteel deal was announced. Hopefully the circular on the acquisition will shed more light on the financial implication of the acquisition.

I have to applaud the research you have done. Don't worry about Jon Choivo or Ricky Yeo pouring cold water on your work, we are after big money and we want to position ourselves BEFORE market reacts. They are more conservative and prefer to buy and hold for long term and so they won't be interested in cyclicals. I appreciate you showing how you derived your estimation of the throughput of the Labuan plant, because that's a figure I can't get from probability's writeup. The supporting data you provided appears to support your profit derivation, and I look forward to the company's results to confirm your thesis.

Jon Choivo, yes, high price leads to higher supply. But do note that in the case of steel, the rise in steel price we see now is not extraordinary, but the NORMALISATION of profits. The severe depression a few years ago was abnormal supply caused by dumping. Don't forget also, the massive supply from China is due to the propping up of loss making steel plants, or zombies, which should have been closed a long time ago. China itself has allocated massive funds to assist ex-steel workers who lost their jobs as China undergoes reform and stop the practice of subsidizing ailing state owned enterprises.

May I point out a big error in the article? Iron making is the process of removing OXYGEN, not CARBON. Iron ore exists as oxide, ie rusts. To make steel, you need to remove the OXYGEN, typically with high calorific carbon such as coking coal. At high temperature, carbon combined with oxygen to produce CO2 thus Fe2o3 becomes Fe. Carbon is then added to Fe in minute quantity to create a steel alloy that is strong and tough.

KC love the sarcasm haha

What's there to blame, who can predict bail out? Nobody can lah. Want to blame blame bad luck lah. Those who wants to exit, good idea. Those who wants to stay becoz it's too cheap, make sure you vote against the acquisition. WC cannot vote becoz it's a related party transaction. Who is Dynamic Horizon Holdings Limited, they have 10.94% stake. Wonder how they will vote.

I'm against the deal. Megasteel is still running at loss of more than RM10m despite being shuttered. And cost to restarting Megastill will also be incurred. So Lionind's shareholder will end up bleeding while waiting to see if WC can turn around Megasteel. It's a poor deal for minority shareholders. Those who think so can email in to register your protest. I used this:

plwong@lion.com.my, quahlc@lion.com.my

Protest against Megasteel acquisition


Ms Wong and Ms Quah,

I’m a Lionind shareholder and I represent ____ shares. I protest vehemently against the acquisition of Megasteel, and on such unfavorable terms. I cannot imagine there is any benefit to acquire an asset that causes Lionind’s net asset per share to shrink, and still bleed money in the ten millions, in addition to start up costs which the shareholders have to bear, when the possibility of turning it around is hard to gauge, given Megasteel’s past record. This deal is not fair nor reasonable and I hope the management retracts this proposal to bail out a sister company, which clearly benefits the owner at the expense of minority shareholders. Thank you.

Thank you probability for the news on Banting.

Then sue, sue the hell out of WSJ. Don't be a ballless coward like fatty who don't even dare to step on US soil to fight for the assets that were seized from him.

Nike's exposure to China is just 12% of sales

China produces more steel than the rest of the world combined. That's why what China does has a huge implication on the global steel market. And that's also why it's premature to sound the death knell for the local steel industry because of property and infra slowdown, if Chinese domestic price remain buoyant, for Malaysian domestic price cannot fall that much lower, before export becomes an attractive option.

I've deleted my comment, so u can have the whole thread to yourself.

ks55, what you said is true, the impairment on Parkson is huge. However, that's a non-cash item. With regards to operating cash flow before changes in working capital, Lionind netted RM263m over the past 12 month. At 89 cents, that's 2.3x its market cap of RM606m. That's real hard cold cash OK. Whatever risk of impairment, or cyclical, or end of tariff or WC's debt, or whatever negatives anyone wishes to say, yes they are all true, but the price way more than account for all the negatives. Don't forget, Lionind posted an annualised PE of 2.5, despite all the negatives that people say about property slowing down bla bla. Can you find anything cheaper than this? I don't know, I can't.

qqq3, who cares man. If a stock trades as low as PE 2, you makes back your entire investment in 2 years time. So what if it is cyclical, as long as conditions stay as where it is for 2 years, you recoup your investment. That's how cheap Lionind is.

I missed the earlier drama. Thank you for the kind words, and all the best in your investment. I think prospect is excellent, but q2 might be a bit soft, with 1 month puasa and 1 month World Cup, I think employees only work for 1 month only hahaha.

Dumb post. Chinese domestic steel price is equivalent to Malaysian prices. With or without tariff, msian rebar players r raking in the profits.

"why do you want to buy a share that depends on super profits from protectionists policies ( increased tarifs) ? "

Uncle, do you know the domestic price of Chinese rebars are equivalent to Malaysian domestic prices? That means, domestic steel players do not need protectionist policies to make big money since it is uneconomical for Chinese steel makers to dump their products overseas. Before you shoot off your mouth sailang this sailang that, I suggest you use your grey matter a bit.

You have dissapointed a lot of ppl today by saying 1.5m is the number to shoot for. And I agree with u, anything less will be quite scary should big bear comes visit.

There's a better proposal. That is for unkle koon to loan the money to jaks directly, with interest of course. In that way, the share price will not be affected, and the company will still raise the needed funds.

Thanks for the effort.

Like! What's your secret sauce?

Just sell some handbags mate, easy.

Affirmative action should not be based on race, but class. Why should Mercedes driving Malays receive assistance that should be channeled to the needy Malays instead? Anyway, it's not a total loss for crony stocks, but they need to grow up and compete. Those who have hitherto win contracts from who they know rather than what they know, they are surely in trouble now. Investors like us will need to separate the chaff from the wheat.

The comparison with Shinkansen is inappropriate because the fare charged on Shinkansen is very high whereas the fare for HSR is capped by the busiest air route in the world ie KL to Singapore, which can go as low as RM100.

PE=2 70 cents, PE=3 RM1.05

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/who%E2%80%99s-blame-delay-lrt-job

Uob's report is what we called horse behind canon. It could have looked brilliant if it was issued few months ago, but not after a 30-40% sell off. With the sell off, the negative outlook is more or less priced in. China rebar price stands at rm2.5k/ton now. Now matter how thin margin will be, asp is unlikely to go much lower than China's domestic price. Also lionind has the potential to double capacity with johor antara and banting. In a challenging market, the best one to hold is the one with fast expanding capacity.

He's compromised. Probably bought off with a nice sum from the stolen 1mdb funds. Better ditch him now than to have him ditch PH later if he is re-elected.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-refiners-are-primed-for-profits-1522454400

Here are some facts. Transportation cost for oil products are cheap. A gallon of gasoline cost a nickel (ie, 5 cents) to be transported from US to Europe. That's 2.5% for a gallon sold at USD2. That means, because transportation cost is so low, the concern on oversupply is not Malaysia, nor regional, but from a global perspective. Fortunately, globally, there is a shortage of refining capacity, and will likely remain in shortage in the near term. Don't forget, Petron is unable to fulfill it's domestic gasoline sales and has to import from overseas. Also, US crude is being sold even to the far reaches of the world to China. That's why, it's myopic to think of Rapid as a threat to HY or Petron since the cost of transporting oil is so cheap.

The super lalang will change his mind to support BN tomorrow. Hahaha.

My intentions are noble. I write articles to help you make money. HAHAHAHAHA

Haha super investor? More like super manipulator, or super lalang!

That's not the way I read it. The article says that the crack spread for RON 92 gasoline vs Dubai crude has been widening due to the drop in price of Dubai crude. Dubai crude is exactly the type of oil that a complex refinery like HY's processes, which is heavy and sour. Isn't the entire argument on HY's competitive edge about how capable are they in processing heavy and sour stuff? They can't be stuck with Brent only if they have such a fantastic plant right?

"Singapore benchmark crack spreads have posted a strong and steady uptrend over the past six months. For gasoline, the spread between second-month Singapore 92 RON gasoline and Dubai swaps averaged $12/b so far this quarter. The spread averaged $11.21/b in Q4 last year and $10.78/b in Q3, Platts data showed." This article is written on 22/3/18, 'so far this quarter' would therefore include almost the entire Q1. Perhaps, it's time to consider the possibility that futures doesn't correlate well with HY's result, and doesn't correlate well with actual crack spread.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wtis-rebound-may-aid-s-korean-oil-product-exports-to-us/

Whatever the outcome of your challenge to the board, I applaud your effort to keep them on their toes.

"In any event, records done during bull periods don't mean much. Its how you do during recession that counts." Well said, all the best for 2018.

I hate to be defending the IBs, coz I think they are generally excessively positive on their calls. But still, all IB reports are very transparent how their TP is derived, the valuation method they use, and why they think it's a reasonable benchmark. You are free to disagree with the way they value the company if you don't agree with their method.

Posted by probability > Mar 21, 2018 07:57 PM | Report Abuse

Jinhou, proper risk assessment, misrepresentation is something very subjective.

Yes of course it is subjective. But then do you think SC will allow a John Loh case to happen in Malaysia like how it happened in Singapore? Don't you think they have the resources to drag you to court and fight for years until you are exhausted? SC is responsible for the accurate dissemination of corporate information to ensure a fair and orderly market. A misrepresentation of any public listed company should be prosecuted, and the government has plenty of lawyers at their disposal to do so.

Yes I think if you carry out a proper risk assessment, you cannot be accused of misrepresentation.

You are wrong, all professional analysts discusses risks to their call. In fact, all IPO prospectus carries a long section of risks too. The issue is misrepresentation, promoting a stock on reward without proper risk assessment. That's illegal.

The incessant promotion of a counter base on reward, without a fair assessment of risks, is misrepresentation. Misrepresentation is illegal and should be prosecuted as a pump and dump operation. The stock god is another one of them who talks incessantly about reward without any mention of risks. He can write countless articles signing the same song. He might be the next person with a bullseye behind his head.

Hahaha welcome back stocknanny, dont go around annoying the shit out of other forumers lest you get the flag treatment again.

In a research paper in Facts Global Energy, it was posited that global refinery utilization will remain tight above 86% up to 2025. As we know, utilization at that rate is considered fully utilized. Your analysis fail to address the causes that result in significant improvement in crack spread at the present moment compared to previous years. Due to poor profitability in the past, oil majors have underinvested in refineries. Look, a shutdown caused by Hurricane Harvey caused mayhem across the entire refinery sphere, to the point HY is able to book massive profits halfway across the globe. What does that tell you? It indicates that at the present moment, there is a shortage of refining capacity globally with very little spare capacity, where utilisation rate is at 83%. Yesterday's news revealed that US gasoline inventory is low, while crude inventory remains high, a condition that's very favorable to refineries. Even though crack spread has softened somewhat since January, most of the fact point to a tight market in the refinery business which will keep crack spread buoyant in the near term, at the very least.

Jaks pp is only good for shareholders if it's given to kyy. Then kyy will be obligated to do an MGO and for sure for a goose that lays the golden egg, he will be very willing to take the company private. Or will he? Come on, god of stock, please put your money where your mouth is, if Jaks is the goose that lays the golden egg, please take it private. We all want you to be the richest person in the entire universe.

Come on guys, for RM1k per year, do you all expect OTB to manage your portfolio for you? As far as I understand, he's providing an advisory service, and portfolio management is still under your responsibility. If you want a fire-and-forget solution, you all can buy mutual funds and be happy with 6-7% return. For a RM1k fee, you all expect to beat the market without putting in any effort, gimme a break man, where got such thing.

This is illegal.

This is illegal.

I'm not here to dissect share price movement. I'm just pointing out to you that market capitalisation can indeed swing wildly based on small number of trades, because the total number of shares involved in any given day is only a small fraction of the entire share capital of the company.

2) If said individual controls < than 5% outstanding shares, is it possible to move the MCAP

arv18, actually, your question reflects poor understanding of the stock market. In any given trading day, the amount of shares traded is just a tiny fraction of the total amount of share in issue. As a result of that, market cap can be pushed up and down fairly easily, and can definitely be done with less than 5% shares as long as trades are carried out aggressively. That's why, attention grabbing headlines like how many billions was lost in a day are actually quite a common occurrence because the small fraction of transactions compared to the entire share capital actually have an extraordinary impact on market capitalisation.

No worries, the public don't realise Proverbs is written by the richest man who ever lived.

I lost nothing from stock god's pump and dump so no I won't file a complaint. But I did file a complaint against kyy violating non disclosure rules after crossing the 5% threshold. Well it worked didn't it? Nowadays he obediently disclose all his purchases and sales for stocks he's a significant investor. So those who feel they are victimised should take it up with the authorities.