Calvin, as a pioneer in eB2B, i would say e-commerce is not practical at this moment.

亞航這盤生意如履薄冰，如今山雨欲來，新一輪插水將歷史重現！

I came across Airasia stock years ago after reading a book "Airasia Story". I thought: "Wow, its really making money, amazing!" Fatt tat loh
At that time, Airasia was just about to start KL - Singapore, after Tony publicly lobbying the government for a while. At that time, they book "deferred taxation" as income, and was making roughly 800m a year. I thought: " Fatt tat loh". After KL-SG, should make at least 2b a year. But it didn't.
Then Airasia starts their regional expansion, i thought after AAT listed, fatt tat loh, but....
Then oil price starts falling, RM2.9x is the highest.
i went to a AAX IPO, Tony said Airasia should worth RM6. Bullshxt.....

Now MYR starts to fall again, next quarter figure will look less than satisfactory.

風緊，扯乎！

Wait for september result and see....

I checked a bit, not in details.

It listed the indonesian arm in 2013.

I read a bit on the indonesian listed subsidiary, september results released, not very good.

Malaysian business shown improvements, probably that's where they have been putting efforts on. When business were booming (back in 93, so they go to list in Indon), they lost their focus.

Well, Mr. Koon, first of all, i think you should continue writing as you can see the Malaysian market is full of stupid people! Most are amateur who doesn't know anything about business. See it as if you represent the good vs the noobs who goreng without going through their mind. I wouldn't want to see you giving up!

Don't write for the sake of your ego, but write for the sake of young talent who really wants to learn and succeed. Do something bigger than yourself. That maybe your legacy!

For a moment i did believe uncle Koon, fortunately i went to check a few Parkson at China. Sorry, no gertop, no addnice shoes there.

Sorry, no distributor operating stores either.

If SC wants to act, it would have done it years ago. Sorry, you are on your own!

Always verify the important facts.

Xingquan is such an interesting story.

Finally, 爆煲啦！

Search for Gertop in Taobao, most items has zero sales.

Habislah!

VT gang likes to fry and sell. Saying "no brain" is a bit harsh though, just different style.

It doesn't add up!

老朱這個發現真了不起！應該給你頒一個獎！

老朱，很多人迷夢未醒。我在計算二月季報時，意外發現成本增加的比收入快，跟你的分析其實是殊途同歸，把靚麗的表皮撕開後，看見醜陋的內在。

也可以說貼了進去子公司那裡。

TF揸重貨冇得返轉頭，很多人還是有選擇的。

我一直都認為TF在搞航空方面是不錯的,你讓他搞金融，可以搞垮幾間銀行。

老朱，一句「資本錯配」，妙！

twot，看來你還是不懂。你太懶了，應該拿一張紙，一支筆，一個計算機，用一個制表軟件好好算一算。

盲人騎瞎馬，夜半臨深池。

言盡於此！

twot，品牌價值？

上千美元的一盒巧克力，上萬美元一個包包，那才有品牌價值。

如果你加入亞航，你只可以賣便宜，請問價值在哪裡？

blackspy，說得好！知人之明！

亞航二零零四年十一月上市，上市價一塊六左右（忘了），現在十二年了，股價RM1.90，為什麼？同樣一個Tony啊。

Twot，我說，亞航並不符合巴菲特的選股精神，這點應該是沒有疑問。

上一季Net Operating profit為什麼會高？你有沒有研究為什麼？那麼多寫AIRASIA的人，只有icon8888有提到，所以我說這是他的了不起。其他人根本沒有讀報告就亂吹。

答案應該是：

一、很多人的投資年限不夠長，巴菲特幾歲就學習股票投資。到現在八十多年了。

二．一、理智。很多人突然賺到錢後都發傻了，如曇花一現！心理素質非常重要。巴菲特天生愛讀資料，即使再枯燥他也覺得很有味道。一般人肯讀年報的已經是鳳毛鱗角了。

二．二、對自己的錯誤承認、反省、改過。

二．三、多算者勝，少算者不勝。對於「有問題」的數字一再研究。「It doesn't add up!」的事情必須進行徹底的研究。（很多上市公司的資料如果你只看一季或短期的數據，是很容易被騙到的。自己加加減減乘乘除除看看，你會發現很多數字是很離譜的。）

三，然後才是對事情有深刻，獨到的見解。比如對航空業的看法，對競爭的看法，對Branding的看法，都是用大量的數據算出來的，沒有僥倖的餘地。

巴菲特掌管波克夏其實也有很多難處，就是公司太大了，很多投資雖然購入初期賺取豐厚的利潤，後期就變得平凡了。也因為他本人其實是相當有情有義的，他會勉力維持，盡量不裁員。

red_85, true!

TWOT, 大錯特錯！冷眼說的最重要兩個字是「風險」，關於亞航的問題、挑戰與風險，很多人都在論壇講過。因為風險，所以不應該買，這當然是他個人理智的一個選擇，因為他還有很多風險更低，贏面更大的選擇。「不願買錯！」

冷眼說基本面重要，那亞航負債高，淨利率低，子公司良莠不齊，行業競爭激烈，是藍籌股嗎？

巴菲特還是持有航空公司的股票，他也是經過很多年的分析才得到這樣的結論。「零和」遊戲，折舊過重，etc

巴菲特說，你要（從年報中）留意公司過去的表現，說過的話有沒有做到？做錯了事情有沒有反省，有沒有認錯，有沒有改過？ 【你看之前幾季為什麼亞航會虧錢？因為借了美元債券！那東尼有沒有反省，有沒有認錯，有沒有改過？沒有囉！】還有很多很多....

巴菲特對於折舊有獨特的看法，他說不應該用淨利來推算價值，應該用Owner's Earning，簡單來說是Net Profit + Depreciation - Capital Expenditure。折舊一年大概5-7億，Capital Expenditure 一年十六億，你調整了其實亞航Owner's Earning全是負數。

零和遊戲，其實馬來西亞航空業應該是負數。巴菲特用一個簡單的算法，你將多年來投資進入各航空公司的總數，跟那麼多年來所有航空業者的盈利比較，那個負數大得嚇死你。

In short, Warren Buffett said, through reading Annual Reports of the companies in the past, notice did management deliver what they promised? Did they admit their mistakes in the past? [If you look at the past few quarters results, AA suffered massive losses from USD loan! So did Tony admit the mistake? No loh!]

Warren Buffett uses Owner's earning instead of Net Profit to calculate real value of the company. Owner's earning is net profit add back depreciation and minus capital expenditure. Depreciation of AA is approximately 500-700 million a year, capital expenditure is about 1.6b. It's a big NO NO for Airasia if you consult Warren Buffett.

Zero Sum Game. If you add up all those investment put in the Malaysia airline industry and add up all the profit numbers made by airline companies, most likely you will get a big negative figure. Negative Sum Game in fact.

TWOT，讀書必須深入，別說「盡信書，不如無書」。你看，冷眼、巴菲特都說用了很多年才想通航空股的道理，這個道理叫做「公司很棒但不賺錢背後的原因」。

yflawrence, I know TF always guess wrong on the direction of fuel prices. He NEVER got it right!

Keep it clean and no personal attack or discrimination please.

飛彈，icon8888 did a good job in analyzing Airasia. As far as i know, he is the only one to point out the operating lease income was unusually high, others just "tembak saja". Lately he is a bit exaggerate about Airasia, but given his view that Ringgit remains weak, it's fair if he ignores a great deal of other companies.

飛彈，first, 1MDB, the government or IPIC all have the money to pay the interest.
Second, why 1MDB don't want to pay it? Ah Jib knows what will happen in case of a default, bad reputation, risk of other 1MDB bond, Malaysian Bond explode blah blah blah.
He is willing to risk the future of the country to maintain his innocence claim that he did not knew the money was transferred into the wrong company.
That is truly unexpected!!!!

Who cheat who?

In fact, if you follow the story, investigators already trace whereabout are the monies. The Malaysian side got to insist they did actually paid them even though both sides knew "duit tolong sama tolong" already. With Ah Jib insists our sides knew nothing of the heist, well, then it is the officers kena tangkap only.

There seems to be much confusion who sold and to who.

1. "by Tune Air", it should be straight forward, the seller is Tune Air.
2. You see it happened in different dates, so it should be open market trades. The price is not announced. (So it cannot be Tune Air sold shares to DAA).
3. In favour of, could just mean "agreed by DAA". Such words are common with Tune Air previous announcement, just ignore it?

newbie92, please notice Tune Air is the major shareholder of Airasia. However, it is Tune Live (a 50:50 JV between Kamarudin & TF) that is doing the PP. Never DAA involve in PP. So you should be worry??

There seems to be much confusion who sold and to who.

1. "by Tune Air", it should be straight forward, the seller is Tune Air.
2. You see it happened in different dates, so it should be open market trades. The price is not announced. (So it cannot be Tune Air sold shares to DAA).
3. In favour of, could just mean "agreed by DAA". Such words are common with Tune Air previous announcement, just ignore it?

Kakashit，對極了！

xiaofu，問題是，蛋糕店老板應該偷偷把雞蛋賣掉，不可張揚，萬一讓雞蛋公司知道，便宜雞蛋就買不成了！

我覺得的確Tune Air是賣股了，沒有什麼複雜的。In favour of DAA可能只是表示他贊成而已。

有相當的Typo，不容易讀。

非常詳盡的資料，謝謝！有空我再慢慢算！

不過一堆不太利好的消息出爐，先緩一緩！

老兄，TNB有解釋啊，只是你不明白而已！明白了以後，相信不相信又是另一回事了。單是從這點來看，是可以買TNB的。

寫得很好！

只是對「赤兔」一說很有意見！AAX的競爭優勢到底在哪裡？你選擇AAX只是因為（相對）夠便宜而已，對嗎？大航空時代、省油的新引擎、即使油價持續低廉，這些都是絕大部份航空公司都能夠分享的機遇，為什麼是AAX？

AAX的競爭對手是QANTAS、國泰、BRUNEI AIRLINES等等，人家賣得很貴也是有人乘搭，那才叫品牌。Airasia的品牌是出盡辦法騙人家十塊廿塊，哈哈！想想為什麼油價插水，別的航空公司股價暴漲三五倍，同期AAX卻要籌資？你可以說它lag了一點，但AAX並不像亞航那樣有巨額的美元債務....

巴菲特說他喜歡白痴都會經營、賺錢的企業，你肯定這個Benyamin是萬中無一、可以起死回生的經營奇才？

Kuwait's strike is a big thing that will impact oil prices. Anyway, wait till end of year sure be fruitful....

高！

第一，亞航的對沖比較像那種輸很多很多錢的散戶一樣，油價低時買一點點，油價高就怕死拚命買。（但歸根究底還是因為資本不足）！所以我說不對沖好過對沖！整體來說已經輸了很多錢！
第二，你看看上季印尼亞航到底虧了多少錢！當然東尼說情況在好轉，選擇相信他也無可厚非！
亞航畢竟是消費股，還是以馬來西亞為基地的消費股。現在這種市況，人民能省就省，去旅遊的會有多少？

算死草！

毋庸置疑，亞航是一家卓越的公司，是世界冠軍。

但是，到底是換輪胎的世界冠軍，還是打羽球的世界冠軍呢？你換輪胎再快，最終也是僅可糊口而已。換得快，可能比同行多賺一點。

亞航如果要賺到很多很多的錢，就必須懂得利用自身的優勢，把機票賣Premium的價錢。可是目前還看不到。

企管方面，你想想為什麼外匯虧損那麼多，對沖策略有起作用、還是倒米的多？油期對沖又倒了多少米（不如直接買現貨）？設立那麼多子公司，大部份經營出問題，又為什麼要這樣倒米？現在東尼又「放眼」越南、緬甸等等，要穩定起來遙遙無期啊！

亞航賺的錢是省出來的。為了省錢，弄了那麼多花招騙顧客的錢。為了省錢，可以提前起飛越過暴風雨。為了省錢，可以讓投訴專線用者自付。殊不知，道德、安全、信任等等才能夠真正讓你賺大錢的品質。

twot, 以事論事。
（短期因素）
一、油價高時，亞航收取燃油附加費，一年大概多收六億。油價低時，取消燃油附加費，你們所謂的「Saving on fuel」大概也是一年六億。你只能說機票便宜了，所以「可能」「比較」「多一點」人出行，而已。
二、如果你說的80c是從比較低的股價RM0.80算起，還是從業績宣佈的RM1.40左右算起，那麼RM2.20大概也到頂了。
三、之前我算了算，大概首季純利也是了不起一億八千萬。
四、如果你只考慮一季的話，你想想，菲、日、印尼、印度、X會不會在來季虧損撥備增加呢？現在馬幣回升只是一季的事情而已，下一季可能持平或又掉下去了，他們會不會把握機會，讓財報往後不再有類似的大幅虧損呢？
五、有時間的話，上亞航網站看看機票價格高不高，你大概就知道下季數季好不好。八十多巴仙承載率不見得就是好，可能很多票是幾十塊賣出去的。


（長期因素）
另外，東安．費南迪斯的很多策略是氣死人了。
一、油價低時應該盡量多買油期，他偏偏跟你說他認為以後油價都會低。
二、你要Franchise給那麼國家，必須要有Pricing Power，偏偏他賣便宜！其實，航空更重要的是安全、準時、省時、資訊的傳達、禮貌的服務、連接，偏偏沒有把這些最最重要的事情傳達給消費者。
三、如果你有研究的話，被當作「殖民地」的子公司沒有幾家是做得好的。把東西以超貴的價格「transfer pricing」給子公司只會讓子公司的員工士氣低落。你看東尼坐陣印尼，一走飛機就掉了。如果不是永遠解決不了，就是很久很久才能夠解決。
如果你認真研究一下，為什麼飛機會掉？他們要在風暴來之前沖過去，對不對？
四、如果你認真想想的話，所有的子公司都資本嚴重不足，股東又不願意注資，對不對？
以小博大，自食其果。
五、但東尼注資後，大概不需要借那麼貴的美元歐羅，算是一種進步。

oh, pingdan, i want to say the same thing.

What do you mean by fraud? If it is not you guys, it is the Little Hippo loh!!!! I said a few years ago, itu bukan anak kandung, boleh tangkap punya.
抓小河馬，留著那小雞，皆大歡喜！

A lot about Oil palm but probably you and uncle cannot understand.

If you check on listed plantation companies, now FFB production dropped at least 40%, some even more. The weather is getting hotter, probably it will drop more next year. Now some oil palm mills are running out of water to process CPO. Most could report losses in the coming quarters.

Some may not sustain and just be taken over.

Consolidation!

A lot of people cannot understand a simple logic. Plants are living thing (surprise!). If it is under pressure over and over again, it will become weaker and weaker, even after the crisis is over, it will never be the same again.

Elon Musk is the greatest man ever live.

我同意作者指Tony部署這步棋很久了。你看看上一季的財報，如果不把七億多的特別項目放進去，基本是虧兩億。

就當我小人之心，上週二離奇大跌，很多人覺得莫名其妙！你可以猜想不知為何The Edge無端端說會私營化，結果股價大漲，如果股價往上沖全部計劃就打亂了，讓它跌中和一下，你看現在數字多准：注資十億，又恰恰不觸發全購。

這一招「羊毛出在羊身上」很多人都會使，只是沒有人想到Tony也會用。

還是那一句：神仙難賺吉寧錢。

AAX's competitor is not Malindo, they are Singapore Airlines, Brunei Airlines, BA, Qantas, Cathay, everyone is tough.

By the way, icon can you write something else other than Lucy and Ann? Appreciation of Ringgit must have benefit many other importers, USD debtors, etc.

You know, last wave i sold AA 3 weeks before the crash, now just happy to stay on ground.

zzz. 唔識死！

True, CPO price is rising and could be shooting over RM4000.00. However, the drought is so severe that FFB dropped so much and now some mills are running out of water to process CPO. Next year, due to the drought now FFB production could be even lower, the high CPO price is a symptom of how bad the industry is.

Just long CPO if you want to make some money.

Icon was joking, its april's fool. Keke!

神仙難賺吉寧錢

Good news or bad news? It depends on your (previous) view on the company.

I think it's good news because i was pessimistic before, now Tony is willing to take responsibility by giving full support to the company, thereby mitigate AA's cashflow problem and reduce earning risk. With enough capital, maybe they can "tahan" until AAI etc get listed, and solve problems like USD loan and buy more oil futures.

Tony is more matured now (hehe!). He talk less on share price and focus on doing his job. This is a good sign! Even if it goes to RM100 he also cannot sell one, un? He was hoping future dividend is enough to cover installment etc. So the 4c is a MUST! (Which may also mean more consistency on payout)

On the other hand, if you think the company is in great shape now, then Tony just rob you.

By the way, did he do something on monday or tuesday? (Small people's heart) Monday unexpectedly went up so much he got to press it down?

The new planes ordered by Airasia has an NEO (New Engine Option), which will improve fuel efficiency by a lot. But it needs lots of $$ to smooth the transition (sell old planes and buy new ones!), and he can't do it without enough bullet. Airasia will be on the lead again once they got this done. (You know, a lot of AA's older "innovation" has been successfully copied by competitors).

I may wait a while.

Moving!!!

Ringgit up, feed down => more profit.

It looks dangerous, apparently nobody knows what happen.