No proof was given as usual. Don't they understand to accuse someone with such status you need solid proof(s). That's also the case with Anwar. But that's too much to ask for.
SR got all the evidence, but still say no wrongdoing. "You blow meh"

Icon8888, Greetings!

It's always a pleasure to read your article, another good analysis!

I think AAX's books is really cleaner than Airasia, it doesn't have so many things like AAI, AAP to drag it down.

What i like most is the average fare is going up @RM563, signals good pricing power.

(By the way, if you look at how AA price its fare, fare starts at low level, after a certain % of tickets sold, price increases a little bit. Fare at dec and jun are basically the same if you book early. In fact, fare for high season should be more expensive. They should have better prediction system to do that. )

AAX is slightly different than AA, as they have limited capacity and often harder to add frequency.

(By the way, for the ordinary people, deep breathing press against the pancreas and release 50% more blood from storage into blood circulation. More blood makes your heart work less, so your heartbeat slows, plenty of oxygen to your brain = less stress).

cephasyu, this provides an arbitrage opportunity. You just arbitrage lah
“套戥”, you know?

Think like the foreign funds, quietly buy more....

Read through the annual reports, the company is doing well! Growing reasonably fast and still able to maintain high profit margin. Revenue, profit, dividend has been increasing except FY 2012 where egg prices was low.

At operational level, it relies on heavy capital investment rather than higher level of technical knowledge. (PPB is at least 15 years ahead in that sense). Keep all birds in closed house, therefore safe from diseases and keep productivity sound. Fulfilled requirements for export therefore enjoy higher selling price.

Valuation is cheap, given steady growth and high dividend yield. Should be one of the darling while MYR appreciates.

Going forward, MYR up 10% which will reduce feed prices by approximately the same amount. Expect ROE will increase gradually as need for capital expenditure tends to reduce (these closed house and conveyor belt etc generally lasts decades).

80-90% shareholding in big hands. Seems like sensitive to egg prices more than cheaper feed.

Minor complaint: The company's slogan is "hatching for future". I think they don't have a hatchery, don't know why they use that slogan, probably from old times.

That's where Tony's biggest weakness is, his view of the big picture has NEVER been right!

Read more economics books, stop watching football.

Nice one!

In fact i think everyone was ok with the general stuff like pre-book seat and pre-book meal etc. But they charge people for complaining is really too much!

飼料的主要原料為玉米、小麥及黃豆粕，目前均接近十多年歷史新低。其實飼料成本應該是降至2004年水平才對！飼料為什麼保持高價格呢？主要是因為之前馬幣大跌所至！現在馬幣回升，飼料價格已經逐步下降，唯還需要半年左右才能夠降個百分之十幾。
飼料雖然降價，但禽畜公司一般產量過剩問題嚴重。但最近看來泰國農業好像減弱了不少，走私來馬的問題比較趨緩。消費稅過後很多小農戶都倒閉了，也許接下來雞禽股會不錯。
初步研究幾家禽畜公司，覺得還是潮成比較有看頭，CAB好像也不錯。

股神說最重要的數字是ROE，所以會選頂級手套。

說得真好！只是目前不是時候吧！等等吧！

Investment wisdom shared by Teranova: "Its not too late after the news came out."

10bagger10, tambah mah, average up still can.

10bagger10, yup! Selling my car takes a week, wait for me!!!!

Calvin,
Now the trend reversed. Won't it be better if we choose companies that will benefit from MYR appreciation.
For examples, those borrowed USD, importer of materials denominated in USD(poultry, media, construction?, plantation (mix effect but the fertilizer will be cheaper). Kindly enlighten me.

Icon8888 calculated FY16 EPS to be 27 cents. I think its about right!

If you can wait, 2 years maybe RM5?

Uncle Koon and icon8888, thanks! Mudajaya, gogogo! Huat lah!

Yes, bjcorp & bjtoto is opening NFO in Vietnam.

Ryan, not crazy people, but small people.

When Tony was on the roadshow selling AAX IPO, he told us Airasia was worth RM6. "AAX should follow growth trajectory of Airasia." And then we all see huge losses after AAX listed.

3 weeks ago i was quite excited when the QR released. But after i read what icon did, look through the numbers, i changed my mind. Warren Buffett is right! It is a zero sum game, the economics of airlines fit what Warren predicts (let's say it is monopolistic competition).

You take away the unusual amount recovered, PAT is -200m.

IAA is in bigger mess when oil price is low, whatif their competitors cut prices even more, IAA is a prey (and all other loss making associates).

Goreng goreng ok lah, don't sailang.

Warren Buffett suggests (for capital intensive industry) to adjust net profit figure by add back depreciation and subtract capital expenditure, the numbers will look really ugly if you do that, i think.

Great work icon8888!

However, it is Profit growth that matters rather than Revenue growth.

What kind of people will create a name with an account and defend the evil? Just hope that they are getting paid, make us feel there is still little humanity somewhere inside.

Darkness!!!!

Ah Jib's understanding of the real world is very different. That's the problem because he never work as an employee. He doesn't care if people die, starve, poor, suffer, in pain, etc because he never experience any of it. He thought it is only a game. (you are a winner if you collect enough Diamonds)

It's a bit like a kid.

If you blame him for doing something wrong, he scold you back. How dare you, huh?

Any intelligent man above the IQ of 90.9 can foresee going forward Malaysia will be destroyed. More or less like The Philippines where many of our fellow Rakyat has to go oversea for jobs because no decent income can be earned locally after all the divestments eventually happens.

Some think they can live in a tiny castle with their fences up and employ armored guard, like those riches in the Philippines. Just shoot the poor guy who trespasses....

Before the last election, someone asks Anwar, why don't you wait for another 5 years? it ain't the time yet! He replied, because Malaysia would have bankrupt by then.

I think Dr M shared the same view, Malaysia is getting doomed at a very fast rate.

During Abdullah's time, there were subsidies for meat, egg, all the farm produce. It's all gone when ah Jib comes.

The government also withdrew various subsidies for petrol, cooking oil, flour, sugar, etc. Hold/cancel national service, review PTPTN sooner or later. Reduce scholarship. All those rural projects for the poor like rubber, oil palm, ayam kampung, layer ducks are terminated (for that i think the opposition have a better chance to win next time).

Now everything is gone and they charge you another 6%. Where were all those money gone?

Uncle Koon, seriously, Najib also brought back Xingquan after his visit to China, right? Sell lah....

oic

Yup, OTW to Holland. BNM can't defend MYR with Irwan, Irwan will speed up the dooming process.

Holland!

Supermix2,
Good point! It doesn't add up.

kahhoeng, share sales of BJkids raised 300M? Far from over....

Take away Dalton Investments, there are more than 8 funds accumulating BJcorp's shares in the last few months, we can reasonably expect they are still collecting although we don't know what had happened in the last two weeks. Very soon cheap share will be running out!

BJcorp sold more BJAuto, seems forgot to notify Exchange (only BJAuto reported)??

Dimensional Fund Advisors LP as of 31 Dec 2015 117.28m 2.51%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. as of 31 Jan 2016 34.83m 0.75%
BlackRock Fund Advisors as of 03 Mar 2016 10.07m 0.22%
Dalton Investments LLC as of 31 Jan 2015 9.81m 0.21%
Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC as of 31 Dec 2015 7.03m 0.15%
TIAA-CREF Investment Management LLC as of 31 Jan 2016 6.95m 0.15%
AXA Investment Managers Asia (Singapore) Ltd. as of 30/9/15 3.32m 0.07%
SSgA Funds Management, Inc. as of 29 Feb 2016 3.25m 0.07%
BlackRock Advisors (UK) Ltd. as of 03 Mar 2016 2.25m 0.05%
Northern Trust Investments, Inc. as of 04 Mar 2016 2.07m 0.04%

I checked it out for you. Output dropped by 40%.

I am trying to be polite here. But you know output drop by how many %? Oil palm companies suffer so much at the moment.

There is a common problem research are way too far away from reality. Take some time to read Peter Lynch.

You should choose those less affected by the drought or you can just long CPO.

I rerun the numbers again and what puzzle me is that the next quarter they will only make RM180M. And then i realise in fact this quarter they din't make any money if you take away the 728M lease charges recovered or whatever it is. Things will go better going forward but they start from ground zero.

Stockmanmy, you are right! Look closely in the P&L, really nothing left after paying all expenses(if your true business is selling plane tickets only).
As the sage of Omaha says, "0 sum game". His remarks on transportation also very useful, its good for the public but really profitable.
But since it is Tony, maybe he is a little bit better than that. At least you have to give him the credit of never/haven't ask for Right issue (that he can't afford to subscribe).

Hi, Icon8888
Nice work you have done there. You clear my mind. Thank you!
Little bit of remarks, i will love you even more if you can adjust the figures, if you think i got a point(since i am very lazy).

1. Dec is the strongest quarter, so maybe you wanna adjust revenue slightly lower.
2. When oil price was higher they collect fuel surcharge. I guess if you substract the fuel surcharge away ( 669M in 2014 ), there will be no/little fuel saving??? (sorry, guys)
Tony already said many times in interviews, when oil price is low, ticket becomes more affordable. The net and/or main effect should be better load factor, lower average variable cost, etc.
However, in the coming quarters you can see the more realistic (sorry to use that word Icon8888) fuel savings as 1. some of the expensive hedge expired, 2. fuel prices did come even lower.
3. Now i can see why Tony is selling, he is just being rational. Previously i said RM6-8 target price is way too much.
4. The loss making associates will always be a problem(S). Airasia has all the resources and lower fuel prices doesn't change that much.

The good news is i got to keep my house(its a joke, ok!?).

USD:MYR 4.14 already. USD rebound a bit good for export stock.

Feed ingredient prices is dropping. In fact, wheat, soya bean, corn all at historical low price. My own projection is 10% drop in feed price, last few month already decreased by about 3%.

Nice work!

I think both lines going downward. The prediction should be downward.

By the way, I think KLCI has been manipulated to match movement of dow. klci x 10 = dow. Can you draw the correlation also? Thank you first.

Airasia was listed 12 years ago. Last few days they have just crossed IPO price again. Why???? Some say bad luck??

Where did the losses of the past few quarters coming from? Obviously they must adjust their hedging and financing strategy. But are they?

Now oil starts to rise again. I bet they didn't buy enough oil futures, 24 months later when oil crosses USD100/barrel, drops back to 80 cents again?

Now they talk about expansion. Close down Airasia Indonesia first lah.

This is for discussion purpose only.

我也讚陳志遠，一方面幾年前我賺了錢。另一方面，他確實能人所不能，大家認為不可能的DEAL，他都能夠完成。當然，他是做DEAL的高手，不代表他管理方面有什麼才華。這幾年我覺得他兒子在管理方面算是比較到位，可能是因為讀過書吧！(correct me if i am wrong!不過一般情況這種接班人都是書讀得不錯的。）

五六年前我RM0.92買，RM1.69出清。之後升到一塊八毛多，就直插到RM0.34。

做投資、做生意要謹慎，要包贏。炒股是大事，應該思前想後，多方考慮。有報告讀報告，有新聞盡量全部讀全。還要自己做分析，不要妄想一步登天。到底是買正股、CY、CZ還是Warrant？拿一張紙寫下來到底買了以後有什麼後果，不要亂亂Click！(雞婆了，呵呵！）

玩樂就可以多冒一些險，享受快感。

輸錢不要賴地硬！陳志遠幾時跟你說他的股票包上？有koko888跟icon8888力挺，「駛乜驚」！

智者先知先覺，現在買！怕者後知後覺，慢半拍過半年RM0.85才買。庸者不知不覺，看到RM1.8才買，然後跌了又賴地硬，可悲！

ling, about 6 years ago, i bought around 90c and sold all @ RM1.69. It rises to 1.80 + and start falling until 34c.

5-6 years ago the richest guy in China is 王傳福, he attempted to diversify into electric car and gave Berjaya the right to build right-hand wheeled car globally. They failed. For me, at the time there is no way to lose because the wind direction is favourable.

Then, Vincent Tan retired, successor is new, Jeju project failed, etc etc, its look ugly to have a share price of 34c. The economy is bad at this time, they do not worry so much of hostile takeover, but having a better share price does give them more warchest to deal with everything.

Now the wind direction is right, operation improves, share prices of subsidiaries also good, probably they felt embarassing to have 34c share price of the mother company. They reorganise Cosway, probably got more good news lineup coming.

Look at the bright side, if they failed, they can just borrow and takeover the whole company.

無得輸！！

When you on board a flight, cost, convenience etc is just second, most important criteria is safety, i.e. the trust in the airline. This is the most difficult part.

So, I always prefer Airasia over AAX.

Why?

Airasia's competitor is MAS. Weak opponent.

However, AAX got to compete with Qantas, Cathay, Brunei Airlines, British Airway, etc Not so easy, man. These international airlines has the trust of people, NOT cheap fare can lure them away.

How can you make people trust you???? That is the billion dollar question.

Airasia is a great airline company. It is the champion of the world, if you are talking about flying an aeroplane.

And yet, why break RM1.65 price (again!!!), 12 years after IPO?

I sailang to Airasia when oil prices started to drop about 1 and 1/2 year ago. About 3 weeks before the crash, I sold all @ RM2.92 and watch it dropped to 80c, while every other airlines in the world celebrating big bonuses. Why did you borrow USD? Who gave you the advice?

Now finally 1 quarter of good result came out. And yet oil prices started to climb. Who knows oil prices spike again in 24 months and your share price back to 0.80 again?

When oil price was going towards USD140 last time, why didn't you hedge at USD80? Now oil prices USD30, did Airasia hedge the most you can? Airasia is not a trading company. They shouldn't "hedge" at all. They should "pre-book" and "supply-manage" your oil stock.

We see all these AAP, I, T, I, X all struggling. Why din't Airasia plan to expand 1 by 1, didn't any of the your top management study finance 101, accounting 101, economics 101, marketing 101 etc etc? Or Tony just ignore everything they say?

Now goreng goreng ok lah.

Monday, gogogogo!

I am not buying this stock because of bad economics of gold. Ever increasing supply, limited manufacturing usage, etc.

If you really into gold, why not buy those Big Guys, how can a company that keep switching its line of business compete internationally?

Icon8888, you are really a smart ass.

And yet Mango2 raises another interesting question, how can Borneo Oil possess 191.28KG of inventory the end of April 15? The agreement starts from 11 March.
Let our mighty Icon8888 figure it out to avoid "diok"(just kidding, don't take it too serious).

They bought it, or inherit it or they fake the data, or they can produce so fast?

I would say is due to lousy reporting, you will notice inconsistent, typo, but seems consistent in the last few months.

leno, jahat kau

5 grams per ton is just an example.

Anyway, let's continue "chui sui".

Let's say, due to some technical issue, the company do not know exactly how much gold they have produced in a month instantly. All the ore will be processed into gold dore then further purify. So, at the end of the month, only iron ore extracted and some semi-finished product (the gold dore) can be accounted for. When it finished process, then you will see gold at inventory next month or the month after.

From Oct 15 till Jan 16, company said they didn't sell any gold, rather they are keeping it. (correct me if I am wrong).

(Inventory - Ore) [let's assume the gold dore is negligible or is just a semi-finished product]
Oct 15 25.308KG 17745 MT
Nov 15 37.749KG 18390 MT
Dec 15 370KG 22017 MT
Jan 16 544.58 25807 MT

Note that production is actually increasing by looking at ore extracted. Probably they just cannot finish process or take account for, so Nov 15 gold inventory didn't up much. Anyway, you will know actual production by doing some simple division. (sum the MT up and divided by gold stock)

Icon8888, the actual figure may be around 6.xx gram / MT of ore.

Anyway, I am not buying.

Good Night!

No need tok/diok lah, don't play too big.

Sifu Icon8888 and others,
I did little bit of research so I would like to share information with you.
I probably won't buy this share so share with you also no harm.

1. The actual production is measured by Ore mined x 0.005 (5 grams in 1MT) + 70% x gold dore (using your assumption). Basically 100KG + per month only.
2. Mango2 did brought up some very interesting questions: i.e. the production figures nobody knows how to read (except me of course, haha), and they sold it all for a while last year so we can calculate the margin from there. (Icon8888 u do it lah) Look at Q2 ending July 2015, very slim margin.
3. GP Lau already passed away so CK Lau is taiko now. Anyway, Hap Seng's style is "we got money style" so probably management realise gold mining is not a good business but gold speculation could be. Since they got CK Lau to backup so no harm stock all the gold they produced.

Good day!
http://www.answers.com/Q/How_many_tons_of_ore_contain_one_ounce_of_gold

上一回成功集團用了差不多一年時間從0.40升到1.00，這一次我覺得會快一點點。名符其實絕地反攻