五千七百多公頃的成熟油棕園是不應該一季只產三千萬產值的油品，就當過去一年來產量比較低，但是這種水平可以賺百分之二、三十淨利是不可信的。OK，假設數據是真的，就是KUB將發展開銷分二十五年注銷的問題了！用這種計算方法來跟其它油棕上市公司比較是不正確的（雖然KUB的算法才是正確的，但大馬的公司可能是要節稅所以當一般開銷注銷了）。

看起來是不錯，但是油棕賺得太誇張，要查證一下。

Don't get it wrong, even if you lose money in 97, 98, if you lose less than the benchmark is consider good. This is what KcChong meant (and he repeatedly said that).

Mr Chong, nobody is comparing against the benchmark (which is really the 101 thing), that means your teaching has long long way to go.....

Looking at your previous picks (that didn't meet expectations), I guess the "news" effect got to be put in place, say M&A, big player investment, management change, etc, i.e, exciting element is needed to kick-start the momentum.

Yup, they are confused with B and M, should be 1,700m.

However, assuming 20% net margin, net profit only RM26m per year, which is relatively small.

投資的結果只有一個。太多的“如果”說明根本不知道怎麼辦。

多算者勝，少算者不勝。若干年後，你就知道今年到底發生甚麼事！但為什麼今天不能夠了解事實的真相呢？原因就是無知沒有調查清楚。

Hi, Mr. Tan,

My picks are as follows,

BJCORP - WC (30%) 460,000@0.065
SOLUTN - WA (30%) 153,000@0.195
DAYA 250,000@0.06
Airasia 6600@2.29
FAVCO 2100@2.38
Penta 3200@1.35

Total RM99,167, Bal: 833 cash + brokerage etc.

Many thanks Mr. Tan!

Most of those criticizing Mr. Koon are not stupid, in fact they noticed a fact, on average Mr. Koon was actually doing badly in picking stock winners and he merely emphasizing a few rare examples of successes over the last few decades.

Its like fortune teller gave 4D numbers to everybody and pick those winners and say: "I told you".

Another thing is that a few of Mr. Koon's statements are misleading, as pointed out by a few smart readers. I hate that because i got to cross-check everything you said.

官老現在完全是意氣之爭了。

Valuegrowth, SharkTank, couldn't agree more.

Wow, you almost cover everything! Great work!

You don't have to be sorry for doing the right thing, i know why you write those passages, just to tell what is right/wrong.

The stock market is a complex adaptive system, everything changes with information flows and the acts of participants influence each other simultaneously too. Your hard work brings more logic and positive energy to the system.

I think the rule is fair. It prevents someone to cheat using real money to manipulate entry/exit prices during the year.

Trust me, everybody thinks you will do it if the rule is changed! That's the part you really need to rethink.

As one start fresh, i believe there was talent, there was passion and a great heart behind it. As more success comes by, one slowly losing the pure heart (赤子之心 if i might say). "I am rich so i must be right!" In fact you just do not know how big the world is and how smart can people be.

ok. I consider myself in.

_Why, there is a difference between real life and game. Wake up, no more Dota, pokemon go or Mekamon.

Please reserve a place for me, thank you!

Mr Tan, may i join?

Merry Xmas Calvin, icon8888.

There is big problem with KYY's claim. Warren Buffett made 29% p.a. over long period of time (very old figure of course, only in his early years), Peter Lynch made 29% (some say 21%) over 13 years, is already legend and filthy rich.

If KYY can really make multiple baggers consistently in such short period of time, then his wealth must be far more than those of Warren Buffett. The truth is he has far more failure than he presented.

Failure is ok, but don't write/present it as if you are god of stock.

First, you get THE license. Then, you prepare 30m as security deposit. When you are ready, PM one of the hidden 7 goldfingers in this forum.

你說的基本上是正確的。但是很重要的一點，國際金融市場已經高度融合，當大鱷要狙擊你的時候，實力再強也沒有用。
九七年我國沒有問題，風暴是外圍因素造成。零八年我國沒有問題，風暴是外圍因素造成。世易時移，我國已是全球知名的腐敗國家，而且遊資充足，是一塊很肥很肥的豬肉，假若國際形勢有變，我國會死得比以往更慘！

Now mankind knows The moon is hollow, Alien base is at north and south pole, and we are going to discover all those weird things at Mars soon enough. Should start invest in SAUCERASIA.....

VG, since you are so hardworking, can you examine the effect of higher load factor on average price? i.e. if this quarter's load factor is 90, what will likely be the average fare? Whatif it is 91....and so on....

VG, what R3D3 means is Airasia shouldn't depend on hedging, leasing etc. Its lousy marketing results in poor ticket prices = cheap branding. This is the present.

Southwest has a 60%+ GP margin. Airasia's 20%+. Airasia should try very hard to improve this.

Now despite a lot of fundamental improvement, flushes of bad news coming out almost every other day.

Wait a while lah

目的，是最重要的。

通過研讀自己，你可以知道，自己真正的目的，真正要的是什麼？

比如說官有緣先生，他投資的目的，並不是要賺錢。他真正的目的，是要創造番幾倍的「神話」，可以展現給世人知道他多麼能幹，多麼真知卓見。所以他買的都是高風險股，背後都有一些故事，好說明世人他的偉大之處。

圖騰兄是明白人，只為賺錢。

tkp2見人所不能見，佩服。

張先生育人偉大。

一般跟風者，表面上是想賺錢，實際上只是想證明世上有不勞而獲之事，讓自己好逸惡勞的心理產生慰藉。

飛彈，真的好慘哦，被那麼多人講！讀報告要比別人都勤力，沒有一步登天的。

油棕業表面風光，需知此一時彼一時也。上兩回價格三四千時，原料人工都還便宜。近幾年來個最低薪金、馬幣狂跌導致肥料價暴起、消費稅導致百物騰貴、嚴缺工人導致有果沒有採，而我國機械化的進程簡直是毫無進展，病害問題導致果園荒廢.....

與其期望價格暴張，比較實際的是看看那一家上市的油棕公司把油棕園賣掉分錢來得實際......

Plantation companies wise, nowadays cost has risen so much (compare to the last few cycles), plus yield has been dropping like forever, its no longer a value-creating activity. Maybe selling off the plantation lands create the most value....

Well say!

To be a good investor, one must always see the company as a living organism. All criteria are bits and pieces to understand the company as a whole, some information are relevant but not important, some are way too important.

(For instance, to decide the gender of a person, does long hair means its a she? Normally it is, but not necessarily. This is what we call relevant but not important. )

Say to diagnose the health of a person, some look at the appearance (height, big eyes, etc ==> what everybody else is looking at==TA), some look at symptom of sickness (skin conditions etc), some look at measurement (blood pressure, cholesterol, blood sugar etc==FA). Of course some are more accurate and more important measurement then others. At times one factor is more important than the others.

Accounting is the language of the business. It is supposed to be articulated (everything must add-up).

By the way, you know what makes a stock moves up? HOPE!
What makes a stock drop? DISAPPOINTMENT!

oic

https://world.taobao.com/search/search.htm?_ksTS=1481952687965_313&spm=a21bp.7806943.20151106.1&_input_charset=utf-8&navigator=all&json=on&q=gertop&callback=__jsonp_cb&cna=Vq68EMC0Y1gCAa%20MB5dk8Ke0&abtest=_AB-LR517-LR854-LR895-PR517-PR854-PR895

You see, mostly 0 sales.

Bravo! Another concern is Airasia's cashflow. After another 1b is taken, low on cash reserve.

Sslee, you may succeed if it is vengeance or justice you seek, not your money back.

Tunepro creates absolutely 0 value, hate it very much!

Despite the risk of sky high oil prices etc may affect Airasia's performance, i vote for "her" next year. As I was really impressed by Airasia's move to tookover a small company bd4h, that could potentially be a game changer.

I think next year will be fantastic, best ever for Malaysia.

1. Tons of Chinese money flows into Malaysia. (reversal of MYR trend also)
By the way, look at those construction companies, lots of the local projects went into the hands of Chinese Construction companies because they have much better technologies (and precision) and financial strength to complete the job.

2. Oil price shooting sky high.
Supply was actually gradually decline since the beginning of the year, whereas demand picked up in recent month. Its the perfect timing to announce a production cut to push oil price sky high.
Pickens reenter market around July, he saw that earlier.

3. Commodity prices rebound strongly.
Look at Rubber, Oil Palm prices etc, all picked up strongly.

Well written, KC!

飛彈，簡單談談！

我覺得2016年以來供應已經開始減少，到了最近需求開始增加，價格才上揚之際，減產協議再推一把，價格肯定狂飆！

但是庫存減少導致原油價狂飆，你買原油期就好了！（不會買就學唄）

妳的論點的敗筆在於，原油價好了，不代表我國的油氣股可以買。其中一部份油氣公司已經瀕臨破產，一些已自顧不暇，有能力重新出發的公司也需要重新裝備！再加上獲取合約、或需籌集資金、執行開工、收錢，再反映在業績上已是猴年馬月了。

多算者勝，少算者不勝！

Author may consider to ask the following question also:

1. http://www.cnxz.cn/ordinary/index/64309.html

Look at this page, sales is 50-100m RMB. Why so low?

Note that the address in the above link is 福建晋江奄上工业区。


2. http://qz.fjsen.com/2011-11/02/content_6628132.htm

There was a fire at the factory in 2011.

Why only 100+ workers?

The deputy mayor's name is 吳清濱, is him related to 吳清泉？

(The China news report has repeatedly speculated Corrupted officers in China has been using these companies to laundry their money. )

3. http://www.csrc.gov.cn/pub/fujian/xxfw/fjjtbxx/200806/t20080619_87372.htm

This 吳清濱 is the deputy mayor of JinJiang, should be one of the pusher for listing JinJiang companies overseas.

4. Xingquan is supposed to have hundreds of self-operated shop, where are there? Could they list all of their locations?

5. Xingquan said they had entered Parkson, where are those?

這些無恥之輩天天還在吃香喝辣的，漫罵只是噴噴口水出出氣而已。

其實股民應該從錯誤中學習，不要問為什麼被騙，而要問怎麼被騙的。星泉是如何瞞過重重關卡？賬目有何不合理的地方？有沒有證據？

一、錢是真的，賬是假的。錢是貪官的，所以過得了審計。貪官原本計劃若干年後來馬來西亞全購星泉，那錢就可以調出來？

二、錢、賬都是假的？小公司本來就經營不易，上市只為苟言殘喘的存活？

三、吳清泉的姐姐（表面上的幕後大老板）辭職了，準備走人？

1. Donald Trump is simple. He is willing to do whatever he needs to win, attack weak point of the opponent, making fake news, pretending to be strong, promising what voters want to hear, etc. Don't take it seriously what he said he will do.

2. He will do whatever he thinks its good for USA. Moving all those subcontracting back to USA (iPhone etc) maybe, but not 45% import tax.

Where got U.S. companies listed on bursa?

你說的方法都是正確的。 可是那就需要付出巨大的努力去學習、尋找好公司，祝你好運！

I ran through the numbers again. Looks like next quarter is still going to be fine. I think the real problem with Airasia is the ticket price too low, i would suggest management to increase the lowest fare by 10-20% but i know they won't listen. I.e. if you book early, charge RM85 lah, doesn't have to be RM49.90, stupid!

You need a lot of big brains to be able to maximum revenue, or else they need something else (say, big data). Also, they did a few things to correct the past management mistakes which is really superb.

I checked Southwest has gross margin of 50-70%, Airasia just selling too cheap, with gross margin of 20-30%.

Calvin, you did raise an interesting question. But if only 70+ airplanes on book, cost less than 400m each, 12 years straight line depreciation, the figure (2000m +-) is correct then.

say 75*400m/12= 2500m+-. Some planes are done depreciation, plus the some discount on purchases, ngam bah.

我看了你回給KYY關於GAMUDA-WE，他哪裡看得懂，呵呵！

看起來很掂，我算一算。

厲害!

Your article shows that finally KYY and you understand a little bit more in Warren Buffett's teaching.

First, Benjamin Graham talked about Value.

Then, Warren Buffett modify it, buy undervalue stock at huge discount. The tricky part is the underlying business of the stock got to be growing and surviving for the next 30 years without his intervention.

You can't find it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

I repeatedly mentioned why KYY was making a low level mistake, he didn't check for consistency and do no product testing.

靜思....，其實龍珠找齊了。如果官有緣有緣的話，我會讓他年輕十五年。

你知道嗎？充滿力量的感覺！

修行者須有俗世智，真理越辯越明，只要不人身攻擊就好了!在股市更是如此，只有真的才玩得長久，一味胡說，就低了。

Well written, Mr. Chong! Also, good financial analytical skill and deep knowledge.

1. Verify what you read and see in a stock is very important. Peter Lynch would go to shopping mall to test the products. Warren Buffet would read all the annual reports he can get to see if the figures are consistent, most importantly, is the promises of the management being fulfilled? Terranova would wait until the actual result is out and follow the trend......If one did verify it, a lot of the losses can be avoided.

2. Its only different risk tolerance. I think Mr. Chong is being responsible to reduce exposure first, however, 良心當狗肺！

3. As you are growing older, the ability to digest large amount of information in details within a short period of time is diminishing.

4. So now Mr. Chong saves Mr. Koon 10M, maybe Mr. Koon should pay RM1M to Mr. Chong. Who knows in fact Mr. Koon will sue Mr. Chong for releasing private information? Mr. Chong can counter sue Mr. Koon for defamation. Huhu!

Stay cool, man!

Calvin, as a pioneer in eB2B, i would say e-commerce is not practical at this moment.

亞航這盤生意如履薄冰，如今山雨欲來，新一輪插水將歷史重現！

I came across Airasia stock years ago after reading a book "Airasia Story". I thought: "Wow, its really making money, amazing!" Fatt tat loh
At that time, Airasia was just about to start KL - Singapore, after Tony publicly lobbying the government for a while. At that time, they book "deferred taxation" as income, and was making roughly 800m a year. I thought: " Fatt tat loh". After KL-SG, should make at least 2b a year. But it didn't.
Then Airasia starts their regional expansion, i thought after AAT listed, fatt tat loh, but....
Then oil price starts falling, RM2.9x is the highest.
i went to a AAX IPO, Tony said Airasia should worth RM6. Bullshxt.....

Now MYR starts to fall again, next quarter figure will look less than satisfactory.

風緊，扯乎！

Wait for september result and see....

I checked a bit, not in details.

It listed the indonesian arm in 2013.

I read a bit on the indonesian listed subsidiary, september results released, not very good.

Malaysian business shown improvements, probably that's where they have been putting efforts on. When business were booming (back in 93, so they go to list in Indon), they lost their focus.

Well, Mr. Koon, first of all, i think you should continue writing as you can see the Malaysian market is full of stupid people! Most are amateur who doesn't know anything about business. See it as if you represent the good vs the noobs who goreng without going through their mind. I wouldn't want to see you giving up!

Don't write for the sake of your ego, but write for the sake of young talent who really wants to learn and succeed. Do something bigger than yourself. That maybe your legacy!

For a moment i did believe uncle Koon, fortunately i went to check a few Parkson at China. Sorry, no gertop, no addnice shoes there.

Sorry, no distributor operating stores either.