I am a bit sceptical the claim " FFB production will increase by about 30% per year compound for the next 5 years. ". We can't deny that FFB production has been growing tremendously for past few years. It does not make sense to presume that Jtiasa would grow at this compound rate in future. It is vey unlikely to achieve 30% compound growth from year 2015 onward.
FFB production Year 2013 - 665,000 MT ( Actual ) Year 2014 - 843,000 MT ( 27% growth ) Year 2015 - 1,002,000 MT ( 19% growth ) Year 2016 - 1,132,000 MT ( 13% growth )
My calculation is based on the mature area of actual planted area of each year with an annual FFB yield from 6MT to 21MT of the trees age.
Almost 700,000t of FFB produced and yet unable to achieve the same profit levels of smaller planters like IJMP and HAPL. Yes, its historical record cannot lie...pathetic historical earnings record.
I understand a lot plantation companies are on an expansion trail beside JTIASA. Can anyone provide a statistic on the total planted acreage in the past few years and if all these excess capacity (palm trees matured) come to the market at the same time.
What is the impact on the CPO price? a> in term of supply and demand equation, b> the price of competing vegetable oils, c> unpredictable weather patterns, d> import policies of consumer countries, and e> changes in taxation and import duty.
Unless we have answers to the above, we cannot predict for sure the bumper harvest will translate into record profit for JTIASA.
If FFB production will increase by about 30% per year compound for the next 5 years,so ffb output at 1)year 2014 = 894,878ton 2)year 2015 = 1,163,341ton 3)year2016 = 1,512,347ton 4)year2017 = 1,966,046ton 5)year 2018 = 2,555,861ton. Assume JT have planted all 70,000ha. and all their palm oil tree at peak production ( 30 ton per ha. ) JT ffb maximum output (after 10 year) can only achieve 2,100,000ton. The ffb output 30% per year compound is not match. Please correct me if i am wrong.
With due respect to Mr Koon, I think he needs to a do a bit more homework on JTIASA. The company has a bad corporate governance reputation and profitability doesn't jive with the operational figures, and analysts in the past have struggled to reconcile the numbers. Institutional investors are largely reserved on these Sarawakian timber-related boys. Think SOP is a better-managed oil palm plantation company.
Extracted from Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) manual:
Plantation companies with peatland development however reported that not all their peat estates are yielding equally. Especially low yields have been recorded on the more woody peat in Sarawak.
The actual achieved FFB yields of prime age oil palms on deep peat are very contrasting, ranging from about 30 to less than 15 mt/ha/year. Data from the pioneers of oil palm cultivation on peatland, United Plantations, showed that their early plantings on deep peat during the 1960s yielded only an average of 12.9 mt/ha over a 12-year period (5th to 16th year of planting).
The main factors affecting this high yield variation are peat type, land preparation,planting techniques, fertilization, water management as well as effective pest and disease control (Peter Lim, Pers. Comms.). Low yields are also experienced by smallholders (who often have little access to financial and technical resources) and the lack of BMP implementation.
It is important to note that a proper drainage system with effective water management structures are crucial to maximize oil palm yield on peat and also to minimize GHG emissions and peat subsidence, which is vital for prolonging the economic life span of the developed peat.
soils in sarawak are mainly rocky/mountainous (inland) or swampy/peat (around the coast). yield projections need to take this into account. Anything above 15 mt/ha will be a big ask for this group, what more with the kind of management they have.
As I said historical record cannot lie. That includes you own track record in making money from the stock market. If you have not been very successful, you must change your attitude or mindset, especially the above commentators who seem to know a lot about Jaya Tiasa.
While you are still finding excuses not to buy JT, it has already gone up from Rm 2.04 from beginning of 2014 to close at Rm 2.54 today, an increase of 50 sens equivalent to about 25%.
...and you have already forgotten about the stock plunging from over RM2.50 when you promoted it to RM2.00? Perfect timing means buying at the lowest possible point and selling at the highest possible point...I really think that's not the case here. I think some investors who took share placement are still reeling from losses.
He has his point. We must ignore some petty issues like low FFB production, low margin, high debt & etc. In order to make money, we must see who is behind driving share price up. He told us many many times that he has been on the board cruising comfortably. Why you guys worry so much? Give ang pau to you guys also wanted to complain. Sigh.
Then we should each all just give him our life savings to manage and expect at least 20% pa return. So we don't have to waste hours of our lives reading bias analysis from self-serving investors.
You guys don't know how to behave properly. Why don't be stupid a bit . Listen to me, follow me then you are able to make a lot of money. To be a super investor, you must know when to follow trend and the right person.
Why you want to be so greedy? I have given you 25% ang pau and you still want more from me.
That's why I said you are too rigid. You don't know the market trend? CPO price down down down few years back and you wanted to keep those shares under your bed. That's why you are a normal investor. Wakaaaa
If the intention is a noble one, ie. a sincere effort to enrich people, then it is fine. But sometimes, I find that there some individuals who use their influence to take advantage of the naivety of the less-informed public for self-serving interests. I feel the JTIASA idea is just one of them...and recently EKOWOOD.
if his intention is noble. should ask us buy Dsonic 2 yrs ago. ecoworld 1 yr ago. and iris 1 month ago. all go up 700%, 500% 350%. why buy jtiasa yr2012 2.30 yr2014 2.50, hardly go up 10%. wakawaka wakkkakakakaakaka.
Di forum ni ada 3 sifu hebat bagi 100 peratus return. Kcchong, otb and yang satu lagi abang tak mau reveal sebab dia low profile selalu bagi tips kaw kaw. Tapi abang tengok mereka ni tak boastful atau promote berulang kali. Sekali dua cakap saham naik gila. Maaf abang cakap Uncle Koon bukan dalam list sebab terlalu promote Jtiasa dengan politik berat sebelah.
You know how much capital I pump into a single stock. It's 100 million RM . it's not 100 million Rupiah. How can a small capital stock able to defend my attack? It would shot to sky high with my small portion of capital . I am a super investor. It's a different ball game. I have to look for big capital stock.
You are a small fly. You would never understand what's in a super investor mind. Making money is just as simple as eating peanut to me. You don't know the real secret of investing. You see my solid track records.
I told you already. I did not ask you to buy nor wanted your support. I got plenty of money. I just wanted to remind you the growth of FFB production for the past few years. Why you guys think negatively? It's mentality making a difference man.
You must be kidding. You want me to teach you when you need to abandon ship? I feed you with spoon and now you ask me when you can to swallow the food in your stomach. You are not toddler. Just do it yourself man.
"You guys don't know how to behave properly. Why don't be stupid a bit . Listen to me, follow me then you are able to make a lot of money. To be a super investor, you must know when to follow trend and the right person.
Why you want to be so greedy? I have given you 25% ang pau and you still want more from me."
Wah Up Down is that you ? Never seen you so lou hei before. What happened ?
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Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2014-02-24 14:07 | Report Abuse
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