Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-06 21:23 | Report Abuse

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Jun 6, 2015 06:18 PM | Report Abuse X

I do not want people to twist my facts, please note the change.
To win big in stock market, FA alone will not work. You need a combination of market psychology, TA, FA and sectors to focus.
I also use FA to invest, but it contribute only 25% of my total consideration. I focus more on TA.
If FA is very good, technical chart is a down trending stock, I will not buy this stock even the margin of safety is very high.
I am not a long term investor, I want high growth stock so that my ROI is very high in every year.
Thank you.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-06 21:26 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2015/77687.jsp

To me, this is called win big.

Thank you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-06 21:32 | Report Abuse

But that is only 51.55%. The portfolio in this article is 120%.

Or are you implying 6 months 51%, so two and a half year 51%*5 = 255%?


Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Jun 6, 2015 09:26 PM | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2015/77687.jsp

To me, this is called win big.

Thank you.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-06 21:38 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/41947.jsp

59% in 5 months. This is called win big. 11.7% per month.
Thank you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-06 21:44 | Report Abuse

Oh, so the comparison of return is based on per month? I must have missed something because all the time I see record of return is in the form of annual compounded return over a long period of time. Good to learn a new metric.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-06 21:57 | Report Abuse

And 120% in two a half year, or average 48% a year is peanuts. And should throw into longkang with this statement:


“Posted by Name deleted > Jun 5, 2015 11:29 AM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

To be successful in stock market, FA alone will not work.”

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-06 21:58 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/68226.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/41947.jsp

Let the readers here be the judge, not your words or my words.

I do not want to show off here, you started it.

I just post my opinion in VS forum, you take it so seriously.

Thank you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-06 22:04 | Report Abuse

Have I said anything like this before knowing that you are teaching TA?

"To be successful in stock market, TA alone will not work.”

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-06 22:08 | Report Abuse

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Jun 6, 2015 09:58 PM | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/68226.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/41947.jsp

Good comparison. I would like to get to Tan KW to ask him what is the purpose of putting up my portfolio. Is it to challenge you, or he just put that up for sharing purpose.

Is investment an endeavor to challenge to see who get the highest 6 months return, or is it a mean of building long term wealth?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-06 22:08 | Report Abuse

At least I am honest and frank to say that TA alone will not work. I had said it many times here. You need TA to combine with FA.

I had also mentioned in I3, you are the best FA sifu here. The best of the best.

I learn most of my FA from you.

The sifu I learn is always my sifu for life.

I also encourage all the readers to attend your class.

At least I know you have a small heart.

Thank you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-06 22:21 | Report Abuse

Mr Ooi,

We are discussing issues, not about people (that I have a small heart). The issue is about this statement:


"To be successful in stock market, FA alone will not work.”

You know I have been posting articles in i3investor, all talking about FA. You know I have been teaching FA to cari makan because can't win big in the stock market to survive.

So we just discuss issue, nothing personal. Don't always get angry fight.

Thanks very much for your positive statement about me. If I have offended you, please accept my apology.





Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Jun 6, 2015 10:08 PM | Report Abuse

At least I am honest and frank to say that TA alone will not work. I had said it many times here. You need TA to combine with FA.

I had also mentioned in I3, you are the best FA sifu here. The best of the best.

I learn most of my FA from you.

The sifu I learn is always my sifu for life.

I also encourage all the readers to attend your class.

At least I know you have a small heart.

Thank you.

Posted by tc88 > 2015-06-06 22:29 | Report Abuse

Different strategy is ok as long as can make more money.....Dont be too proud of own strategy...

Posted by NOBY > 2015-06-06 22:46 | Report Abuse

It depends on the time horizon. FA alone can work but maybe not in the short term. Sound fundamental investing techniques will work out in the long term. We have so many examples of successful fund managers using FA methods. I have not heard about Seth Klarman, Joel Greeblatt or Warren Buffett looking at charts before they make their purchase.

Personally, when I first started embarking on investment, I tried learning TA and it just wasn't right for someone like me who cant be staring at the screen all day to cut loss, buy on break -out, bullish divergence etc. Frankly speaking it was damn stressful.

And then I learnt the FA method and it just rang all the right bells in my head. It was simple to understand, intuitive and logical way of investing, looking at companies as bussiness with intrinsic values attached to it. It was a method I could apply without having to spend too much time and too much stress.

I m not saying that TA is not good, but it was just my personal experience. I know that my performance may not be as good as those who use TA or buy only up trending stocks, but at least I believe that in the long run, things will work out for me.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-06 23:12 | Report Abuse

I am a pure fundamental based investor. Let me tell you something - everybody else's TA doesn't work, only OTB's TA works.

I know this because I have attended his course before. As such, I know what his TA is about.

The TA that everybody else uses try to predict how share price will move by looking at trend and pattern. This kind of TA 99% of the time will die. The reason is because it is too complicated, requires too many subjective judgement

OTB's TA is different, he uses a licensed software to detect Breakout point.

His TA's focus is to detect a Buy signal. He doesn't try to predict how the price will move up and go down.

As his objective and method used is simple, it works very well in predicting when the share price is about to rise, hence the right time to enter.

That is why he has been so successful.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2015-06-06 23:12 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz and OTB..come on guys..just relax and chill out..!!!

The financial discipline of FA will determine the INTRINSIC WORTH of any company under study...there are varying methodologies but they all share the same objective in determining the intrinsic worth of any company under study although the intrinsic values may differ based on different methodology and/or different assumptions using the same methodology. Nevertheless the main objective is to determine a VALUE for the intrinsic worth of the company under study..

Having determined a VALUE, the next decision is WHEN TO BUY or WHEN TO SELL???

At any point in time the market price maybe undervalued or overvalued versus the determined INTRINSIC WORTH ....so a savvy FA investor will buy when the market price is below the intrinsic value and sell when the market price is higher than its intrinsic worth. A savvy FA investor will accumulate investment capital/sell overvalued stocks and wait for the opportunity to buy undervalued stocks. A savvy FA investor requires financial skillsets to determine value, patience to wait for opportunity to buy or sell

A short term TA trader usually utilize Daily Chart patterns,1 min , 5 min etc candlestick chart, TA indicators, Price Volume action plus other advanced algorithm to buy at low/relative low and sell at high/relative high...the stocks traded may be Fundamental stocks or it may just be non fundamental momentum stocks or stocks where the fundamentals has yet to translated into future results or in process of being factored in market price...the short term trader will follow the main operator and ride along with the main operator to make the trading profits. However not anyone can be a successful trader as it takes a certain mindset to be a successful trader..I know of friends who are competent in TA knowledge, loves to trade but lack the mindset or killer instinct to be a successful trader. So they end up as losers.

There is another way of investing which we all know from Mr Koon Yew Yin who honed his investment experience through a businessman perspective...buy when a company is making profits, increasing profits/increasing EPS with PE much lesser than 10

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-06 23:17 | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Jun 6, 2015 11:12 PM | Report Abuse

I am a pure fundamental based investor. Let me tell you something - everybody else's TA doesn't work, only OTB's TA works.

But you can't say FA alone won't work, can you?

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-06 23:40 | Report Abuse

FA for long term
TA for medium term lor.

FA more static
TA more dynamic lor

FA like screen shot
TA like video lor

TA move got motive one
FA is kayu...no motive

Posted by sunztzhe > 2015-06-06 23:40 | Report Abuse

FA alone can work if one has the competent skillsets to determine the intrinsic worth. If one does not have the competent skillsets then FA will not work. The key question is having acquired the skillsets, does one has the patience and the discipline of mindset to wait for the opportunity to buy at undervalued price or sell overvalued stocks...

Likewise it takes a certain trading mindset to be a successful trader...even though one is competent in TA trading knowledge...basically its about reading trend directions, price relative to certain moving averages, supports/resistances and oversold/overbought status

Whether it is FA or TA investors, the common problem is they know how to buy but dunno when to sell...or they love their stocks so much that they cannot part with it...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-06 23:40 | Report Abuse

KC, FA alone, without any TA, WILL WORK

I am 10000% sure

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-06 23:40 | Report Abuse

Like that mah easy to understand lor

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-06 23:41 | Report Abuse

Why I said so ? Because I have seen somebody done it before

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-06 23:42 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 10000% sure mean rm1 can make rm10000 wor

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-06 23:43 | Report Abuse

The person I know doesn't use TA at all, but he makes tones of money

He uses FA only

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-06 23:46 | Report Abuse

A good FA investor must have one very important criteria - hold long term

And he doesn't need to score on every stock. If he can have a few multibagger, he is home

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-06 23:46 | Report Abuse

But how long? Because if against TA say TA is 3 to 6 mths w occasional 1 mth. Avg TA do 10% to 20% every 3 mths (avg) they can do 40 to 80% gain a year.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-06 23:48 | Report Abuse

Sunkist there is no short cut to investment. You need to be patient. You need to hold. Period

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-06 23:52 | Report Abuse

Got lar Icon8888 sometimes got...like Hevea, like VS,

Posted by Intelligent Investor > 2015-06-06 23:53 | Report Abuse

I think we have to know what is our target return and then based on this to determine the stock selection and fund allocation.

We need to remember why we need to invest? What is our goal?

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/intelligent_investor_notes/53832.jsp

Buy and hold a good fundamental stock when price is cheap should able to provide investor a CAGR of 15% - 20%. Or, it maybe a more. Do check out the records for Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.

If someone aim to earn more return (to beat Warren Buffett). A combination of TA, FA, trend and machine gun (the margin) would need to come into picture. Maybe, Mr Ooi can advise what's his return (in CAGR) for the pass 20 years. So, we can use this as a guideline.

I believe both approach have different risk profile. And, we have to remember High-Risk Investments Not For Amateurs. Do you think it is so easy to beat Warren?

If we can earn a good living with a CAGR of 15% - 20% (W.B. CAGR is only a 26%, and he is the world third wealthiest person), do we need to take extra risk?

Posted by sunztzhe > 2015-06-06 23:53 | Report Abuse

A good FA investor usually go for monopolistic or near monopolistic companies with good biz models that grows with the growth of consumers...

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-06 23:55 | Report Abuse

Ok ok but I got 1 BIG Question, I hope sir sir, sifu sifu can help. If Najib step down do you think market will perceive 1 Mdb n other foray solved or not? Will market think n perform base on selected new Pm? Can FA or TA pick up faster?
I think tuan tuan, Puan puan got answer d

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-06 23:58 | Report Abuse

sunkist my view very simple, if I am smart enough to know how to time my entry, I will do that loh

If I only know how to dumb dumb hold, I better stick to my dumb dumb hold method loh

If FA + TA can make 50% return, I make 20% return, it is still ok mah

Posted by ks55 > 2015-06-07 00:00 | Report Abuse

Most important thing to invest in stock market is to make money.
If you think TA alone can ensure you make fast money. Go ahead.
If you think FA alone can ensure you make money over long term. Go ahead.
If you think TA/FA can make money. Go ahead.
If you think you are more comfortable FA/TA. Go ahead.

JUST MAKE SURE YOU WON'T LOSE MONEY.
OR
AT LEAST MAKE MONEY 9 OUT OF 10 COUNTERS YOU BUY

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-07 00:03 | Report Abuse

Correct. Stock market is about your wallet, not to beat somebody else

Posted by Intelligent Investor > 2015-06-07 00:06 | Report Abuse

Whatever is it, no one can say FA alone won't work. Maybe we can say FA alone won't able to provide a very high return - I am interest to know what will be the number?

I think we need to have a longer record to check out the return of both approach.

The value investing (FA) player - Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Philip Fisher, and Joel Greenbaltt have a return of 20% - 30% p.a. (CAGR) in their portfolio.

Can I have the name and the portfolio return for FA + TA + Margin player? So, we can use this as a proxy to see what is the return p.a. (CAGR).

We can use above return as a guide and make decision which path to follow.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2015-06-07 00:09 | Report Abuse

At this level of klci index, market uncertainty, weak market sentiments, further downside is possible but most likely it is quite limited...market is now waiting for uncertainty to become a bit clearer...rebound is likely as market is already oversold...

Posted by Intelligent Investor > 2015-06-07 00:11 | Report Abuse

Hi ks55,

I would say it is very difficult to achieve - "AT LEAST MAKE MONEY 9 OUT OF 10 COUNTERS YOU BUY" (at least for me). 6 or 7 should be a nice number.

How about you?

Posted by sunztzhe > 2015-06-07 07:46 | Report Abuse

ks55, Price right just sell, Price not right, what do you do? Buy some more to average or just sell???

I will focus mainly on whether a company's biz model can continue to deliver future profits, increasing future EPS...I rely on basic TA charts for entry purpose ONLY and focus on FA info on past cashflows..

I will buy only at lowest or relative low. I went into EVERGREEN when it was just coming off its lows sometime in Nov-Dec 2014 as I see value in its improved business model which I concluded then that it will empower it to earn increasing future profits, increasing EPS.... The financials were not impressive then(although it had some good years in the past) but it had healthy cashflows all along although there were losses for quite sometime. Moreover I saw EVERGREEN as a turnaround cyclical stock...I see VALUE in what the controlling shareholders were doing in spending time and money in empowering its biz model and when the Q3 2014 results started to show profit for the first time, I just bought heavily into it. I am still holding it and I am up more than 100%. I had encouraged other investors in Datasonic forum to buy then but what I got was just scorn, ridicule and general blindness to new opportunity..Datasonic then was around 1.60 ...if any investor in Datasonic then had cut their losses and invested in EVERGREEN then, they will be laughing right now instead of crying and hoping.

At that time, the TA and FA were'nt good but I see VALUE in what the controlling shareholders were doing to its biz model..the rest is history...STAR even recommended a BUY yesterday!!!

Posted by bracoli > 2015-06-07 07:49 | Report Abuse

Suntze any stock can rekomen?

Posted by RonnieKimLondon > 2015-06-07 08:00 | Report Abuse

God bless you Mr Chong. You're not perfect but come close in your fundamental analysis

Posted by sunztzhe > 2015-06-07 08:40 | Report Abuse

bracoli, you may perhaps be interested to look at OPENSYS..it had a surge in its latest qtrly earnings, it's in net cash position with forward PE less than 10. Its has good management, it's business model is good but it's your money, it's your decision...OK?? I am still holding to my EVERGREEN

Posted by Lan Yong How > 2015-06-07 09:49 | Report Abuse

THANK YOU GENTLEMEN. THIS IS LEARNING WHICH WE CANNOT GET FROM THE BOOK.I AM GOING TO GET THIS PRINTED AND HAND DOWN TO MY NEXT GENERATION.

Posted by pisanggoreng > 2015-06-07 10:13 | Report Abuse

Why simple thing make it so complicated.
TA and FA are two different things complementing each other in an efficient trading. TA without FA is not much better than a trading with luck. FA without TA is no doubt a safe play but must have the patience to wait. Which one you emphasise more depend on what sort of people you are. Some like to walk slowly and arrive at the destination with less risk. Some like to walk fast but higher risk of falling down.I prefer FA more than TA.
That's why I only know KC is a good enough in fact more than enough Sifu for my trading. So far I have no problem to achieve more than 20 % capital gain with more than bank dividend as bonus.

Posted by ahuat > 2015-06-07 10:28 | Report Abuse

Thanks pisanggoreng for your input.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-07 10:32 | Report Abuse

Posted by RonnieKimLondon > Jun 7, 2015 08:00 AM | Report Abuse
God bless you Mr Chong. You're not perfect but come close in your fundamental analysis

Thanks for the compliment. I appreciate it.

But sorry to say I differ in your opinion. I am far from perfect. Even if you say I am ok, I would be happy.

You know I am just a small time retail investors. The money I earned from investing is peanut compared with many many (I hope they don't stop me for writing just because of this).

I have a lot of limitations. I am not in the industry. I am not a financial analyst. I have no other information except publicly available information. Even that I made a lot of mistakes in my analysis.

Thanks anyway Ronnie.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-07 11:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-06-07 11:40 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr. OTB: Please do not stop writing as you are one of the very rare few who writes directly from heart and directly to the point of discussion. I believe many readers can understand your sincere messages that you just simply want to explain your strategy. Unfortunately it differs from the main stream of the threads which you appear yourself. I can feel your frustration that your sincere sharing comments were sometimes twisted or re-quoted with half fact and half non fact.

Please do not quit from i3 else I do not know how to comment on you when there is any prospective subscriber asking info about you which I did some times ago and she is now still one of your subscriber.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-07 11:43 | Report Abuse

Dear bsngpg,

I need to take a break only.

Thank you.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-06-07 11:48 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr OTB: after joining your course, my friend made a great return and she in return keeps on pursuing me to join too. Unfortunately, I just do not know how to appreciate TA. I am more on school of LenYan plus some speculation.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-06-07 12:00 | Report Abuse

If you can make money in the long term while minimising permanent loss of capital using coconut, fengshui, horoscope, zodiac or tarot then go ahead. But to say FA alone doesn't work, you are saying Warren Buffett, Guy Spier, Mohnish Pabrai, Peter Lynch, Walter Schloss, Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, David Einhorn, Bill Ackman, Eddie Lampert, management of Sequoia Fund, Tweedy Browne, Ruane Cunniff that they are all being lucky huh?

Maybe they are, Tweedy Browne has published an empirical studies titled "What Has Worked in Investing", please do publish your empirical studies and analysis to disprove their research. Your past ROI results are not empirical studies, it only proves that you are doing well, well maybe. I can't comment because process is more important than results. You might be the lucky gambler that get blackjack 5 years in a row, or an unlucky master than despite skills, fail to beat the market 5 years in a row. But please do use historical market data to prove FA doesn't work.

This is not MU vs Arsenal, it's not a fan club, and im not siding anyone but you better have something to back you up for your statement because there are overwhelming studies and research stacked against you when you say 'FA alone doesn't work'.

There is nothing wrong using hybrid of both methods, Michael Burry used a hybrid investing style and he saw GFC coming all the way back in 2005, but sorry not through TA.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2015-06-07 12:35 | Report Abuse

Whether you are a FA or TA practitioner, the ability to judge general trend is very essential.There are world renowned FA or TA gurus that need no further mentioning. Both FA and TA should not be completely separated because they are in a way associated and the interactive relationship between price, volume and time reflect the views of Investors. They vote for the future prospect with their funds.

In my view FA and TA are synonymous for Fundamental Value stocks as the known fundamentals at any point in time is already factored in the price. When new fundamental catalyst emerges, it will be in due time be reflected in the price action over time.

However professional short term traders/retailers have a penchant for GORENG stocks ( hoping to earn fast bucks) that lacks basic fundamental criteria for investment and its price action is solely determined by THE OPERATORS!!! If you ride on the right side with the operators, you will earn money..likewise if you are on the wrong side ..fools and their money will depart for sure!!