Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-03-06 22:42 | Report Abuse

icon and Desa,

You guys seem to be in some productive discussions now. Good on you. You are all always welcomed in my thread, if you wish.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-06 22:44 | Report Abuse

KC airasia flying to Auckland soon

I come drink kopi with you later

X P

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-06 22:45 | Report Abuse

Just kidding

Posted by soros228 > 2016-03-06 22:47 | Report Abuse

Well said Icon8888; need to be flexible.
Don't be too stubborn.

Posted by Ahbeng Beng > 2016-03-07 04:25 | Report Abuse

"Always stick to uncle Koon formula - buy something that you think next year can make more profit than this year"

Problem: If you know next year will be more profit than this year, others also knew it, and share price normally will not be cheap. Eg: alibaba, overly hyped, fulfilled criteria as they every year make more profit and is still growing, to date they are now down more than 30% from their previous peak.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 06:57 | Report Abuse

if u dig hard enough, u will find it

Last year I bought thong guan when it made RM20 mil

Now it makes RM60 mil (annualized figures )

I bought it because I anticipate RM100 mil capex will make profit growth

It is an educated bet

Not easy to get it right but it not impossible either

Posted by Ahbeng Beng > Mar 7, 2016 04:25 AM | Report Abuse

"Always stick to uncle Koon formula - buy something that you think next year can make more profit than this year"

Problem: If you know next year will be more profit than this year, others also knew it, and share price normally will not be cheap. Eg: alibaba, overly hyped, fulfilled criteria as they every year make more profit and is still growing, to date they are now down more than 30% from their previous peak.

Posted by PureBULL . > 2016-03-07 07:01 | Report Abuse

There r 2 broad classes of investing even learned people r confused of :
i. Value investing
ii. Momentum investing

If u r buying or holding momentum stocks n u tell people about value investing then u r the best joker to make everybody lol.

WB is the best master in value investing.
What is he been buying ?
Stocks with solid track record of growth in a span of 20 yrs. n he shall buy in the believe that these cos. will again mirror the same n better increasing profit performance in the next every 20 yrs n perpetually.

This is called value investing. n u can safely hold long term or for life because the stock price of these solid rock cos. will always rise higher from all mkt crashes to multiple record highs to the new blue skies.
then u shout with WB; price is what u pay, value is what u get.
U don't worry at all about Black Swan economic event causing misery to the stock prices.

WB's pillar of success:
i. World Population will forever increases, so is his biz n cos t/o.
ii. Higher global Inflation every yr with high pricing power.

Stock prices r the result of behavioral finance.
That's clearly shown in chart patterns or TA.
Behavioral finance effects both the above investing classes.
So use Knowledge of good TA for both. it works wonderfully.

What is momentum stocks ?
In physics, Momentum = mass X velocity
At Game Over, void of volume or speed of price increases or even at no price change, these stocks could plunge over nite. After a crash, many might not recover at all. It's a game with expiry date. Never spend too much time to analyze their engineered P&L n Cash-flow statements.
Use a simpler n better way to monitor them, like price action theory or weekly candle sticks to determine its trend.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 07:12 | Report Abuse

Another example is airasia, will low fuel cost cause coming quarters to report strong earnings ?

It is an educated bet , we will know in the next few months

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 07:15 | Report Abuse

Another example is adventa. They launched their dylasis business in January 2016, will their profit grow ? By how much ? When ?

Nobody had full answers for above, but the potential is there

Another educated bet


Posted by Ahbeng Beng > Mar 7, 2016 04:25 AM | Report Abuse

"Always stick to uncle Koon formula - buy something that you think next year can make more profit than this year"

Problem: If you know next year will be more profit than this year, others also knew it, and share price normally will not be cheap. Eg: alibaba, overly hyped, fulfilled criteria as they every year make more profit and is still growing, to date they are now down more than 30% from their previous peak.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 07:17 | Report Abuse

Another example is mudajaya. Can they really pull off their India IPP this year ? If IPP takes off, Will there be other hidden nasty surprise that will offset whatever gain ?

These are questions nobody has answers. But the growth driver is there

U have to try your luck

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 07:19 | Report Abuse

Another example is BJCorp, can their Vietnam lottery really be launched by June 2016 ? If yes, will it fly ?

Nobody has answers, but growth driver is there

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 07:20 | Report Abuse

Another is EG

New factory by Q3, will business take off as planned ?

Is it as immuned to forex as I think ?

You need to bet

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 07:22 | Report Abuse

There are many many others. If u dig hard enough, u will find them

But they will be your bets, not guaranteed return

No guarantee will work as expected

But at least you are not shooting in the dark

That is how I pick stocks

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 07:46 | Report Abuse

Tekseng is another good example

Capacity will expand by 200% by second half this year, and mostly backed by orders

Wil it fly ?

There are many factors in play : risk of solar slow down? Share cap increase due to fund raising ? Price has gone up from 40 sen to 110 now, still can go ?

Nobody had the full answers. You need to bet

But it is an educated bet, u are not operating in a vacuum . That makes it better than playing in casino

That is what punting is about , for me

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 07:52 | Report Abuse

Purebull, to demonstrate the usefulness of your TA, u need to write before the stocks go up

If u r successful in demonstrating that, people will queue up to see you

I found your concept interesting

However, I would like to complain about lack of predictive stock ideas

Can recommend some stocks, and do so by using your TA techniques to explain why u pick them ?

I am very keen to read

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 07:54 | Report Abuse

This is exactly the area I am lacking

very keen to learn more

Posted by soros228 > 2016-03-07 08:19 | Report Abuse

Well said Icon8888.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 08:31 | Report Abuse

Good morning Sifu soros

Posted by sharktank > 2016-03-07 08:37 | Report Abuse

TA has better Predictive value while FA gives u a peace of mind when prices fluctuates up and down. : )

Posted by soros228 > 2016-03-07 08:49 | Report Abuse

Morning Icon8888, Hehehehe don't tease me la; I'm not sifu. Hehehe.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-03-07 08:55 | Report Abuse

Value investors, after analysing if a stock is a good stock, only buy them if they are selling at reasonable price, or better still, cheap. Some may look at the momentum of the stocks, but that is after deciding the two earlier two factors. But most don’t have to and yet their records are fantastic as clearly shown in this article. If those stocks eventually become momentum stocks, and prices shoot up, that is actually the result of finally more investors discover that they are good and cheap, and hence start chasing after them. It is then a bonus and reward time for value investors. For those who chase the “momentum” later when the price has exceeded the value, most suffer losses.

So value investors who hold value stocks and you tell them about they are doing momentum investing, then you are the worst joker to make them lol.

Value investing has no boundaries of what industries the stocks are in. They are not necessary must have 20 years’ record and must hold for another twenty years. It is good to have some years of record earnings and cash flows, and value investors will sell them when their prices reach their intrinsic value, and intrinsic value is not a historical value, but an educated estimate of its present value from its future cash flows.

Physics is an exact science. Investing is more of an art. Can use the principle of sciences to do artistic investing?

If you disregard investing in a stock is investing in a business, or value investing; i.e. buying good companies at good prices, and only shout about your momentum investing, the super value investors will lol at you such as one of these:

“In 30 years in this business, I do not know anybody who has done it successfully and consistently, nor anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. Indeed, my impression is that trying to do the market timing is likely, not only not to add value to your investment programme, but to be counterproductive.”
John Bogle on market timing

What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing. Oscar Wilde, Lady Windermere’s Fan

“Candle sticks, flags, pennants, and tea cups-staples of the chartist’s stock in trade-are for the birds.”
Oh, yeah, I didn’t say the above. They are from the great super value investors of the world with proven records.


Posted by PureBULL . > Mar 7, 2016 07:01 AM | Report Abuse
There r 2 broad classes of investing even learned people r confused of :
i. Value investing
ii. Momentum investing

If u r buying or holding momentum stocks n u tell people about value investing then u r the best joker to make everybody lol.

WB is the best master in value investing.
What is he been buying ?
Stocks with solid track record of growth in a span of 20 yrs. n he shall buy in the believe that these cos. will again mirror the same n better increasing profit performance in the next every 20 yrs n perpetually.

This is called value investing. n u can safely hold long term or for life because the stock price of these solid rock cos. will always rise higher from all mkt crashes to multiple record highs to the new blue skies.
then u shout with WB; price is what u pay, value is what u get.
U don't worry at all about Black Swan economic event causing misery to the stock prices.

WB's pillar of success:
i. World Population will forever increases, so is his biz n cos t/o.
ii. Higher global Inflation every yr with high pricing power.

Stock prices r the result of behavioral finance.
That's clearly shown in chart patterns or TA.
Behavioral finance effects both the above investing classes.
So use Knowledge of good TA for both. it works wonderfully.

What is momentum stocks ?
In physics, Momentum = mass X velocity
At Game Over, void of volume or speed of price increases or even at no price change, these stocks could plunge over nite. After a crash, many might not recover at all. It's a game with expiry date. Never spend too much time to analyze their engineered P&L n Cash-flow statements.
Use a simpler n better way to monitor them, like price action theory or weekly candle sticks to determine its trend.

Posted by PureBULL . > 2016-03-07 08:57 | Report Abuse

With stock prices down so much, many r easily agitated. there is high chance of picking a 'fight.'
The ladies called us gentlemen. Let's be truly gentle at all times.
The very best in stocks will not waste their precious time in i3, bcos he or she can make so easy money in stocks.

let me think n walk about it for a moment, pls kcchongnz. I know having your last support is like asking you for your life. but i don't need it oso. be Cool...

Dear Icon8888,
Now u really want my formula. I have so many scan formulas on Meta Stock program. 1 press, a list of prospective stocks r out in 10-15 seconds, mostly FA stocks. slow, right?
Becareful, might have to take very long holi days.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-03-07 09:08 | Report Abuse

Posted by PureBULL . > Mar 7, 2016 08:57 AM | Report Abuse

The very best in stocks will not waste their precious time in i3, bcos he or she can make so easy money in stocks.

let me think n walk about it for a moment, pls kcchongnz. I know having your last support is like asking you for your life. but i don't need it oso. be Cool...


There are many people who write here do not necessary want to make "easy money" in stocks.

"Who say investing is easy. Anyone who says making money is so easy in the stock market is stupid" Charles Munger (with a little modification)

Many here are happy, happy is the ultimate aim, to share their knowledge and experience, their life, political and investing experience etc.

I am doing reasonable well in investing without using momentum. But seriously, i will consider momentum later in my investing. it is an added tool.

However, I will never consider it before my value investing analysis of the stock, and i don't need those funny things like shooting stars, dojie, saucers and pans, or candle sticks. Some simple momentum indicators will do. And that is later, for sure.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 09:21 | Report Abuse

Purebull, it is very simple. You press a button and a whole list will come out. But at the end of the day, you need to pick up a few and buy, right ?

You just write about those that you bought, and then provide brief explanations why you bought them (in your case, it would be TA details)

We will then monitor the stocks to see how they perform.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 09:25 | Report Abuse

Please don't tell me "why should I teach you suckers how to do it ?"

Well, icon8888 is one that doesn't say that when he gave out ideas. So you won't be the first one to do that.

Having said so, if you will insist on charging a fee, most people probably won't mind paying, if they are convinced that the method works.

So it is up to you to choose : you can share your info free, or u can charge a fee

But of course, people will only agree to pay once they see reasonably consistent positive performance

Am I fair ?

Posted by 3iii > 2016-03-07 09:37 | Report Abuse

Past historical performance is a very good guide or indicator, it cannot be used as the determinant of the future business of the company.


For example:

CFY Rev PBT EPS DPS
31/12/2015 49,741 26,468 14.44 8.01

31/12/2014 45,143 20,789 11.13 7.01

31/12/2013 25,218 11,344 5.97 3.00

31/12/2012 18,758 6,665 3.62 2.01

31/12/2011 12,653 4,868 2.64 2.01

31/12/2010 11,269 4,063 2.18 0.99

31/12/2009 5,880 1,751 0.92 0.99

31/12/2008 16,430 6,785 3.70 2.00

31/12/2007 15,015 6,755 3.70 9.00

Posted by 3iii > 2016-03-07 09:49 | Report Abuse

The company's revenues and earnings dropped in 2009 and 2010. Since 2010, the revenues grew very fast indeed. How can these historical data guide you in your investing? What are the assumptions you use to determine the future prospects of this company?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 09:55 | Report Abuse

What company is this ?

Posted by PureBULL . > 2016-03-07 10:00 | Report Abuse

Dear kcchongnz,
I am very glad that u r doing a service to society by imparting your knowledge n experiences for a small fee.
To my knowledge, u r the TA taiko in i3.
I strongly believe many people, more so the newbies must seek knowhow on FA 1st, because FA is your 1st step to the long journey of stock investment. n kcchongnz is available for your advantage anytime now.

I was FA 1st of course. A true FA indeed. Out of BCT University, I was a Corporate Planning Officer with the most aggressive chinaman banking conglo. as my 1st job n last job. I did many projects on M&A, detail financial n biz feasibility studies, operational audits to advise mgmt co. to increase installed plant capacity n to enhance mkt development n penetration. I do know the very importance of FA to biz future prospect.

So kcchongnz, I do give u my full support.
We r trained as engineers not expert in charming people. Good to always say nice things about other people's tools or just nothing to be safe. Making others happy is key # 1.
1 day I might be in Auckland as your visitor, can or not ?

Posted by PureBULL . > 2016-03-07 10:04 | Report Abuse

Dear Icon8888 ,
Mkt not ter good. i too fearful leh.
Will try to impress SIFU Icon8888 1 day.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 10:05 | Report Abuse

@@

Posted by noobnnew > 2016-03-07 10:08 | Report Abuse

For all KYY follower, its time for u to utilise ur margin account and buy more VS, Latitude, Liihen, Chinwell and FLBHD.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-03-07 10:41 | Report Abuse

Posted by PureBULL . > Mar 7, 2016 10:00 AM | Report Abuse
Dear kcchongnz,
I am very glad that u r doing a service to society by imparting your knowledge n experiences for a small fee.
To my knowledge, u r the TA taiko in i3.
I strongly believe many people, more so the newbies must seek knowhow on FA 1st, because FA is your 1st step to the long journey of stock investment. n kcchongnz is available for your advantage anytime now.

I was FA 1st of course. A true FA indeed. Out of BCT University, I was a Corporate Planning Officer with the most aggressive chinaman banking conglo. as my 1st job n last job. I did many projects on M&A, detail financial n biz feasibility studies, operational audits to advise mgmt co. to increase installed plant capacity n to enhance mkt development n penetration. I do know the very importance of FA to biz future prospect.

So kcchongnz, I do give u my full support.
We r trained as engineers not expert in charming people. Good to always say nice things about other people's tools or just nothing to be safe. Making others happy is key # 1.
1 day I might be in Auckland as your visitor, can or not ?


PureBull,

Thanks for your kind words. I do have some good golf kakis in Auckland, but not that many friends I used to have in Malaysia. So I always welcomed anyone visiting me in Auckland. Friends are forever.
I know next to nothing about TA, so your statement “To my knowledge, u r the TA taiko in i3.” Is incorrect.

Okay, now I know your education background and experience. So you must be an experienced financial professional and a knowledgeable investor. I respect you for that.

But bear in mind that your experience may be unique of your own, and not necessary others must also follow suit; like following momentum investing because your experience is that it is better than value investing.

I seldom comment of others method of investing, because I don’t know much about them. In here, I just cited what other super investors have said, which to a certain extend, I agree with them. But in my opinion, it is okay to give one’s critical opinion, be it positive or negative, as long as one doesn’t go into personal attack, just like what you started your comment here.

Saying good things on something you do not believe in, sounds like hypocrisy to me.

Posted by PureBULL . > 2016-03-07 11:07 | Report Abuse

Hi kcchongnz, Icon8888 n all,
Together we can create synergy.
JUST DO IT.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-03-07 11:14 | Report Abuse

Posted by PureBULL . > Mar 7, 2016 11:07 AM | Report Abuse

Hi kcchongnz, Icon8888 n all,
Together we can create synergy.
JUST DO IT.


PureBull,

I am in. Your call.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 11:38 | Report Abuse

Me too. Please advise next step ?

Posted by goukitsu > 2016-03-07 12:56 | Report Abuse

I am one of his student in his value investment course. What you will learn from his course is more than theory in value investing (which what books usually teach). You will also learn practically how to value a company. After I am equipped with this knowledge taught by him, I became fearless even if the price drop a lot as I know what I am doing given the knowledge of margin of safety.
Investing is about long term and not short term.
"If you don't feel comfortable owning something for 10 years, then don't own it for 10 minutes" - Warren Buffett
I need to give credit to Mr.KC Chong for equipping me with value investment knowledge.

Posted by 3iii > 2016-03-07 13:12 | Report Abuse

The objective of fundamental analysis is to determine a company's intrinsic value or its growth prospects.

Posted by PureBULL . > 2016-03-07 13:46 | Report Abuse

Can I make a small request?
Can Guru kcchongnz n Sifu Icon8888 create 1 or 2 treads as the i3 launching base for VALUE n/or MOMENTUM Stocks to invest or trade at right timing, hopefully ?
I am very excited to share my shoutings at real time.
U 2 have critical mass support n followers.
IT's going to be exciting with all inputs coming in, sirs.

Posted by bfg9000 > 2016-03-07 17:28 | Report Abuse

Sorry for asking a noobish question. FA basically tries to forward price assets based on the historical or published knowledge about a counter, and projects it into a future where the price will rise to match upon the realisation of that potential. Yet for that to happen, the market have to be kind of "efficient" for that to happen (without some efficiency, undervalued stocks can stay undervalued.. forever). And yet the consensus outside academia (where EMH still prints tonnes of PhDs annually) is that EMH is kind of like a dead parrot...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 17:36 | Report Abuse

Without a PHD, my view is that Bursa is very efficient. This conclusion based on my day to day experience. Whenever there is money making opportunities, capital (many are retail,) will flow in to exploit. When something bad, they will dump. The era whereby fund managers tarik harga and only buy liquid stocks is gone. The market has been democratized, and as a result, becomes very efficient.

This is my view.

KC and everybody, if you think differently, please share your view. I am very keen to know how you feel. Thank you

Posted by Probability > 2016-03-07 17:40 | Report Abuse

sometime I think the stock market is even more efficient than the exchange market....as if like you see price changes in the export counters much earlier than on the currency...when the cause & effects should actually be the other way round.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 17:42 | Report Abuse

It is not surprising , actually. If u look at i3, people are constantly brainstorming about each stocks, When so much efforts and thoughts are given to digest new info, how can market not be efficient ?

Posted by 3iii > 2016-03-07 17:52 | Report Abuse

Most time, a particular stock price is fairly priced, that is the market is efficient.

However, there are times when a stock price is not priced fairly, i.e. overpriced or underpriced.

Also beware of manipulators in a particular stock too.

You need to know the games you wish to play in, so that you don't end up the "patsy".

Posted by gray > 2016-03-07 17:53 | Report Abuse

icon. pity u la. your knowledge of stock mkt mechanism is so terrible.

wakakaka. cannot blame u la, you follow 1 holland sifu, 1 coma sifu.


the combination of which. means if u make money, is luck, if u dont make money and make holland stocks, its Normal.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-03-07 19:22 | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 7, 2016 05:36 PM | Report Abuse
Without a PHD, my view is that Bursa is very efficient. This conclusion based on my day to day experience. Whenever there is money making opportunities, capital (many are retail,) will flow in to exploit. When something bad, they will dump. The era whereby fund managers tarik harga and only buy liquid stocks is gone. The market has been democratized, and as a result, becomes very efficient.
This is my view.
KC and everybody, if you think differently, please share your view. I am very keen to know how you feel. Thank you


Icon, read this article of mine where you make your comments again and again.

Does it appear to you that the market is efficient?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 19:35 | Report Abuse

Errrr.... Which article .... ? "Does FA have any predictive power " ?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-03-07 19:43 | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 7, 2016 07:35 PM | Report Abuse
Errrr.... Which article .... ? "Does FA have any predictive power " ?


Efficient market hypothesis states that stock price reflects all available information, and hence nobody can earn extra-ordinary return from the market. If there is, it is purely due to chance.

Price then is close to its value. But how can the value of a company can change by 5% a day, 30% in a month?

This articles has shown that using the various value investing strategies have consistently beating the market.

If the market is efficient, then those strategies can't beat the market. And how can they beat the market due to chance since they consistently have done that?

If market is efficient, how can the return of my portfolios shown here can beat the market by such a wide margin, every year for the last year.

And how can you yourself make extra-ordinary return from the market the last few years.

Warren Buffett used to say; if the market is efficient, I would be carrying a tin can in my hands on the streets.

Posted by Probability > 2016-03-07 19:46 | Report Abuse

Say if we define 'efficient' as latest price instantly reflects the potential return from the investment based on all the latest available information correctly interpreted by the market.

If that's the case, in an efficient market one can only make a consistent better return than the average by (1) having an information accessibility advantage or (2) the speed of his response to the latest available information.

We can then further deduce that if people are able to make consistent better than avg return like what KC has shown earlier by the gurus...the efficient market assumption would then be incorrect.

So..if its true that such returns really can be made consistently (even now)...it really proves that the market is inefficient. (guess that's why the majority retailers always lose money in market ha?)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-07 19:49 | Report Abuse

LOL u r right, u r right... Your way of interpreting EMH is correct (now I remember my textbook).

I have interpreting it as "market is so dumb it is indifferent to news and development, thereby resulting in good stocks not re rated, and bad stocks not sold down"

Which of course is not EMH, LOL

Thank you for refreshing my memory