Average base fare (without fuel surcharge) for 2nd quarter 2015 is RM393.00 . 2nd quarter is the low season for all airline operator. According to AAX financial presentation on 29/2/2016, the average base fare for 2nd quarter 2016 only growth by 10% compared to 2nd quarter on year 2015. Based on the calculation , the average base fare for 2nd quarter 2016 will be = RM393.00 x 1.10 = RM 432. Based on my estimation, AAX will only able to breakeven at average base fare of RM500.00. At average base fare of RM432, I think AAX will made loss about RM 100 million in 2nd quarter 2016. So, no need to rush in buy AAX now to avoid trap in this share.
sayakamiyuki, thanks for your feedback, but next quater is 1st quater 2016, not 2nd, and 1st qtr 2015 base fare is 433, and base on their presentation, Q1 growth for Jan is 31%(load 81%), feb 20%(Load 82% up to 15th feb, half month) and 3 % (load 59%) for Mar, i add the graph and analysis at the end of my analysis. Wish can give you more info to decide. I think you misunderstand the 10% growth on load factor is growth of Base fare. Cheers!
it wont have great impact, yet. but i remain positive for airasia and AAX, after MAS lay off and restructure, is not easy for them aggressively expand and trigger the price war. after all, Khazanah is not going to throw their money in this big hole again and again. at least not before the 2018 election, i guess.
I like what you said, well say ---------------------------------------------------------------- 当然我很可能判断错误, 不过现在就算局势有变, 只要不贪,也有很多机会小赚离场。反之局势正确, 上升空间很大。 所以我说着不是一只买了就能锁进保险箱好好睡觉的公司, 局势变化需要跟进。 当然 Bursa近1000只股票, 我们不一定要买这只, 按自己有信心的方式选择公司就好。
一天近1.3亿的交易量, 价格已经不是看我文章的股友们能左右的了。
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