I am still very bullish about CIMB. If you ignore the price weakness due to foreign funds pull out, they are supposed to reach all time high profit by 2018 (based on various analysts' projection).
Thanks for sharing and giving us the macro viewpoints.Just would like to add to your views.On the export sector there would be new headwinds approaching.I would sum it as the pull and push factor.The government has put the freeze on foreign workers and has lifted the ban on certain sectors like manufacturing.However there is the push factor at play...foreign workers now in Malaysia would have finished their contracts and would not renew their contracts.Consider the following...exchange rate US$ RM end December 2014 3.50 , end December 2015 4.29 and today about 4.35.The foreign worker is repatriating less now in terms of savings and it is not an attractive option as they would rather work in a country for 2 years with a stable currency and less inflation as he is taxed 6% GST also for buying cigges and maggi mee :( So the plans for MyEg to go to rent out hostels to foreign workers would seem a daunting task now.Just my 2 sens (and shrinking) opinion.
Hello Icon8888 bro, it's been awhile hasn't it? How are you faring? From your article I assume you have been doing well?
Actually, with WTK you already have a proxy to CPO, so no need to worry too much about it.
Anyway, not all Value Investors hold their stocks indefinitely. This is a trait only practiced by certain value investors like Buffett, Graham, Peter Lynch. Other value investor such like Marks, Browne does not hold indefinitely and sell when it reaches it's above intrinsic value. I believe you belong to the latter group. No right or wrong, just different strategies for different individuals.
Thank you Icon sifu. according to your normally practice, will you sell you "good" stock (stock that growing every quarter)when there is "big" correction?
From what I see from export stocks (value + growth) stocks combination in 1st year to growth stock of AA in 2nd year. For 2017 is another mix bag of value & growth stocks.
What I still like in the 2017 selections for the like of - Geshen, Hevea, Jayatiasa, Latitud, Poh Huat, Prolexus, Supermax, Thong Guan, WTK - there still have the basis for a good company such as values of consistent operations, good returns on capital and a pretty healthy balance sheet.
I also believe no matter who is the US president or how radical he/she is, if a company continuously derive intrinsic value from their ability to generate profit and proven consistently to be able deliver healthy earnings is a safe bet. The macro and external factors like change in tariff, demand, forex, and trade policy are consider as bonus advantages or disadvantages to a company.
Btw - since your 2017 is a mix bag of selection between value & growth stocks, guess it is covered in both ways since value stocks tend to outperform during economic growth period while growth stocks perform better in general when the economy turn to weaker. Unless anyone got a working crystal ball to tell what lies in the future, I am all ear for it.
Good sharing, hope for more constructive inputs and brainstoriming ideas everyone.
Richard Branson said it is not up to one man to shape the world we live in - it is up to all of us. So I think with their past 44th presidential legacy and with senate & house of congress will govern & prevent any drastic move
Icon, I like your focus on future earnings of stock that you want to buy in 2017. What are about plantation stocks (e.g. FGV, Sime, etc) as CPO prices are rising and next year is a bumper crop after a drought year. Earnings are in USD (CPO prices correlated with USDMYR) and labour wages and some costs are in Ringgit.
Airasia may not be a good bet now as it is no longer a low cost carrier. Where got low cost when there are no low cost terminals in Malaysia? Where's the competitive edge?
Very reasonable strategy here. I'd say 12 months would already qualify as "long term" with some people. We don't have to set it in stone. If the situation changes, it can be less. Or add another six months.
I'm going to load up on export counters too. Waiting for dips to enter. And then just wait.
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Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-11-16 11:59 | Report Abuse
u r welcome