Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 17:26 | Report Abuse

3ii investment philosophy is being right and being consensus...so he may still get a return close to equity return..

being right and non-consensus is the tricky part..

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 17:30 | Report Abuse

This is precisely what raider is harping mah, being right and non consensus is even a safer strategy bcos very big margin of safety mah.....!!


Posted by probability > Feb 9, 2019 05:26 PM | Report Abuse

3ii investment philosophy is being right and being consensus...so he may still get a return close to equity return..

being right and non-consensus is the tricky part..

Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 17:31 | Report Abuse

agree raider

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 17:32 | Report Abuse

(Icon) If People Tells You That Investing Is About Buying Blue Chips At 30 Times PER, Don't Believe It

---------------------


not true......buying and keeping enough of Vitrox, Scientex, AeonCr, Top Glove, Hartalega when I first found it would beat almost everybody else.......


The key word is Q....the ability to execute....to buy enough, to keep long enough......

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 17:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 17:34 | Report Abuse

probability 3ii investment philosophy is being right and being consensus...so he may still get a return close to equity return..

being right and non-consensus is the tricky part..
==============


u underestimate the power of being right.......

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 17:36 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 17:41 | Report Abuse

being right also got 2 levels.....KYY can be lucky on his Carimin, next 2-3 quarters better than the one before. ( just like VS before) KYY with his proven Q....one operation in Carimin can make him Wallen Bufalo of Malaysia ( at least can boast about it)....................

Then, there is the next type of being right.......being right when there is adequate clarity, transparency, predictability, no nasty surprises......that is the next level of being right

so, which type u talking?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 17:44 | Report Abuse

“To achieve superior investment results, your insight into value has to be superior. Thus you must learn things others don’t, see things differently or do a better job of analyzing them – ideally all three.”

“If something is already consensus then money will have already flooded in and the profit opportunity is gone. And so by definition in venture capital, if you are doing it right, you are continuously investing in things that are non-consensus at the time of investment. And let me translate ‘non-consensus’: in sort of practical terms, it translates to crazy. You are investing in things that look like they are just nuts.” “The entire art of venture capital in our view is the big breakthrough for ideas. The nature of the big idea is that they are not that predictable.” “Most of the big breakthrough technologies/companies seem crazy at first: PCs, the internet, Bitcoin, Airbnb, Uber, 140 characters. It has to be a radical product. It has to be something where, when people look at it, at first they say, ‘I don’t get it, I don’t understand it. I think it’s too weird, I think it’s too unusual.’”

Posted by stockraider > Feb 9, 2019 05:26 PM | Report Abuse X

Understanding The concept and philosophy of margin of safety investment mah ;

"The choice isn’t really between value and growth, but between value today and value tomorrow. Growth investing represents a bet on company performance that may or may not materialize in the future, while value investing is based primarily on analysis of a company’s current wealth. (19-20).
LOGICALLY MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT ARE LESS SPECULATIVE THAN GROWTH INVESTMENT LOH...!!

Establishing a healthy relationship between fundamentals — value — and price is at the core of successful investing. (24). CORRECTLOH ALOT OF PEOPLE MAEGIN OF SAFETY VALUE INVESTMENT IS TOTALLY WRONGLOH..!!
IT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VALUE V PRICE MAH..!!

Bottom Line: there’s no such thing as a good or bad idea regardless of price! (25). CORRECTLOH QL PE 50X EVEN IF CO IS A BETTER THAN INSAS BUT U NEED TO BENCHMARK AGST VALUE & PRICE IN THAT CASE, INSAS STAND OUT .

Investor psychology can cause a security to be priced just about anywhere in the short run, regardless of its fundamentals. (27)
Investing is a popularity contest, and the most dangerous thing is to buy something at the peak of its popularity. (27). STOCK LIKE QL AND NESTLE MOVE UP SO MUCH OVER SO MANY YRS..U SHOULD WARY ABOUT OVERVALUATION LOH...THE FACT ITS PE ABOVE 50X CONFIRM WEARINESS LOH!!

The safest and most potentially profitable thing is to buy something when no one likes it. (27). LIKE INSAS PE 6.5X NOT MANY PEOPLE LIKES & HAVE BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!

Unfortunately, the greater fool theory only works until it doesn’t. Valuation eventually comes into play, and those who are holding the bag when it does have to face the music. (28). DO NOT SIMPLY CHASE MAH !!

Risk means more things can happen than will happen. (31)
The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about.(36)
IF U CHASE THERE IS A BIG POSSIBILITY OF LOSSES LOH...!!

Skillful investors can get a sense for the risk present in a given situation. They make that judgement based on (a) the stability and dependability of value and (b) the relationship between price and value. (39). AS USUAL PEOPLE LIKE RAIDER, CALVIN TAN, SSLEE AND LENO UNDERSTAND THE CONCEPT OF VALUE, THUS THEY PICK INSAS LOH...!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 17:45 | Report Abuse

osted by PureBULL . > Feb 9, 2019 05:41 PM | Report Abuse

EX carimin after 55 sen.
===========

In stock market, its about how many shares u got......what proportion of your portfolio.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 17:52 | Report Abuse

Once u buy right ur sell will be taken care by itself mah....!!

In other words is about cut gain n not cut loss loh...!!

Posted by Fortune Bull > Feb 9, 2019 05:44 PM | Report Abuse

It's not about been a contrarian per say! It's about having intel that others don't have! Example is Hengyuan, that gone up by few hundred percent! It's not about buying when everybody is selling, it's about intel when to buy and when to sell!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 17:56 | Report Abuse

short term ( few days to a few months ), long term ( a few Quarters at a minimum )......


short or long term.....needs different skill sets......keep them apart and separate......

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-02-09 18:01 | Report Abuse

only be a contrarian when theres conflict of interest...

like when analyst tell u to buy/sell

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 18:17 | Report Abuse

For me being contrarian will always be based on facts and the quarterly reports. If QL is PE50 and doesn't do anything different and just sits on their laurels, if buta buta keep and close eyes knowing that the revenues and earnings will stagnate or even go down is just stupid to buy or hold.

But if you practise 2nd level thinking and realize that they are constantly improving their management and constantly investing your earnings in smart investments like sustainable aquaculture, family Mart, regional replication to Vietnam and Indonesia, and you foresee a future for the palm oil industry improving, why not go along for the ride?

Level 1 thinking: ql is overvalued pe50, it is bad. Sell.
Level 2 contrarian thinking: QL is overvalued pe50, but will people stop eating chicken, eggs and seafood? Will their factories and plants suddenly become obsolete? Will their capex today generate more revenue tomorrow? Will their investments into family Mart, Indonesia and Vietnam work out?, Will the revenue and profits be exponentially more 5-10 years from now? Yes? Then don't sell. Hold or Buy.

Being a contrarian means looking further, but don't be a contrarian just for kicks. If your house is on fire and someone points it out. Don't bloody go in.

QL Nestle pe50 is not a sign to sell or buy, it just means you have to understand why it is PE50. Do you know why Nestle is PE50? Why QL is PE50? If you know then it is possible to be a contrarian. If you know next quarter report QL revenue and earnings is going to do badly, can do idss and short QL. But if you are hoping QL price at pe50 is going to drop just because it is PE50, that is not being a contrarian when you short.

That's just plain stupid.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 18:20 | Report Abuse

Purebull, I've invested long enough to know that right timing is just that poor bull (shit). Anyone who tells you they have indicators, technical analysis and charts that can help you pick the right timing to buy or sell stocks you should avoid. If more than 100 years of stock market, the smartest men on the planet (LTCM long term capital management) couldn't do it, if Warren buffet told you he can't do it.

Trust me. It can't be done.

Posted by sense maker > 2019-02-09 18:22 | Report Abuse

Most arguments led to QL, Insas, Carimin, etc nowadays!

Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 18:37 | Report Abuse

contrarian being right (right & non consensus) is when you know something more on the valuation of the stocks compared to the majority who cannot see it....


i3 is a good place to share and verify if your insights is better than the consensus...
.......................

Icon and a few other sifus many times shared such insights to let themself and others in i3 gain in the process of discovering.

Philip insights so far does not appear convincing...

Cute Jon does not even have an insight...

Koon shares wrong insights and made many in i3 lost their hard earned money..


i3 is a great place to share

thank you

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 18:40 | Report Abuse

I think the one constant to ask this is to buy a stock where the future value you believe it's lower than is current value.

Margin of safety rule works in this way. It doesn't matter if:
1. You buy based on liquidated net asset value. You hope it will turnaround.
2. You buy based on future earnings. You hope the business will grow.
3. You buy based on wrong evaluation of information. You hope the results will be contrary to public belief.
4. You buy based on inside information. You have a crystal ball.

All of this is bought because you think you have margin of safety based on your idea of intrinsic value.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip6/

You do not.
1. Management can waste retained earnings on horrible ideas. Sell assets at below your assumed value to pay for debts. No turnaround.
2. Management can miss earnings. Low growth and no growth gets the same results.
3. The market is right. You were just plain wrong.
4. Be wrong and waiting too long to be right is the same thing. You still register losses.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 18:41 | Report Abuse

Purebull, you definitely can't use the same strategy forever. Ask kyy. Read the nifty fifty. Read the dogs of the Dow.

It works until it doesn't.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 18:47 | Report Abuse

How about Growth investment leh ??

U expect the business will grow leh, how u know leh ?

U think growth rate is 15% how u know leh ??

U extrapolate the earnings over many qtrs & yrs n thought u know alot...but u don really know mah...!!

Bcos even the management & the insider cannot even able to project & predict the next qtr loh...!!

Another thing...3iii says expect growth rate 15%...why u think this rate is just a hope loh....!!

General Growth investment is speculative and use crystral ball more than value investment mah....!!

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 9, 2019 06:40 PM | Report Abuse

I think the one constant to ask this is to buy a stock where the future value you believe it's lower than is current value.

Margin of safety rule works in this way. It doesn't matter if:
1. You buy based on liquidated net asset value. You hope it will turnaround.
2. You buy based on future earnings. You hope the business will grow.
3. You buy based on wrong evaluation of information. You hope the results will be contrary to public belief.
4. You buy based on inside information. You have a crystal ball.

All of this is bought because you think you have margin of safety based on your idea of intrinsic value.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip6/

You do not.
1. Management can waste retained earnings on horrible ideas. Sell assets at below your assumed value to pay for debts. No turnaround.
2. Management can miss earnings. Low growth and no growth gets the same results.
3. The market is right. You were just plain wrong.
4. Be wrong and waiting too long to be right is the same thing. You still register losses.

Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 18:59 | Report Abuse

free float?


Posted by PureBULL . > Feb 9, 2019 06:50 PM | Report Abuse

Stocks must clear the greatest supply to go higher into new.blue.sky. n all the way higher ...
When is THAT pt ??

Food for thought.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 19:01 | Report Abuse

probability > Feb 9, 2019 06:37 PM | Report Abuse

Philip insights so far does not appear convincing...

================================

its ok Philips writings do not resonate with u.....it just means u will fail if u try ( his methods ).

stock market....u are only competing with yourself.....

Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 19:02 | Report Abuse

i cant even see a method...how to try?

Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 19:04 | Report Abuse

oh purebull...thats true also...

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 19:10 | Report Abuse

not trueloh...brks is trading at around pe 10x slightly above insas pe 6.5x loh...!!


Posted by PureBULL . > Feb 9, 2019 07:07 PM | Report Abuse

pic yourself,

how can BRKA keep gg higher n higher till ur warren b becomes the richest person who only buy stocks not doing direct biz.
His BRKA always go new.high

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 19:11 | Report Abuse

y probability > Feb 9, 2019 07:02 PM | Report Abuse

i cant even see a method...how to try?
===========

Top Glove, Harta lega, QL, Public Bank, Yinson............they all have more similarities than differences......if you know where to look.......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 19:14 | Report Abuse

(Icon) To Outperform The Market, You Need To Be A Contrarian

everybody thinks he is a contrarian but only a few will succeed.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 19:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 19:18 | Report Abuse

Again looking at rear mirror and start talking cock loh...!!

I see Ql performance since competition started nothing special loh..!!

Why leh ?? Why previously special ??

Bcos we r going fwd looking at the future which so far QL no performance loh...!!

Why previously got good performance leh ??
It is like my uncle looking at last week.. 4 ekor draw...he can tell me which number strike 1st prize loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 9, 2019 07:11 PM | Report Abuse

y probability > Feb 9, 2019 07:02 PM | Report Abuse

i cant even see a method...how to try?
===========

Top Glove, Harta lega, QL, Public Bank, Yinson............they all have more similarities than differences......if you know where to look.......

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 19:19 | Report Abuse

Probability, Howard marks, Peter lunch, Warren Buffett all invest in the same way. There is no calculation of exact method if you are looking for it because investing is not a science. There is no formula that always works. It is more an art than science. It is a series of mindsets:

From all their annual reports, brk:

We select our marketable equity securities in much the same way we would evaluate a business for acquisition in its entirety.
We want the business to be (1) one that we can understand, (2) with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and
competent people, and (4) available at an attractive price.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 19:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 19:20 | Report Abuse

a few of us are greedy bxxtards ma...we need extraordinary returns...without that we cannot establish financial freedom ma...

unlike filthy rich 3ii

Posted by 3iii > Feb 9, 2019 07:16 PM | Report Abuse


Any investor that matters, will love:

To be approximately right than to be absolutely wrong.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 19:24 | Report Abuse

Purebull if I am you, I will follow TAKAFUL closely. Their use of float is horrible ( they can only invest in shariah compliant stocks), but their underwriting profit from takaful family is fabulous.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 19:24 | Report Abuse

This is precisely the problem of growth investment mah...!!

4) available at an attractive price.
They say QL and NESTLE PE 50x and say available at attractive price loh?

U can say INSAS at PE 6.5x and alot of cash at available at attractive price loh....!!

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 9, 2019 07:19 PM | Report Abuse

Probability, Howard marks, Peter lunch, Warren Buffett all invest in the same way. There is no calculation of exact method if you are looking for it because investing is not a science. There is no formula that always works. It is more an art than science. It is a series of mindsets:

From all their annual reports, brk:

We select our marketable equity securities in much the same way we would evaluate a business for acquisition in its entirety.
We want the business to be (1) one that we can understand, (2) with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and
competent people, and (4) available at an attractive price.

Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 19:24 | Report Abuse

i can understand and agree on all these (1),(2),(3)...but you have not linked or elaborated (4) on these companies


Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 9, 2019 07:19 PM | Report Abuse

Probability, Howard marks, Peter lunch, Warren Buffett all invest in the same way. There is no calculation of exact method if you are looking for it because investing is not a science. There is no formula that always works. It is more an art than science. It is a series of mindsets:

From all their annual reports, brk:

We select our marketable equity securities in much the same way we would evaluate a business for acquisition in its entirety.
We want the business to be (1) one that we can understand, (2) with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and
competent people, and (4) available at an attractive price.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 19:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 19:31 | Report Abuse

and finally....no one ever succeeds in a meaningful way if u have 50 different stocks.....unless u are PNB or Temasek with too much money to invest.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 19:37 | Report Abuse

Not true loh....!!

Raider have been successful with about 50 stock b4...under napshot 45 selection....this is demonstrated mah...i think 3iii look into it b4 napshot 45 & the portfolio outperform loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 9, 2019 07:31 PM | Report Abuse

and finally....no one ever succeeds in a meaningful way if u have 50 different stocks.....unless u are PNB or Temasek with too much money to invest.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 19:37 | Report Abuse

If you are poor at birth or in your earlier career, don't blame yourself.

If you die poor, please realise you have not been intelligent in managing your money over a lifetime. There ia no one to blame, but yourself.


For the young investors in i3, your greatest asset today is the long time (decades) you have to compound your money.

Learn investing well and grow very rich through compounding over many years.

Compounding at later period of your long time in successful investing gives absolute returns at quantum you can't imagine at the beginning of your journey. The snowball just grows bigger and bigger.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 19:40 | Report Abuse

It is already proven & demonstrated successfully with my insas margin of safety selection...now up almost 20% pa....it is all up bcos of skillful margin of safety mah...!!

Margin of safety if u r confident & discipline like raider loh..!!

Posted by 3iii > Feb 9, 2019 07:29 PM | Report Abuse

Margin of safety

To benefit from this:


You must know the difference between price and value.

You must be able to derive intrinsic value using conservative assumptions.

You must have the discipline and patience to buy below intrinsic value (with a margin of safety) and to or not sell, above intrinsic value.


Raider's play in many stocks illustrated none of the above.

His involvement in HY was a very clear example that:

He does not know the difference between price and value.

He was not able to value his share well, using conservative assumptions.

He was not patient or disciplined in his buying and selling of his share, though claiming to buy and sell based on values.


He is a fraud. He should go back to be educated on his margin of safety principles again. Let us not propagate his delusion.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 19:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by lizi > 2019-02-09 19:44 | Report Abuse

Attractive price? Is attractive price so important? If u follow warren or charlie method, i believe finding out attractive price is not so important.....this is illustrated by his 2 quotes
1. It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.
2. Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

Combining above 2, with long holding, that's it...provided u r right at the first place

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 19:44 | Report Abuse

Probability,

That is because you don't look at things the same way I do.
Let me give you some insight,

In 2009 when I bought ql they had 89 million earnings with 1.3 billion sales.
In 2013 they did 2.1 billion sales and 131 earnings.
In 2017 they did 3 billion sales and 200 million earnings.

What is the long term earnings that you can guess in 2022? How much revenue will family Mart add and earnings add in 2022?, How much will the other items add in 2022?

How about 2025? When do you think growth will end and earnings become flat? Is it in 2019? Will they crash their business this year?

Or do I have a insight on how ql in long term can get 8 billion revenue and 500 million earnings yearly flat when it exits growth stage?

Obviously I don't have an insight on that. That's why I rely on contrarianism from everyone in i3. Or optimism. Or idiotism. Or quarterly reports updates.

So far my journey since 2009 is on track and not done. I'm constantly changing my long term view on QL.

Same with YINSON. Same with topglove. Same with PBB. Same with STNE. When the story changes I sell.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 19:45 | Report Abuse

Some one asked, why aiming for 15% per year in your investing for the long term.


Do you think this is possible?

How do you screen and analyse for these stocks capable of delivering 15% per year, with a high degree of probability, for the long term?
1





Don't ask raider, he doesn't have a clue.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 19:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 19:48 | Report Abuse

Again crystral ball grazing and speculative with no margin of safety anchor with high PE above 50x loh...!!

U expect the business will grow leh, how u know leh ?

U think growth rate is 15% how u know leh ??

U extrapolate the earnings over many qtrs & yrs n thought u know alot...but u don really know mah...!!

Bcos even the management & the insider cannot even able to project & predict the next qtr loh...!!

Another thing...3iii says expect growth rate 15%...why u think this rate is just a hope loh....!!

General Growth investment is speculative and use crystral ball more than value investment mah....!!

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 9, 2019 07:44 PM | Report Abuse

Probability,

That is because you don't look at things the same way I do.
Let me give you some insight,

In 2009 when I bought ql they had 89 million earnings with 1.3 billion sales.
In 2013 they did 2.1 billion sales and 131 earnings.
In 2017 they did 3 billion sales and 200 million earnings.

What is the long term earnings that you can guess in 2022? How much revenue will family Mart add and earnings add in 2022?, How much will the other items add in 2022?

How about 2025? When do you think growth will end and earnings become flat? Is it in 2019? Will they crash their business this year?

Or do I have a insight on how ql in long term can get 8 billion revenue and 500 million earnings yearly flat when it exits growth stage?

Obviously I don't have an insight on that. That's why I rely on contrarianism from everyone in i3. Or optimism. Or idiotism. Or quarterly reports updates.

So far my journey since 2009 is on track and not done. I'm constantly changing my long term view on QL.

Same with YINSON. Same with topglove. Same with PBB. Same with STNE. When the story changes I sell.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 19:51 | Report Abuse

Stockraider average 15% yearly return on 45 stocks many years until today? Impressive. Sell buy sell buy everyday win big!

I can't fight general raider. He is the best!

Luckily this is not a competition. There is no winner or loser in the long term.

I only compete with my previous self.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 19:51 | Report Abuse

IT is not even a fair price when u push QL and nestle with PE 50x mah........!!

Posted by 3iii > Feb 9, 2019 07:47 PM | Report Abuse

>>>

lizi Attractive price? Is attractive price so important? If u follow warren or charlie method, i believe finding out attractive price is not so important.....this is illustrated by his 2 quotes
1. It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.
2. Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

Combining above 2, with long holding, that's it...provided u r right at the first place
09/02/2019 19:44
>>>>

Posted by Alex™ > 2019-02-09 19:53 | Report Abuse

The converse is also true. In order to underperform the market, you need to act differently than the market.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-09 19:53 | Report Abuse

I sold alot of them even b4 they reach 3 yrs loh....!!

Bcos already hit target even much more than 50% gain mah....!!

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 9, 2019 07:51 PM | Report Abuse

Stockraider average 15% yearly return on 45 stocks many years until today? Impressive. Sell buy sell buy everyday win big!

I can't fight general raider. He is the best!

Luckily this is not a competition. There is no winner or loser in the long term.

I only compete with my previous self.