Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-10 09:06 | Report Abuse

I was exposed to ql since 2003 when the company I worked at started doing work for QL frozen plant and palm oil refinery in tawau and kalimba tan Uber ql boilermech. I got to see their capex growth first hand, and the number of new boats they buy, new feedmills and processing plants they do. From 2005-2008 I started to monitor their annual report, I really liked what I saw. But that time since owing money to a lot of people from bad stock market decisions I doubt myself in buying. In 2009, the annual report still doing very good things. After 4 years of good governance I decide to go in, after I saw Dr chia new expansion plans for QL.

So in some way insider information. But I think I stay in the stock for far longer than most insiders, because I kept buying the same stock for 10 years now from 2009 until 2019.

Who knows if the results for this quarter is also good, and the company no nasty surprise, I will continue to buy.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-10 09:22 | Report Abuse

Yes !!! So QL is about Insider Information

(Strictly speaking, those information is not really "Insider Information", because Insider Information is usually associated with specific corporate events. While in your case, it is information about the operation)

I am not trying to belittle you, as I too have benefited from such information before (now no more such privilege). So, the moment you mentioned it, I immediately understand the power of such info.

No wonder you keep buying QL.

That is why all this while I am not convinced by the arguments that your persistent investment in QL is because you have successfully identified its moat (until now I still don't believe it has moat).

Because no matter how I look at it, from whatever angle, I don't see hints of moat.

Great, now the mystery has been solved, and I can finally sleep well at night !!!

=======================================





Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 10, 2019 09:06 AM | Report Abuse

I was exposed to ql since 2003 when the company I worked at started doing work for QL frozen plant and palm oil refinery in tawau and kalimba tan Uber ql boilermech. I got to see their capex growth first hand, and the number of new boats they buy, new feedmills and processing plants they do. From 2005-2008 I started to monitor their annual report, I really liked what I saw. But that time since owing money to a lot of people from bad stock market decisions I doubt myself in buying. In 2009, the annual report still doing very good things. After 4 years of good governance I decide to go in, after I saw Dr chia new expansion plans for QL.

So in some way insider information. But I think I stay in the stock for far longer than most insiders, because I kept buying the same stock for 10 years now from 2009 until 2019.

Who knows if the results for this quarter is also good, and the company no nasty surprise, I will continue to buy.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-10 09:29 | Report Abuse

Meaning that you don't really have a proper analytical or theoretical framework to carry out successful investment. You are purely relying on insider information.

(meaning in the future I shouldn't give too much weightage to your comments when come to non QL stocks. Now at least I know where I stand)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-10 09:32 | Report Abuse

Operational Insider Info is very powerful. Sometime you don't need them to tell you much. All it takes is an elbow on the rib "things are working well, next year can be even better".

I have experienced it before. And I bet big and won 10 out of 10 times. Those are the days.... I missed it....

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-10 09:40 | Report Abuse

I think your idea of insider info and mine is totally different.

Kyy and aminvest went to Vietnam to view the status of the jaks power plant. How did that turn out?

Warren visited the HQ of GEICO, many others did but he saw something different that other people didn't.

I used the same operational framework for YINSON, topglove and public bank. I spend time to understand my investments, which is why I'm confused someone can buy 50 stocks and promote 20 more. Every stock I buy is carefully understood.

I could tell you my wife works at public bank. Does that constitute insider information that allows me to purchase stocks in public bank since 2012?

Most information are really available to serious investors and business owners. In fact I find it weird for me that everyone is investing heavily into hengyuan and CARIMIN without trying to understand the business model or visiting the plants. Hengyuan plant in is peninsular Malaysia, its not like it's in Brazil. Why not drive over, take a look, request for a tour? It's your investment!

What is the harm of understanding your business properly before betting the farm on it? In fact, if you wanted to buy a new bungalow house, wouldn't you want to visit the developer showroom, see the showhouse, interview your friend who works with the developer?

Should investing 1 million in pieces of paper warrant the same kind of dedication and attention?

Posted by tan81 > 2019-02-10 09:40 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, how ur wce, top up more?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-10 09:42 | Report Abuse

never mind, there is no need to win the argument against you

I just wish to know whether I should follow your so called moat based investment

and now I have the answer

that is all I need

thanks



Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 10, 2019 09:40 AM | Report Abuse

I think your idea of insider info and mine is totally different.

Kyy and aminvest went to Vietnam to view the status of the jaks power plant. How did that turn out?

Warren visited the HQ of GEICO, many others did but he saw something different that other people didn't.

I used the same operational framework for YINSON, topglove and public bank. I spend time to understand my investments, which is why I'm confused someone can buy 50 stocks and promote 20 more. Every stock I buy is carefully understood.

I could tell you my wife works at public bank. Does that constitute insider information that allows me to purchase stocks in public bank since 2012?

Most information are really available to serious investors and business owners. In fact I find it weird for me that everyone is investing heavily into hengyuan and CARIMIN without trying to understand the business model or visiting the plants. Hengyuan plant in is peninsular Malaysia, its not like it's in Brazil. Why not drive over, take a look, request for a tour? It's your investment!

What is the harm of understanding your business properly before betting the farm on it? In fact, if you wanted to buy a new bungalow house, wouldn't you want to visit the developer showroom, see the showhouse, interview your friend who works with the developer?

Should investing 1 million in pieces of paper warrant the same kind of dedication and attention?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-10 09:44 | Report Abuse

My exposure to QL is simply this:

I visited the plants to do upgrades and installations.
I met with the management, made friends with them. Never have they told me to buy QL shares or told me how their future quarterly report was going to go.
In terms of payment, QL was the best paymaster we ever had. We got paid on the dot. PO and VO was raised without request for discounts. They were willing to pay for airfreight, speed was more important than price.

If you asked any of QL customers they would tell you the same.

How many of them acted on and bought stock?

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-10 09:46 | Report Abuse

3iii..me got zapped by hrc....lol..
I underestimated ur imagination.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-10 09:47 | Report Abuse

see you around, Philips

have a nice day

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-10 09:48 | Report Abuse

Raider...ur fren 3iii is starting to show his real colours....tokok king

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-10 09:53 | Report Abuse

To be honest you already knew since the day shell sold to hengyuan, that it was a fixer upper and hengyuan was going to have to do upgrades to the refinery plant to do ron92.

Downtime was almost guaranteed. It was a question of when.

Did that require insider knowledge or some fancy insight, I live it up to you to decide.

Posted by Ayoyo > 2019-02-10 11:02 | Report Abuse

###rchi ayoyo,i have been reading your posts...looks like we are more alike then not...i think i shall leave now as most here are investors....we might be wasting time here....hahaha....come to my telegram group with tj if you are free...the name iiggtradergroup ####

I read your posts and see you are a master trader at call warrants - something I'm not competent to trade because of my limiting belief system of it being heavily skewed against the public .. Can learn something from you there..

I do join various chat groups but don't visit them or chat often as I'm always glued to the screen during trading hours as I could be holding sometimes up to 8 open positions or hawking for momentum breakouts .. During the breaks, I meditate or nap after lunch to rest my mind.. Thanks for the invite.. Will look into it

And I do see similarities in our trading venture.. Can learn from you too.. Thanks again

And I thank people like icon, Phillips, choivo, OTB, uncle kyy, Calvin, kcchong, Rickyyeo and many others for giving us trading ideas . Make peace, not quarrels.. And most of all, be thankful for the differing perspectives

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-10 11:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-10 12:00 | Report Abuse

raider,now we all know hahaha


stockraider > Feb 10, 2019 11:56 AM | Report Abuse

Rchi,

AS USUAL THIS 3iii IS LIKE THAT LOH....VERY BAD CHARACTER...ONCE HE LOSSES ARGUEMENT OR JEALOUS & ENVY HE WILL CREATE FAKE NEWS LOH..!!

VERY IMMATURE....WHY CAN'T HE FIGHT LIKE A REAL MAN LEH ??
BCOS NO BALLS AND A COWARD MAH...!!

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-10 12:06 | Report Abuse

hi ayoyo,tq for the compliments,i would just say i m a bit better than most in cw's...i specialize in this instrument as the leverage factor is magnified many folds...but of course,we have to be always beware of the double edged sword.
me too have something to learn from you..as the saying goes...when we stop learning...the rest of the world will leave us behind...good day.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-10 12:18 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Boomerang > 2019-02-10 12:41 | Report Abuse

hi ayoyo,tq for the compliments,i would just say i m a bit better than most in cw's...i specialize in this instrument as the leverage factor is magnified many folds...but of course,we have to be always beware of the double edged sword.
me too have something to learn from you..as the saying goes...when we stop learning...the rest of the world will leave us behind...good day.
10/02/2019 12:06


Correct lor. Some so called market fundamentalists only living in their own world. They think what they are practicing are the best. Others are no thing.
If they are so good why don't they enter the stock pick competition or issue buy call to convince the public since they are so eager to establish themselves. Kiasu kiasi cowards. Pkmcbai.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-10 12:52 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-10 12:53 | Report Abuse

3iii a nosy bargirl loh....!!

Posted by 3iii > Feb 10, 2019 12:52 PM | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 10, 2019 09:32 AM | Report Abuse

Operational Insider Info is very powerful. Sometime you don't need them to tell you much. All it takes is an elbow on the rib "things are working well, next year can be even better".

I have experienced it before. And I bet big and won 10 out of 10 times. Those are the days.... I missed it.... >>>



A retiree.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-10 13:18 | Report Abuse

(S = Qr) Philip > Feb 10, 2019 09:53 AM | Report Abuse

To be honest you already knew since the day shell sold to hengyuan, that it was a fixer upper and hengyuan was going to have to do upgrades to the refinery plant to do ron92.

Downtime was almost guaranteed. It was a question of when.

=========================

Stock market.....short term is all about illusion, its all an illusion , all emotional and sentimental.

The job of traders is to profit from emotional and sentimental changes.

Big problem arises only when people unable to separate short term plays from long term plays......and most of the research write ups are to encourage short term plays , even things like value here , value there, tp here tp there is to encourage short term plays.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-10 13:20 | Report Abuse

A big mistake is to be like raider.....his short term , long term all mixed up

Not able to separate short term from long term is a common novice mistake.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-10 13:34 | Report Abuse

Who don know they will be an upgrade, it is a public news mah ??

Also why mat salleh sold bcos they don want to spend alot of monies on upgrade mah.....!!

Also every 3 yrs petroleum plant need to shutdown for about 1.5 mths for safety inspection loh...!!

This news already factor in...nothing special mah...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 01:18 PM | Report Abuse

(S = Qr) Philip > Feb 10, 2019 09:53 AM | Report Abuse

To be honest you already knew since the day shell sold to hengyuan, that it was a fixer upper and hengyuan was going to have to do upgrades to the refinery plant to do ron92.

Downtime was almost guaranteed. It was a question of when.

=========================

Stock market.....short term is all about illusion, its all an illusion , all emotional and sentimental.

The job of traders is to profit from emotional and sentimental changes.

Big problem arises only when people unable to separate short term plays from long term plays......and most of the research write ups are to encourage short term plays , even things like value here , value there, tp here tp there is to encourage short term plays.


qqq3
7952 posts
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 01:20 PM | Report Abuse

A big mistake is to be like raider.....his short term , long term all mixed up

Not able to separate short term from long term is a common novice mistake.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-10 13:36 | Report Abuse

Got meh ??

I thought u r the 1st to run...when raider shout sell at Rm 13.00 woh!!

Posted by Fortune Bull > Feb 10, 2019 01:34 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 01:20 PM | Report Abuse

A big mistake is to be like raider.....his short term , long term all mixed up

Not able to separate short term from long term is a common novice mistake.

Answer : At least Qqq3 provide many winners! As for Raider, haix, no comment, talk so much can't even sell when the price already max out! Trap so many innocent victims!

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-10 13:42 | Report Abuse

>>>

Posted by Fortune Bull > Feb 10, 2019 01:34 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 01:20 PM | Report Abuse

A big mistake is to be like raider.....his short term , long term all mixed up

Not able to separate short term from long term is a common novice mistake.

Answer : At least Qqq3 provide many winners! As for Raider, haix, no comment, talk so much can't even sell when the price already max out! Trap so many innocent victims!

>>>>>



Trap so many innocent victims! ... including rchi during CNY 2018. (Check this out).


Not sure if they are victims.

Just not smart.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-10 13:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-10 13:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-10 13:52 | Report Abuse

She ？


Fortune Bull That's why i never bash Qqq3! Because many times she did provide me with useful intel!
10/02/2019 13:41

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-10 13:53 | Report Abuse

U misinterpreted calvin tan kind intention loh, by advising people to buy undervalue stock and hold for 3 yrs...u r investing long term ...not trap mah....!!

If u follow 3iii and philip u r investing for 10 yrs that is even longer mah....!!

Just that people cannot tahan & want fast monies ....very fast...thus they felt got trap loh...!!

Posted by Fortune Bull > Feb 10, 2019 01:49 PM | Report Abuse

What Calvin! He is Holland King! He trap so many newbies! Undisputed Hollander!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-10 13:54 | Report Abuse

kc focuses on untested small caps which are neither good for trading or for investments......neither here nor there.....


KC no guts for trading, no desire to go long term.....

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-10 13:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-10 14:16 | Report Abuse

U tell that to 3iii and Philip loh...!!

Posted by Fortune Bull > Feb 10, 2019 02:15 PM | Report Abuse

What! Hold for 3 years! Dude, you can make tons of money holding for 3 weeks! What planet are you from!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-10 14:47 | Report Abuse

I think for Phillip, QL is almost like a family business d. He is close to the QL family, the bosses etc. This is more personal than just pure numbers. It made him 10x or so d and save him from his debts, and gave his family a good life. There is some sentiment there.



Icon8888, all these angmoh theory too academic. Not practical. Only work in foreign markets and not Malaysia. Hahaha.

Thanks. This was really useful. Would appreciate the title of the book or blog you got it from.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-10 14:48 | Report Abuse

I think it's the same post from 25iq. But I'm hoping it's from a nice thick book I can dig into haha.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-10 14:52 | Report Abuse

Raider bro,

When you talk about investing in general, you sound logical.

But the moment you talk about stocks, hy, evergreen, insas etc. You start to sound a little to very illogical.

Do note by both metrics, quantitative (pb discount, and ev/ebit) or qualitative. They are far better options than insas in klse now. It's worth a holding a little, but not alot imho.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-10 15:06 | Report Abuse

I guess I was lucky that I found a business I understood, within my circle of competence, fit Peter lunch idea of long for businesses around you. But the was also many ql staff and workers, even my boss he knows the chia brothers directly and gets invited during CNY.

But did they all buy and hold QL? I don't think so.

There is much to be said on receiving public information, seeing the different future possibilities and acting on it.

That is where I think the efficient market school gets out wrong. Everyone gets the same info, they see 1+1, they think it equals 2. I see 1+1, I think it equals 2 now, but long term it can go to 11. That's part of being a contrarian.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-10 15:08 | Report Abuse

Exactly Jon!

That's what confused me about stockraider. He says he looks margin of safety, but goes ahead and promotes horribly risky companies with declining growths.

>>>
Raider bro,

When you talk about investing in general, you sound logical.

But the moment you talk about stocks, hy, evergreen, insas etc. You start to sound a little to very illogical.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-10 15:25 | Report Abuse

SS Lee damn upset now. He toiled for 3 days 3 nights tearing QL apart to try to figure out its moat and intrinsic value, only to find out it is insider info.

LOL

And qqq3 wrote passionately about S = QR etc (which until now I still don’t understand) to try to explain the QL story. At the end, it is insider info.

Tell them earlier lah. Save them the hassles running around like headless chicken

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-10 15:26 | Report Abuse

>>>

Posted by stockraider > Feb 10, 2019 02:16 PM | Report Abuse

U tell that to 3iii and Philip loh...!!

Posted by Fortune Bull > Feb 10, 2019 02:15 PM | Report Abuse

What! Hold for 3 years! Dude, you can make tons of money holding for 3 weeks! What planet are you from!


>>>>




Well, raider talks loudly. Little to show.

Posted by probability > 2019-02-10 15:28 | Report Abuse

Icon, but even with insider info...i cant understand how Philip knows the price will keep moving up...insider info on business performance or insider info that owner will push up the price?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-10 15:32 | Report Abuse

On hind sight, probability’s complaint is spot on.

—————————-


probability > Feb 9, 2019 06:37 PM | Report Abuse

Philip insights so far does not appear convincing...

probability : i cant even see a method...how to try?
09/02/2019 19:02

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-10 15:32 | Report Abuse

>>>

Raider bro,

When you talk about investing in general, you sound logical.

But the moment you talk about stocks, hy, evergreen, insas etc. You start to sound a little to very illogical.

>>>>



He talks a lot on margin of safety.

Yet his ability to price an asset is lacking.

Thus his margin of safety principle is on poor unsound ground.

Accordingly his results.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-10 15:35 | Report Abuse

Probability,

Phillip did not have insider. He had public information given to him in an easier way.

He could see the business, talk to fellow suppliers and see ql customers. He could see the bosses, how they act, how they think about business, how they run the business.

And from this, he decided, given the level of comfort he has towards the business, he is willing to pay premium.

He gets to know the bosses well, and they tell him how the business is going, the industry dynamics, theirs plans. He ask his questions, they answer it well.

He feels more comfortable and continues buying the stocks. Sometimes at higher, other times at lower valaution.

He becomes so close with the bosses, that it becomes abit of a family business now. Strong sentiment attached to it.

And to an extent, he gets lucky as the Malaysian market dynamics works with him, local funds need to buy msia stocks, cant buy small cap, and have herd mentality. One buy ql, all buy ql.

Remember, Bill ackman had the same experience with Micheal Pearson, the former ceo of valeant. That experience almost killed his entire fund.

Posted by paperplane > 2019-02-10 15:38 | Report Abuse

作者：愛德華・索普追蹤作者
原文作者：Edward O. Thorp
譯者： 唐祖蔭
出版社：商業周刊訂閱出版社新書快訊
出版日期：2018/07/26
79折$379
優惠期限：2019年03月15日止

Posted by paperplane > 2019-02-10 15:39 | Report Abuse

Another good book is Ray Dalio principle

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-10 15:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-10 15:43 | Report Abuse

QL's rise is based on a few premises....

-its a Sabah company. Sabah champions have such premiums
-good reputation and good story
- Family Mart is a a great story.....yet to make any money yet.

- excellent management....

Like Philips say.....everyone can have assess to same information, everyone reacts differently.....

Luck or skill on Philip part?

I say Philips has the intellectual capacity to benefit from his knowledge about QL.


others NO.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-10 15:46 | Report Abuse

Do not take any thing away from Philip intellectual capacity to benefit from a great company......

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-10 15:48 | Report Abuse

@paperplane

I bought the thorp book as per your recommendation. The ray dalio book is not about investing ?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-10 15:49 | Report Abuse

Personally I do not see any difference between KC, Calvin and raider......all no business sense......no qualitative sense....all based on maths......