you had linked the growth of revenue and earning as justification for holding the stocks...
but, you had not given any justification on the magnitude of the earnings with the price to hold..
are we to hold on to these as long the direction revenue and earnings are increasing?
are we not concerned on the magnitude of the rise/change we expect?
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 9, 2019 07:44 PM | Report Abuse
Probability,
That is because you don't look at things the same way I do. Let me give you some insight,
In 2009 when I bought ql they had 89 million earnings with 1.3 billion sales. In 2013 they did 2.1 billion sales and 131 earnings. In 2017 they did 3 billion sales and 200 million earnings.
What is the long term earnings that you can guess in 2022? How much revenue will family Mart add and earnings add in 2022?, How much will the other items add in 2022?
How about 2025? When do you think growth will end and earnings become flat? Is it in 2019? Will they crash their business this year?
Or do I have a insight on how ql in long term can get 8 billion revenue and 500 million earnings yearly flat when it exits growth stage?
Obviously that is why I monitor closely every quarter results lo.
So far since 2009 has the story changed? What has its historical cagr been? Has it made a lost in any quarter? Has it failed to turn a profit?
You look at ql and you say it can't do it. I look at my report card and see no reason why I should doubt the management.
Have they ever failed me yet?
Has your wonderful insas ever failed you? For all it's margin of safety. This quarter it had lower revenue and profits of last year, and half the revenue of previous quarter and earnings mainly from selling it's inari stock. Is it growing organically?
thanks for the very enlightening statement...this is where 3ii has advantage..
Posted by Alex™ > Feb 9, 2019 07:53 PM | Report Abuse
The converse is also true. In order to underperform the market, you need to act differently than the market.
Posted by probability> Feb 8, 2019 03:07 PM | Report Abuse
3ii sifu...i finally figure out one positive aspect of your investment strategy....
the power of stocks selection with very simple valuation (easy to value)...giving higher certainty of correctness on intrinsic valuation (lesser deviation level)...though this strategy does not give you much edge over the market at large....
but...by at least following the herd-the market (controlled by institutional investors)...ensures you obtain a reasonable return at cost of equity...
so its a great investment strategy
......................
hope the above helps to express your strategy to others much easily...instead of debating without an end with raider...
perhaps its also enlightening to you 'why it works' (your own strategy)
If you are happy with 15 % pa in malaysian bursa,so be it.This is because 15 % per week or per day is beyond your comprehension and imagination. Someone once said.."we all get what we deserve out of the market".
after all being said,for the sake of newbies,i have to clarify you should aim first for 15% pa....however,after 10 yrs if you still aim 15 % pa...you have only yourself to blame....hahaha.
I do mostly agree with rchi... However, it's got more to do with knowing thyself than mr market per se.. Markets are various dynamics at play.. What are you as a speculator?
For instance, to be a contrarian, you will not only need a sizeable account balance but probably, a larger dose of patience..
If one has a unique ability to time short term plays and to do it consistently, a few bids will eventually end up a molehill..
And if you believe that one can never time the market consistently, I shall stop explaining myself because your understanding is realized from your level of perception
Rchi...i tot is the other way round...at early stages aim high high...double your capitals...when big big already go for lower return but stable income...enjoy life...life is precious...money cannot win all one..
ayoyo,i have been reading your posts...looks like we are more alike then not...i think i shall leave now as most here are investors....we might be wasting time here....hahaha....come to my telegram group with tj if you are free...the name iiggtradergroup
(1) Sometimes waves of social proof and other dysfunctional heuristics create a significant gap between price and value. This does not happen often in areas within a person’s circle of competence, but it does happen. For some investors, spotting a gap like this happens only once or twice a year and that is just fine with them. In those instances these investors bet big and the rest of the time they do nothin
(2) The best returns accrue to investors who are patient and yet aggressive when they are offered an attractive price for an asset.
3iii,fgv c63 has returned me sufficient enough for 1 yr of my expenses....meaning i dun need to do another trade for 1 yr...as for how much capital i put in,i leave it to your imagination,even tho you are not the imaginative type.
<<< Posted by rchi > Feb 9, 2019 08:38 PM | Report Abuse
3iii,fgv c63 has returned me sufficient enough for 1 yr of my expenses....meaning i dun need to do another trade for 1 yr...as for how much capital i put in,i leave it to your imagination,even tho you are not the imaginative type. <<<<
I doubt if you can keep away from trading for 1 whole year.
3iii,what happened?you are supposed to give lectures on the benefits of compounding over many many yrs...why do you want to guess whether i can keep away from mkt or not?
guessing is not your cup of tea,stick to your lectures...
<<< Posted by rchi > Feb 9, 2019 08:38 PM | Report Abuse
3iii,fgv c63 has returned me sufficient enough for 1 yr of my expenses....meaning i dun need to do another trade for 1 yr...as for how much capital i put in,i leave it to your imagination,even tho you are not the imaginative type. <<<<
On contrary, I think Malaysia market is the lowest it had been in years. When all the other stock markets are flailing, I think this year Malaysia stock market will do very well overall.
Philip,i can't help answering your post.You did trading for 3 yrs only.I have been doing it for 25 yrs.Hahaha.There are many ways to slaughter a cat. That is why i said it is ok if someone feel ok with 15% pa.
Talk too much no use. I believe write down pros n cons why u buy/sell a stock and review back. You might even come out with your own investment secret which only suitable to yourself and make money happily
People with substance dare to make stock calls...like icon...otb...myself.Those without tokok all night long like......Even his best friend raider make stk calls n stand by them..go back to ur college n lecture those kids la.Here at i3 we fight real war,not war games.Wakaka.
Posted by rchi > Feb 9, 2019 11:28 PM | Report Abuse
People with substance dare to make stock calls...like icon...otb...myself.Those without tokok all night long like......Even his best friend raider make stk calls n stand by them..go back to ur college n lecture those kids la.Here at i3 we fight real war,not war games.Wakaka.
New IPO: The onshore and offshore support services provider for the O&G industry, Steel Hawk Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 3245 views | 3 d ago
0:17
New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
probability
14,466 posts
Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 19:55 | Report Abuse
you had linked the growth of revenue and earning as justification for holding the stocks...
but, you had not given any justification on the magnitude of the earnings with the price to hold..
are we to hold on to these as long the direction revenue and earnings are increasing?
are we not concerned on the magnitude of the rise/change we expect?
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 9, 2019 07:44 PM | Report Abuse
Probability,
That is because you don't look at things the same way I do.
Let me give you some insight,
In 2009 when I bought ql they had 89 million earnings with 1.3 billion sales.
In 2013 they did 2.1 billion sales and 131 earnings.
In 2017 they did 3 billion sales and 200 million earnings.
What is the long term earnings that you can guess in 2022? How much revenue will family Mart add and earnings add in 2022?, How much will the other items add in 2022?
How about 2025? When do you think growth will end and earnings become flat? Is it in 2019? Will they crash their business this year?
Or do I have a insight on how ql in long term can get 8 billion revenue and 500 million earnings yearly flat when it exits growth stage?