Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 19:55 | Report Abuse

you had linked the growth of revenue and earning as justification for holding the stocks...

but, you had not given any justification on the magnitude of the earnings with the price to hold..

are we to hold on to these as long the direction revenue and earnings are increasing?

are we not concerned on the magnitude of the rise/change we expect?


Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 9, 2019 07:44 PM | Report Abuse

Probability,

That is because you don't look at things the same way I do.
Let me give you some insight,

In 2009 when I bought ql they had 89 million earnings with 1.3 billion sales.
In 2013 they did 2.1 billion sales and 131 earnings.
In 2017 they did 3 billion sales and 200 million earnings.

What is the long term earnings that you can guess in 2022? How much revenue will family Mart add and earnings add in 2022?, How much will the other items add in 2022?

How about 2025? When do you think growth will end and earnings become flat? Is it in 2019? Will they crash their business this year?

Or do I have a insight on how ql in long term can get 8 billion revenue and 500 million earnings yearly flat when it exits growth stage?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 19:59 | Report Abuse

Obviously that is why I monitor closely every quarter results lo.

So far since 2009 has the story changed? What has its historical cagr been? Has it made a lost in any quarter? Has it failed to turn a profit?

You look at ql and you say it can't do it. I look at my report card and see no reason why I should doubt the management.

Have they ever failed me yet?

Has your wonderful insas ever failed you? For all it's margin of safety. This quarter it had lower revenue and profits of last year, and half the revenue of previous quarter and earnings mainly from selling it's inari stock. Is it growing organically?

Is it giving you any belief?

Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 20:02 | Report Abuse

thanks for the very enlightening statement...this is where 3ii has advantage..

Posted by Alex™ > Feb 9, 2019 07:53 PM | Report Abuse

The converse is also true. In order to underperform the market, you need to act differently than the market.

Posted by probability> Feb 8, 2019 03:07 PM | Report Abuse

3ii sifu...i finally figure out one positive aspect of your investment strategy....

the power of stocks selection with very simple valuation (easy to value)...giving higher certainty of correctness on intrinsic valuation (lesser deviation level)...though this strategy does not give you much edge over the market at large....

but...by at least following the herd-the market (controlled by institutional investors)...ensures you obtain a reasonable return at cost of equity...

so its a great investment strategy

......................

hope the above helps to express your strategy to others much easily...instead of debating without an end with raider...

perhaps its also enlightening to you 'why it works' (your own strategy)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-09 20:05 | Report Abuse

I posted my article, went out for steam tilapia

come back with 68 comments !!!

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 20:05 | Report Abuse

If you are happy with 15 % pa in malaysian bursa,so be it.This is because 15 % per week or per day is beyond your comprehension and imagination.
Someone once said.."we all get what we deserve out of the market".

Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 20:06 | Report Abuse

your article got fried...

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 9, 2019 08:05 PM | Report Abuse

I posted my article, went out for steam tilapia

come back with 68 comments !!!

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 20:07 | Report Abuse

And of course you will never be able to catch a stock that rocketted 400% in january 2019 alone...like fgv-c63.It is ok as long you are happy.

Posted by lizi > 2019-02-09 20:09 | Report Abuse

I believe market means majority traders...

for investors, be it contrarian style, great business style, deep value style, income style, etc, they are minority i believe...

Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 20:12 | Report Abuse

market means the greater force which gives equilibrium - stability to the price in the long run...not short term wild price fluctuation makers..

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 20:13 | Report Abuse

after all being said,for the sake of newbies,i have to clarify you should aim first for 15% pa....however,after 10 yrs if you still aim 15 % pa...you have only yourself to blame....hahaha.

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 20:14 | Report Abuse

it does not matter what market is or is not,what matters is you should learn to know mr market.

Posted by lizi > 2019-02-09 20:23 | Report Abuse

Mr market is active market participant la....be it retail traders or fund managers...keep moving money around

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 20:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ayoyo > 2019-02-09 20:24 | Report Abuse

I do mostly agree with rchi... However, it's got more to do with knowing thyself than mr market per se.. Markets are various dynamics at play.. What are you as a speculator?

For instance, to be a contrarian, you will not only need a sizeable account balance but probably, a larger dose of patience..

If one has a unique ability to time short term plays and to do it consistently, a few bids will eventually end up a molehill..

And if you believe that one can never time the market consistently, I shall stop explaining myself because your understanding is realized from your level of perception

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 20:26 | Report Abuse

so you mean those that dun move money around are not part of market,then what are they?

Posted by lizi > 2019-02-09 20:27 | Report Abuse

Rchi...i tot is the other way round...at early stages aim high high...double your capitals...when big big already go for lower return but stable income...enjoy life...life is precious...money cannot win all one..

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 20:31 | Report Abuse

ayoyo,i have been reading your posts...looks like we are more alike then not...i think i shall leave now as most here are investors....we might be wasting time here....hahaha....come to my telegram group with tj if you are free...the name iiggtradergroup

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-09 20:31 | Report Abuse

My favourites :

(1) Sometimes waves of social proof and other dysfunctional heuristics create a significant gap between price and value. This does not happen often in areas within a person’s circle of competence, but it does happen. For some investors, spotting a gap like this happens only once or twice a year and that is just fine with them. In those instances these investors bet big and the rest of the time they do nothin

(2) The best returns accrue to investors who are patient and yet aggressive when they are offered an attractive price for an asset.

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 20:34 | Report Abuse

lizi...agree life is precious...but for me,trading is a part of my life...i get so bored on holidays....haha

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 20:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 20:38 | Report Abuse

3iii,fgv c63 has returned me sufficient enough for 1 yr of my expenses....meaning i dun need to do another trade for 1 yr...as for how much capital i put in,i leave it to your imagination,even tho you are not the imaginative type.

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 20:41 | Report Abuse

dun compare to philip,he has 20 mil at least,i hv only 25% of 20 mil...maybe you have 25% of my 25%...oops

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 20:45 | Report Abuse

<<<
Posted by rchi > Feb 9, 2019 08:38 PM | Report Abuse

3iii,fgv c63 has returned me sufficient enough for 1 yr of my expenses....meaning i dun need to do another trade for 1 yr...as for how much capital i put in,i leave it to your imagination,even tho you are not the imaginative type.
<<<<



I doubt if you can keep away from trading for 1 whole year.

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 20:49 | Report Abuse

3iii,what happened?you are supposed to give lectures on the benefits of compounding over many many yrs...why do you want to guess whether i can keep away from mkt or not?

guessing is not your cup of tea,stick to your lectures...

bye everyone,sorry for butting in.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 20:52 | Report Abuse

>>>

<<<
Posted by rchi > Feb 9, 2019 08:38 PM | Report Abuse

3iii,fgv c63 has returned me sufficient enough for 1 yr of my expenses....meaning i dun need to do another trade for 1 yr...as for how much capital i put in,i leave it to your imagination,even tho you are not the imaginative type.
<<<<




Hardly a sincere post.

Is he a remisier too?

Posted by probability > 2019-02-09 20:53 | Report Abuse

i also want escape...sorry for all the lectures...i am newbie in market...just an aspiring student...

for any investment theory please consult 3ii, raider, philip, icon and KC...

bye bye everyone

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 20:56 | Report Abuse

I sure hope he does well, I did that for 3 years trading options. Then I've black swan event semua hilang.

:(

Should have followed icon8888 instead back then.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 20:59 | Report Abuse

I must be the most boring, sloth investor in this forum. :-)

I am so glad to learn from everyone here.

On what I should do in my investing. Also on what I should not do in my investing.

Posted by hollandking > 2019-02-09 21:04 | Report Abuse

anyone read news trump expected to ban chinese network equipments. if this happen, can expect china to retaliate

Posted by hollandking > 2019-02-09 21:04 | Report Abuse

think many going to get hurt badly in the market

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2019-02-09 21:24 | Report Abuse

Sure happen. Be prepare now.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 21:36 | Report Abuse

On contrary, I think Malaysia market is the lowest it had been in years. When all the other stock markets are flailing, I think this year Malaysia stock market will do very well overall.

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 21:55 | Report Abuse

Philip,i can't help answering your post.You did trading for 3 yrs only.I have been doing it for 25 yrs.Hahaha.There are many ways to slaughter a cat.
That is why i said it is ok if someone feel ok with 15% pa.

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 21:58 | Report Abuse

By the way,the year after the asian financial crisis in 1997 was my best year ever.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-02-09 22:01 | Report Abuse

15% per annum is for those managing tens of billions

For example John neff is regarded as one of the most successful investors and his average return 15% per annum

I can understand the need to be safe as really not easy to juggle tens of billions

But if you only have RM500k, then aiming for 15% by holding dinosaurs is stupid loh

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 22:04 | Report Abuse

this i agree,then the question arise,how many retailer have a million let alone billion..

Icon8888 > Feb 9, 2019 10:01 PM | Report Abuse

15% per annum is for those managing tens of billions

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 22:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 22:57 | Report Abuse

Do you know how to create a portfolio of 5 to 10 stocks, that can grow your portfolio value at 15% per year for a long time?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-09 23:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by cheoky > 2019-02-09 23:13 | Report Abuse

Talk too much no use. I believe write down pros n cons why u buy/sell a stock and review back. You might even come out with your own investment secret which only suitable to yourself and make money happily

Posted by rchi > 2019-02-09 23:28 | Report Abuse

People with substance dare to make stock calls...like icon...otb...myself.Those without tokok all night long like......Even his best friend raider make stk calls n stand by them..go back to ur college n lecture those kids la.Here at i3 we fight real war,not war games.Wakaka.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-09 23:55 | Report Abuse

don't believe a word this raider says......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-10 00:03 | Report Abuse

S=Qr

most of the time, no Q no success.....

Q means the ability to execute, to buy big when the time comes and to put all the eggs in one basket....like KYY and his Carimin......



can you?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-10 00:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-10 00:18 | Report Abuse

Poor rchi

Another who got zapped by raider's HY last CNY.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-10 00:20 | Report Abuse

very true loh...!!

3iii has no balls loh...!!

Posted by rchi > Feb 9, 2019 11:28 PM | Report Abuse

People with substance dare to make stock calls...like icon...otb...myself.Those without tokok all night long like......Even his best friend raider make stk calls n stand by them..go back to ur college n lecture those kids la.Here at i3 we fight real war,not war games.Wakaka.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-10 00:21 | Report Abuse

https://www.mymoneyblog.com/images/0708/risktime2.gif

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-10 00:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-10 00:45 | Report Abuse

Brownian movements like Insas no use one...U buy more, it drops down, u sell, it goes higher......

Posted by BenBlurBlur > 2019-02-10 08:36 | Report Abuse

(S = Qr) Philip 

How did you spot QL in the first place and what about it then that made you invest in it? Due to insider information, is it? Thank you