i think vincent and the rest of us who are long enough with this counter already getting used to this company boss style are, push up to trap the small fish. I believe by viewing production report used to release at this week, the figures most certainly not very good. im guessing btw.
It has been flush down for more than 50% from its peak, yet the owner still like rubbish appear with no whatsoever supporting to the price. Better don't chase at such negative momentum, be caution
Patient mates investment in bursa doesn't guarantees for everything... Play safe put in fd pidm will assure insurance slow n steady . Trading for for fast money definitely there is a risk. Need to have unlimited bullet like Warren buffet then only u can sure win .
Funny enough this bahvest price can be, if we check it's NTA is 0.49+-, yet it's fundamental can't reflect on its price.... I really wonder why consolidated for so long and how's so
@setia2u, normally whenever the company delay its announcement, is never been a good thing. Usually bahvest release on 19th each month, however is has been delayed so long i doubt call buy is really a wise choice.
Aug. 6.406 kg Sept 23.69 kg Oct. 12.96 kg Nov. 21.58 kg Dec. 31.52 kg
31.52 kg of gold translate to 1013.3 troy ounce and @USD1,280 per ounce at exchange rate 4.1, the value of sale would be RM5.318 mil per month. The monthly mine operating cost is about RM2.5 mil to RM3 mil per last qtr report..
The company’s gold production has started since August 2018. Since then the company has managed to dig up some 95.9kg worth of gold. In 3Q19 the total gold produce from its Tawau mine amounts to 65.8kg or 2,321 ounce. At an average price of USD1,250 per ounce and average forex of USD1 = RM4.17, the company’s gold value mined for the quarter is around RM12.1mil. Assuming they decide to sell all of the gold mined in 3Q, the company’s revenue from mining should be around the RM12.1 mil (please take note that they actually still have 23.7kg of gold from 2Q19 mining which is in inventories. But here we are trying to calculate the recurring revenue that the company can generate. Revenue would actually be lower if the company decides to keep some of the gold produce in 3Q19 as inventories as well which also means lower profit). Minus the direct mining cost of around RM4.4mil, finance cost of RM600k and admin cost of around RM1.2mil (all taken from 2Q19 report), total cost for the mining business per quarter is estimated at RM6.2mil (it should actually be higher given that the operation for 3Q19 is 3 months vs 2Q19 of only 2 months). This would bring a maximum profit from mining amounting to around RM6mil per quarter. Given that the aquaculture business managed only to record a minuscule profit of RM200k in 2Q19, we can assume that the total max profit for Bahvest should be around RM6-7mil/quarter. Annualize this would mean that the company has the potential to deliver a recurring profit of RM28mil per year. At the current share price, the company is already being valued at 19x forward PE which is high given the uncertainties of the gold price.
The increase of gold price from below USD1200 dollar to now USD1300 is mainly due to the tariff war between US and China as most investors rush to buy heaven assets like gold (US imposed a further tariff on USD200bil worth of Chinese products back in mid September 2018). There will be a meeting between US and China schedule on the 30th and 31st of January. Gold price will most probably go down back to below USD1200 if the 2 countries managed to agree on some kind of a deal (even a small one will help). This would affect Bahvest profit outlook in the future.
If you are looking to diversify your portfolio outside of Bahvest Resources (due to its relatively high valuation) I would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.9x PE (based on target FY18 profit of RM145mil. 9m profit is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.7x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17.
FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of the new Myvi and the newly launched SUV Aruz and also the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. The recent announcement of closure and potential disposal of the loss-making alloy wheel manufacturing business alone is expected to boost the company’s profit by an additional RM10mil to RM20mil. I am projecting a profit to shareholder of RM170 mil for FY19 which at the current price values MBMR at only 5.9x PE.
Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions. There are 8 analysts in total covering the stock with most of them having a TP of above RM3 (all have a buy rating). The average TP for the 8 analysts is around RM3.50.
Bahvest dont need any calculations or professional analyst coz all dont make much sense for this counter. This counter can fly whenever the owner wants. No need any reasons or calculations. Once owners start to goreng it will fly... as simple as that. And vice versa when the owners want the price to drop, sad to say it will also. As long as U buy low and sell high then U will earn. Just follow the trend of the owners and try to make some money along the way with them. My prediction is it will remain at the 40+- sen range for some time. Nothing exciting will happen. Meanwhile GONG XI FA CAI and i dont think bahvest will have any good news until after Chinese New Year. My prediction is still May :)
@commonsense, thanks pal !! thanks for all the analyse !! If we have to wait until May or longer to harvest this counter, better consider other counter sajalah, how much can bahvest shot to 70c?90c? The earning of this waiting is not worth compare to the return.
If wasn't i got trapped by so far, i rather choose to run.
This counter is getting exciting. Its like a boiling volcano ever ready to explode. No matter how hard owners try to stop it buy selling cheap, soon it will explode. Gold price now USD 1320 !!! Highest in the past 8 months & bahvest mining latest result highest ever at 31 kgs. Bahvest counter reached RM1.40 in the past when gold price was lower and mining result was also lower. At the current moment 43 sens looks like a dam good bargain. I believe before May i will be higher than previous high of 70 sens. Maybe if gold price continues to climb to usd 1400 and mining results can reach 40 kgs per month. I think we can target RM1. And not forgetting Bahvest super power... onwers skill to GORENG !!!
In less than 1 month, we will see the best ever quarter report from bahvest. Surely positive (thats something unusual from Bahvest) unless they decide to keep all the gold as reserve and not sell any. At least a couple of millions profit. Together with another monthly announcement of production above 31kgs and world gold price at another new high above USD 1320, bahvest easily 50 sen ++. My prediction is it will explode end of May once result is out but will keep on going up steadily. Cheers people & Happy Trading :)
I suggest anyone that earned better take profit, usually one day show. One big up then the next trading day sell down hard hard, just check it's past record charts you'll know
But i really hope will continue breakout 0.5 la of coz, just that those contra player better careful.
Bahvest 51 sen with Free Warrants of 29 sen makes bahvest now at RM1.31 :) If U have bought Bahvest at 32 sens and warrants at 17 sen, its time to collect your Chinese New Year ANGPOW today. Sell a bit and dont be greedy !!! Buy back once the T3s sell after CNY. Cheers people & Gong Xi Fa Cai !!!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
hero666
689 posts
Posted by hero666 > 2019-01-17 16:09 | Report Abuse
i think vincent and the rest of us who are long enough with this counter already getting used to this company boss style are, push up to trap the small fish. I believe by viewing production report used to release at this week, the figures most certainly not very good. im guessing btw.
It has been flush down for more than 50% from its peak, yet the owner still like rubbish appear with no whatsoever supporting to the price. Better don't chase at such negative momentum, be caution