Stock is temporarily high because the peak production season has just over. We are now entering low season in Q1 2024. Buyer will aware of this and whoever buy first bulk volume would be able to get the best price. The 2nd buyer will have to pay more.
Sumatra and Southern Kalimantan received a lot less rainfall this year, 200ml less than before, correct me if I'm wrong. The effect will reveal in less than 6 months time.
So adversed weather coupled with low production season plus peak consumption season in China (CNY), muslim countries, the price will quickly u-turn. That's why the CPO remains strong at above 3,700 / MT.
Looking at long-term irreversible factors, I think CPO price cycle and range has already entered a new normal. So does other agricultural commodities, including eggs, poultry and so on.
There is no right or wrong decision to buy or sell at specific price. It all depends on how much you know about the stock you are buying / selling and how much you know about the stock that you are switching to. It is a matter of INFORMATION and INSIGHT. You can't buy or sell something just because someone told you to. If you have both information and insight, I don't think you need anyone's recommendation.
Once you are able to do that, you don't really mind to be alone, without any follower, without any echo, without anyone's approval, without the need to prove yourself (because you are your own boss, your money your say). You just need to make sure you are responsible to yourself in everything to you do when boils down to the decision of buying or selling a thing. Whenever I buy or sell, I don't give a damn care to what other people say inside or outside the forum. I only refer to MY homework.
Conclusion: Don't trust anyone to buy or sell at specific price (you can't even know whether they are actually buying or selling), do your homework and set the target buying/selling price yourself. This should be the way, safe one. Only buy the one you know, what you don't know, it doesn't belong to you no matter how good it is.
It was artificially pushed up after 17.24. The buyer and seller are the same person at price beyond 17.24. Too fake. I hope the price to go to 20 too. But this kind of price manipulation is very unhealthy.
Next time I will share in more details why I know the price could be "fake" and why you should not just see the closing price. However I think that my statement has already spurred your curiosity and trigger you to think "why" yourself and get some ideas, which I have no time to explain in length here. That curiosity and eagerness to know are more meaningful and helpful, I hope.
High gearing fast growing tech stock may get traction after interest rate cut. But interest rate cut could be also the signal of economy starts to get into trouble. In the end it goes back to the fundamentals whether or not US and advanced market people have excess money for durable tech products.
@KClow, don't bother if it is dumb. Why bother? 😁 If you think it is dumb there are two possibilities: Really it is dumb or you are too dumb to understand, either one. Why you CANNOT WAIT for the price to go up? You cannot bear the interest rate kah? Or you think it is too risky for yourself to hold for another 6 months? Nothing else than NIAT JAHAT. 🤣
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Sardin
824 posts
Posted by Sardin > 2023-12-07 16:37 | Report Abuse
I think current price 16.50 is still attractive with all the calculated risks. So I added some.