Posted by gemfinder > 2020-02-12 21:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by $$$ ^v^ GOODLUCK ^v^ $$$ > 2020-02-13 01:23 | Report Abuse

can reach rm 2.00 soon

Posted by keonkx123 > 2020-02-13 01:35 | Report Abuse

All the financial ratios are fine for this counter, but i think its poor management wont be able to make this counter rebound... luckily i cut loss at 2.47

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-13 09:18 | Report Abuse

thought it is supposed to be end of the world ? and that it will drop to RM2.20 ?

where are all the panicking sochais ?

Posted by 荷兰客栈 > 2020-02-13 12:08 | Report Abuse

我认为，这股志在股息是错不了的，短期之内股价大幅升值的机率不高。买入它得到的是长期确定性的收益，失去的是机会成本，究竟是不是值得投资则是见人见智了。

Posted by Kyou > 2020-02-13 13:16 | Report Abuse

如果2年内能升个60%就很不错了。但愿如此而已。

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-13 13:23 | Report Abuse

I sold a long time ago at RM1.65.

Once i did my Owners Earnings analysis for it, it became obvious for me. I also never really liked the governance of that company.

But i don't think i could have predicted the Airbus thing, im fairly certain they are not Buffet level clean from the rolls royce thing and information from the inside, but this well, interesting.

Investing in Airasia now, is like venture capitalism for me. You're investing in the people and the future business models working out.

Not smart enough for that.

====
Posted by Outliar > Feb 12, 2020 7:03 PM | Report Abuse

Choivo, what are you doing with your airasia?

Posted by 荷兰客栈 > 2020-02-13 15:41 | Report Abuse

当BNM表明还有降息空间之际，大家都纷纷避开银行股或减持，ABMB价格能够徘徊在2.4的扶持水平算是不错了。 话说，我也住在ABMB套房里，想卖又不甘心，唯有放任不管了。

Posted by stock_investor > 2020-02-13 18:54 | Report Abuse

Abmb i stay in jail edi. Go holland edi. Take dividend lor while wait rebound and sell. Nt dare to add more to leverage down. Trending always follow market sentiment.

Posted by Unkerpanjang > 2020-02-13 20:39 | Report Abuse

Abmb has become value trap. Money stuck yet unsure future dividend yield%. How much more can retail investor afford to avg down? Another Mbsb...

Posted by keonkx123 > 2020-02-13 22:20 | Report Abuse

荷兰客栈 你知道其他银行股在大跌后都有小幅度回温 可是这个股从2.6跌到现在的2.4 完全没回温的现象 你说扶持我也醉了 再说股息 公司可以在每个quarter调整股息你应该知道吧？再说如果经济不转好 勉强派高股息只会让公司少了更多资金去发展 唉 在这里呆着只会流失机会成本 不如去其他地方看看

Posted by 荷兰客栈 > 2020-02-13 23:10 | Report Abuse

Keonkx123，你好，Abmb最近的反弹力度欠佳，这是因为减息对它的冲击最大，我国经济成长放缓的当儿，想必外资卖它绝不手软。毕竟，其它市场有比它更好的选择，因此，现在还不是向下摊平(cost avg down) 的好时机。除非股价随着利好消息出现可持续性的反弹才可加码，不然还是看看就好。毕竟斋看就没伤害，哈哈。

而我认为这价格有较强扶持力度是因为它有股息政策，假设ABMB的每季度盈利因减息下滑到每股7分，4个季度的eps也有28分。它有40-60%的派息政策，参考过去数年的派息率，若它持续每年50%的派息率，那净股息也有14分或相当于5.8%的DY，算是银行股中除了Maybank外最高的一家了。这或多或少也能吸引保守型或以股息为主的投资者投资，再加上EPF的增持，相信它的下跌空间也不大了。

Posted by keonkx123 > 2020-02-13 23:37 | Report Abuse

荷兰客栈 不错的分析 我个人觉得股息/派息率确实应该纳入选股票的考量中 可是我更看重成长和盈利（growth and profitability) 如果单纯以股息作为考量 你的每股股息还是会因为下跌的股价而缩水的

不过我也明白 对那些之前没卖的 现在舍不得卖 也只能看看 专注在生活的其他事吧

Posted by 荷兰客栈 > 2020-02-14 08:48 | Report Abuse

价值与股息投资法的弊端就是需要较长的时间才能看到成果，在国家经济放缓、政局不稳定与国际贸易动荡之际，它注定是输家。公司的未来发展也缺乏动力与成长就是原罪。

反之科技、金融科技、大数据都不乏创新，带给了投资者无限的遐想，成长憧憬推动股价屡破新高，本益比推到了本梦比的高度。这是现在的趋势，跟着趋势走才是王道，只要懂得在音乐停止前离场，那就袋袋平安了。

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-14 09:51 | Report Abuse

where are those sochais that say this is the end of the world ?

Posted by stock_investor > 2020-02-14 10:06 | Report Abuse

Abmb i miss to account bnm effect to cut rates continuously despite overall stable market around the world. I expect abmb to rebound with profit in next two qr. Regarding the share price, i let market decide but probably increase at most 15%. I would sell half to limit losses.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-14 10:51 | Report Abuse

most people turn negative when price drops and positive when price up

at low and safe level of 2.40, they will say end of world coming and want to jump down from KLCC

when one day goes up to 4.20, they will come out and say it has very bright prospects and it is time to sailang

I have seen it happens so many times

Posted by KClohloh > 2020-02-14 11:40 | Report Abuse

Icon888, dont forget to take medicine...collect at Tanjung Rambutan

Posted by nobirdie > 2020-02-14 13:17 | Report Abuse

im also waiting for it to go up

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-02-14 13:21 | Report Abuse

Im waiting it down below rm2

Posted by meiling0809 > 2020-02-14 14:10 | Report Abuse

bank sector at downtrend side
I believe ABMB is a good stock
but is still not a good timing to go in now
let it drops until RM2.20 then look into it

Posted by Unkerpanjang > 2020-02-14 19:34 | Report Abuse

Klse already in correction phase. Gonna get into depression with virus, trade war n political infighting. Shares will continue to bleed, stay out. Just put money in kwsp n sleep soundly.

Posted by keonkx123 > 2020-02-15 14:50 | Report Abuse

New low soon.

Icon888 The reason i dislike this counter is not becoz of its dropping share price, but its management issue. Buying a stock of a company is like being a partner to a company, and no one would like a poorly managed company.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-16 06:53 | Report Abuse

What management issue ?

Posted by shareinvestor88 > 2020-02-16 09:47 | Report Abuse

Sell tp 1

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-16 10:00 | Report Abuse

Any company that has poor investment banking team has a management issue. Being the smallest of the major lenders where the best companies
always go with Maybank, public, Hong Leong and CIMB, you get the more unstable companies to lend to. Higher profits no doubt, but much higher risk. If there is one coachroach, u can be sure there is more.

>>>>>>>>>

London Biscuits had in June 2016 announced the establishment of its unrated medium term notes (MTN) programme of RM100 million.

The appointed principal adviser for this programme is none other than
Alliancee Investment Bank Bhd, the investment banking arm of locally listed Alliance Bank.

To recap, the proceeds raised from London Biscuits’ MTN programme were to be utilised for refinancing existing bank borrowings and to finance capital expenditure and working capital requirements, including the costs of maintaining existing plant and machinery and other general corporate purposes.

The MTN has a maturity period of three to seven years from the first issue date of July 26, 2016.

London Biscuits, after servicing interest payments in the first two years, should have started making principal repayment from the third year onwards, which is this year.

But given the current parlous state of the confectionary maker, it is not likely to meet its obligation under the MTN programme.

And that, naturally, has turned the spotlight on Alliance Bank, whose net credit cost increased quarter on quarter by 3.6 basis points (bps) to 13.1 bps in 1QFY2020.

Posted by yfchong > 2020-02-16 11:56 | Report Abuse

Can try oredi.... TA support level....?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-16 11:58 | Report Abuse

Lehman Brothers, Bear Sterns had wonderful investment banking teams.

I don't think having a good IB team is essential, thought it can often be more quite profitable.

HL and PBBANK don't have that good a IB team either.


====
Philip (Can I advise you?) Any company that has poor investment banking team has a management issue. Being the smallest of the major lenders where the best companies
always go with Maybank, public, Hong Leong and CIMB, you get the more unstable companies to lend to. Higher profits no doubt, but much higher risk. If there is one coachroach, u can be sure there is more.

Posted by TA_trader > 2020-02-16 15:49 | Report Abuse

Choivo,

Agree. But alliance bank IS WITH AN INVESTMENT BANK/ARM.

A loss making and pathetic one. Hence dragging on the group's already pathetic profit and management.

Btw HLB and PBB has a good IB team, a much better one that what alliance have.

That is why they are looking to sell a loss making unit, which nbdy wants.

Posted by keonkx123 > 2020-02-16 15:54 | Report Abuse

TA_trader finally you are back! I have been waiting for your insider news on Alliance Bank eg. management issue some sort

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-16 22:53 | Report Abuse

Really? An investment banking team that caused massive losses and caused a bankruptcy you consider wonderful? Are you arguing for the sake of arguing? If those are wonderful investment Banking team, what do you consider bad ones?

Anyway.... Here is a simple qualitative analysis ( or how I decided to buy public Bank bank in the day). Why don't I give you the valuation criteria and you provide the details, so you can see how I look at good and bad management.

1. Quality of loans. The best safest loans are usually for small items which everyone can pay for ( hire purchase is the best, especially rich people buying BMW). Small amounts, when you squeeze individuals usually will pay on aggregate. Easier collection, and impairments are small. Riskiest loans are for business startups and smes to run their businesses. They charge higher fees, but come with higher risk of impairments. So now compare between hlb and alliance. Go to notes,
A15B for alliance, A12a for hlb. Which is better? Which has the safer loan risk portfolio?

1A. In a way judging the quality of loans, we look at impairments of loans. Banks efficiency and how stringent their control mechanisms are will define overall returns long term. I'll help you out here. One bank has a gross impairment/% of gross loans of 0.8%. the other has double the impaired rate of 1.7%. guess which is which?


2. Quality of deposits. You cannot always rely on bank negara loans to find your banking loans. The best deposits are those with fixed deposit and savings accounts. Banks need to maintain a good ratio deposits/ loans to avoid a bank run. For me I look at savings deposit+fixed deposit/ total deposit % to understand how much individuals are saving and storing their cash into the bank. Who has 66% of the best form of high quality deposits ( low low interest) that can be loaned out to cover high interest loans?

This is where you start analysing the management criteria of a good/bad bank and start smelling out cockroaches.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 16, 2020 11:58 AM | Report Abuse

Lehman Brothers, Bear Sterns had wonderful investment banking teams.

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-16 23:08 | Report Abuse

3. This is the kicker, and the part I worry about the most ( and why I sold public Bank for PCHEM). What is the future long term prospects for Banks? The biggest risk here is obviously the business loans and debt due to hosting developers, SMES and small businesses which are the biggest bombs that will affect impairment levels. As more and more property is being built and less and less individuals can afford to buy it, the prudent bank that has low exposure to risky business & corporate banking will have more stability in the years to come.

Therefore we qualify banks that have a bigger consumer banking to business banking ratio. If individuals go bankrupt, you can still repossess the car and house. If a sme goes bankrupt, the impairment will be hard and painful. Hlb A29, page A31 of abmb notes later quarterly report. Which has the bigger exposure and higher chance of impairments and bombs?

Posted by keonkx123 > 2020-02-17 00:41 | Report Abuse

Hi Philips, can you analyse and compare between Alliance bank and Ambank? In a layman term please, as i am not from financial background

Posted by TA_trader > 2020-02-17 02:40 | Report Abuse

Tuan2 dan puan2,

Tak payah la bising2. Tengok je la annual report dia.

1.)Why do they want to sell the investment arm? 2.) Who says they are relying on their stable consumer business/deposits? Their deposit usually 3 months, 6 months..if any bad news also run la. Besides alot of their so called "floating stable" deposits are in their smart home loan account, which can be withdrawn any time.

Segment Results/profit
Investment Banking Consumer Biz Banking
2019 (33,377,000) 80,543,000 409,365,000
2018 (837,000) 142,387,000 357,110,000
2017 (5,597,000) 161,166,000 350,381,000
2016 (10,988,000) 149,886,000 333,531,000
2015 (13,911,000) 161,879,000 342,906,000
2014 (737,000) 224,369,000 351,530,000


Investment banking result making teruk, consumer pon tak nak layan dah. No choice but to bank on risky SME.

Tell me, who the h*ll wants to buy their investment banking arm?

Posted by TA_trader > 2020-02-17 02:42 | Report Abuse

aih kerja buta for you all only.

Segment Results/profit
Investment Banking
2019 (33,377,000)
2018 (837,000)
2017 (5,597,000)
2016 (10,988,000)
2015 (13,911,000)
2014 (737,000)

Consumer
2019 80,543,000
2018 142,387,000
2017 161,166,000
2016 149,886,000
2015 161,879,000
2014 224,369,000

Biz Banking
2019 409,365,000
2018 357,110,000
2017 350,381,000
2016 333,531,000
2015 342,906,000
2014 351,530,000

Posted by TA_trader > 2020-02-17 03:03 | Report Abuse

net profit CEO and Director's remuneration
2019 537,597 / 14,305
2018 493,228 / 13,272
2017 512,123 / 14,118
2016 522,038 / 13,404
2015 530,780 / 12,076
2014 538,123 / 12,973

in 2018 A.report, 2017 remeuneratin restated/adjusted lower.

Posted by TA_trader > 2020-02-17 03:11 | Report Abuse

The only constant/consistent thing about this stock is the rising trend in payout to top management as well as, senior management.

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-17 07:12 | Report Abuse

I am also not from a financial background. But if an old engineer can learn new things, so can you. If you don't know how to value banks or can't be bothered to read financial reports, it might be wise to avoid investing in banking industry. What do you do for a living? Investing in things that you know well might be the way instead.

>>>>>>

Posted by keonkx123 > Feb 17, 2020 12:41 AM | Report Abuse
Financial
Hi Philips, can you analyse and compare between Alliance bank and Ambank? In a layman term please, as i am not from financial background

Posted by keonkx123 > 2020-02-17 13:56 | Report Abuse

@TA_trader tq for your in-dept analysis

@philip bro i did read annual report, analyst report and news on the stock before i bought it. I am asking for your assistance to analyse to see if there is any other information that can benefit all of us here

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-17 19:42 | Report Abuse

I am still waiting for the end of the world , as promised to me by all the naysayers

Posted by TA_trader > 2020-02-17 21:04 | Report Abuse

Icon, what end of the world are you talk about. I don't remember seeing anybody saying alliance bank will bankrupt.

What we are all saying, is that there are no growth catalyst. What's worse is the steady drag in income.

Posted by GENER > 2020-02-18 00:51 | Report Abuse

接近6%的股息，没得好埋怨的股项了。又不是只有ABMB跌，全马的银行股现在都是下降趋势。要买就现在买了，难道等高峰才买么。 马来西亚银行股是这样玩的。跌4-5%买进一点，升4-5%卖出一点。

Posted by TA_trader > 2020-02-18 09:21 | Report Abuse

you all expect profits to maintain? you all expect dividends to stay constant? First half 2020, net profit already 84 million behind compared to last year. If you expect dividends to maintain, then you are projecting that the following 2 quarters this year to have a profit of 190 million and 154 million each.

Good luck

Posted by TA_trader > 2020-02-18 09:22 | Report Abuse

never had alliance achieved a net profit of RM 190 million in a quarter.

NEVER.

Posted by Unkerpanjang > 2020-02-18 18:37 | Report Abuse

Institutions dump while Retail Investors pick up. Sad loh. That's how wealth is destroyed.
But on the bright side, all ships (no matter how bad), rise with the high tide..... If the climate change doesn't permanently destroy
the tide.

Posted by TA_trader > 2020-02-20 00:38 | Report Abuse

Suddenly all the gung-ho pro -alliance supporters went silent when presented with facts and figures.

Posted by firehawk > 2020-02-20 08:42 | Report Abuse

This is another typical good example of wrong timing call by Sifu!

BNM governor said there is ample room for interest rate cut .... economists anticipate there will be another rate cut around May .....

Sifu and followers ignore all the news facts and take price drop trend as average down opportunities, the rhetoric is, bank stocks are very safe bet, one day will recover .... KLCI also will go to 2000 lah! For long term, KLCI trend is up (KLCI started from 100 only, took 1970 as the base, if i'm not wrong). Inside the KLCI components are 30 blues chips, very safe bet lah .... buy and average down lah .....

I think many holders feel the pain of wrong timing and realized somethings .... but those hypocritical Sifu will ask them to average down, average down and average down ..... bcos Sifu also holds a lot, ask them to support loh :D :D :D

For those take dividend yield as a point, beware, dividend is not a constant, good luck!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-20 08:50 | Report Abuse

Not if you are taking a longer term view

Ultimate Price is backed by price to book ratio and sustainable earning

With that in mind, I am in no lost situation

I said it then, I say it now

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-20 08:52 | Report Abuse

I bought at 260, pocketed 6 Sen dividend

My cost 254

Now 240

Meaning lost 5%

So what ?

(Shrug)

Posted by firehawk > 2020-02-20 08:53 | Report Abuse

Yes, buy the 30 blue chips in KLCI and average down lah .... finally not only no loss but earning!!!