Posted by projecti2016 > 2016-02-22 22:53 | Report Abuse

lloydlim... u sure?

Posted by Jiaming Wu > 2016-02-22 23:10 | Report Abuse

http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/business/cj213

Posted by Jiaming Wu > 2016-02-22 23:38 | Report Abuse

http://www.automachi.com/2016/02/mercedes_benz_all_new_e_class_launch_in_malaysia_q4/

Posted by domperrier > 2016-02-23 08:33 | Report Abuse

Any idea if the stock will selloff @ after a short spurt like it did after blockbuster results at the end of July?

Posted by domperrier > 2016-02-23 09:14 | Report Abuse

Lousy insiders cashing out again...

Posted by lloydlim > 2016-02-23 09:17 | Report Abuse

Need not worry about it, fund manager is buying now!

Posted by speakup > 2016-02-23 09:24 | Report Abuse

insiders sell on good news. amateurs buy on good news.

Posted by Kelvin Teh > 2016-02-23 09:25 | Report Abuse

Today share price of ccb drop again,announced dividen also weak,no must buyer..........,

Posted by speakup > 2016-02-23 09:30 | Report Abuse

RULE #1: buy on rumours, sell on news.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2016-02-23 10:10 | Report Abuse

This is the lunacy of PE10. Everyone knows that the market doesn't yield to anyone just because millions of people use a PE 10 to set TP. A stock like CCB has inconsistent ROE and profit growth, those are the 2 most important things that change PE multiple.

I will offer you a better way to come to your TP. Look across the ROE since 2006. 2% - 19%, a strong volatility across one decade. And think for yourself, does a car distributor has competitive advantage? or does a car manufacturer has an edge over others? Using 10% as cost of capital, by the way CCB has failed to achieve ROE of above 10% for past 2-3 years; you would be conservative to assign a long term 12% ROE; and aggressive to assisng 15% long term ROE.

So CCB has NTA sitting at $2.58. 12% ROE implies a TP of $3.10 (2.58 x 1.2); while 15% implies TP of $3.87 (2.58 x 1.5). And you have not apply margin of safety of 30-50%. Once you have apply your buy price should be at $1.50 - $2.70. This is way more 'accurate' than using PE 10

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-02-23 12:06 | Report Abuse

There are more than hundred of methods of calculating a target price, ask a merchant banker who has experience in assisting clients to do IPO. All prices set are very subjective & prices set can always be justified & supported using all kinds of assumptions.

In setting a price target, some use the most commonly acceptable method, PE, like what I did. Some apply discounted cash flow method. In your case, ROE.

In CCB situation, we can keep on arguing this or that, but the fact were CCB were not doing well 2-3 years back, other than that, things have changed following the launch of new models from AG Daimler. With now ROE of 20% for 2015, what can we expect?

No, all TPs are nothing if Mr Market does not buy the idea. If you think Mr Market has underestimated the value of CCB, then it is chance for you to buy.

If you think Mr Market has done right & you are agreeable to it, then look for other better investment opportunity.

As long as you have your own calculation & judgement based on whatever valid sources, then you are on your way to be successfully in investing.

To me, CCB is having simple business model which I can understand, like Gadang, so I will stick to it until the time MB are no longer selling good.

Posted by KG1967 > 2016-02-23 12:13 | Report Abuse

drop le, it is finish....

Posted by JT Yeo > 2016-02-23 12:48 | Report Abuse

You are right, so everyone needs to start using more tools other than PE to make judgement. The more tools you have the better you can improve your accuracy. You need to understand the true meaning behind PE multiple.

As i said again the only issue with PE multiple is this - Normally when do people start assign an PE and TP? When the EPS or Q result go up obviously. You don't see people apply a PE and TP after profit falls, they just sell it.

So you have a situation where you are applying a PE multiple on an inflated earnings, the end result you get is a TP that is so aggressive and one that leave you no room for error. And again looking across the historical ROE of CCB, average is close to 10-12%, you won't want to think that 20% is a new era, unless you can find an evident that they do something different. I am sure since 2006, Mercedes has introduced a lot of great models, but doesnt make their ROE sustainable at such high level.

Posted by domperrier > 2016-02-23 15:38 | Report Abuse

Despite such a stellar result & a PE of 7, the retailer whom I overheard chasing @ 3.80 losing $$$.

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-02-23 15:52 | Report Abuse

when is the payment date for this pathetic dividend of 5 cents? wanna buy tissue to wipe my bottom with it.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-02-23 16:02 | Report Abuse

Doing business is an Art plus rational acts rather than pure science.

I don't like to set very complicated calculation to arrive my expected PE or TP, because digging too deep or details will lose the initial focus.

I don't agree on your statement on "the more tools we use the more accurate the result can be".

Life is always full of uncertainty, business also. I will not call it accuracy but call it confidence to achieve the desired goal, in this situation, investment goal.

When talk about inflated earnings, it is very arguable, since when we can't predict higher profits based on previous quarters' results? Or we should only project lower profit?

To be strict on it, we will be always wrong when we are estimating future profit.

In Gadang case, I was wrong because I am under-estimating the profit. In CCB case, I am wrong because I am over-estimating the profit. In anyway, I will be always wrong no matter what my estimation.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CCB Price has gone down due to many factors as we can see here:

1. rumour up confirmed news down
2. disappointment of no huge special dividend (I think this is the biggest reason)
3. weak market sentiment

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As reminder, KESM did deliver excellent result in the latest QR & price up nearly to RM6 within 1 day, now only about RM4.65, what a surprise to me.

No matter how simple or complicated on the calculation, know what are you doing & trust your judgement. Market is always unpredictable.

In my opinion, the most important things are the basis of arriving the conclusion, I trusted mine & I still trust. You have yours & I believe it is not wrong of using it, as long as you know it is the most suitable to you.

Never too optimistic, because you may be over confidence;
Never too pessimistic, because you may miss the chance.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-02-23 16:03 | Report Abuse

When Market is unpredictable, we may stand chance to get something out of it. Make use of fears from other people & gain on it.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-02-23 16:11 | Report Abuse

This stock is not suitable for active trader, it will kill you. I like someone said, CCB is an old man stock.

Posted by KG1967 > 2016-02-23 17:02 | Report Abuse

good analyse but today it is totally finish

Posted by KG1967 > 2016-02-23 17:02 | Report Abuse

hopefully tmr will be little back, let's see

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-02-23 17:28 | Report Abuse

wah lau....one day drop $(-0.27 ). See you die or not~???!!!

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-02-23 17:30 | Report Abuse

when is the payment date for this pathetic dividend of 5 cents? wanna buy tissue to wipe my arse with it.

Posted by sks1 > 2016-02-23 17:57 | Report Abuse

Great stock! loaded more today with great confidence, hoping it to be rebound very soon.

Posted by sks1 > 2016-02-23 17:58 | Report Abuse

Superman, i am your fan.. support you :)

Posted by cpng > 2016-02-23 18:13 | Report Abuse

馬賽地廢氣排放 涉造假

（美國‧紐約20日訊）戴姆勒汽車集團（Daimler AG）旗下的馬賽地公司（Mercedes-Benz）被控在美販售的柴油車氮氧化合物超標，且向主管機關隱匿排放造假。涉及14車款這起集體訴訟案由哈根斯柏曼律師事務所（Hagens Berman）向新澤西聯邦法院提出，臚列馬賽地14款車款據稱安裝排放造假裝置。這是福士偉根在廢氣排放測試造假後，傳出的另一家大車廠疑排氣造假事件。（星洲日報)

Posted by cpng > 2016-02-23 18:22 | Report Abuse

The allegation, made in a federal lawsuit filed this week in New Jersey against the German automaker, mirrors similar claims that have beset Volkswagen. It was brought by a Mercedes owner in Illinois, who claims the automaker uses the device in its BlueTec cars to turn off a system meant to reduce nitrogen oxide in its exhaust.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2016-02-23 18:29 | Report Abuse

That is why I use ROE instead of estimating the profit. You can look at all the broker analysts, they have all the information they need and how many of them get their estimation right?

And since you are playing a long term game, it makes even more sense not to estimate profit but rather focus on the competitive advantage of the company. That means asking does CCB have any edge over his competitor? Why does a great competitor like Hapseng, their automotive arm that is also a Mercedes authorised dealership, had a flip flop earnings, sometimes red sometimes black and never seems to grow since 2009, will CCB do better than them etc..

I agree in keeping things simple, but that is not a privilege that I can afford to have, Im not sure about you. Investing is a skill. Just like anything from chess, golf to gymnastic and swimming. The way Michael Phelps swim like a dolphin; that's because he spend 10-15 hours in the pool everyday for 10-15 years. The way grandmaster can make a move in split second on the chess board, that is because they have been doing the drill everyday for 10 years; those gymnast, they trained until they body are so sore everyday to make it look so easy in the olympic, you get my point.

If you decide to keep it simple as in using purely PE, then you better be mindful and have a lot alot of margin of safety in your purchase price. Keep things simple is the best advice, but it can become an illusion to yourself too. Just be careful of that.

Posted by michaelwong > 2016-02-23 19:53 | Report Abuse

Always the case , when slight bad news came out , investors tend to react negatively and over exaggerated . If tomorrow if it happens to slip further , a chance to collect and make some profits through its tecnical rebound .

Posted by soojinhou > 2016-02-23 20:01 | Report Abuse

JT Yeo, actually, all else equal, I prefer to use PE over ROE. In my opinion, it is easier to assume that the company can maintain the profit, than to assume that the company can continue to be as efficient in utilising equity as it did in the past. But of course I don't depend on PE alone to make my investment decision, and I do take ROE into consideration. What I'm trying to say is, if I have only 1 tool to use to make decision, it is PE rather than ROE. Maintaining the profit is just doing more or less the same as it did last quarter, maintaining same efficiency means figuring out what to do with new equity. The former is an easier assumption, in my opinion.

Posted by sid_slash > 2016-02-23 20:16 | Report Abuse

Based TA it needs to rebound tomorrow otherwise it's goinna meltdown technically.

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-02-23 20:33 | Report Abuse

in terms of COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE - CCB is actually a shareholder of Merz Benz. Look at the cash flow statement properly, the net cash inflows from operations is derived by inflating the Accounts Payable. A component of the AP is the interest free loan by Merz Benz. Hap Seng got none of this...Also - CCB is the preferred dealer for Merz Benz - whenever HapSeng runs short of stock, they will take it from CCB. Got it?

Also, from 2007 until 2014, the reason CCB is doing poorly is mainly due to the poor design.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2016-02-23 20:34 | Report Abuse

Yea i get what you mean, it's just that when people assign PE to a TP, they normally do that when EPS is at the peak, without taking into account the historical EPS and reversion to mean, thinking that this time it is different etc. Of course, if people think like me, no one would buy Amazon, Facebook etc lol, but yea, it is all about being conservative.

Posted by Asia88 > 2016-02-23 20:50 | Report Abuse

Don't worry about the drop in price. This trend happened few quarters ago. Good result announced, share price drop. It will bounce back one day.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-02-23 22:53 | Report Abuse

JT Yeo, I start to doubt if you have read properly on my articles when you said the following:

"they normally do that when EPS is at the peak, without taking into account the historical EPS and reversion to mean"

I strongly suggest you to take a look at table 1 & 3 of my first article on CCB where more analysis were in fact done, of which include ROE that you have emphasized.

When we write an article, it is impossible to discuss every ratio analysis in one go, no one will read on it. It will be too technical. Ultimately, we need to select those commonly acceptable to the readers. If anyone has missed other section, that's bad.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You have implied that some may have thought that this time is different or INI KALILAH.

In CCB, nothing is special or different, because they have already in business for decades.

We all have to read the market's behaviors in the past in relation to the past years figures on a particular stock. The business model is so predictable that everyone know how automotive industries work.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One point I do agree with you, to me, I will hardly make up my mind to invest in Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-02-23 22:58 | Report Abuse

I will never invest in a stock purely based purely on PE, that's suicide act. (Property stocks are better choice in terms of PE)

All must take into accounts before making any investing decision.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-02-23 23:03 | Report Abuse

I am not trying to find excuses or reasoning my estimation, as whether right or wrong, no one is knowing who am I in real life, but I find it is worth to take time to reply to you, Yeo.

It's good discussion.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-02-23 23:11 | Report Abuse

No matter how good we calculate, collective actions by other investors are more important, great result but price drop.

Business sense in investing are the decisive factor while ratios or figures analysis are merely tools or instruments to assist in making investing decision.

Posted by domperrier > 2016-02-24 08:33 | Report Abuse

My point is that a grossly undervalued stock can still be sold off & incur losses for those late to the party because of heavy insider/informed trading & hordes of retailers coming in due to rumours.

Posted by domperrier > 2016-02-24 08:38 | Report Abuse

I myself started buying in July '13 @ 2.62, when results were still declining,EPF was selling and only stopped buying in Feb '15, when the lowest price I got was 1.90,just as first uptick in quarterly results showed up.

Just as the overall market peaked in late Apr '15, I remember that 18,000 shares were done @ 2.05 on the day of the AGM on 23rd April.

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-02-24 09:42 | Report Abuse

JTYeo has a point - in that if you use the latest EPS which already hit all years high - then, the PE is likely to be inflated leaving little headroom for errors.
But then, what if the high EPS becomes a new norm? then, P/E 7 at RM3.45 (my only entry price) is considered undervalued.
I myself has no authority to dictate that the current EPS (for 2015) will be the same for 2016, but some dudes (Group CEO: Datuk Wong Kin Foo) at CCB think so.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/02/24/cycle-carriage-expects-a-good-year-despite-headwinds/

Please refer to the article below:
Cycle & Carriage expects a good year on Mercedes sales despite headwinds

GEORGE TOWN: Cycle & Carriage Bintang Bhd (CCBB) expects a good year ahead, despite the challenging economic environment.

Group chief executive officer Datuk Wong Kin Foo said there would be strong headwinds ahead, but the group had put in place new products and fresh business strategies to move forward.

“One of the new products coming in this year is the new E-Class, which will drive sales forward.

“Last year, Cycle & Carriage sold 11,000 units of Mercedes-Benz,” he said.

Wong spoke at the launch of the Cycle & Carriage newly upgraded showroom in George Town.

Cycle & Carriage also celebrated 130 years of the Mercedes-Benz brand innovation.

Wong said by mid-2016, CCBB would have its 12th Autohaus in the country at Cheras to serve the needs of customers in the southern part of Klang Valley.

“To ensure that all our customers continue to be treated equally, Cycle & Carriage will invest another RM30mil to upgrade six showrooms.

“We are committed to these investments to keep up with competitions and to ensure our customers are taken care of in the best possible manner,” Wong added.

Wong said CCBB spent RM4mil to renovate the showroom in George Town.

“The upgrading of this Autohaus took time because it is part of a heritage building protected by Unesco.

“We are unable to touch the facade too much and structurally have to maintain everything.

“The upgraded showroom has 33,489 sq ft of floor space to feature seven display vehicles, accommodate an upgraded customer lounge, and 14 mechanical work bays,” he said.

According to Wong, a total of RM20mil has been invested, which includes the latest RM4mil spent on the upgrading of the present showroom in George Town.

Posted by sid_slash > 2016-02-24 19:47 | Report Abuse

Technically a very strong closing by CCB today. It has weed out the sellers who r well absorbed. Need to go above rm3.50 to maintain long uptrend line. The market is bad so hope for the best now.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-02-25 15:58 | Report Abuse

Aiya, no matter how good is the calculation & the profit result, emotion is No.1.

When market sentiment is good, all stocks up
When market sentiment is bad, all stocks down.

Talk talk talk also no use. Better back to school do teaching.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-02-25 15:58 | Report Abuse

now price down already, why not yet see ah plane one?

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-02-25 16:00 | Report Abuse

Everyone buy because others buy
Everyone sell because others sell
Simple as that. Why make it so complicated?

Posted by gwansoo > 2016-02-25 16:18 | Report Abuse

moneySIFU... That approach makes you the same as others. Hahaha

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-02-25 16:29 | Report Abuse

Yalo, I always lose money before came here, now start to learn from all sifus here & managed to earn some pocket money.

Superman 99 sifu very geng & calm.

Posted by SUPERSUN > 2016-02-26 04:26 | Report Abuse

各大车商都赶在2015年推出疯狂年终大促销，所以去年12月创下的汽车销量十分惊人！经历了一连串的疯狂促销后，我国汽车总销量在1月份下跌了36%左右，几乎所有品牌都呈现下跌的趋势，仅有Subaru和Mercedes-Benz两大主要品牌逆境增长！

http://cforum.cari.com.my/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3818600&extra=page%3D1

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-26 07:10 | Report Abuse

Die loh, ccb sales...

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-02-26 11:30 | Report Abuse

good...it does not drop like last time - when good quarterly results release - it drops to RM3....now, it is well supported at RM3.30

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-02-26 15:04 | Report Abuse

Wow, theedge weekly said reliable source informed 900 units sold, now actual figure is 1,027 units.

Thanks, SUPERSUN.