Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-11 09:37 | Report Abuse

Another 10% shoot down for CD... duno how many 10% CD can go

Posted by bj469 > 2017-08-11 09:42 | Report Abuse

suregain, what is the poor result you are referring to?

Posted by CharmingMalaysian > 2017-08-11 09:43 | Report Abuse

if poor result have to sell underwear then

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-11 09:43 | Report Abuse

Dumb dumb hold for those keeping.......happy weekend

Posted by CharmingMalaysian > 2017-08-11 09:43 | Report Abuse

If good result, I give Suregain my underwear

Posted by suregain > 2017-08-11 09:44 | Report Abuse

petron corp oredi anounced so so result, how to expect good result from petronm? sell your underwear la.. n show ur ku ku jiao

Posted by CharmingMalaysian > 2017-08-11 09:47 | Report Abuse

If so confident bad result, then no need worry, you wont get my stinky underwear

Posted by stocknanmy > 2017-08-11 09:47 | Report Abuse

Tak ape, kita tetap tunggu.

Wang kita banyak lagi untuk kutipan selanjutnya.

Posted by sheldon > 2017-08-11 09:49 | Report Abuse

Anybody's got the balls for the warrant? Now with shares traded at 8.55, it's trading at 25.5 sen with a strike at 8.50 & expiry at 22 Feb 2018.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-11 09:52 | Report Abuse

David's writeup for recap on WORST CASE SCENARIO:

To be conservative, let start with worst case scenario for Petronm profit estimation. First we start with inventory/stock loss calculation

1. Worse case inventory/stock loss (Management stated in AGM they keeps 18-21 days stock) – I assume 22 days

Stock loss = 48k barrels x 22 (48.2 – 52.95)

= USD -5.016mil

= RM-21.57mil

2) Lower Refinery margin (lower down from USD5.3 to USD5.0) in a quarter (based on its regular throughput per day of 48k). Management also told us in AGM that its refinery currently running at around 60%.

= 4.368mil barrels X USD5.0 (estimated profit margin per barrel)

= USD 21.84mil

= RM 93.91mil

Throughput data from 2016 AR as shown in figure below (91 day in Q2 X 48k = 4.368 mil barrels)

3) Lower retails segment contribution (even though Ramadan month was in June and Q2 is 91 days as compared to 90 days of Q1), but let’s assume it performs 5% lower than Q1’17

= 100 mil (part 1 article assume 105 mil)

Net Gross Profit = -21.57mil + 93.91 + 100

= 172.34mil (part 1 article estimate 186.9mil)

4) Assuming higher operating cost and same finance cost of 5% more than Q1’17 (from Q1 report), Q2 operation cost and finance cost is = 36.33 mil

Net Profit = (172.34-36.33) mil = RM136.01 mil.

(Actually it should has lower finance cost in Q2 as last quarter it paid up 56 mil of loan that lead to lower interest cost)

Assume the same tax rate of 26.9% as per last quarter,

New possible lower or worse case Net Profit = RM136.01mil deduct 26.9% tax

= RM99.42 mil

RM99.42 mil --> EPS of 36.83 sen.

From this media release, Petron group profit is P2.6 billion and this translate to RM221 millions. From Q1 data, Petronm contributed about 30% of the overall net income. From estimated RM99.42 mil net profit, its contribution will rise to about 45% (99.42/221 x 100). This is the worse case scenario profit that I can think off for Petronm. The possible reasons higher contributions of Petronm on the overall Petron Corp profit are as below:

1. 45-days shut down of refinery

2. High inventory loss in Petron Corp (Philippine) as it refinery shutdown for 45 days (its Bataan refinery rated capacity is 180kbpd which should keep higher number of stock)

3. Overhead cost in refinery factory (due to it still needs to pay salary, electricity bill etc during the shut down)

4. Sub-contractors cost for the maintenance work

Posted by GICSpore > 2017-08-11 09:56 | Report Abuse

We are totally convinced of the above analysis.

Very well thought through on good grounds.

Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-11 10:36 | Report Abuse

Beware of PDt dump it and banker sold cw to all of retailer

Posted by brightsmart > 2017-08-11 10:43 | Report Abuse

in my opinion, up and down in Hengyuan and Petron is a great lesson to all.

Posted by wops > 2017-08-11 11:02 | Report Abuse

drop for few days ady

Posted by suregain > 2017-08-11 11:05 | Report Abuse

but i wil buy back after poor result anouncement n huge big drop... hahahaha

Posted by CharmingMalaysian > 2017-08-11 11:08 | Report Abuse

Unfortunately even after bad results, no one will sell to you...hahaha

Posted by CharmingMalaysian > 2017-08-11 11:13 | Report Abuse

Maybe after result I will sell at 50% premium of the current price, you can buy all...hahaha

Posted by shidayea > 2017-08-11 11:14 | Report Abuse

Die..

Posted by charles_cty > 2017-08-11 11:15 | Report Abuse

NKorea yet to bomb US.....but we already died here....

Posted by Lee Chee Hoe > 2017-08-11 11:39 | Report Abuse

buy at weaknesses. should be going up soon

Posted by suregain > 2017-08-11 11:50 | Report Abuse

off course no one want your stinky got hole underwear la.. hahahaha

Posted by hng33 > 2017-08-11 11:54 | Report Abuse

Aside Hengyuan, also grab some stake in Petron at 8.48

Posted by Bizfuneng > 2017-08-11 11:59 | Report Abuse

Expecting further fall in DJ, Nasdaz tonite. More cheap Merdeka Sales tmr!!!

Posted by hng33 > 2017-08-11 12:02 | Report Abuse

further downside risk is limited

Posted by hng33 > 2017-08-11 12:04 | Report Abuse

Dow index may affect market sentiment temporary, but the real impact on Petron earning is crude oil feed stock cost and refinery margin.

Posted by GICSpore > 2017-08-11 12:30 | Report Abuse

Adding and adding

Posted by CharmingMalaysian > 2017-08-11 12:30 | Report Abuse

too bad, if you lose the bet, you have to take it gracefully

Posted by godofgamble > 2017-08-11 12:34 | Report Abuse

all in

Posted by RedGreen > 2017-08-11 12:44 | Report Abuse

I am adding, too cheap

Posted by hng33 > 2017-08-11 12:46 | Report Abuse

Although market sentiment is weak, affecting petron share price under correction. but, it also give opportunity for late comer that miss previous rally to have chance to join at current relatively bargain entry level now.

The most important factors influencing refinery profitability are include refined product cracks, the costs of other feedstocks and blendstocks, and the sweet-sour crude oil spreads, the Gasoline and diesel cracks.

Currently, Petron feed-stock cost, crude oil, also under correction, render support for Petron profit margin.

Posted by Toto2009 > 2017-08-11 12:57 | Report Abuse

I'm just sharing my opinion, up to yourself to judge. Contains no buying or selling recommendation. Trade at your own risk. I have cut loss, happy trading to all

Posted by pitbull > 2017-08-11 13:02 | Report Abuse

When drop many doggy..come out bark

Posted by pitbull > 2017-08-11 13:20 | Report Abuse

U go genting sure win meh...? Sochai

Posted by hng33 > 2017-08-11 13:27 | Report Abuse

Its fair, bear own risk, enjoy own reward.

Each transaction involve wiling seller and willing buyer, those seller cut loss now give other to buy for odds to gain next

Posted by KYYMachai > 2017-08-11 13:28 | Report Abuse

This bet is much better than Genting, if price below cost can just hold on.

But in casino, must show your bet first and also need to let go your bet when losing.
That is the BIG difference !

Posted by hng33 > 2017-08-11 15:03 | Report Abuse

Recovering :D)

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-11 15:06 | Report Abuse

Holding quite well, continue collecting low to take advantage of the correction

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-11 15:08 | Report Abuse

KYY and OTB gang going in la.

So sit tight and expect more than 50% gains from here

Posted by hng33 > 2017-08-11 15:09 | Report Abuse

bargain time over, now many due to wake up, rushing ahead of full recover

Posted by musangfoxking > 2017-08-11 15:10 | Report Abuse

i am here!!!!! the price will follow me to the sky!!! hahahahhaa

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-11 15:10 | Report Abuse

Haha, welcome in !

Posted by musangfoxking > 2017-08-11 15:11 | Report Abuse

believe the great bomoh!!!!!!1

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-11 15:12 | Report Abuse

Shoot shoot............shoot high and aim high..........hehe

Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-11 15:17 | Report Abuse

Run run run away.... chance to save ur leg..

Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-11 15:23 | Report Abuse

Dead Cat bound b4 slump to 0.1

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-11 15:23 | Report Abuse

When price go lower, noted a lot of value investors waiting to buy and keep.

Also noticed the volume getting thin every time of such correction. It's a good news to those still holding for revaluation once 2Q result is out.

Posted by Activeinvestor > 2017-08-11 15:27 | Report Abuse

Somemore those who sold around 7 or below 8 waiting to buy back, would bang their balls as the price not too easily fall unless KYY and OTB sell their

Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-11 15:29 | Report Abuse

Newsmaster u might right.. but rm 7 mightbe the station to rebound.. but duno when will it rebound

Just worries those CD holder hodling a white paper when come expired

Posted by stockranger > 2017-08-11 15:35 | Report Abuse

Though a little late, KYY and OTB should learn by now, Petronm is an extremely undervalued counter that they can really make more than others based on the healthy balance sheet and good dividend.

In addition, the price of the stock can double within very short span of time.

Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-11 15:40 | Report Abuse

Then y they didnt buy it?

Calling all CD holder.. run fast since got 0.25 now.. b4 it drop further later