Posted by probability > 2017-08-09 23:36 | Report Abuse

unclemau, too many variables unknowns like petron corp retail contribution, bataan refinery contribution etc,

its impossible for me to estimate

Posted by sheldon > 2017-08-10 00:43 | Report Abuse

Earnings should in all likelihood be in the neighborhood of the last quarter unless some big oversight in keeping records or deliberate cooking of the books.

Posted by davidtslim > 2017-08-10 02:06 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/david_petronm/129620.jsp


Petronm Part 5. Happy reading.

Posted by ipodkaki > 2017-08-10 05:34 | Report Abuse

Further down today till 8.5 ~ 8.6

Posted by UncleMau > 2017-08-10 07:24 | Report Abuse

Joker koyak engineer ipodkaki

Posted by sigmax > 2017-08-10 08:50 | Report Abuse

hope today will get better :/

Posted by dnn78 > 2017-08-10 09:05 | Report Abuse

Steadily gaining back momentum

Posted by dnn78 > 2017-08-10 09:07 | Report Abuse

Nasty seller forcing at 9.1 hahahahahaha

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-10 09:16 | Report Abuse

Will buy more if lower than 8.90.......david's estimation is near mine too

Posted by sigmax > 2017-08-10 09:23 | Report Abuse

cut loss.. petron cd .. too pain !!

Posted by jebat > 2017-08-10 09:25 | Report Abuse

chill bro....i keep waiting cd also....

Posted by Awet91 > 2017-08-10 09:29 | Report Abuse

I wait cd at 0.275 good price to collect if can

Posted by Awet91 > 2017-08-10 09:31 | Report Abuse

While i wait cd i go to pmetal-ct hehe buy yesterday and need to wait today to fly more

Posted by ipodkaki > 2017-08-10 09:35 | Report Abuse

finally done selling remaining of my shares at 9? petron's realistic price is 7.5~7.8 for medium term. See you all lol

Posted by sheldon > 2017-08-10 09:40 | Report Abuse

I was expecting a super-bull with 5 sen per litre increase in retail pump prices but it's going south. It probably overreacted a few days back.

Posted by stocknanmy > 2017-08-10 09:46 | Report Abuse

Jangan risau, kuat jual sikit, lebih baik habiskan semua yg ada lagi.

Kita tetap sabar tunggu.

Posted by hkck > 2017-08-10 09:47 | Report Abuse

tunggu until when...

Posted by bulldog > 2017-08-10 09:50 | Report Abuse

until@10...then we take profit a bit

Posted by hkck > 2017-08-10 09:53 | Report Abuse

petronm's official results out today yea?

Posted by KYYMachai > 2017-08-10 09:54 | Report Abuse

Waiting for sifus KYY and OTB to come.............lol

Posted by dnn78 > 2017-08-10 09:58 | Report Abuse

mother still lao sai but sons steady with buyer..
looking good

Posted by GICSpore > 2017-08-10 10:01 | Report Abuse

This correction is quite normal for stock especially like Petronm, we still like it.

David's latest report was way too close to our projection. Salute you, David and keep up the good work.

Posted by charles_cty > 2017-08-10 10:06 | Report Abuse

i think contra players already fully cleared and scared off...after few days drop...now all are genuine players with holding power...hope the price stay stable and wait for result release....

Posted by 9888 > 2017-08-10 10:09 | Report Abuse

tq david for estimation , add more

Posted by Gaybird Lim > 2017-08-10 10:28 | Report Abuse

Yeah. Hope the price will stable - That's a reasonable expectations.

Previously when qr released the price drop from 8.8 to 7.0 even with dividends ex date near.

After all, petronm is for long term. It needs time.

Posted by Khye Lock Tneoh > 2017-08-10 11:14 | Report Abuse

As far as this counter concern short term very hard to say how the share price will move, however long term the growth prospects and solid fundamentals still intact.

2 months back when the share price dropped to $7+, those "so call experts" jump out to talk so much negative about it but today after 4 days price consolidation the price still around $8.8 ! Let the price do the talking.

As at yesterday refinery margin still stood firm at USD11.5+ and best still since beginning of July refinery margin had been staying above USD10 and Brent Oil price also stable above USD50, so if the figures can maintain until end of September then solid 3rd Qtr earning will be expected.

Cheers

Posted by stockranger > 2017-08-10 11:17 | Report Abuse

Cheers ! Fantastic stock to hold till above RM10.50

Posted by InsiderR > 2017-08-10 11:55 | Report Abuse

Usd11.50 is only the margin for Ron92 alone and that is Sgp benchmark. Similar with crude oil benchmarks i.e. WTI, Brent, Tapis etc., all having different prices. Overall refinery margin cannot just based on Ron92 margin since each refinery produces variety of products, some products high margin and some very low margin. Also, margin should also take into account of Cracking facility/ technology used in the plant. Not all refineries will enjoy the same margin. Higher the technology, more refined products can be extracted from each bbl of crude oil.
Any sifu pls correct me if i m wrong.

Posted by jebat > 2017-08-10 13:23 | Report Abuse

just pickup today........patient is virtue.....

Posted by Imposterranger > 2017-08-10 13:30 | Report Abuse

Went in again around 8.83..............another 5K

Posted by andr > 2017-08-10 13:54 | Report Abuse

I am expecting this retracement to head for 8.2 and/or towards new QR results.

Posted by bj469 > 2017-08-10 14:10 | Report Abuse

andr, your expectation is based on technical chart?

Posted by Imposterranger > 2017-08-10 14:13 | Report Abuse

Cup and handle formation is a powerful run up

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-10 14:22 | Report Abuse

RESULT today? tomolo?

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-10 14:25 | Report Abuse

As a recap issued earlier by sumato88 :

Stock: [PETRONM]: PETRON MSIA REFINING& MKTG BHD
Jun 22, 2017 01:41 PM | Report Abuse

Wow, just realized so many "experts" here talking about how oil price crash will erode Petronm's profit. Looks like everyone is worry about that. Believe it or not, I am still a believer and holding my shares in Petronm. I think time will tell who is right or wrong. As I said earlier, if you buy or sell Petronm's share based on oil price movement, my suggestion is to trade crude oil future.

I must admit that crude oil price movement does have impact to Petronm but the impact is only limited to its inventory holding (typically about 3 weeks) where management hedge half of it (makes sense to hedge as you source your crude from independent oil producer, unlike Shell Refining in the past where they don't hedge as they source from the parent co, this also explains the higher volatility of shell's profit)

I think the key to refining profit is still the refining margin where Jay pointed out correctly that 2Q17 refining margin is still better than 1Q17. Someone also pointed out that crude oil price crash from usd100/bbl in 2014 to 55 (average) and 44 (average) in 2015 and 2016 respectively but Petronm doesn't seem to be affected as it reported higher profit in 2015 (rm221m) and 2016 (rm238m).

Some of you may ask why? I attribute that to 3 factors, (1) refining margin is still the major profit driver, (2) whatever inventory gain and loss is 50% hedged, & (3) the inventory holding at any point in time is only 3 weeks, hence the inventory exposure is on 3 weeks rolling basis. That means the impact is limited to 3 weeks out of 52 weeks if oil price stabilizes after the sudden plunge. Oil price move up and down everyday, so refinery will have inventory gain or loss everyday. That is the reason why Petronm's 2015 & 2016 profit doesn't correlate with oil price crash.

And last but not least, I am still bullish on Petronm's retailing biz, which offers stable profit and growing volume. This is the jewel of the biz.

Posted by lincm86 > 2017-08-10 14:49 | Report Abuse

Would the result release not be the following week? (17~18 Aug 2017)

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-10 15:00 | Report Abuse

paperplane, today starting at 4 pm in Philippines

Posted by Aseng > 2017-08-10 15:04 | Report Abuse

Sumato88 is a great sifu

last quarter he is the only sifu who made the right calculation of Petronm Q! earning , with a clear logic and backward calculation from the parent company result released earlier.

The only sifu aseng 100% convinced sharp and Great.

his mathematical deduction is just simply sharp and clear, if you can follow his argument in his deduction , you have no doubt of his inference.


thanks sifu sumato88

Posted by stocknanmy > 2017-08-10 15:06 | Report Abuse

sumato88 betul betul sifu yg selalu beri arahan dan nasihat yg tepat dgn terang

Posted by jebat > 2017-08-10 15:33 | Report Abuse

next week akan naik .......i believe.....

Posted by JPMorgan > 2017-08-10 15:46 | Report Abuse

Ready to take in more mother for next level to take advantage of current weakness in price

Posted by KYYMachai > 2017-08-10 15:49 | Report Abuse

You take mother, we will absorb the CD, deal............

Posted by Activeinvestor > 2017-08-10 15:53 | Report Abuse

On my way to jump into both for better tommorow.

Posted by Dragonpick > 2017-08-10 16:05 | Report Abuse

Press meeting for today starts, any written issuance on the website ?

Posted by Newbie7229 > 2017-08-10 16:07 | Report Abuse

Anyone please update the press conference's news from philipines?

Posted by Dragonpick > 2017-08-10 16:08 | Report Abuse

Or any live broacast ?

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2017-08-10 16:13 | Report Abuse

Price already high.time to drop some.

Posted by AliCafe > 2017-08-10 16:18 | Report Abuse

wah..drop almost rm1, time to buy again? :)

Posted by Dragonpick > 2017-08-10 16:25 | Report Abuse

Good news breaking out..........from Philipnies

Posted by stockranger > 2017-08-10 16:26 | Report Abuse

Yeah ya yes yes..................................lol confirmed good news...............hooray