when I bought this stock around RM4, someone told me this stock will drop to RM2, then when I bought it around RM7, someone told me it will drop to RM4, then again when I bought it around RM9, someone told me it will drop to RM7, maybe I am one of many so called "idiot" that who believe in this company, wish me luck
even though the war coming, will it affect me to go to Petron station fill up my gas tank, or due to war, we will not use our car to work, planes will stop flying (jet fuel), no gas to do cooking (gasul)...power generation, transportation, agriculture, construction, mining, and manufacturing, directly or indirectly need fuel...because of war all the industries have to stop...or...life goes on...think about it
After all, no point leave millions in the bank account doing juz nothing. Only those not so rich will come and sour grape lor
Here we have so many higher level cum experienced and well educated investors monitoring it, why worry ? Needless to say, they have money to hold too !! Hehehe
To PETRONM shareholders, especially call warrants holders, suggest to exit by tomorrow as I will be publishing an article probably Monday evening on its possible unsatisfactory earnings based on Petron Corp earnings reported on 8th August 2017.
Posted by stockraider > Aug 13, 2017 11:13 PM | Report Abuse X
U must understand the power of bear is 2x more power than the bull mkt power loh....!!
If stockmarket or a stock can takes 6 mths to rise 20%, it may only take 3 mths to fall 20% back mah....!!
The above is applicable to systematic risk of investment loh...!!
But if u invest in a stock based on valuation....if u buy the stock rm 3.00 when it is actual worth rm 7.00...u r protected by margin of safety over long run loh...!!
this is provided ur computation of valuation is correctly done loh...!!
So u do not worry about short term fluctuation, if u done proper valuation & determine margin of safety loh...!!
U MUST UNDERSTAND WHAT IS OVERVALUE LOH...!! GOOD EXAMPLE PET DAG
In this type of mkt condition. u must understand what is overvalue loh...!1
If u have pet dag PE 24 Share price Rm 24.00...earnings stagnant for last 5 yrs, it very difficult to justify undervalue loh...!!
Pe is one of the method of valuation...just like a good basket ball player usually they are tall. A tall basket player give him the inherent advantage mah...!!
Of course, this does not mean short players cannot be good players, but they need to overcome the additional disadvantage being short loh..!!
Raider do not do not recommend u use Pe as only criteria to value stock loh....!! But it is an obvious important criteria loh...!!
Come back to 3iii, he cannot be honest to say Pet Dag is undervalue whereas others similiar stock trading a much much lower PE is overvalue loh...!!
It cannot be for example like Petchem and Petron should be more overvalue than Pet dag unless 3iii is dishonest in his assessment loh..!!
The reason why 3iii attack raider integrity, bcos he know cannot win the arguement of Pet Dag Pe 24x is overvalue loh...!!
HOW PEOPLE SELF DENIAL WHEN STOCK OVERVALUE LOH..!! A GOOD EXAMPLE HOW A CONMAN WILL MANIPULATE HIS PETDAG
HE WILL START WITH BAD MOUTHED THE COMPETITOR COMPANY like Petron LOH..!! Certain companies are easy to value.
HE WILL QUOTE HIS FAVORITE CO; These companies have consistent and growing high quality earnings and free cash flows.
HE WILL QUOTE SOME TECHNICAL MUMBO JUMBO LIKE DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW & MENTIONED SOME LEARNED SIFU TO JUSTIFY HIS OVERVALUATION WHICH U DON UNDERSTANDLIKE , Intrinsic value of an asset is the discounted present value of all its future cash flows (Warren Buffett).
RAIDER COMMENT BTW PETDAG IRR IS ONLY 5.5% OVERVALUE IN W,BUFFET STANDARD.
THEN HE WILL END WITH SAYING HIS OVERVALUE STOCK GOOD LOH..!! e.g. Petdag is an easier company to value.
WHY PET DAG IS OVERVALUE ?? IN 2014 PET DAG CRASH FROM RM 30.00 ALL THE WAY DOWN TO AS LOW AS RM 15.OO LOH....!! WHY LEH ?? BCOS MKT SEE PET DAG NEVER EPS NEVER ABOVE RM 1.OO HISTORICALLY, SO IF IT SHARE IS ABOVE RM 30.00 ,ITS PE IS ABOVE STAGGERING 30X HIGH LOW, THUS MKT SELLOFF ALL THE WAY DOWN TO RM 15.00 PER SHARE IN 2015 LOH...!! A DRASTIC FALL OF 100%, WITHIN A PERIOD OF 1 YEAR LOH...!!
WHY A FINE STOCK LIKE PET DAG CAN CRASH 100% IN A PERIOD WITHIN A PERIOD OF 1 YR LEH ?? IT IS ALL BCOS OF UNSUSTAINABLE PE 30X LOH....!!
PET DAG HAS NO GROWTH IN EPS FOR MANY YEARS...ON TOP OF THAT, WITH PE 30X SURE A RECIPE FOR SELLOFF DISASTER LOH...!!
EVEN TODAY PET DAG AT PE 24X ALSO APPEAR OVERVALUE WHEN COMPARE WITH PETRON PE 8X LOH...!
BUT UNLIKE PETDAG, THIS PETRON HAS SHOWN ABILITY TO GROW EARNINGS WITH Q1 RESULT, WHILE PET DAG EARNINGS WITH NO GROWTH AND FLAT FOR A FEW YEAR LOH..
Petron is expected to make at least eps Rm 1.20 this yr bcos there are growth in earnings, thus potential upgrade pe of petron from 8x to 11.7x.
That means Petron TP rm 14.00 loh...!!
Now assuming there is upgrade Pe 8x to PE 11.7x for Petron is it fair, is it justifiable leh ?
To see whether fair or not we need to compare with Pet dag loh...!!
1. Petron Eps above Rm 1.20 v Pet Dag eps Rm 1.00 2. Petron got Eps growth v Pet dag none 3.Petron nta rm 4.70 or price to book 1.9x v pet dag nta rm 5.30 or price to book of 4.5x loh...!!
Based on above conclusion Petron TP Rm 14.00 with Pe 11.7x very reasonable when compare to pet dag PE valuation 24x loh...!!
There is alot more than 100% margin of safety for Petron relative to Pet dag loh....!!
Posted by 3iii > Aug 13, 2017 02:11 PM | Report Abuse
I particularly like the way our raider values Hengyuan in this forum.
Last quarter EPS 93 sen.
Annualised this gives projected FY EPS of 93 sen x 4 = 374 sen.
Petdag's PE is 24x. raider thinks Hengyuan should enjoy a PE of no less than Petdag.
Therefore, raider's price for Hengyuan, using his clever assumptions, should be:
374 sen x 24 = RM 89.76 ( or RM 90).
Valuation is so easy. If you do not know how to do valuation, please ask raider to show you.:-)
P/S: Be careful also, as I have repeatedly warned that not everyone in this forum has integrity.
THE ABOVE IS EXAMPLE IS HOW 3iii BAD MOUTHED RAIDER LOH....!!
RAIDER VALUATION OF HRC RM 22.00 TO RM 42.00 IS NOT BASED ON PE VALUATION MAH...!! THE VALUATION RAIDER DERIVE FOR HRC IS FROM REPLACEMENT VALUE OF HRC REFINERY LOH....!! THAT MEANS NEW 120K BPD REFINERY NEW COST RM 12.8 BILLION THUS HRC SHARE VALUE RM 42.00 PER SHARE WHEN NEW AND WHEN OLD DISCOUNT ROUGHLY 50% VALUE ROUGHLY RM 22.00 PER SHARE LOH...!!
BUT ONE INTERESTING THING U NEED TO TAKE NOTE IS PET DAG VALUATION IS DERIVE BY EPS RM 1.00 X PE 24X = RM 24.00 PER SHARE LOH...!!
HOLDING THE ABOVE VIEW, DO U NOT THINK PETRON WITH EPS OF RM 1.20 AND IF PE CAN PUSH & UPGRADE TO 24X LIKE PET DAG, THERE MAY BE A POSSIBILITY THAT PETRON SHARE PRICE CAN GO UP TO EPS 1.20 X PE 24X = RM 28.80 PER SHARE ?
WHY RAIDER DARE TO SAY LIKE THAT ? BCOS EPS OF PETRON OF RM 1.20 ALREADY EXCEED PET DAG EPS OF RM 1.00. ON TOP OF THAT PETRON HAVE EPS GROWTH WHEREAS PET DAG HAD NONE LOH...!!
THE ARGUEMENT AGAINST PETRON NOT GETTING PE 24X IS THAT PET DAG PE 24X ITSELF IS VERY OVERVALUE HENCE DO NOT DESERVE PE 24X LOH...!!
THUS THAT CASE PET DAG SHARE PRICE SHOULD FALL TO RM 12.00 TRADE NEAR PETRON UPGRADED PE 11.7X LOH...!!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sigmax
221 posts
Posted by sigmax > 2017-08-11 15:41 | Report Abuse
cd still have 6 months to go .. will rebound more than 0.25 not worth to sell now ..