Posted by RainT > 2019-02-21 17:58 | Report Abuse

just up only few days ago, tomorrow will gap down again

Posted by apolloang > 2019-02-21 17:59 | Report Abuse

shocking result where got worth so much?

Posted by Jaya > 2019-02-21 18:02 | Report Abuse

5.50 tomorrow la

Posted by Richard Lee > 2019-02-21 18:09 | Report Abuse

excellent!

Posted by value88 > 2019-02-21 18:20 | Report Abuse

Result koyak. Stock price will koyak in tandem tomorrow.
I expect poor results this quarter, but not as bad as this.
Hengyuan may suffer the same fate.

I hope it won't drag down all O&G related stocks tomorrow..

Posted by Remain Calm > 2019-02-21 18:20 | Report Abuse

@Choivo, your earlier wish of hoping a "A. Loss" has been realized now.

Posted by Remain Calm > 2019-02-21 18:23 | Report Abuse

Mine prediction earlier was "B. 0-50mil" earning. But having said that doesn't mean I'm going to sell tmr. Instead of selling I am going to collect some tomorrow.

Posted by zoizai > 2019-02-21 18:24 | Report Abuse

Below rm5 please

Posted by fkser > 2019-02-21 18:26 | Report Abuse

Fantasy

Posted by KLCI Going Heaven > 2019-02-21 18:38 | Report Abuse

yay good chance to accumulate WAKAKAKAK NICEE QR CANTEEEEK

Posted by Kawkaw > 2019-02-21 18:47 | Report Abuse

Qr cntik..
Maybe div 28-30¢...get money park lo

Posted by KLCI Going Heaven > 2019-02-21 18:49 | Report Abuse

i know who will be very happy now

Posted by RainT > 2019-02-21 18:49 | Report Abuse

..

Posted by 1910982335855168 > 2019-02-21 18:56 | Report Abuse

dividend 20 cent is stated already, whats the fuss here, do you buy for long term or 3 days?...

Posted by KLCI Going Heaven > 2019-02-21 18:57 | Report Abuse

they buy for 1 day WAAKAKAKA

Posted by pang72 > 2019-02-21 19:00 | Report Abuse

The problem is " I don't see LCTitan down much for bad result;

Posted by 1910982335855168 > 2019-02-21 19:06 | Report Abuse

most 'heavyweights' here bought for its Dividend and prospects, come on guys...

Posted by Airline Bobby > 2019-02-21 19:15 | Report Abuse

This quarter showed the results of a downtrend oil. The next quarter we know oil went uptrend ald. So...still want to sell? Pls do. Thank you

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-21 19:16 | Report Abuse

loss money still got 20 sen dividend.....

Posted by 1910982335855168 > 2019-02-21 19:18 | Report Abuse

please sell... This price is already expected with oil downtrend few months back. Remember Rm6 then? Come on dividend... im waiting... please sell cheaper

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-21 19:38 | Report Abuse

Haha i expected either a small profit or a small loss. Which was why i was waiting for the results to come out before buying my final batch. Despite the constant increase in price making me feel like an idiot.

Hedges are not perfect, most hedge only 70% or so. If your inventory drops in value by 30% or so over 3 months and you only hedge 70% or less. You will definitely kena. And top it off with negative refining to extremely thin margins, things will get interesting

But, the real economic power of this company is still unaffected. I look forward for the chance to buy below 6.5. =D

Posted by KLCI Going Heaven > 2019-02-21 19:39 | Report Abuse

told you, Choivoboy is here, he the most happy when petron make loss

Posted by amet2017 > 2019-02-21 19:41 | Report Abuse

Got dividend not bad. Not affecting medium and long term player

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-21 19:49 | Report Abuse

Put it this way loh....!!
Petron EPS Rm 0.80
Dividend per share Rm 0.20
Share price Rm 7.50 mah...!!

PE 9.3x
Div yield 2.67%.

The yield & PE is still better & comparable to Petdag, Pchem and LCTtitan mah.....!!

Petron share price will not fall much despite losses loh...!!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-21 19:54 | Report Abuse

This is weak reasoning.

Don't jinx it, later really only fall a bit then you know. My cash for the final 20% portion is still pending, i want the price as low as possible, so that i can buy as much as possible. After that enough d. Don't dare d, unless i manage to get them to answer me properly on a few more questions during the AGM.

=====
stockraider Put it this way loh....!!
Petron EPS Rm 0.80
Dividend per share Rm 0.20
Share price Rm 7.50 mah...!!

PE 9.3x
Div yield 2.67%.

The yield & PE is still better & comparable to Petdag, Pchem and LCTtitan mah.....!!

Petron share price will not fall much despite losses loh...!!
21/02/2019 19:49

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-21 19:58 | Report Abuse

Don't say didn't warn ah, way before quarter out already say.

====
Choivo Capital Yeah,

In general, a drop will definitelly cost a little on a net basis. Because derivatives do not cover with perfection. They usually aim to cover most, but not all. (if a company covers way more than the inventory etc, chances are they are now speculating on them, and its not just for the operations of the business.

There may be a slight timelag in crack, but this is really just conjecture.

At the end of the day, the above statements have very little bearing on the long term economic power of the company. They just need to be done right. If not done properly, we get that 900m stockholding loss in hy in 2014.

Having said that, the absolute best refineries are those that have the financial strength to never need to hedge. At the end of the day, the results from hedging over the long term is a negative. Hedging cost more than 4% of the underlying inventories per year, easily.

But very few can do that, due to the strong dividend payouts. Except for the ones under berkshire hathaway.
06/12/2018 10:17

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-21 20:03 | Report Abuse

Unlike Hengyuan which disclose statutory closure every 3 yrs, but Petron do not mah...!!

Based on insider info, Petron Q4 2018 had a statutory closure of refinery for maintenance in q4 2018 mah....!!
As a result xtra cost is incurred mah in Q4 for Petron loh....!!

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-02-21 20:12 | Report Abuse

i like being patient.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-21 20:12 | Report Abuse

to see their sustainable profits, see their results during a calm period.........

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-21 20:12 | Report Abuse

Haha yeah. Not sure i said that for HY or Petronm.

If the loss was like 100m or more, i would be worried. Because this would indicate weak decision making especially in Hedging (essentially buying insurance), unless your father is berkshire hathaway, you should be hedging.

If the loss was large, that would mean they have weak understanding towards reversion to the mean, points of ruin and potentially greedy for short term profits.

But they hedged well, 55mil deriv gain this q, lbt of 33m. Pretty ok with it and their hedging policies.

Anyway, i just set an alarm for below 6.5. Time to go back tidur.

===
Remain Calm @Choivo, your earlier wish of hoping a "A. Loss" has been realized now.
21/02/2019 18:20

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-21 20:14 | Report Abuse

This is one of the dumber things i read this week.

Imagine someone said this, "To know the worth of a man, see how he acts when everything is going well".

Makes no sense at all.

====
Posted by qqq3 > Feb 21, 2019 08:12 PM | Report Abuse

to see their sustainable profits, see their results during a calm period.........

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-21 20:16 | Report Abuse

Hedging can only help for 1 qtr mah....!!

It is due to statutory shutdown not disclose by Petron loh...!!

Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 21, 2019 08:12 PM | Report Abuse

Haha yeah. Not sure i said that for HY or Petronm.

If the loss was like 100m or more, i would be worried. Because this would indicate weak decision making especially in Hedging (essentially buying insurance), unless your father is berkshire hathaway, you should be hedging.

If the loss was large, that would mean they have weak understanding towards reversion to the mean, points of ruin and potentially greedy for short term profits.

But they hedged well, 55mil deriv gain this q, lbt of 33m. Pretty ok with it and their hedging policies.

Anyway, i just set an alarm for below 6.5. Time to go back tidur.

===
Remain Calm @Choivo, your earlier wish of hoping a "A. Loss" has been realized now.
21/02/2019 18:20

Posted by pang72 > 2019-02-21 20:20 | Report Abuse

Raider, go to hengyuan la..
Big time and opportunity coming liao

Posted by pang72 > 2019-02-21 20:22 | Report Abuse

History repeat HRC RM19.0 coming...lo

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-21 20:23 | Report Abuse

Raider, your insurance only help for one quarter also. No mah.

Every time it finishes, you need to buy.

Small shutdown only. Its scheduled, not statutory. I don't need them to announce to me if they want to wipe ass after going to toilet. This is small item, does not affect my understanding of the company at all. Net effect on volume was 5%. like this also announce meh.

In any event, this q, refining margins so thin/negative, along with stockholding loss, if they refine more, may lose more money. This is the right time to do maintenance. As long as the petrol stations got enough oil to sell, i ok d.

====
stockraider Hedging can only help for 1 qtr mah....!!

It is due to statutory shutdown not disclose by Petron loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-21 20:25 | Report Abuse

I got bought back some position around Rm 5.00 level on hengyuan in dec to jan period loh....!!

Looking at Petron result & the crack spread,I suspect result hrc would not be good...unless they have charge out all the statutory maintenance cost in q3 and have hedge their crack spread way ahead loh...!!

Posted by pang72 > Feb 21, 2019 08:20 PM | Report Abuse

Raider, go to hengyuan la..
Big time and opportunity coming liao

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-21 20:27 | Report Abuse

It is statutory loh....!!

All msian refinery petronas, petron and hengyuan have the same statutory shutdown year.

Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 21, 2019 08:23 PM | Report Abuse

Raider, your insurance only help for one quarter also. No mah.

Every time it finishes, you need to buy.

Small shutdown only. Its scheduled, not statutory. I don't need them to announce to me if they want to wipe ass after going to toilet. This is small item, does not affect my understanding of the company at all. Net effect on volume was 5%. like this also announce meh.

In any event, this q, refining margins so thin/negative, along with stockholding loss, if they refine more, may lose more money. This is the right time to do maintenance. As long as the petrol stations got enough oil to sell, i ok d.

====
stockraider Hedging can only help for 1 qtr mah....!!

It is due to statutory shutdown not disclose by Petron loh...!!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-21 20:29 | Report Abuse

Raider,

Its scheduled. You think topglove no need to maintain their machine? Its just that theirs is easier. Every time topglove maintain machine must tell you? No mah.

Aiyah, next q good or bad, so what, who cares? You only alive till next q meh?

Why not you try and find out if next 3,5,10 years good anot.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-21 20:36 | Report Abuse

Chivo,

Since people are trying to explain why Petron result so bad....despite positive hedge for this quarter mah...!!

Raider already given u the answer "statutory shutdown" loh....!!

The rest u want to know the future u go & research mah...every 3 yrs refinery need to statutory shutdown for maintenance loh...!!

I don know about rubber glove...but i suspect refinery more intensive mah.....!!

Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 21, 2019 08:29 PM | Report Abuse

Raider,

Its scheduled. You think topglove no need to maintain their machine? Its just that theirs is easier. Every time topglove maintain machine must tell you? No mah.

Aiyah, next q good or bad, so what, who cares? You only alive till next q meh?

Why not you try and find out if next 3,5,10 years good anot.

Posted by Aseng > 2019-02-21 20:45 | Report Abuse

stockraider's arguement is more rational

Posted by Aseng > 2019-02-21 20:48 | Report Abuse

choivo may be good in his calculation

but

try to apply your calculation in JAKS-WA , you will see all the calculation will look very stupid

Posted by Aseng > 2019-02-21 20:54 | Report Abuse

tomorrow at the beginning price may drop a little but it will not be that serious as you think .

why ?

1. those who invest in petronm have holding power

2. 20 cents dividend is a good enough reason for them to keep for another quarter to reevaluate their holding

3. the annual result is still look good to a long term holder comparing with petdag

Posted by apolloang > 2019-02-21 21:01 | Report Abuse

already up 1.00 since beginning of the month,so beware

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-21 21:02 | Report Abuse

Raider,

What explanation you need.

Which makes more sense, a scheduled shutdown which only affected 5% of volume in the current quarter.

Or the fact they did not fully hedge their inventories, which during the quarter, amounted to the revenue of RM2.9b? Last Q, gross profit margin of 5.6%. This q due to imperfect hedging, 30% drop in inventory prices and low to negative refinery margins, they have gross profit margin of (0.4%).

You think a scheduled maintenance that only affect 5% of volume for the quarter can have such a strong effect on the economy of scale that the gross margin drop from 5.6% to negative 0.4%?




Aseng,

You go try apply calculation in understanding the meaning love or and living a good life. Sure die straight. This is not calculation, this is just common sense (which includes some game theory), and primary school mathematics. The same applies to JAKS WA.

Posted by apolloang > 2019-02-21 21:02 | Report Abuse

profit become loss,dividend from 25cts to 20cts.....boh chow si

Posted by Aseng > 2019-02-21 21:03 | Report Abuse

is it too difficult for Petronm to make a 30 cents EPS for the next quarter

if it is not impossible or not too difficult , then what is the problem, why should we forego the 20 cent dividend

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-21 21:04 | Report Abuse

by Choivo Capital > Feb 21, 2019 08:14 PM | Report Abuse

This is one of the dumber things i read this week.
=======

whatever la...I already know u are a very arrogant young man.....

Posted by Aseng > 2019-02-21 21:09 | Report Abuse

who know the 20 cents dividend + 30 EPS may look attractive to the ang-mo Fund ,

that is why I said choivo is smart , hoping to collect more at 6.5

because he knows and agree Petronm is an unpolished gem

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-21 21:16 | Report Abuse

by Choivo Capital > Feb 21, 2019 08:14 PM | Report Abuse

This is one of the dumber things i read this week.
=======

whatever la...I already know u are a very arrogant young man.....

anyway, this is a good 2 months, every thing also rise a bit from from the bottom.....

Posted by Aseng > 2019-02-21 21:16 | Report Abuse

choivo,

I agree with your common sense provided you common makes sense
tell me which primary school teacher taught you to calculate how much your mother love you