Leno is right. Even if we buy the right at 1sen yield is less than FD rate. Our hopes are on the 2 free warrants, provided Insas share price stay above $1.
Mililia. Volatility changes in daily basis (warrant theoretical value changes too). Your table can't be used as reference. Can someone answer my above two enquiries, pls...
ss661m, Let assume the proposal confirmed. (mind u insas can cancel the proposal anytime if nobody want to subcribe hor. No penalty one) and let's presume u already own 5 insas share, and now pay rm 1 to get one RM1/4sen yield rps + 2 warrant (x-price RM 1/warrant). Also meaning the so-call trading of the right alreadi closed. The rps and warrants will be listed on KLSE and traded as other common warrant and stock lor. RPS also listed and traded like other loan stock counter lor. And definetly the rps will trade below RM 1.00 one. Why ? Because who wan to pay more than RM 1 ? U ? Me ? Nobodi ! And to answer your question is ... u can sell off your rps to other people like other share listed. How long it will be listed ? If not mistaken the circular mention 5 years. At the end of 5 years, if u still holding the rps (not sell yet), than the company will pay u RM 1 lor. On top of that, the company also can decide to buy back from u earlier than 5 years, in case insas can get cheaper than 4% loan from bank.
Leno. For a while I thought you are a genius but unfortunately you are such a rude person and idiotic. Even novice knows there are instrinsic value for the two warrants? And what about potential re-rating of mother share? You don't invest for today's price. You invest with a forward looking mindset.
SS61M: Again you are not reading properly. First of all, TP is a moving target and is not an absolute figure. Therefore you cannot use my figure as an absolute TP ie it will touch and stay there. Share price never moves like that. And yes volatility changes daily. That's why I mentioned I used historical volatility and I used the word range. It will or may trade within the range. Best you do your own homework. Don't take people's work as it is.
Anyway TQ to Leno & Mililia. Now I fully understood the game & I dun have to read the circular again. My English no good la... Sometime can't understand wat I read.
Posted by leno > Jan 5, 2015 01:04 PM | Report Abuse
- scenario 2 : u buy 5 insas share at 79 sen (=3.95); and u can sell "THE RIGHT" to 1 rps + 2 warrants. It is NOT how much u wan to sell. But how much people are willing to pay. U think people willing to pay how much leh ? Are u willing to pay 15 sen for the right ? and add another RM 1 to for the rps + 2 warrant meh ? At current insas price, the warrants is worth sheet. My sheet is worth more than the warrant. So, the question is how much is the RPS is really worth ? Are u willing to pay RM 1.15 for RM 1 rps with 4 sen dividend ? In 5 years u earn 5 x 4 sen = 20 sen dividend and can get back onli RM 1 !! In other words u get net 5 sen over 5 years or 1 sen per year per RM 1.15 = a fakking 0.8% yield ! U know wat is 0.8% yield or not ? 0.8% is not the same as 8% hor. U take saving account interest of 3% .. than divide it into 3 parts .. and the o.8% is still less than any of the divided part lar !!
So, u can put it the other way ... by asking are u willing to pay 1 sen for the right instead ? Meaning are u willing to pay RM 1.01 for 4 sen yield rps = 3.96% DIY ? Who fak wan to waste money for 3.96% when public bank is offering FD of 4% today ?!! In other words, the so called "THE RIGHT" is also USELESS !! If the right, the rps, and the warrant are useless, why fak we are still wasting time discussing the right, the rps and the warrants ? U no see that even the COMPANY alreadi stop talking about ... BOOOOOOONGOOOOOOOOOOK !! BOOOOOOONGOOOOOOOOOK !!!! BOOOOONGOOOOOKKKKK !!
Posted by leno > Jan 5, 2015 01:04 PM | Report Abuse
- scenario 2 : u buy 5 insas share at 79 sen (=3.95); and u can sell "THE RIGHT" to 1 rps + 2 warrants. It is NOT how much u wan to sell. But how much people are willing to pay. U think people willing to pay how much leh ? Are u willing to pay 15 sen for the right ? and add another RM 1 to for the rps + 2 warrant meh ? At current insas price, the warrants is worth sheet. My sheet is worth more than the warrant. So, the question is how much is the RPS is really worth ? Are u willing to pay RM 1.15 for RM 1 rps with 4 sen dividend ? In 5 years u earn 5 x 4 sen = 20 sen dividend and can get back onli RM 1 !! In other words u get net 5 sen over 5 years or 1 sen per year per RM 1.15 = a fakking 0.8% yield ! U know wat is 0.8% yield or not ? 0.8% is not the same as 8% hor. U take saving account interest of 3% .. than divide it into 3 parts .. and the o.8% is still less than any of the divided part lar !!
So, u can put it the other way ... by asking are u willing to pay 1 sen for the right instead ? Meaning are u willing to pay RM 1.01 for 4 sen yield rps = 3.96% DIY ? Who fak wan to waste money for 3.96% when public bank is offering FD of 4% today ?!! In other words, the so called "THE RIGHT" is also USELESS !! If the right, the rps, and the warrant are useless, why fak we are still wasting time discussing the right, the rps and the warrants ? U no see that even the COMPANY alreadi stop talking about ... BOOOOOOONGOOOOOOOOOOK !! BOOOOOOONGOOOOOOOOOK !!!! BOOOOONGOOOOOKKKKK !!
ok lets suppose you dun have any insas now and get no rights and buy no rights till after the offering when 3 things will be trading, The mother, warrant and RPS. Now say the RPS drop to 50 sen ! Man o man I BUY BUY BUY ! Why because it pay me 4 sen or 8% every years for 5 years. I'll take all I can get at that price ! So, guess what? It will NOT happen ! The price of the RPS will be underpinned by its 4% yield. It may drop below rm1 but its NOT going to drop much because every sen it drops raises the 4% yield. So, If it is not going to drop much should I buy the rights and pay rm1 for the rps ? Well maybe I expect it to drop to 90 sen after the offering ? Well, maybe so what cause I still get 4% on my rm1 price and the 10 sen drop will more than be made up by the price of the two warrants ? Lots of moving target here so cannot postulate each and every what if this or that but if you like insas (which i do) there are a few ways to play this to make some extra money. I think it is hard to imagine exercising the rights at RM1 and getting two free warrants plus the rps and not coming out ahead, I dun think the rps will drop below 80 sen (5% yield) and as long as the warrants are at least 10 sen each you can't lose and will still collect your dividend for 5 years. I see that as the WORST scenario. The best scenario seen the mother going into the money and the warrants rising sen for sen with it for huge profits.
Now if you dun wanna take rights nor buy them at all you can still buy the rps in the open market if it trades down to where the dividend make it interesting. In this case any price at 80 sen or below (5% yield) will be interesting. At 60 sen its almost 7% and a screaming buy. At 50 sen it's 8% and I'll mortgage my house to buy all I can. Not only would I get 8% interest for 5 years but in 5 years I redeem it for rm1 and get a 100% capital gain ! So, you see why the RPS price will be supported ? And, just like a bond the closer it get to redemption the higher the price will be because the cap gain per unit of time get compressed. It's NOT gonna be for instance at 80 sen after 4 years because if you buy it then and at that price its yield will be 24% for the 5th year !
Let assume the proposal confirmed. (mind u insas can cancel the proposal anytime if nobody want to subcribe hor. No penalty one)
and let's presume u already own 5 insas share, and now pay rm 1 to get one RM1/4sen yield rps + 2 warrant (x-price RM 1/warrant). Also meaning the so-call trading of the right alreadi closed. The rps and warrants will be listed on KLSE and traded as other common warrant and stock lor. RPS also listed and traded like other loan stock counter lor. And definetly the rps will trade below RM 1.00 one. Why ? Because who wan to pay more than RM 1 ? U ? Me ? Nobodi !
osted by leno > Jan 5, 2015 01:04 PM | Report Abuse Posted by leno > Jan 5, 2015 01:04 PM | Report Abuse
- scenario 2 : u buy 5 insas share at 79 sen (=3.95); and u can sell "THE RIGHT" to 1 rps + 2 warrants. It is NOT how much u wan to sell. But how much people are willing to pay. U think people willing to pay how much leh ? Are u willing to pay 15 sen for the right ? and add another RM 1 to for the rps + 2 warrant meh ? At current insas price, the warrants is worth sheet. My sheet is worth more than the warrant. So, the question is how much is the RPS is really worth ? Are u willing to pay RM 1.15 for RM 1 rps with 4 sen dividend ? In 5 years u earn 5 x 4 sen = 20 sen dividend and can get back onli RM 1 !! In other words u get net 5 sen over 5 years or 1 sen per year per RM 1.15 = a fakking 0.8% yield ! U know wat is 0.8% yield or not ? 0.8% is not the same as 8% hor. U take saving account interest of 3% .. than divide it into 3 parts .. and the o.8% is still less than any of the divided part lar !!
So, u can put it the other way ... by asking are u willing to pay 1 sen for the right instead ? Meaning are u willing to pay RM 1.01 for 4 sen yield rps = 3.96% DIY ? Who fak wan to waste money for 3.96% when public bank is offering FD of 4% today ?!! In other words, the so called "THE RIGHT" is also USELESS !! If the right, the rps, and the warrant are useless, why fak we are still wasting time discussing the right, the rps and the warrants ? U no see that even the COMPANY alreadi stop talking about ... BOOOOOOONGOOOOOOOOOOK !! BOOOOOOONGOOOOOOOOOK !!!! BOOOOONGOOOOOKKKKK !!..................
Why keep talking about how much yield the RPS can bring to us. The reason to subscribe or not to subscribe the right issue is very simple. Just ask yourself do you think the company going to make money in the next 5 years? Do you think that the company subsidiaries (Inari, Omesti, SYF, Hohup) going to perform well in the next 5 years? if YES, subscribe. if NO, then fxxx oxx, simple. The 4 sen per year for the RPS may not seem very attractive, however, don forget about the warrants. If the company doing well in business, the mother share price will eventually follow. If the company doing bad, give you 10sen per year RPS also not use cause the mother price will drop until it become a peanut.
Buy the right base on the company prospect, not for the pre- or post right price cause you basically earn NOTHING after the Ex-date readjustment.
Needling end of day .. Price drop 2.5 den. Inari will also drop cod of rights issues so expect in dad to drop some more ... Don't forget .. In dad is stockbroking company .. Now foreign funds selling .. Local also selling to preserve cash ...
there are scenario where RPS can sell over rm1. that is where interest rates FALL so that bank deposits and other instruments yield far less than 4%. i.e. usa today. 5 year gubment bonds yield 1.6% so corporate bonds yielding 4% can easily sell over par. so never say never. now some countries have NEGATIVE rates ya know !
but i agree rps not so interesting EXCEPT if it trade down a lot after offering so the effective rate is 5, 6, 7 or 8%. Then I BUY. I still will buy it even though NOT exciting on its own when offered me because I do find the two free warrants EXCITING and if getting 4% on the rps is the price I have to pay then I'll pay it cause i'll collect the interest and get my money back eventually. Then if rps drops I will buy more if the effective interest rate seduces me at the time.
so, my interest in the offering is primarily the warrants but separately if the rps go down later it might also become a separate interest.
i see little risk in any of this because insas is a solid undervalued company and inari is going to keep growing by leaps and bounds for the foreseeable future.
i oso dun see them cancelling the offering because the main shareholder wants to buy no matter what as a means to further increase his holdings. I oso want to buy. I want to support my company ! I see myself as part owner and not a hit and run gambler like hamsubsandwich.
The RPS is not interesting but its the key to warrants. And RPS will not drop as much. One gotta understand the structure of this RPS.
1. It can be used to convert your warrants. Instead of pumping RM1.00 cash, you can use RPS to convert the warrants. Great if you can buy below RM1.00. Because of that, I don't believe it will drop. I am not surprise, RM1.00 will be preserved. Why would anyone wanna sell RPS below what they have given to Insas? Especially true when RPS can be used as a currency to convert warrants, without taking out anymore cash.
2. Can you imagine what will Dato Thong do if RPS trades below RM1? He will buy the RPS for the same reason as Point (1). Why should he pay RM1 to convert his warrants, when he can purchase the RPS below RM1.00 as everyone expected? If RPS trades at RM0.80, might as well he purchase RPS at RM0.80 and use it convert his warrants in the future isn't it? Why need to fork out RM1.00 to convert? That is silly...
3. Company will also purchase back the RPS because they don't have to pay interest for the RPS that has already been purchased. Or in another words, pay interest to themselves... right hand to left hand transaction. And if they can purchase at RM0.80 in the market today, then they don't have to redeem the RPS at RM1.00 in the future isn't it? Not only they save on interest, they may recognize capital gain during maturity. Company will only buy the RPS when it is trading at ridiculous price because the reason they issue RPS is for funding and not to re-purchase share back. But if at ridiculous low price, I am confident they will buy back for the reason above.
4. For every 2 warrants there will be ONLY 1 RPS, so supply for RPS is limited compare to warrants. And since RPS can be used to convert warrants to mother share coupled with RPS earns interest, I doubt RPS will trade much below RM1.00, if it trades below RM1.00.
5. Lastly, we are talking about Insas (mother share) trading at RM0.80, so everyone thinks RPS is not interesting. But has anyone give a thought... what if.. what if... mother share trades at RM1.00 or RM1.20? We all knows warrants will worth a lot.. But what about RPS? Do you think RPS will trade at RM1.00? Logically IT WONT!
Insas at RM1.20, I have the option to convert my warrants. But I don't have to use my cash. I can use the RPS I have inherited from IOU (corporate exercise) at RM1.00 to convert one of my warrant. And another warrant, if I am smart, I will buy from the market since everyone thinks it will be traded at RM0.80 (at a discount), then use it to convert my 2nd warrant. Then I effectively change RM1 RPS (from my inherited RPS) to get RM1.20 Insas' share and change RM0.80 RPS (I bought from market) to get RM1.20 Insas share. That is common sense.
So no reason for RPS to trade far off from its par value. Warrants will more than offset the RPS if it ever trades below RM1.00. And if Insas share go pass RM1.20, RPS will not trade at RM1.00 anymore. So if your view is within 5 years Insas share will trade up to RM1.20.... you will gain a lot from warrants and you will get a lot from RPS...
No reason for the company to call off the corporate exercise. This is a good deal...But oh well Mr. Market is always right. I only can share my view.
Wat cock so many scenarios O... Just subscribe if u are shareholder or else others will take a bite of your pizza. Then take the weak market sentiment as an opportunity to buy as many RPS as possible at 80-90sen (hopefully lower) for interest yield & capital gain. If mother share price rally up then can consider buying more warrant. End of the story!
warrant convertible to mother at RM1. normally this means you have to give rm1 cash to convert warrant. but not so with the rps. can use rps to convert warrant into mother. no cash necessary.
but you have 2 warrant right? oni one rps so oni can convert one warrant with no cash using rps.
so how ? simple, instead of spending rm1 cash to convert second warrant can buy rps from market if less than rm1 and save on cash cost.
They will definitely push the price back to at least 1.2 before corporate exercise. Not everyone has deep insight & forward looking as the above sifus. Unless the sifus can buy all the rights la... Most layman will focus on the detachable warrants. 20% discount is all they need.
one other thing. he is right this will support the price of the rps and it should not fall far if at all below rm1 because it is as good as rm1 cash when converting the warrant. in fact can look at rps as FD paying 4% than can be redeemed along with one warrant and no cash for a share of the mother at anytime during the next 5 years.
this RPS seems very interesting. could you confirm or append the part of the statement which says RPS can be used as a currency to convert the warrants to Insas? Thanks in advance.
Please refer to the announcement where the company posted the corporate exercise circular in PDF. And go to page 6-7 in that circular. You will get all salient points for the RPS. This is the exact word from that page:-
"The RPS may be surrendered by the Warrant holders at 100% of the issue price of the RPS for the exercise of the Warrants in lieu of the exercise price of RM1.00 per warrant"
I'm pretty positive the weakness in share price is due to lack of understanding. Mother share should worth more than RM1. It's just matter of time before completion of the exercise. There is a reason why so...
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Posted by leno > 2015-01-05 13:04 |
Post removed.Why?