After you read Warren's letter, you will start to think, do I want to buy INSAS for what it has done with inari IPO in 2011? Or what it is doing today and what it is trying to achieve in 5 years from now.
If investing is about the past, I would be the top20 shareholder in INSAS.
But investing is about investing in the future, and margin of safety does nothing to tell you about the future.
Warren's exact words:
"Too often CEOs seem blind to an elementary reality: The intrinsic value of the shares you give in an acquisition must not be greater than the intrinsic value of the business you receive."
You really need to ask yourself this simple question, INSAS is selling inari shares every quarter. For what purpose? What is it buying with the money? Is it a destruction of value or a creation of value?
If the CEO thinks selling inari shares is worth investing in companies like vigsys, sengenic, numoni and especially the new company acquisition, you have to value the growth of these two companies relatively.
" Insas Bhd has acquired a 19.91% stake in Diversified Gateway Solutions Bhd (DGSB) via direct business transaction from Omesti Bhd for RM12.83 million cash or 4.75 sen per DGSB share. "
If the answer is value destruction, then it doesn't matter how much the nta of INSAS is because the CEO will just gamble it all away.
Business sense versus blind margin of safety? Good business? Imagine CEO selling 600+ million of inari shares to invest in 100 companies like this. Good luck. Bye bye good will.
If just investing buy companies with high nta low market cap was so easy, then everyone would be doing it. Just use klsescreener 5 minutes work. Office boy strategy. One simple indicator.
But it isn't that easy. You don't need much brains to invest, but you need a heavy dose of common sense.
"Too often CEOs seem blind to an elementary reality: The intrinsic value of the shares you give in an acquisition must not be greater than the intrinsic value of the business you receive."
Posted by Sslee > Feb 22, 2019 06:23 PM | Report Abuse
Dear 3iii and Philip, INSAS BERHAD (4081-M) 1st half 2019 Note 2019 (1st half) RM’000 Revenue 96,835 Cost of sales 1 (53,992) Gross profit 42,843 Other income 2 53,055 Administration expenses 3 (14,717) Other operating expenses 4 (48,411) Finance costs (11,502) Exceptional item 5 (2,692) Share of profits less losses of associate Companies 20,882 Profit before tax 39,458 Tax expense (3,911) Profit for the financial year 35,547 >>>>>>
FY 2019 INSAS
Rev 96.8m Cost of Sales (54m) Gross Profit 42.8m
less Adm Exp (14.7m) Other Exp (48.4m) Finance Costs (11.5m) Exceptional item (2.7m) Total Expenses (77.3m)
Gross Profit - Total Expenses =(34.5m)
Add #Other income 53.1m Share of profit of Associates 20.9m Total add income 74m
PBT = (34.5m) + 74m =39.5m
less 3.9m
PAT 35.6m
Finance costs: 11.5m (Loans eqv 192m)
#Other income: #Interest income 4.4m (Savings eqv 110 m) #Gain on disposal of shares in associate company 12.0m
The story of Insas in less than 2 minutes:
Insas is into many businesses. Its core businesses have not been profitable (Gross Profit shows a loss of -34.5m) the last half calendar year.
Its other incomes (including disposal of shares in associate of 12m) and share of profit of associates (20.9m) provide an additional income of 74m, pulling it out of its losses from its core business into profit after tax of 35.6m for the 1H 2019.
Prospects: The business of its associate Inari is projected to shrink this year. (negative outlook).
Thats why raider says Philip no business sense loh...!!
U ask urself Insas NTA already Rm 2.54....the 19% inari exceed insas mkt capitalization and inari is still carry at cost without mark to mkt revaluation mah...!!
If privatise surely inari will be revalue...thus another Rm 0.50 add to NTA giving Rm 3.04 per share mah...!!
U must understand Insas is value at a fair value Rm 3.04 is the basis of valuation....this is correct mah...if u liquidate the whole insas mah..!! Insas PE 40x is not an issue bcos earnings is not a basis of measurement unlike QL PE 50x mah...!!
This can explain if u have a vacant Bungalow of Rm 3.0M and Rented Bungalow of Rm 3.0M with rental of Rm 5k per mth next to each other loh.!
Use logic bcos the bungalow not rented worth zero compare to the bungalow worth Rm 3.0m based on PE 50x based on rental Rm 5k a mth ??
Surely u r not so stupid to accept that as a basis of arguement mah..!!
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 23, 2019 05:52 AM | Report Abuse
That is the silliest thing I have ever heard.
At to rm3, earnings of 7 cents (4 last quarters), you will be paying for INSAS 1.7 billion ringgit. PE of 42++ Earnings of 46 million., From a revenue of 240 million. ( In 2010 it had a revenue of 423 million, 60 million in net profit)
For a company of shrinking profits. Unsteady revenues, bad business investments. I'm all for speculation, but paying for something with warrants overhang, preferred shares and so many hidden hooks.... I don't get it.
This is what happens when you take "margin of safety" in vacuum.
U need mot be so dumb, to understand the business model of insas hathaway and it is same as berkshire hathaway mah...!!
If inari makes good capital gain, it is ok to take some money out of the table mah...it is all about investment mah...!!
Remember if u totally rely in the future u r speculating loh...my uncle use to buy 4ekor number 5454...he is speculating on the future mah..! No one can say he may not strike one day loh..! U see gambling is speculating on the future...in a way Investment in growth stock is speculating about the future loh..!! Even Pchem u pay Rm 8.50...when its NTA is Rm 3.50 u paying a premium hoping the growth can catch up mah.!!
But insas, u no need to speculate on the future the value is all there NTA Rm 2.54 u just pay Rm 0.82 for it r u speculating for the future when the value is all there for u to see leh ??
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 23, 2019 06:05 AM | Report Abuse
After you read Warren's letter, you will start to think, do I want to buy INSAS for what it has done with inari IPO in 2011? Or what it is doing today and what it is trying to achieve in 5 years from now.
If investing is about the past, I would be the top20 shareholder in INSAS. But investing is about investing in the future, and margin of safety does nothing to tell you about the future.
Warren's exact words:
"Too often CEOs seem blind to an elementary reality: The intrinsic value of the shares you give in an acquisition must not be greater than the intrinsic value of the business you receive."
You really need to ask yourself this simple question, INSAS is selling inari shares every quarter. For what purpose? What is it buying with the money? Is it a destruction of value or a creation of value?
If the CEO thinks selling inari shares is worth investing in companies like vigsys, sengenic, numoni and especially the new company acquisition, you have to value the growth of these two companies relatively.
" Insas Bhd has acquired a 19.91% stake in Diversified Gateway Solutions Bhd (DGSB) via direct business transaction from Omesti Bhd for RM12.83 million cash or 4.75 sen per DGSB share. "
If the answer is value destruction, then it doesn't matter how much the nta of INSAS is because the CEO will just gamble it all away.
Yes, you could buy that apartment from the seller for 500 thousand (he will be more than willing to sell it to you), and it has a value of 10 million (if the turkish governemnt relents and reopens cyprus), but how long do you have to wait? or if it will even happen
Still don't understand how it works in the context of a business?
Surely you are not so stupid as to overpay for a business with underperforming assets?
To explain the investment prowess of insas further...let raider take u 1 step further on ur example of DGSB loh....!!
" Insas Bhd has acquired a 19.91% stake in Diversified Gateway Solutions Bhd (DGSB) via direct business transaction from Omesti Bhd for RM12.83 million cash or 4.75 sen per DGSB share. " If the answer is value destruction, then it doesn't matter how much the nta of INSAS is because the CEO will just gamble it all away."
USE UR BRAIN AND THINK LOH...SUPPOSE UR FRIEND OPEN COFFEE SHOP AND SPEND RM 120K CAPITAL ON IT...U VISITED HIM ON DAY OF OPENING...U FIND THE LOCATION IS GOOD AND THE FOOD N SERVICE ARE ABOVE UR STANDARD LOH.!
UR FRIEND STILL MAKE A SMALL LOSSES AFTER 3 MTHS OF OPENING, THE PROSPECT IS STILL GOOD BUT UR FRIEND IS IN URGENT NEED OF MONIES , HE PROPOSE TO SELL 30% OF HIS BUSINESS TO U....IS IT FAIR TO PAY 30% BASED ON NET BOOK VALUE OR RM 36K LOH ?? FAIR MAH....USUALLY IT IS DONE THIS WAY....BCOS U DON WANT TO EXPLOIT UR FRIEND which r in need MAH....!!
SAME MAH...AFTER INSAS BOUGHT DGSB AT 4.75 SEN today DGSB SHARE PRICE IS 9.00 SEN A GAIN OF ALMOST 100% MAH...!!
U ASK YOURSELF WHETHER THIS DEAL VALUE CREATION OR VALUE DESTRUCTION LEH ??
THE ANS OBVIOUS MAH...THATS WHY RAIDER SAYS INSAS IS EQUIVALENT TO BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY LOH....!!
WITH CONSERVATIVE MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT APPROACH OF INSAS U R IN A VERY SAFE HANDS MAH...!!
Bungalow is assets...share is assets...business sense is making value on these assets works mah...!!
Use ur brain & common sense and think lah !!
U mean the Rm 3m rented for Rm 5k is worth Rm 3m whereas the vacant bungalow worth Rm 3m...is worth Rm 1.5m bcos vacant ?...use ur cow sense & think lah...!!
If u think like that ur real dumb loh....!!
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 23, 2019 10:20 AM | Report Abuse
is a business a bungalow?
if the stupid wishes to make a analogy, how about a 3 million rented apartment in Malaysia, and a 10 million abandoned empty apartment here:
Yes, you could buy that apartment from the seller for 500 thousand (he will be more than willing to sell it to you), and it has a value of 10 million (if the turkish governemnt relents and reopens cyprus), but how long do you have to wait? or if it will even happen
Still don't understand how it works in the context of a business?
Surely you are not so stupid as to overpay for a business with underperforming assets?
The whole insas episode really points to the fact that Philip and 3iii don know what is all the real viable investment all about mah....!!
Thats why raider says these people only know how to drive their car fwd but they do not know how to stop or reverse loh...!!
If they only know, how to drive the car fwd, if they keep quiet, no one will laugh at them loh....but they open their big mouth n start to criticize people who know how to drive the car fwd, stop and reverse like leno, calvin and raider....thats why raider tembak them for being naive loh......!!
These people investment education are not complete especially when invest based on margin of safety loh.....!!
If a business is shrinking and not making money, the management has to keep trying new things to make things work. If it keeps on not working, you will have to sell shares to pay your dividends and grow the business.
If you buy multiple nonperforming business, the earnings and returns of which are negative, you business will suffer and get worse over time.
Only idiots and poor people think about share price all the time only.
Business results and management execution are of the utmost importance.
what is drive car fwd. stop and reverse?
office boy talk. good luck with your imaginary 250K, probably more like 2.5K sounds more like it with your investing personality.
Irrational, repetitive, stuck with using the same tools and concepts forever.
with your so called margin of safety: they had rights issue to dilute company shares in 2015 which they didn't even know how to fully utilize until 2017+. then they have esos to dilute company shares further. then they have warrants to dilute company shares even further. all to get RM137 million in cash.
Why? if you say they have so much assets and money, why need to do activities that destroy shareholder value?
Please wait until your share price goes to rm3 then you sell ya(hopefully in 2 years Jan 2021). those who only know how to drive a car fwd forever better than those who don't even know what a car is.
U need to understand the vacant bungalow or empty land logic, value is already there even the assets are not generating return mah...!!
As long as u bought huge undervaluation & with big margin of safety u r fully protected mah....!!
U ask urself Insas NTA already Rm 2.54....the 19% inari exceed insas mkt capitalization and inari is still carry at cost without mark to mkt revaluation mah...!!
If privatise surely inari will be revalue...thus another Rm 0.50 add to NTA giving Rm 3.04 per share mah...!!
U must understand Insas is value at a fair value Rm 3.04 is the basis of valuation....this is correct mah...if u liquidate the whole insas mah..!! Insas PE 40x is not an issue bcos earnings is not a basis of measurement unlike QL PE 50x mah...!!
This can explain if u have a vacant Bungalow of Rm 3.0M and Rented Bungalow of Rm 3.0M with rental of Rm 5k per mth next to each other loh.!
Use logic bcos the bungalow not rented worth zero compare to the bungalow worth Rm 3.0m based on PE 50x based on rental Rm 5k a mth ??
Surely u r not so stupid to accept that as a basis of arguement mah..!!
When u have value already there why do u want to speculate 5354 4ekor can come out or not leh ??
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 23, 2019 11:32 AM | Report Abuse
no one is laughing.
People are thinking carefully.
If a business is shrinking and not making money, the management has to keep trying new things to make things work. If it keeps on not working, you will have to sell shares to pay your dividends and grow the business.
If you buy multiple nonperforming business, the earnings and returns of which are negative, you business will suffer and get worse over time.
Only idiots and poor people think about share price all the time only.
Business results and management execution are of the utmost importance.
what is drive car fwd. stop and reverse?
office boy talk. good luck with your imaginary 250K, probably more like 2.5K sounds more like it with your investing personality.
Irrational, repetitive, stuck with using the same tools and concepts forever.
with your so called margin of safety: they had rights issue to dilute company shares in 2015 which they didn't even know how to fully utilize until 2017+. then they have esos to dilute company shares further. then they have warrants to dilute company shares even further. all to get RM137 million in cash.
Why? if you say they have so much assets and money, why need to do activities that destroy shareholder value?
Please wait until your share price goes to rm3 then you sell ya(hopefully in 2 years Jan 2021). those who only know how to drive a car fwd forever better than those who don't even know what a car is.
Look at the logic loh....where did insas destroy value ??
Philip quote example DGSB....but insas is making almost 100% from the buy mah....!!
Insas networth has been growing every yr non stop for about 10 yrs...that is value creation mah....!!
Insas hold net cash more than Rm 300m...that means their balance sheet is more prudent than QL which has high borrowing loh...!!
People like Philip & 3iii don understand margin of safety investment, surely their comment are false & misleading unlike raider mah...!!
Insas with NTA Rm 2.54 and u can buy for Rm 0.82 & its networth is already there & growing every year non stop...why do u want to speculate in uncertain growth stock paying a huge premium... like my uncle speculate on 4 ekor.... who buy number 5354 hoping that it will come out loh..!!
No need to bother explaining to a guy who doesn't know what a car is. His investing is fish deep. Until I brought it up, he doesn't even know INSAS has bought DGSB.
>>>> Dgsb consolidation 2 to 1 . Where got 100% gained?
he doesn't even know what is consolidation means. Just spout and never check properly. Insas pay 4.75 cent, after 2:1 consolidation become 9.5. but share price drop to 9 cents. Smart insas. Buy loss making company. you think can get 100% gain?
Stockraider, investing not for you. You think you got 250K to play play with a stock? Better go back borrow more money from your dad la.
HAHAHAHAH ... leno always invest based on common sense lor. Price compare to net cash, net asset, earning, = KAYA. If leno style is wrong, leno long long time shift to Pundan style lor. But everi time leno look at leno share asset ... keep increasing in value, HAHAHAHAH ... Somemore, because of Graham method, help leno to retire at 39 y.o. enjoying life ... Last Dec, leno brought whole famili to ride a yatch at Monkey Mia at Australia ... NICE ! . The reason sometimes leno teach Graham method is ... because leno sometimes feel obliged to Graham for helping leno achieve leno's impossible dream. But onli sometimes feel niah ... other time leno prefer spending time .... laughing and cheering ... CANTEEEEEKK !! CANTEEEEEEK !! MUAHAHAHAHAH ... . Margin of safety based on 2 things after passing the QC phase. One is price compare to net cash, asset and earning, Second is ... this one leno keep as secret. Dun wan to share. Let u all sam see see, heart itchy itchy. HAHAHAAHAHAH. . INSAS pass with flying colour. . Benjamin Graham rarely tok kok about business this and that. HE gave a good reason, a very sensible reason as well. It is all in the balance sheet. We can tok kok about the bisness prospect day in day out .... at the end it is the balance sheet that is matter. U said based on this and that insas has poor business prospect ... but the balance sheet show a total opposite. From value less than RM 1 ... insas currently is worth more than RM 3 if liquidated, and with take over price worth more than RM 1.50 .. The net cash is so high. Net cash mean pay off all the debt, all solid asset donate to chung hwa school, and the cash left over is call net cash. In case u still dun understand the net cash impact .... then u can go jump into river, nobodi will miss anything. . HAHAHAHAAHAHAHHA ... . CHIAYOK ! CHIAYOK ! INSAS CHIAYOK !!!
Why raider call Philip & 3iii stupid...stupid loh....!!
Raider is straightforward and frank always call a spade a spade mah & unlike leno more diplomatic mah....!!
If u don understand...explaination below u r damn stupid loh..!!
U need to understand the vacant bungalow or empty land logic, value is already there even the assets are not generating return mah...!!
As long as u bought huge undervaluation & with big margin of safety u r fully protected mah....!!
U ask urself Insas NTA already Rm 2.54....the 19% inari exceed insas mkt capitalization and inari is still carry at cost without mark to mkt revaluation mah...!!
If privatise surely inari will be revalue...thus another Rm 0.50 add to NTA giving Rm 3.04 per share mah...!!
U must understand Insas is value at a fair value Rm 3.04 is the basis of valuation....this is correct mah...if u liquidate the whole insas mah..!! Insas PE 40x is not an issue bcos earnings is not a basis of measurement unlike QL PE 50x mah...!!
This can explain if u have a vacant Bungalow of Rm 3.0M and Rented Bungalow of Rm 3.0M with rental of Rm 5k per mth next to each other loh.!
Use logic bcos the bungalow not rented worth zero compare to the bungalow worth Rm 3.0m based on PE 50x based on rental Rm 5k a mth ??
Surely u r not so stupid to accept that as a basis of arguement mah..!!
When u have value already there why do u want to speculate 5354 4ekor can come out or not leh ??
Insas networth has been growing every yr non stop for about 10 yrs...that is value creation mah....!!
Insas hold net cash more than Rm 300m...that means their balance sheet is more prudent than QL which has high borrowing loh...!!
People like Philip & 3iii don understand margin of safety investment, surely their comment are false & misleading unlike raider mah...!!
Insas with NTA Rm 2.54 and u can buy for Rm 0.82 & its networth is already there & growing every year non stop...why do u want to speculate in uncertain growth stock paying a huge premium... like my uncle speculate on 4 ekor.... who buy number 5354 hoping that it will come out loh..!!
Dear all, Listen to the wisdom of the most intelligent and CANTEEEEEKK leno and Insas. So get away from the keyboard and enjoy the weekend with family.
Even so the consolidation The points is insas still fall back to coffee shop story mah...insas did not really lose monies on buying into dgsb not like what philip had describe mah.....!!
THERE IS NO VALUE DESTRUCTION LOH...!!
" Insas Bhd has acquired a 19.91% stake in Diversified Gateway Solutions Bhd (DGSB) via direct business transaction from Omesti Bhd for RM12.83 million cash or 4.75 sen per DGSB share. " If the answer is value destruction, then it doesn't matter how much the nta of INSAS is because the CEO will just gamble it all away."
USE UR BRAIN AND THINK LOH...SUPPOSE UR FRIEND OPEN COFFEE SHOP AND SPEND RM 120K CAPITAL ON IT...U VISITED HIM ON DAY OF OPENING...U FIND THE LOCATION IS GOOD AND THE FOOD N SERVICE ARE ABOVE UR STANDARD LOH.!
UR FRIEND STILL MAKE A SMALL LOSSES AFTER 3 MTHS OF OPENING, THE PROSPECT IS STILL GOOD BUT UR FRIEND IS IN URGENT NEED OF MONIES , HE PROPOSE TO SELL 30% OF HIS BUSINESS TO U....IS IT FAIR TO PAY 30% BASED ON NET BOOK VALUE OR RM 36K LOH ?? FAIR MAH....USUALLY IT IS DONE THIS WAY....BCOS U DON WANT TO EXPLOIT UR FRIEND which r in need MAH....!!
(S = Qr) Philip he doesn't even know what is consolidation means. Just spout and never check properly. Insas pay 4.75 cent, after 2:1 consolidation become 9.5. but share price drop to 9 cents. Smart insas. Buy loss making company. you think can get 100% gain?
Stockraider, investing not for you. You think you got 250K to play play with a stock? Better go back borrow more money from your dad la.
I think stockraider knew about Insas bought over DGSB, he probably overlooked at the share consolidation 2:1. After consolidated 9.5s and now 9 is not too bad too.
ICAP is a good fund? I thought it is a horrible closed ended fund controlled by ttb who gets paid money every year to do nothing. The shareholders the are starting a revolution to remove chairman.
We treat INSAS as a horrible company also?
Book value alone is silly as a judge of a company. It is merely a historic number of what the company has done before, and does nothing to reflect is earning power today or the companies future prospects.
Just because your father rich doesn't exactly guarantee you will do well in the future.
FYI, Warren dropped his book value calculation in his latest annual letter. He realized it is a poor value for intrinsic value in today's world, as many companies with low book value in Berkshire holdings are performing far better (earnings and revenue growth) than his other businesses which is very big on net assets but very little in the way of earnings ( which is very important when you value INSAS).
Net asset per share in vacuum as a measurement tool is silly. 1MDB bought a lot power plant assets from Ananda and ytl.
Big beautiful looking assets.
The IPP contracts don't make much sense though.
I mean think about it, in 2017, using a net asset of more than 1.65 billion dollars, insas managed to earn a mighty 97 million ringgit!. That's like 5+% return on your equity. And I haven't factored in for dilution from ESOS, preferred shares and warrants. Which lowers your return on equity even more...
My son's piggy bank could do better in EPF. And it is always par value rm1 per share.
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Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-23 06:05 | Report Abuse
After you read Warren's letter, you will start to think, do I want to buy INSAS for what it has done with inari IPO in 2011? Or what it is doing today and what it is trying to achieve in 5 years from now.
If investing is about the past, I would be the top20 shareholder in INSAS.
But investing is about investing in the future, and margin of safety does nothing to tell you about the future.
Warren's exact words:
"Too often CEOs seem blind to an elementary reality: The intrinsic value of the shares you give in an acquisition must not be greater than the intrinsic value of the business you receive."
You really need to ask yourself this simple question, INSAS is selling inari shares every quarter. For what purpose? What is it buying with the money? Is it a destruction of value or a creation of value?
If the CEO thinks selling inari shares is worth investing in companies like vigsys, sengenic, numoni and especially the new company acquisition, you have to value the growth of these two companies relatively.
" Insas Bhd has acquired a 19.91% stake in Diversified Gateway Solutions Bhd (DGSB) via direct business transaction from Omesti Bhd for RM12.83 million cash or 4.75 sen per DGSB share. "
If the answer is value destruction, then it doesn't matter how much the nta of INSAS is because the CEO will just gamble it all away.