Posted by iafx > Nov 20, 2013 10:16 AM | Report Abuse
@member41, note the sales keep dropping and not isolated to this qtr.
@cosway, for that, u can use net-net working capital to ignore this in order to come out a "beautified biz value". my goodness...
u r one good guy, but their $ their choice. anyone who is interested, try download latest qtr report goto page 8 as a start. this is certainly not nnwc meant for.
btw, congratulate those who earned big real $ out of this ;)
If I were you who knows nuts about any finance and investment, I would keep my big mouth shut instead of trying to ridicule others.
"this is certainly not nnwc meant for."? Tell us in precise explanation why do you understand about Graham net net valuation. I bet you know nothing, absolutely nothing. Kosong!
kcchongnz, I checked again yr earlier cal. U did not add any % of PPE N iNVETMT Prop (0%) to arrive at yr N/N Working Cap/share of 0.294. Yr NOS of 773,357M includes the Treasury shares of 64,959,800 shares which not in circulation.
To cal BV, if I were to just take the Equity/NOS, I might inflate the BV from what's it's really worth (Intangibles, like Goodwill n Trademarks might not fetch its NBV in the event of a break-up). So, better to exclude Intangibles in BV cal.
I agree with, though, that the PPE might not be worth The NBV shown. Better to give, say, 70% value to its NBV.
What lobang? Tell us specifically what lobang you are talking about. If you have balls at all, let us go to the below link purposely set up for our discussion about finance and investment.
Posted by iafx > Nov 20, 2013 11:18 AM | Report Abuse
base on yr postings in this thread, u r clearly BIAS and DISHONEST.
Ans : All the time, Kcchongnz substantiate with facts and figures. It is only you talk without facts and figures. Ask you to swear, you disappeared. Please be fair to others, show the proof if he is dishonest. Thank you.
KC No need to get worked up by such character. Either missed the boat or defensive. Did not pay much attention to rubbish..and did not loose my energy.. haha
dear otb, talking about u.... hahahhahaaa... yr posts drift even more, from buy high sell higher to buy slow sell fast etc etc... aiyoyo hahahhahahaaaa... u switch stories even faster than the auntie.
siapa curi-tipu, siapa suka swear here swear there, only liar likes other to swear.
don't talk only, use the *famous 5 chop (or yard?) sticks or FCF to scrutinize this counter, download the latest qtr report, see how cash is generated, see page 8 performance review. see for yourself if there is BIAS and DISHONEST.
note this counter is related to troubled pmind, too. this is not a buy/sell call, pmcorp price still green as v speak, this is merely sharing a neutral view, yr $ yr choice!!
Posted by iafx > Nov 20, 2013 11:57 AM | Report Abuse don't talk only, use the *famous 5 chop (or yard?) sticks or FCF to scrutinize this counter, download the latest qtr report, see how cash is generated, see page 8 performance review. see for yourself if there is BIAS and DISHONEST. note this counter is related to troubled pmind, too. this is not a buy/sell call, pmcorp price still green as v speak, this is merely sharing a neutral view, yr $ yr choice!!
That is why I said you don't know what is Graham net net valuation. You have no clue of what I am talking about. You have no clue about finance and investment. You are making a bloody fool of yourself.
Not only that, you have no clue about what ColdEye's 5 yardsticks (please don't criticize ColdEye with your chopsticks) are. Don't agree with me? I challenge you to use ColdEye's 5 yardsticks to evaluate PM Corp.
You have no idea how to read income statement and balance sheet, not to say cash flow statement.
@member41, who is drawing a fight? u c for yourself. enough talking, juz use the *famous 5 chop (or yard?) sticks or FCF to scrutinize this counter, download the latest qtr report, see how cash is generated, see page 8 performance review. zero div, potential troubled mgmt. linked, large pile of "mystery" cash deposit... while many complaint about china counter having flaw account, sigh!
see for yourself if there is BIAS and DISHONEST, enough say... what a waste of time to a sunny day
iafx, u better take challenge from Kcchongnz, since you sound like u know fundamental. Don't be coward, just be brave to speak out urself said actually u really don;t know the real meaning of income statement, balance sheet & cash flow...
It is nothing to be shame u don't know. I think I also don't know, but maybe better than u.
A very fair statement from david. This has nothing to do with his posts and why did you ask him to read his posts?
It is my accusation that you know nothing about financial statements. It is a strong statement from me you know. Why don't dare to take the challenge since you like to call me dishonest, tipu etc, just because I posted something you can't even understand? No balls ah?
david, I agree with you. You are much much better than him, any time.
jchong,good afternoon.still buying more share on pmcorp. good luck. for me is "game over" as mention to ayamtua yesterday. will only up a cent or two and then prolong sideway(unless and until there is capital reduction cash payment ).this CASH payment is a MILLION DOLLAR question anyway; the truth will be out end-december.Have we ask ourselves this question? will the TAN SRI give back the cash available to shareholders? LOOK at the very BAD deal between MUI/PMCORP then when RM1.067b loan from pmcorp to MUI.the RM266m from pmcorp to PMI.pmcorp investment in unquoted share in CCM(huge losses).DEAR FORUMERS, this is personal views between me and johnchong and would sincerely from the bottom of my heart offer my humble apology if have indeed offended any peoples/friends in my previous posting.good luck and happy trading.
Mike, thanks for your concern but not to worry as PMC/MUI is only in my 10% portion of my trading/investing 90/10 portfolio). My opinion only and NO offence to anybody, this will be a slow but steady counter from now on, after the recent euphoria, intuitively. Patience pays hopefully here. Ha ha.
From the results, set aside the one off gain on selling of PPE, we can see the Export sales is catching up, increase a lot, probably in Singapore as per Calvin the sales in Singapore is good. But overall, much effort are needed to be on par with last year revenue.
The operating cash flow also improved, seems that the money that they received is from selling their products. With high sales without getting cash also equal to zero.
Regarding the cash and balance disclosed in accounts, even though it is from China, auditors must get confirmation from bank (whether is oversea or local bank) before it can be disclosed to public. Unless the banker from China helps the client to create fraudulent bank figures.
If shareholders are uncomfortable with the bank figures, request a due diligent on the cash and bank deposited in China then.
Posted by mktwatch > Nov 20, 2013 11:05 AM | Report Abuse kcchongnz, I checked again yr earlier cal. U did not add any % of PPE N iNVETMT Prop (0%) to arrive at yr N/N Working Cap/share of 0.294. Yr NOS of 773,357M includes the Treasury shares of 64,959,800 shares which not in circulation. To cal BV, if I were to just take the Equity/NOS, I might inflate the BV from what's it's really worth (Intangibles, like Goodwill n Trademarks might not fetch its NBV in the event of a break-up). So, better to exclude Intangibles in BV cal. I agree with, though, that the PPE might not be worth The NBV shown. Better to give, say, 70% value to its NBV.
mktwatch, you are right. Excellent analysis.
Yes, I didn't put any value on the PPE at all and there is quite a fair amount of it. Maybe you can use 50% of its value. I ignored investment properties also because it is a small amount. But rightfully it should be there, even at 100%.
I also didn't take into consideration of the treasury shares. You are right here again.
The end result is my Graham net net valuation is even more conservative with the above left out.
Calvin Why MANAGEMENT spending time and energy on the unproductive processes of returning the money, reduce the par value and then combine 4 into 1 to make par M$1? We do not measure the intrinsic value by par value. Instead of returning the money, use it ASAP to upgrade and get new machinery and equipment to get better and fruitful results.
Apply "MAKE IT HAPPEN" slogan. You will hear less criticism.
Am practical and my 40+ engineers learn that and now only show me results even sometimes it seems impossible. I provide resources and support and they come back with results not problems. They know "Make it Happen" from..... Haha
kcchong, good afternoon. could you please look through your crystalball once again, does the intrinsic value of 6.40 for ZHULIAN still stand(your comments somewhere in september).If yes I'll buy some today.thank you.
Posted by mikekong55 > Nov 20, 2013 02:57 PM | Report Abuse
kcchong, good afternoon. could you please look through your crystalball once again, does the intrinsic value of 6.40 for ZHULIAN still stand(your comments somewhere in september).If yes I'll buy some today.thank you.
Mike I got no crystal ball. When did I say the intrinsic value of Zhulian is RM6.40? The first time I talked about it, Zhulian share price was not even RM2.00, and that was less than a year ago, I think. So now Zhulian is 5+ already. What do you think?
Well I don't know how good is its overseas business, esp in Indonesia. It must be very exceptionally good to garner that kind of valuation now. I am in no position to know anything about it.
One thing we old timers must always remember, no matter how good a company is, it won't be a good investment if it is too expensive. In investing, risk means the probability that one won't get the return he wants in an investment, or even lose money. The higher the price in relation to its perceived intrinsic value, the higher the risk.
And one should never fall in love for a stock or company. We invest to get as much return as possible, not courting for a wife.
kcchong i just saw your post in the ZHULIAN forum you posted that time price above 3.00. did mention something about growth 23% for 5 years. never mind chech and let you know. thank you
Mike, you are right about my posting. Only if you believe Zhulian's earings can grow by 23% for the next 5 years. And I also mentioned that it will be a great and difficult feat and i won't bet on that. Last 5 years growth is only 10% a year.
Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 24, 2013 03:34 PM | Report Abuse X
The mathematics of discount cash flow analysis is exact. If I were to use the last year's growth in earnings of 23% for the next 5 years, and a required return of 10%, the intrinsic value of Zhulian will be RM6.40.
Alas, I don't have a crystal ball and I won't know its future growth rate. to me if a company can compound its growth rate of 15%, that is already very liberal, and I won't use that rate to justify my buying or even holding of a stock.
Zhulian has a compounded annual growth rate of 10% for the last 5 years. In my opinion, if it can sustain that kind of growth rate every year for the next 5 years, it is already quite a feat.
The high growth rate of a company cannot carry on forever. it eventually will slow down because of many factors; size, competitions, economic cycle etc.
mikekong55, so happy to see zhulian still going up despite klse fall by 10.12 points. They going very well in Thailand & some market share in Indonesia. If they going to well in new Myammar market, I think I would eventually surpass Amway that only emphasize in Malaysia & Brunei. Eventhough their growth rate might be slowed down in future, but that only makes the share price grow at a slower rate or stable. Atleast safe & won't worry of riding roller coaster up & down. Actually, their revenue & net profit is much higher than Amway. Just that they have a large number of shares, makes eps lower compared to Amway. Today, market analysis set DSonic tp RM11 from RM7.50 now. DSonic revenue & net profit is nothing more than Zhulian.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
kcchongnz
6,684 posts
Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-11-20 10:34 | Report Abuse
Posted by iafx > Nov 20, 2013 10:16 AM | Report Abuse
@member41, note the sales keep dropping and not isolated to this qtr.
@cosway, for that, u can use net-net working capital to ignore this in order to come out a "beautified biz value". my goodness...
u r one good guy, but their $ their choice. anyone who is interested, try download latest qtr report goto page 8 as a start. this is certainly not nnwc meant for.
btw, congratulate those who earned big real $ out of this ;)
If I were you who knows nuts about any finance and investment, I would keep my big mouth shut instead of trying to ridicule others.
"this is certainly not nnwc meant for."? Tell us in precise explanation why do you understand about Graham net net valuation. I bet you know nothing, absolutely nothing. Kosong!