Posted by Want2MakeMoney > 2022-06-12 14:23 | Report Abuse

US gas prices have surged to record highs of $5 a gallon, hitting American drivers hard and creating a political nightmare for President Joe Biden. Analysts say gas prices are much higher than they ordinarily would be, when compared with the price of crude. That's because of what Goldman Sachs has called "unprecedented" bottlenecks at oil refineries, where crude oil is converted into usable products like gas.

Posted by johnny cash > 2022-06-12 14:29 | Report Abuse

HELLO OTB

CAN WE MEET OUTSIDE FOR A FAIR FIST FIGHT

Posted by Want2MakeMoney > 2022-06-12 14:29 | Report Abuse

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61750251

Never sell now, only if Q2 result koyak again only sell.

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-12 14:34 | Report Abuse

Short term sell off due to FED might raise its cash rate by 0.75.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-seen-raising-us-interest-rates-further-battle-hot-inflation-2022-06-10/

Sell off will happen in the short term, then local FMs will pick it up and goreng again.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-12 14:37 | Report Abuse

Klee last week nonstop hardsell..quote Goldman Sach/macro environment blablabla

In the end, ownself run 1st kikiki

Just ignore this snake oil seller..will BS anything that fits his trading position

Posted by botakpang2 > 2022-06-12 14:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by klee > 2022-06-12 14:48 | Report Abuse

monkeymakers,you are so naive to believe a trader will hold his position when situation changes...lol....i now know you are just a kid....wakaka

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-12 14:51 | Report Abuse

Nothing wrong being trader but good 2 highlight lo snakes like klee

Can just ignore their bias BS

Posted by klee > 2022-06-12 14:55 | Report Abuse

Monkey,have you changed your pampers today?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-12 15:00 | Report Abuse

Probalility :
Your Sample business transaction of HY refers:

Your twin brother's gain or lose in derivative depend on the magnitude of refined and crude price divergence ie widening of narrowing of crack spread.

Let's put some numbers to your illustration.

Your cash transaction :
you sell to me gasoline @usd140/bbl
correspondingly you buy crude USD120/bbl
your crack margin USD20 (140-120)

Your twin brother's future trading :
Your twin brother sell crude @USD120/bbl
His long position 4 weeks ago was @USD120/bbl (assuming no change to crude)
He is breakeven here.

At the same time he buy gasoline @USD140/bbl
His short position 4 weeks ago was @USD130/bbl (ie crack margin was USD10 )
He lost (USD10/bbl) because crack spread has widen to USD20 in cash market.
Your twin brother's suffer bigger derivative lose when crack spread widen from previous month.

On the contrary, your twin brother make gain when crack spread become smaller than previous month.

Make sense ?

Posted by probability > 2022-06-12 15:12 | Report Abuse

Exactly John...

My brother hedged at USD10/brl a month back right.
Now the net effect of my cash market transaction margin of USD20/brl and his lost at -10USD/brl had returned us back to the original hedging value of USD10/brl.

Thats why the margin after hedging gain or loss always lag 1 month.

If my brother had made gain on his Futures trading, my cash market margin would have shrunk by the same magnitude bringing our combined effective margin back to USD 10/brl again.


Posted by Johnzhang > Jun 12, 2022 3:00 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > 2022-06-12 15:21 | Report Abuse

Thats why we can expect HY Q2 results to be exactly as per market opportunity without hedging as it is for Mar, Apr, May performance, i.e lagging 1 month.

On Q1 22, it was showing the performance of Dec 21', Jan 22', Feb 22' crack spread with the added loss from probably buying a lot of russian oil in Feb 22' (due to its discounted price) and getting rejected by Shell & Malaysian government in Mar 22'.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-12 15:27 | Report Abuse

Assuming gasoline price go up USD10 per month for next 2 months while crude stay averaging USD120 (ie no change) , your realised crack margin is again negated by USD10 derivative loss for the next 2 month.
So, for 1 qtr sales your realised crack margin averaging (10+20+30)/3 =20
The spot crack margin is (20+30+40) = 30 (without hedging)
The opportunity loss can be substantial when crack spread continue to trend higher.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-12 15:37 | Report Abuse

But the absolute profit can still be very high after the hedging loss.
--------------------------------------------------
Assuming gasoline price go up USD10 per month for next 2 months while crude stay averaging USD120 (ie no change) , your realised crack margin is again negated by USD10 derivative loss for the next 2 month.
So, for 1 qtr sales your realised crack margin averaging (10+20+30)/3 =20
The spot crack margin is (20+30+40) = 30 (without hedging)
The opportunity loss can be substantial when crack spread continue to trend highe

Posted by probability > 2022-06-12 15:40 | Report Abuse

yes, it lags by 1 month

HY will be able to realize Mar, Apr and May for Q2 and their crack spread is very strong (refer chart on the article shown).

Apr, May and June averages about the same


Posted by Johnzhang > Jun 12, 2022 3:27 PM | Report Abuse

Assuming gasoline price go up USD10 per month for next 2 months while crude stay averaging USD120 (ie no change) , your realised crack margin is again negated by USD10 derivative loss for the next 2 month.
So, for 1 qtr sales your realised crack margin averaging (10+20+30)/3 =20
The spot crack margin is (20+30+40) = 30 (without hedging)
The opportunity loss can be substantial when crack spread continue to trend higher.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-12 15:41 | Report Abuse

Profit for any qtr will be explosive when crack spread reaches plateau at high level like it is now .

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-12 15:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-12 15:44 | Report Abuse

@probability,
It's clear. Thanks

Posted by probability > 2022-06-12 15:46 | Report Abuse

great to hear that John..

Posted by Johnzhang > Jun 12, 2022 3:44 PM | Report Abuse

@probability,
It's clear. Thanks

Posted by klee > 2022-06-12 15:49 | Report Abuse

Hahaha this monkey kid thinks his opinion matters.NATO lah you.No action talk only.
Me only post for fun anyway.Anyone win doesnt share with me,lose dont blame me.
Such simple stuff also dunno.You think ppl will thank you ka kid?LMAO.

Posted by stockwin > 2022-06-12 15:52 | Report Abuse

In short Q2 2022 PAT is already in the bag. Meaning explosive. What ever hedging activities in June 2022 will be captured in Q3 2022 result.

Posted by probability > 2022-06-12 15:53 | Report Abuse

you hit the nail

Posted by stockwin > Jun 12, 2022 3:52 PM | Report Abuse

In short Q2 2022 PAT is already in the bag. Meaning explosive. What ever hedging activities in June 2022 will be captured in Q3 2022 result.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-12 15:54 | Report Abuse

Nobody cares Q2 alrdy..by now should focus Q3 onwards..market forward looking

Learn from glove collapse..share price collapsing even when company making record profits

P/s: sorry klee i not interested play with snakes

Posted by klee > 2022-06-12 18:15 | Report Abuse

Why until now nobody thank the 'hardworking' monkey kid?LMAO.

Posted by klee > 2022-06-12 18:17 | Report Abuse

Is it cos kiddo day day post same useless stuff?Forgive him la,he just a kiddo wearing pampers.

Posted by VTrade > 2022-06-12 18:36 | Report Abuse

Haha…money brainwash you…
Yes…yes… war end… no crack no crack…
Money waterfall to you…

Joking saje..

Posted by VTrade > 2022-06-12 18:40 | Report Abuse

Kita joke joke…
Haha
By the way
Price is seem at the moneymaker side
No doubt still chart macam turun la..
Haha

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-12 18:43 | Report Abuse

this MM managed to bring down Hengyuan price so that everyone can buy!

Posted by klee > 2022-06-12 18:51 | Report Abuse

Vtrade n investor,you two must thank MM to show appreciation.Say thank you to acknowledge him.Make him shiok.LMAO.

Posted by johnny cash > 2022-06-12 19:04 | Report Abuse

TOMORROW EARTHQUAKE DAY AT BURSA BLOODBATH

Posted by johnny cash > 2022-06-12 19:05 | Report Abuse

EVERYTHING BLOODBATH NOTHING WILL BE SPARED

Posted by klee > 2022-06-12 19:25 | Report Abuse

Index puts will huat.Anyway this type is too deep for MM to grasp.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-06-12 19:26 | Report Abuse

It seems Ukraine is about to lose the war and Russia may decide to end its so called "special military operation" in a month or two.
What would be the effects on oil price if it happens then?

Posted by VTrade > 2022-06-12 20:11 | Report Abuse

Good question startofthebull
any from the floor able to give oppion on this

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-12 20:13 | Report Abuse

Klee soo bitter after he panic sell friday kikiki

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-12 20:14 | Report Abuse

Sure oil collapse lo when war ends..no more war premium

But HY will collapse long b4 war ends

Posted by ChloeTai > 2022-06-12 21:48 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow global red blood bath including Heng Yuan.

Posted by ChloeTai > 2022-06-12 21:54 | Report Abuse

Koon Yew Yin said Heng Yuan will hit all time high but it is like dumping money into the salt water sea. Eat salty fish and you can stand the salty taste,

Posted by mf > 2022-06-12 22:34 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average

31,392.79

-880.00

2.72%

Nasdaq

NASDAQ Composite

11,340.02

-414.20

3.52%

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2022-06-12 22:51 | Report Abuse

Only if wars were so easy to end like a switch. So what war ends? My guess Russian oil embargo will continue for years to come like how they did it on Iran. LOL

MoneyMakers

Sure oil collapse lo when war ends..no more war premium

But HY will collapse long b4 war ends

Posted by VTrade > 2022-06-12 23:14 | Report Abuse

Wah this money maker memang eager in money making
Dont know what stock he holding…

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-06-12 23:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by apple168 > 2022-06-13 06:10 | Report Abuse

Get ready the popcorns and enjoy the HY bloodbath! We will continue to short HY! TP below 5.0 this week!

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-13 08:01 | Report Abuse

rr88 and apple 168 same person.... kakacaucau

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-06-13 08:02 | Report Abuse

Short term sell off due to FED might raise its cash rate by 0.75....some foreign funds will sell

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-seen-raising-us-interest-rates-...

Sell off will happen in the short term, then local FMs will pick it up and goreng again.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-13 08:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by goody99 > 2022-06-13 08:51 | Report Abuse

I will sell now (at least partially) and buy back later. Same with Petron

Posted by williamtkb > 2022-06-13 08:59 | Report Abuse

Are you ready for sales?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-13 09:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by masterkevin212 > 2022-06-13 09:09 | Report Abuse

Buy high sell low master OTB really making people from rich to poor