Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-07-18 23:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-07-18 23:55 | Report Abuse

Main point very simple

Oil producers have pricing power..refiners dont make money

Thats why cannot compare Hibiscs & HY lo..2 diff biz model

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-18 23:55 | Report Abuse

That is why I said, you don't have any real idea of oil business lah. just because you read the book titled Oil business for dummies, does not make you an expert loh. Haiya.

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-18 23:58 | Report Abuse

like when oil was traded in negative territory... refinery set that price kah? take oil give money for other people to take away kah? Haiya.

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-18 23:59 | Report Abuse

I mean oil producer set the negative price kah? Haiya.

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 00:00 | Report Abuse

I don't see refinery selling their product in negative territory. ada lah? Haiya.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-07-19 00:05 | Report Abuse

Correct lo oil went neg (-) @ basically producers paid customers to take oil b’coz producers didnt want handle storage costs etc

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 00:09 | Report Abuse

Precisely. and what is the cost of producing the oil? free meh? you think producer can survive if the oil is selling around USD13/bbls? they will close their tap. same as refineries. low spread, they do maintenance, shutdown or better known as turnaround. Haiya.

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 00:13 | Report Abuse

I have mentioned before... on this planet earth, the processing capacity or license to refine oil is around 88m barrels per day. you think this planet earth need 88m bbls per day or not? the refineries also can influence the oil price by processing more or less lah wei. not just the producer. sigh.

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 00:19 | Report Abuse

now, we come back to the original topic. hengyuan... I would say they are not the best but there is an opportunity for trading. see... I say trading and not investing Hor. so be careful with that. if one want to invest, I would believe Petron would be a better choice. at least they don't need to send money back to their motherland. ada faham BOH? Haiya.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-07-19 00:21 | Report Abuse

If refineries try process less to increase price of refined oil/widen crack spread, producers will just increase oil price (reduce supply) to maximise profit

Producers have ultimate pricing power..refiners always lose

Refinery best biz strategy is to maximise production/output even with thin crack spread

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 00:23 | Report Abuse

how can the producer increase price when the supply of crude is more than being process? they will need to produce less. and less will also tighten their revenue lah. all tie in together one mah.

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 00:24 | Report Abuse

it is like the chicken and egg question. which one come first. there are no answer as both are co dependence on each other. Haiya.

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 00:25 | Report Abuse

you can go and ask any friend in refinery lah. if the spread become too thin, will the refinery still be processing at maximum capacity or not. that... my friend... is the real scenario.

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 00:26 | Report Abuse

and this is not a volume game like those China manufacturing plant. totally different ballgame.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-07-19 00:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 00:31 | Report Abuse

Okay lah MM. you go ahead with your believe. I have tried to explain to you the real scenario and what action taken by refiners. up to you to believe what you want. hahaha.

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 00:35 | Report Abuse

One last statement... refiner process more, what happen? surplus in product which will make the product cheaper and thus contribute to even less spread. lagi cepat chap lap. Wakaka.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-07-19 00:39 | Report Abuse

This is how oil market work lo..just u never understand

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 00:43 | Report Abuse

Hahaha... whatever lah MM. let the reader gauge. not for me to judge who has better understanding of oil business. I not sonego want to judge myself. anyway, I am no expert even having involve in oil business for 3 decades Nia. Wakaka.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-07-19 00:47 | Report Abuse

Working in oil sector doesnt mean u understand how oil market works

Just like bankers dont understand whole financial system

Doing ur job & understanding how global markets work totally 2 different things

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 00:50 | Report Abuse

Hahaha... as I said, I am not an egoistic person who wanted to make myself look like an expert. not sure about you. You go ahead and believe what you want. not going to make me richer anyway. Wakaka.

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2022-07-19 03:26 | Report Abuse

stingray and moneymakers... shd find a room, lock and throw away the key :-) ... make love not war

Posted by mf > 2022-07-19 05:48 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average

31,072.61

-215.65

0.68%

Nasdaq

NASDAQ Composite

11,360.04

-92.37

0.80%

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2022-07-19 07:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by klee > 2022-07-19 07:22 | Report Abuse

MM.No need write so much.Nobody give a f what you think.

Posted by VTrade > 2022-07-19 08:15 | Report Abuse

“Love Debate”
On operation not price.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-07-19 09:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ty Y > 2022-07-19 09:33 | Report Abuse

Be careful , RM 19.2 = speak louder 3 times ..

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-07-19 09:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-07-19 09:33 | Report Abuse

I will continue to repeat this news non-stop in Hengyuan forum.
A bad heart person will never win in the stock market.
A bad heart person will continue to lose in the stock market.

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-07-19 09:43 | Report Abuse

Commodities play and get ready to SELL if big boys are kind enough to create the 4.30-4.50 range again. Speculate and crack the price all you want here. Bursa value and stock volume already diminished for the time being. Any spike warrants liquidation if you are still stranded. Oil price must find it's economic level or else nothing will benefit the stock market and consumers for long run. Having said that, one must give credit to those who have predicted the share price regardless what sort of strategies or game plan put across. It's 4.22 and not 7.22 when the oil price trading at the peak and your lousy theories how bullish the company was once upon a time. Your loss is someone gain.

Posted by goody99 > 2022-07-19 10:12 | Report Abuse

Next Federal Reserve meeting :
July 26-27

Posted by Star8888 > 2022-07-19 10:15 | Report Abuse

Crack spread drop 20% now. Sell Heng Yuan and Petronm.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-07-19 10:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Star8888 > 2022-07-19 11:33 | Report Abuse

Crack spread drop 20% now. Sell Heng Yuan and Petronm.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-07-19 11:53 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan is best for trading. I already posted my explanations yesterday

Not that many years ago (2016) I was actively trading the US options market but almost thoroughly gave up due to time difference stress. I do still trade it but barely

When news broke of Russia gathering along Ukraine border, I placed call options on Valero (VLO ticker). They’re an oil refiner. I had made tidy profits on VLO in 2016 before and they were all call options and never exercised

Commodity plays require constant research but, since I’m getting on a bit, I have just 3 such counters. All the best!

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 11:55 | Report Abuse

Anthony, you got that 100% right. best of luck.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-07-19 12:41 | Report Abuse

Walao crack spread collapse to usd12 (64% drop from peak usd33 - less than 3weeks)

Just yesterday explain oil can stay high usd100 but crack spread possible collapse to usd10

Posted by probability > 2022-07-19 13:03 | Report Abuse

to all investors here including Zhuge_Liang, suggest to stay silent till the Q2 results are out...

Those giving misleading speculation by selectively showing crack spread drop of gasoline, harping on hedging uncertainty etc will continue to do so as long as you comment here

The refining margin is a composite - collective crack of Diesel, Gasoline, Kerosene, LNG etc which is currently having spot value exceeding 20 USD/brl at south east asian market.

Complex refiner like HY has the ability to selectively increase output of diesel in favor of gasoline

I bet naysayers here do not know the crack spread of Diesel and Kerosene

Take note even if the composite value drops to 13 USD/brl, HY will earn EPS exceeding RM 1 per QTR! Exchange rate from USD to RM is increasingly in favor.

The actual refining margin data will be disclosed when the results are out at end of Aug'.

Till then appreciate your silence and you will be immensely rewarded. Thanks

Posted by StingRay > 2022-07-19 13:27 | Report Abuse

probability, may I add one more thing for your info. HY don't use Brent crude which are selling at a premium. Hope that would give you some idea of whatever spread some people are calculating. That's it and will no longer comment on this. Best of luck. cheers.

Posted by Russel > 2022-07-19 13:47 | Report Abuse

Zhuge & OTB SHALL NOT stay silent, naysayer was just a few, but several thousand genuine traders who was relatively inexperienced might want to read and share info on the counter they would like to trade / invest and this was what a forum mean for...


__________________________________________________________________________
probability

to all investors here including Zhuge_Liang, suggest to stay silent till the Q2 results are out...

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-07-19 14:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-07-19 14:00 | Report Abuse

I will continue to repeat this news non-stop in Hengyuan forum.
A bad heart person will never win in the stock market.
A bad heart person will continue to lose in the stock market.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-07-19 14:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-07-19 14:28 | Report Abuse

Last time all quote SG Mogas record high usd33

Now Mogas collapse to usd12 - want use diff benchmark (diesel/kerosene) aiyoyo

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-07-19 14:32 | Report Abuse

HY riding oil price rally but fundamentals (crack spread) actually getting WORSE

Historically fair value should only be rm3

P/s: HY buy raw material in USD..so actually suffer forex loss (weak RM)

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-07-19 14:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-07-19 14:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2022-07-19 20:34 | Report Abuse

Terus memantau dan tunggu keputusan Q2 ...