Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-09-06 18:33 | Report Abuse

Hight pbt will offset hedging loss
Most refinery got no choice of hedging oil due to high volume
If oil prices go higher hedging will turn into gain instead of loss
Don’t listen to one side of the story

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-06 18:38 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-06 18:39 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-06 18:40 | Report Abuse

You simply kacau me with vulgar words when i am not around

Why????

Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-09-06 18:41 |

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Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-09-06 18:45 | Report Abuse

I pity all ikan bilis investor all cut loss
Due to easily carried away by this naysayers scares mongering and spamming false and lie info

Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-09-06 18:45 | Report Abuse

Will regret soon

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-09-06 19:03 | Report Abuse

Hopefully lessons will be learned why a substantial shareholder sold until they are no longer substantial shareholder

It’s summarised as “We took profit. We can then trade w/o the company needing to announce our shareholding changes”

We’re not talking about a shareholder selling from over 10% (EPF) or 6% (PNB) to 2-3% in around 6-7 years. These two funds don’t do that if they believe in a company. EPF keeps buying Dialog for interest’s sake

Anyway, peace. I understand. I want all stocks to go up but it’s very clear to me HY simply has bad fundamentals. In fact, their fundamentals keeps deteriorating qoqoqoq

The super profits and its share price… there you have it…

Posted by Investing_Bursa > 2022-09-06 19:05 | Report Abuse

As of 31/3/2022, ASB owns 10.6mil shares of Hengyuan, EFP has 7.59mil shares . EPF added during the period of review .

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-06 19:34 | Report Abuse

Walao soo many come out after market close..must be panic see oil collapsing

Just relax - alot can change when US market open

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-06 19:39 | Report Abuse

Did anthonytkh follow PNB to invest in Sapura Energy Berhad in year 2018 since PNB increase it holding to 40% hence its fundamentals must be very good?

Kuala Lumpur, 25 September 2018
Sapura Energy Berhad (“Sapura Energy” or “The Group”) has obtained firm support from two major shareholders, Permodalan Nasional Berhad (“PNB”) and Sapura Technology Sdn Bhd (“Sapura Technology”), by means of letters of irrevocable undertaking for their proposed issuance of rights shares with warrants and rights issue of Islamic redeemable convertible preference shares (“RCPS-i”).

The Group has received commitments from Maybank Investment Bank and Credit Suisse to underwrite any remaining open portion of rights shares not undertaken by shareholders.

The rights issue entails raising up to RM4 billion, of which up to RM3 billion will be through the rights issue of ordinary shares with free warrants and up to RM1 billion through the rights issue of RCPS-i.

PNB and its associated funds (“PNB Group”) will subscribe to its full entitlement rights shares with warrants, and excess shares with warrants not taken up, resulting in the PNB Group having shareholdings of 40 per cent of the post-rights enlarged share capital. In addition, the PNB Group will subscribe in full to the RCPS-i of RM1 billion. Upon completion of the rights issue, the PNB Group may emerge as the largest single shareholder.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-06 19:47 |

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Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-09-06 19:48 | Report Abuse

Sslee, I only entered Bursa market in 2020. I was trading US options market before that but couldn’t handle the time difference health stress

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-06 19:49 |

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Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-06 19:51 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-06 19:51 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-09-06 19:57 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-09-06 20:01 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-09-06 20:03 | Report Abuse

Enough curse for today.
Thank you.

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2022-09-06 20:06 | Report Abuse

SSLee,

Anthonytkh thinks the fundamentals of Perak Transit are good.

The bulk of Ptrans revenue is from Maksima Timur, Rezeki Megajaya and Century Edge Group, and they are all fake.

The dividends are issued using bonds by UOB, not via earnings.

My postings are here:
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/forum/forum-thread/800005273?p=221
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/forum/forum-thread/800005273?p=222

p.s. I said that I will report to SC but kept procrastinating. Will do soon.

Posted by Sslee > 12 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Did anthonytkh follow PNB to invest in Sapura Energy Berhad in year 2018 since PNB increase it holding to 40% hence its fundamentals must be very good?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-06 20:09 | Report Abuse

OTB please stop the cursing, you do not need to stoop to his level.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-06 20:11 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-09-06 20:11 | Report Abuse

@Bob, no...thats how hedging with futures works. They simply know they have refining ability to produce before the maturity. The hedging amount is only 20% oh their throughput.

Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 6, 2022 8:08 PM | Report Abuse

In other words, they are Hedging without Goods......isn't that Gambling???

Posted by probability > 2022-09-06 20:13 | Report Abuse

FCF will blast up next qtr....

why? Hedging GAIN from gasoline.

Your futures market cash IN FLOW is higher than your physical market cash OUT FLOW...


Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 6, 2022 7:51 PM | Report Abuse

The present market cap of Hengyuan = 1.458 billion.
PAT for the first half of FY2022 = 715 million.
I believe the PAT for second half of FY2022 = 1.3 billion.
I also believe total PAT for FY2022 = 2.0 billion which is 542 million more than the present market cap.
My sifu taught me the 5 most important FA criteria to assess the FA report for the first half of FY2022.
1.) Growth > 917% better than the previous first half year.
2.) Free cash flow = -16 million. However, Hengyuan is still able to make an operating profit before changes in working capital of RM 939.171 million in the first half of FY2022.
3.) PER = 1.73 very good.
4.) ROE = 45% which is very high.
5.) EV/EBIT = 2.13 very good.

I can see the free cash flow is = -16 million which is not a positive free cash flow.
The rest of criteria are excellent.
I will say the fundamental of Hengyuan is very good after the first half result of FY2022.
Is there any stock listed in KLSE has PER = 1.73 and EV/EBIT = 2.13 ?
The answer is no. You cannot find any stock with such low PER and EV/EBIT.
I still conclude the fundamental of Hengyuan is very good.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-06 20:13 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-09-06 20:16 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > 5 minutes ago | Report Abuse
OTB please stop the cursing, you do not need to stoop to his level.
----------
Sslee, I am sorry.
I will repeat that and I will not stop.
I never attack any person in I3.
I just return back the nonsense attack.
I will not tolerate it anymore.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-06 20:18 |

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Posted by PSAi3alert > 2022-09-06 20:20 | Report Abuse

Probability,

Where did you get the 20% hedging number?

If hedges economic relationship were to be 100% effective, the entire capacity will need to be hedge.


https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=215677&name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS
[In refining margin swap hedges, ineffectiveness may arise if there is a change in delivery date of crude oil, change in volume of hedged items or if there is a change in credit risk of the Company or the derivative counterparty. As all critical terms matched in the current and previous financial year, the economic relationship was 100% effective. There was no ineffectiveness during the financial year in relation to refining margin swap hedges.]

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probability

@Bob, no...thats how hedging with futures works. They simply know they have refining ability to produce before the maturity. The hedging amount is only 20% oh their throughput.

Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 6, 2022 8:08 PM | Report Abuse

In other words, they are Hedging without Goods......isn't that Gambling???

2 minutes ago


.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-06 20:24 | Report Abuse

if they are hedging 18 million barrels distribute over 24 month that like 2 million barrel hedged every qtr for a plant that produce 10 million barrels...

Its calculated risk. If the plant got into fire and it has prolonged shutdown, they can always clear their hedge position on the market albeit with small loss or even gain.

risk is too low

Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 6, 2022 8:18 PM | Report Abuse

Of course they know their production handling capacity. But to Hedge without goods and for futures that are uncertain....is pure Gambling.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-06 20:27 | Report Abuse

@PSAi3alert, i have share the derivations on the article i made. You share to me where its mention they 100% hedge.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-06 20:28 | Report Abuse

of course Zhuge, i have share my derivation on Q3 gross profit.
Q3, do not expect any hedging loss..

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 6, 2022 8:13 PM | Report Abuse

Sslee, probability and Johnzhang,
I believe the PAT for second half of FY2022 = 1.3 billion.
Is this estimate possible ?

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2022-09-06 20:30 | Report Abuse

Probability,

It's in the policy statements in the annual report.

Link in previous posting.


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probability

@PSAi3alert, i have share the derivations on the article i made. You share to me where its mention they 100% hedge.

1 minute ago

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-06 20:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-06 20:37 | Report Abuse

when you hedge refined products, 100% of the crude amount in barrels is hedged simultaneously

the hedging of 100% is the monthly clearing (physical and futures market interval of 1 month), this is as per the below derivation.

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-06-11-story-h1624320379-HENGYUAN_derivatives_loss_on_Q1_22_completely_clarification.jsp

the hedging of in futures (long term maturity) has a notional amount - this is only utilized on avg 20% every qtr

Posted by probability > 2022-09-06 20:38 | Report Abuse

could be Zhuge, my views are as such because of extraordinary crack in June, would have resulted in huge gain in July..

anyway it does not matter much

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 6, 2022 8:33 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse
of course Zhuge, i have share my derivation on Q3 gross profit.
Q3, do not expect any hedging loss..
-------------
I believe Q3 2022 still has a small hedging loss.
Q4 2022 will have a hedging gain.

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2022-09-06 20:49 | Report Abuse

Probability,

I rationalized it by imagining hedge positions that are being closed for previous positions and being opened for future positions, on a monthly basis.

The marked-to-market derivative losses were high because the crack spread margins were very high on 30th June, and were above the contracted price to sell.

So, come July, Aug, etc, they will just deliver the products at those contracted prices.

However, there are just to many variables to consider.

MM might drive into the refinery in a car full of explosives. Suddenly the options become naked.

(Rare events can happen. The Kobe earthquake on 17 January 1995, took Nick Leeson's short straddle positions into tailspin and total losses were £827 million.)

.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-06 20:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-06 20:52 | Report Abuse

Musical chairs on Company's bill?..........

Posted by PSAi3alert > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Probability,
I rationalized it by imagining hedge positions that are being closed for previous positions and being opened for future positions, on a monthly basis.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-06 20:55 | Report Abuse

glad you are absorbing fast

in everything there is risk

seriously, if they can break down HY refinery into 100 smaller refinery , i would definitely buy out one mini refinery (take over the company).

where to find 2 qtr payback period?

Posted by PSAi3alert > Sep 6, 2022 8:49 PM | Report Abuse

Probability,

I rationalized it by imagining hedge positions that are being closed for previous positions and being opened for future positions, on a monthly basis.

The marked-to-market derivative losses were high because the crack spread margins were very high on 30th June, and were above the contracted price to sell.

So, come July, Aug, etc, they will just deliver the products at those contracted prices.

However, there are just to many variables to consider.

MM might drive into the refinery in a car full of explosives. Suddenly the options become naked.

(Rare events can happen. The Kobe earthquake on 17 January 1995, took Nick Leeson's short straddle positions into tailspin and total losses were £827 million.)

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2022-09-06 20:55 | Report Abuse

Steven Cohen would have learnt about strong form of market efficiency at Steinberg-Dietrich hall.

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BobAxelrod

Sharks not biting the EPS >2.2 with PER 2.1.......

Only bilis swimming in 2 inches of waters.........

Time is a luxury you cannot afford.

1 minute ago

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-06 20:56 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-06 20:58 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-06 21:00 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-06 21:01 | Report Abuse

MM might drive into the refinery in a car full of explosives. Suddenly the options become naked.

PSAi3alert might be right, so don't put all your eggs in one basket. I feel more safer in Petronm

Posted by tehka > 2022-09-06 21:01 | Report Abuse

Sharks appear like they are not biting. Actually, they are waiting at the side. They are waiting for ppl to give up first before they goreng for the kill. Shark also want to buy cheap. It will come suddenly and quickly

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-06 21:02 | Report Abuse

tehka.....Eagles : Hotel California "you can check out anytime you want, but you can never leave"

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-06 21:03 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse
seriously, if they can break down HY refinery into 100 smaller refinery , i would definitely buy out one mini refinery (take over the company).
where to find 2 qtr payback period?
---------------------
Yes. agreed.
I wish there is a hostile takeover since the share price is too low.
PAT for 2 quarter > the present market cap.
Ridiculous low share price.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-06 21:04 | Report Abuse

M&M, why don't you give it a rest. Better still let's take a side bet. You pull and write the odds for your Swap and price, and we'll make it legal, with money in escrow at Lawyers?

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-09-06 21:08 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-06 21:12 | Report Abuse

BobAxelrod Price won't be seduced to RM4.00 by sweet M&M chocolates, neither would it fly off to space.....
Time is something that is entwined with this tango which you can ill afford

Luckily I invest with my spare money thus time is a luxury I can afford. Looking forward to Q4 result. Hope it will be a profitable wait.