Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-07-03 11:24 | Report Abuse

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman -recommended reading. Think as slow as possible.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-07-03 11:38 | Report Abuse

Oh no, how did someone learn that kind of pseudoscience. Must be from the battles.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-07-03 12:15 | Report Abuse

Should I trust Musang or Daniel Kahneman? - ah, this can be done in fast thinking. Thank you.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-07-03 12:55 | Report Abuse

OIC

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-04 07:58 | Report Abuse

Again with a roundabout Buddha remark. Obviously you have to compare with peers, otherwise how would you know if the company is a good company, a gruesome one, it a value trap if you do not have benchmarks.

How can you value a phone company without first having a benchmark in Huawei, apple and Samsung electronics?

If you do not use industry categorization to value, if you were a banker circle of competence, do you then use your banker mental models of accounting profits and losses only to invest in scentex?

If that is the case, I wish you all the best.

My advice, do not use circle of competence in one industry to benchmark returns in another.

Maybe you should stick to reading and not put money into the stock market. Your investing method would give you too many false positives, aka you won't realize the too good to be true investments, if you don't analyze the competitors and their returns out there.


>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Jul 3, 2019 11:00 AM | Report Abuse

Why does investing has to be "comparing to every similar company in the category"? A dollar of investment is a dollar of investment regardless of whether that dollar is invested in a property stock or a packaging stock, so why do you want to compare [similar] company in the category?

Comparing similar companies in an industry is useful to create contrast, to find out what things a company is doing differently from others, but investing is not bounded by industry categorisation, but circle of competence.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-07-04 08:33 | Report Abuse

Perhaps you didn't read what I wrote clearly enough. I never said one shouldn't compare companies within an industry. Comparison between companies are good to understand business models, competitive advantage, market segments and what not.

But when you take that kind of categorial analysis between companies and bring it into valuation, what do you get? Relative valuation aka poor classification.

Please do wish me all the best. I have never used industry categorisation to value. Value comes from the future cash flow a business can generate, in that sense, industry categorisation is irrelevant. Well that goes back to my Buddha remark, do not categorise companies based on industry when doing valuation i.e Uber is a transport company, it should worth [transport industry peers multiples]. No, Uber is a tech company, it should worth [tech industry peer multiples]. Get the point?

Categorisation is also a problem in position sizing/capital allocation. And that is naturally the case when poor classification influence how one does valuation, which in turn influence how much money goes into a particular position.

"Maybe you should stick to reading and not put money into the stock market." - this sentence reveals you more than the advice itself.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-04 17:34 | Report Abuse

Advice given without experience is simply assumptions.

Posted by leslieroycarter > 2019-08-16 11:29 | Report Abuse

Hold is the answer coz its business model of two main activities , one for affordable housing n second manufacturing will b a watch in market .

Posted by HuatAh8809 > 2019-08-20 08:15 | Report Abuse

Yup, agree

Posted by azhanmatnordin > 2019-08-21 12:00 | Report Abuse

Strange...Owner keep buying, but price moving down

Posted by leslieroycarter > 2019-08-26 16:15 | Report Abuse

2016 given bonus , when will b the next bonus ? Div of 200 for 9000 ringgit share is considered
too low for stock investment unless a special bonus after a few years of continued expansion n increased revenue.

Posted by Ncm88 > 2019-08-30 11:12 | Report Abuse

TGuan post excellent results, expect scientex to do do as well

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-09-01 11:19 | Report Abuse

Unlike TGUAN, most Scientex NP come from property. But expect SCIENTEX to do well anyway

Posted by leslieroycarter > 2019-09-04 09:49 | Report Abuse

i think the price can b supported by major shareholders because of constant buying during dips as shown by the trading done as below....
MR LIM PENG CHEONG 21-Aug-2019 Acquired 347,100 8.186 View Detail
MR LIM PENG CHEONG 21-Aug-2019 Acquired 45,000 8.200 View Detail
MR LIM PENG CHEONG 21-Aug-2019 Acquired 5,000 8.180 View Detail
MR LIM PENG JIN 21-Aug-2019 Acquired 347,100 8.186 View Detail
MR LIM PENG JIN 21-Aug-2019 Acquired 45,000 8.200 View Detail
MR LIM PENG CHEONG 20-Aug-2019 Acquired 500,500 8.257 View Detail
MR LIM PENG CHEONG 20-Aug-2019 Acquired 20,000 8.260 View Detail
MR LIM PENG JIN 20-Aug-2019 Acquired 500,500 8.257 View Detail
MR LIM PENG JIN 20-Aug-2019 Acquired 20,000 8.260 View Detail
MR LIM PENG CHEONG 19-Aug-2019 Acquired 300,000 8.285 View Detail
MR LIM PENG CHEONG 19-Aug-2019 Acquired 20,000 8.277 View Detail
MR LIM PENG JIN 19-Aug-2019 Acquired 300,000 8.285 View Detail
MR LIM PENG JIN 19-Aug-2019 Acquired 20,000 8.277 View Detail
MR LIM PENG CHEONG 16-Aug-2019 Acquired 246,400 8.292 View Detail
MR LIM PENG JIN 16-Aug-2019 Acquired 246,400 8.292 View Detail
MR LIM PENG CHEONG 15-Aug-2019 Acquired 542,400 8.302 View Detail
MR LIM PENG JIN 15-Aug-2019 Acquired 542,400 8.302 View Detail
MR LIM PENG CHEONG 14-Aug-2019 Acquired 705,700 8.360 View Detail
MR LIM PENG JIN 14-Aug-2019 Acquired 705,700 8.360 View Detail
MR ANG KIM SWEE 13-Aug-2019 Acquired 5,000 8.400 View Detail
MR ANG KIM SWEE 13-Aug-2019 Acquired 2,000 8.390 View Detail
MR ANG KIM SWEE 08-Aug-2019 Acquired 5,000 8.446 View Detail
MR ANG KIM SWEE 08-Aug-2019 Acquired 2,000 8.360 View Detail
MR LIM PENG CHEONG 03-Jul-2019 Acquired 1,500 8.640 View Detail
MR LIM PENG CHEONG 03-Jul-2019 Transferred 30,000 - View Detail

Posted by leslieroycarter > 2019-09-04 13:49 | Report Abuse

There r reasons for the major shareholders to keep buying when its price is falling...

Posted by Ncm88 > 2019-09-20 17:07 | Report Abuse

Good closing

Posted by namenisis23 > 2019-09-20 21:23 | Report Abuse

Sudden spike in price, hope to have good result and bonus issue....

Posted by namenisis23 > 2019-09-25 15:26 | Report Abuse

daibochi record revenue....will scientx follow it as well?

Posted by Ncm88 > 2019-09-26 13:34 | Report Abuse

Hualao hoseh want fly how high?

Posted by namenisis23 > 2019-09-26 13:37 | Report Abuse

wah, best quarter ever.... wondering how much it will fly

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-26 14:47 | Report Abuse

strong pofit

Posted by LOLANTO > 2019-09-26 14:57 | Report Abuse

tiu.............result so good also no fly

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-09-26 15:16 | Report Abuse

Absolute amazing result. Upgrade immediately to 10.50

Posted by Ncm88 > 2019-09-26 15:22 | Report Abuse

Sold at 9.00 waiting for retracement

Posted by msart > 2019-09-30 10:21 | Report Abuse

for mid/lone-term investor can consider to buy Scientx. Post good result. As for long term, Scientx is a good company , roe roic > 10%. not very cheap not that expensive ev/ebit 13.9% but who knows, as it still has growth due to its expanding plans. For short-term trader who looks for profit in days, needs to be extra diligent in finding the right price to buy.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-10-01 10:26 | Report Abuse

Scientex targeted $8 bil revenue by 2028 is considered achievable. If based on current's market cap premium over it's current revenue, that would mean Scientex market cap will be around $10.5 bil in 2028. All else equal (P/E unchanged), share price growth should hit 9.5% CAGR.

Based on current profit margin of 10% when $8 bil is achieved, profit for 2028 will be $800 mil +/-, at 15x, which is considered reasonable based on Scientex's ROC, that would value the company at $12 bil, or a share price growth of 11.2% CAGR.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-10-01 10:31 | Report Abuse

But keep in mind the return above doesn't include the dividend payout. Dividend should add another 3% +/- to the return, or around 12.5% - 14.2% p.a, which is close to the return of capital of Scientex.

Posted by 谈何容易 > 2019-10-02 15:14 | Report Abuse

Q @ 8.81

Posted by lhoong > 2019-10-08 09:34 | Report Abuse

bonus coming?

Posted by Lioncity > 2019-10-18 17:06 | Report Abuse

Wow impressive push up, all time high at 9.50, hope this is just the starting !

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-10-18 17:20 | Report Abuse

10.50 no problem

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-10-29 09:42 | Report Abuse

The aggression how both Lim are acquiring Scientex shares are crazy. They already increase their stakes so much over the past 1 decade.

Posted by leslieroycarter > 2019-11-01 16:40 | Report Abuse

Fully valued ...

Posted by James Ng > 2019-11-21 09:54 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/238363.jsp
[转贴] [SCIENTEX BHD：Daibochi集团公司的最新加入进一步扩大了森德的能力和产品组合，从基础薄膜制造到专业薄膜转换；Daibochi最近完成对Mega Printing＆Packaging Sdn Bhd的收购] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-23 13:04 | Report Abuse

Lim is really confident with SCIENTEX

continue buying non stop

Posted by leslieroycarter > 2019-11-25 15:30 | Report Abuse

Business is not as good as predicted

Posted by mydrvtry > 2019-11-25 22:14 | Report Abuse

But low resin price make advantage to Scientx?

Posted by pang72 > 2019-11-26 19:27 | Report Abuse

Buy buy buy!!
Nothing to say about!

Posted by mydrvtry > 2019-11-26 21:01 | Report Abuse

Wah, Jump so high today!

Posted by pang72 > 2019-11-26 21:19 | Report Abuse

Last 5min jump..
Hopefully drop back tomorrow then I can buy buy buy...

Posted by Ladiesman217 > 2019-11-26 23:08 | Report Abuse

TP RM20 dumb dumb hold!

Posted by mydrvtry > 2019-11-26 23:49 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow limit up

Posted by pang72 > 2019-11-27 00:13 | Report Abuse

wow..i want to buy...
limit up - how can i have the chance to buy!!

Posted by pang72 > 2019-11-28 21:13 | Report Abuse

Then I can all in for limit down!

Damn...

Posted by mydrvtry > 2019-12-10 20:04 | Report Abuse

It's time.

Posted by tokohM > 2019-12-13 09:42 | Report Abuse

i think expectation on scientx upcoming qtr result is appealing.

Posted by mydrvtry > 2019-12-13 21:33 | Report Abuse

Hope can reach RM10++

Posted by tokohM > 2019-12-16 11:10 | Report Abuse

tmr is scientx AGM, see what good propsect and news released before QR on 26th Dec

Posted by chun2 > 2019-12-17 08:15 | Report Abuse

May some kind souls be kind enough to update here the highlights from the AGM later?

Posted by Ming Huey > 2019-12-17 13:40 | Report Abuse

森德工业(SCIENTX，4713)首季业绩大好。

该公司在截至10月31日止的第1季里，营收激增23%至8亿7737万令吉；净利则猛涨55%至8096万令吉。

换成每股计算的净利是15.71仙。