PBA HOLDINGS BHD

KLSE (MYR): PBA (5041)

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Last Price

1.80

Today's Change

-0.02 (1.10%)

Day's Change

1.75 - 1.85

Trading Volume

1,064,400


6 people like this.

1,438 comment(s). Last comment by dollardollarbill 1 day ago

Posted by aceofbursa > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@boy, you are right. They believe PBA is worth at least RM3 before the tariff hike announcement. They may have revised up their TP after the announcement as there are further details which warrant a re-rating.

@dragon328, the content above is 99% of his comments on PBA. The link to the article https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/12/30/top-stock-picks-for-2024

Posted by niktraderinvestor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Still can hold? Or no momentum already?

dragon328

1,876 posts

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@aceofbursa, thanks for the link. Anyway you have already posted 99% of the content. I got the idea already. I do concur with his view that PBA is grossly undervalued, easily worth RM3.50-4.00 per share.

Posted by Justaboylearning > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

PBA kept on going downtrend, if it reaches RM 2.00 it will be scary

Posted by Bullstocks888 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@dragon328, I agreed with you that PBA is grossly undervalued! Fundamentals are getting stronger because they can raise tariff every 3 years and pass on ICPT surcharge to consumers. Still no analyst coverage? It seems that all the analysts are sleeping. I have been averaging up. Topped up at RM2.18.

Posted by dragon328 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Correct @Bullstocks888.

PBA is still grossly undervalued at current prices. Though no analyst covers this stock now, the only entity that gives a fair value to PBA currently is SimmmplyWallSt that gives a fair value of RM4.17.

It used a DCF valuation method and actual data of company free cashflows extrapolated forward. It assumed FCF of RM69.53 million for FY2024, obviously it has not taken into account the recent water tariff hike from 1st Feb 2024.

Nonetheless, the valuation of RM4.17 already gives a good upside of over 80% from current share price of RM2.28, even after it used a relatively high discount rate of 9.01%.

By early next year, once this institution has the more updated financial data of PBA post water tariff hike, the fair value will get a further boost from RM4.17.

KingKKK

340 posts

Posted by KingKKK > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient. - Warren Buffett

teknikal

171 posts

Posted by teknikal > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

BREAKOUT Analysis:
Next BREAKOUT estimate date = 2-February to 16-February.

The previous three consolidation before the next surge took 8, 9 and 19 trading days.

The current consolidation has taken 11 days, so the next move up is this week or next week

3-Jan to 15-Jan: 9 trading days followed by BREAKOUT above RM1.75 to RM2.25 level
12-Dec to 28-Dec: 12 trading days followed by BREAKOUT above RM1.30 to RM1.75 level
15-Nov to 8-Dec: 19 trading days followed by BREAKOUT above RM1.10 to RM1.30 level

Posted by Bullstocks888 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@KingKKK, well said! HODL for the big money! Ignore the short term noise.

Posted by KingKKK > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting. - Charlie Munger

paperplane

21,540 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

all cash out for cny angpow ah

Posted by dollardollarbill > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

https://pba.com.my/pdf/news/2024/07022024_PBAPP_DOM-Tariffs-2024_Apendix.pdf

"The PBA Group of Companies projects to generate an additional RM86 million in
revenue in 2024 from the implementation of the new rates."

dragon328

1,876 posts

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@dollardollarbill, thanks for the news link. This is a timely announcement from PBA.

Despite the recent tariff hike, the water tariff of Penang remains as one of the lowest in Malaysia. This paves the way for more hikes 3 years later.

Posted by niktraderinvestor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

This week qr release? Or when?

Posted by dollardollarbill > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Indeed @dragon328, with Penang having the second lowest domestic tariff, it paves way for another round of decent tariff hikes in 3yrs time.

There will also be another earnings boost coming sooner in Jan 2026 from non-domestic tariff hikes (last adjustment on 1 Jan 2023).

Although PBA expects RM86m in additional income for 2024, my estimates indicate it's closer to RM100m. PBA is probably being conservative in their estimation.

Bulk domestic water tariff is also now at a flat rate RM1.73 per cubic metre vs. 35sen for >90 cu m usage previously. And there's the additional 7sen per cubic m for non-domestics with the ICPT.

The stock may have jumped but it hasn't priced in many positive factors yet. I still see strong upside.

Posted by dollardollarbill > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

If the market values PBA at a reasonable 10x PE on RM150 million earnings, we're looking at a share price of RM4.50.

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have always sought to invest in companies with monopoly-like status, ideally akin to an unregulated toll bridge.

PBA's long-standing issue of low water tariffs has now been resolved, allowing for potential tariff increases every three years.

Three decades of pent-up earnings are now being unleashed, paving the way for superior earnings growth going forward.

troy88

2,538 posts

Posted by troy88 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

this one rested enough. Time for the next surge..

ocbc

917 posts

Posted by ocbc > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Move some of your PBA to Ranhill, Engtex ,YLi

Posted by Justaboylearning > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

cut loss cut loss. It's over....

KingKKK

340 posts

Posted by KingKKK > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

UTILITIES Sector (KingKKK): Fueling the Nation: Identifying the Top Performers in the Malaysian

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/bestStocks/2024-02-16-story-h-188417037-UTILITIES_Sector_KingKKK_Fueling_the_Nation_Identifying_the_Top_Perform

KingKKK

340 posts

Posted by KingKKK > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Air Itam Dam effective capacity successfully upheld over CNY peak use period, says PBAPP

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2024/02/17/air-itam-dam-effective-capacity-successfully-upheld-over-peak-use-period-says-pbapp

dragon328

1,876 posts

Posted by dragon328 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

WOW PBA powerful rally.

Finally consolidation is over and the market has realised how undervalued this counter is

goldenhope

245 posts

Posted by goldenhope > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

RM3 not a dream

Posted by niktraderinvestor > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Let's go rm5 end of this year

mizieXX

43 posts

Posted by mizieXX > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

late ticket

paktua73

18,203 posts

Posted by paktua73 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

paktua glaad was play here since price only rm1.18..
near to reach Paktua destination rm2.50..


tut tut
hold since rm1.18

Posted by Justaboylearning > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Pak tua it reached 2.50 few weeks ago. How come didn’t sell

paktua73

18,203 posts

Posted by paktua73 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

yes true justaboy..
paktua missed to sell that time



tut tut
hope this time can..

mizieXX

43 posts

Posted by mizieXX > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I live in penang..want to see how much increase for water bills.

Posted by aceofbursa > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Tradeview Capital’s chief investment officer Nixon Wong believes the current share prices of certain counters are mirroring uncertainties regarding the actual magnitude of the tariff hike, which suggests potential upside once these details are clarified.

Nevertheless, he added: “The sector might experience a re-rating with more information on the implementation of regular tariff revision and Imbalance Cost Pass Through mechanism."

A major re-rating for PBA?

Posted by Justaboylearning > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Good luck all, may the odds be in our favour

mizieXX

43 posts

Posted by mizieXX > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Alamak..esok kasi gap down dulu😅

mizieXX

43 posts

Posted by mizieXX > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Buy low wait until next quarter

Posted by jackson1688888 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

company annouce share buy back up to 10% of its total issue share capital ,isnt good for share price ?

Posted by Justaboylearning > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

TP RM2.00

Buy the dips for one quarter .

super911

294 posts

Posted by super911 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Do you think they will sell low for you to buy? :D

Posted by Justaboylearning > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Super911 yeah it will goes low . Negative earnings .

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

It is a very disappointing QR.

super911

294 posts

Posted by super911 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

May I know why profit for latest QR is just RM14M, but the tax is RM26M?
Also profit the the year is RM68M, but the tax is RM34M?

sayeng

2 posts

Posted by sayeng > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

The negative PAT is solely due different treatment on certain expenses items related to maintenance and also interest expenses. All these items will be written off as expenses entirely as it incurred, however under tax treatment it will first be capitalized and amortized over few years.

Posted by Bullstocks888 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

PBA FY23 results looks ok if you exclude the exceptional items.

total PBT RM68.4mil
Additional revenue from tariff hike RM86mil
Estimated pbt RM154mil in FY24
Assuming normal tax rate 24%, PAT RM117mil
At 10x PE ratio, fair price should be RM3.53.

Operating cash flows jumped 70% to RM179mil in FY23 from RM103mil in FY22.

Net cash increase to RM215mil.

DPS increase 17% to 3.5 sen in FY23

What is your view? @dragon328, @KingKKK, @dollardollarbill

Posted by benghooi > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

@Bullstocks888

PBT RM68.4m in FY23.

Electricity ICPT surcharge rate for water operators was reduced from 20sen/kWh to 3.7sen/kWh effective 1 July 2023

Posted by dollardollarbill > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

@Bullstocks888

The income statement can mask/hide the real earnings of PBA, but not in the Cash Flow statement. Operating cash flow before working capital changes is RM128.5m in 2023 vs. RM87.4m in 2022. Net OCF RM179m in 2023 vs. RM103m in 2022.

The deferred tax expense of RM25.7m is a non-cash item and might potentially be reversed in the upcoming quarters.

The tariff hike for domestic users (and other categories) was just implemented on 1 Feb 2024, not in 4Q23. So, the RM86m increase in revenue that PBA mentioned will only be reflected from 1Q24 onwards.

While costs may have increased a bit in 4Q, these cost increases can be passed on in the next tariff adjustments in 2026 and 2027 for non-domestic and domestic users. Consequently, earnings are expected to continue rising after the adjustments.

I will continue to hold PBA as I believe in my long-term thesis, rather than focusing on the next quarter or two. In investing, one shouldn't feel pressured to chase returns for the next few months. Taking the longer-term view and focusing on the bigger picture is how great returns are generated.

Posted by dollardollarbill > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

@benghooi
Thanks for pointing out.
In other words, PBT would be even higher if the lower ICPT surcharge was for the whole 12 months of 2023, instead of 6 months (1 July - 31 Dec 2023)

mizieXX

43 posts

Posted by mizieXX > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

buy2 now

paktua73

18,203 posts

Posted by paktua73 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

tudia aih..merudum kaw kaw..

paktua wait at rm1.18 back laa


tut tut
still hold no sell yet

newbie9893

1,880 posts

Posted by newbie9893 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

limit down?

gohkimhock

2,938 posts

Posted by gohkimhock > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

when you see this kind of carnage, it is due to over-speculation.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

opportunity to buy for those missed?

MrFox

992 posts

Posted by MrFox > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

am waiting to buy! but when!!!
haha

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Bodo punya manusia, goreng goreng dump

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