The Baltic Exchange Dry Index went up 0.7% to 4,304 on Monday, its highest since November 24th, 2009, lifted by gains across all vessel segments amid ongoing shipping constraints and stronger demand for commodities. The capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, rose 1% to 6,487, a peak since December of 2009; and the panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains, advanced for an eighth straight session, adding 0.3% to 3,916, its highest in over two months. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index increased for a sixth straight session, rising 12 points to 3,319, its highest in over two weeks.
By far it's the outright tailwind for All shipping business owners and operators but again what is there still missing and not fulfilling the expectations of many others.
I also top up. Too deep the fall. Also the China company got nothing to do with Malaysia stock, and trust me don't you expect any fall in property prices in China BIG cities.
For those who in doubts why Maybulk still remain in low price while BDI already fly high to above 4 thousands, the reason is Maybulk is still in high accumulated losses due to the long period of long BDI, and the high borrowings. Till Jun 2021, the accumulated losses is RM136,800,000 and total borrowings are RM188,022,000.
from the records, both losses and borrowings are reduced steadily around RM30,000,000 each quarter. For Maybulk to break even, it will need to take around 9 months profitable period with current BDI. The share price remain low as it is hard to predict whether the current BDI can hold more than a year or not.
to buy or not to buy Maybulk, you need to come out your own forecast on BDI: can BDI hold above 3500 more than a year from now? if your answer is yes, then buy it. if the answer is no, then current high BDI will only help Maybulk reduce the losses and borrowing, but the balance sheet still not so attractive. Estimate all the big funds may start to buy in if next 2 quarter remain in good result. As small fish, we need to buy in earlier then those big fund in order to gain satisfying profit.
Thanks Pek79 for this lengthy deliberation. Mind you if you're the arden followers of MBC update then you wouldn't have missed the story about their plan to liquidate 2 ships worth about 208 millions ringgit bound to be completed in Q3 this year.
Some may argue whether or not a good deal but guess you have to figure it out yourself. On one hand you can capitalize the current asset value and turnaround their balance sheet and the other hand of loose out the money making machines
For best leading estimates, you can check their operating profits of over 20 plus million ringgit at TCE of 17k plus USD. Just do simple mathematical calculation of current TCE of about 35k USD spot rates.
hmmm, the decision liquidate 2 ships may be a brilliant decision if the BDI rebound is going to hold less than 6 months, but it will be a bad decision if BDI going to hold above 3500 for long as it will reduce the earning capability. NTA reduce will also affect the value of Maybulk.
The same liquidation also happened 2019 & 2020, but i feel like it was a forced decision by the high borrowing.....
Well said. No thanks to their very bad investment decisions on POSH many many years then until MBC is still suffering from that RPT blunder. If not they are in a much better shape then now
Another possible good thing is MBC will likely to write back those assets impaired a couple of years back to reflect the current earning power of those remaining ships albeit left only Three Kamsarmax class
Agree. What ever goes up must eventually comes down but if the market consensus is correct, v r just at the investment cycle clock of 7 or 8 pm. Long way before the peak and down cycle which is estimated in 2023 when the book building orders start to flush the market with new build vessels.
Ok la enough said. Naik Turun pun tak pa la janji u know what ur paying for or plan your exit plan kalo ada if things turn sour due to Black Swan emerges.
The Baltic Exchange Dry Index rose 3.4% to 4,560 on Wednesday, its highest since November of 2009 and extending gains to a fourth straight session, driven by higher rates across all vessel segments amid ongoing shipping constraints and an overall rebound in commodities demand. The capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, climbed 6.1% to 7,200, its highest in 12 years; and the panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains, advanced for a tenth straight session, adding 0.8% to 3,961, its highest in more than ten weeks. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index increased 11 points to 3,338, its highest in over two weeks. source: Baltic Exchange
Some predict bdi will extend uptrend for another 2 years as this pandemic is unprecedented.. and one new ship takes 2-3 years to build.. if that happen 2.00 isn't impossible.. let's see
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Posted by RVI123 > 2021-09-19 22:41 | Report Abuse
Shortage of dry bulk ships is getting more and more serious. Freight rates is going to increase drastically.
https://gcaptain.com/bulker-rates-may-go-parabolic-says-genco-ceo/