Posted by titus > 2014-04-23 14:12 | Report Abuse

if the india powerplant bcome white elephant, then mudajaya will be suffer. But again, even 1mdb wanted to get into india due to their hunger for electricity. There is definitely demand there as i know the electricity is not enough. I believed the power plant should take off.

Posted by titus > 2014-04-23 14:17 | Report Abuse

but on why the director keep on selling. I have no idea. I only know it don't look good. I did asked Mr Koon in this forum on why thier reserve depleted by half and he answer as long the Auditor has not changed, nothing to worry. Also, he said IJm is much more in debt but yet valuation is higher. I do hold some of the share. Just hoping the boat don't sink

Posted by LimitUp > 2014-04-23 21:50 | Report Abuse

How to sink with potential in Kidex the valuation will go up

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 08:12 | Report Abuse

The news articles on Kidex are incorrect - the tender has been extended to the last week of May and 5 tenderers are still in contention.

Always ask yourself - why so much hype by the research houses on the "future prospects" of Mudajaya such as the Kidex (it is only one of five contenders), mention of "catalysts" - see johnny cash's postings etc.?

So, if the news articles and research reports are just hype, don't be the one left holding the bag.

Points to note:
1. Directors and ex-ED/MD are all selling;
2. Depleting order book;
3. Very few large government or private projects are available today and even then, there will be keen competition (low margins and high risk if the project construction is not well-managed: just wait for the quarterly report and see if it is still rosy);
4. Possible problems with the Indian power plant - the problem with the coal supply was mentioned in some news reports and todate, the company has failed to clarify this matter;
5. The company has only 30% in the Indian IPP. The Indians have controlling interest. See what happens if the Indians decide to have the cake and eat it;


As I have stated before, follow the money!!! Do you still want to invest or stay invested when insiders are selling??

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 08:23 | Report Abuse

titus - The power plant is more or less completed. The latest development is the reported problem with the quality of the coal supplied - if the quality does not meet the Indian authorities specification, the power generation licence can actually be suspended.

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 09:08 | Report Abuse

I mean the power plant agreement/contract.

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-04-24 09:50 | Report Abuse

always got probelms this mudatidur company

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 10:54 | Report Abuse

johnny cash - Actually, I'm just sharing. A lot of retailers may have "invested" bcos of the Allianz research reports and bcos it was Uncle Koon's founding company.

Go check on the senior management and you will see what I mean about no political connections. It is tough enuf with so few large government projects being implemented - construction glory days are actually over.

Posted by Ken Lim > 2014-04-24 11:16 | Report Abuse

Huu ... Mudajya

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-24 11:57 | Report Abuse

What the hell is the matter now???!!??

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 12:05 | Report Abuse

Simple: re-rating, see this article
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/50808.jsp

2014F/2015F EPS is only 15sen/27sen. If 2014 also cannot meet earlier forecasted EPS (now reduced to 15sen), would you expect it to meet 27sen in 2015 when all economies are expected to turn down.

Based on revised 2014 EPS of 15sen, counter is valued only at RM 1.50 using a PE of 10.

Now, do you see why the insiders are selling. Good luck & cheerio!!

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-24 12:23 | Report Abuse

As a result, we cut our FY14/15 forecasts by 65%/31% and FV by 5% to MYR2.71 (from MYR2.85), but maintain our NEUTRAL call.

FV MYR2.71 ler

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 12:25 | Report Abuse

Remember, this stock is illiquid. When Tabung Haji starts selling (9%), then you will see the real fireworks.

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-24 12:27 | Report Abuse

income delayed, not suspended ler

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 12:29 | Report Abuse

AhMoi - FV 2.71 is based on 2015F EPS of 27sen(ie 10 x 27sen = 2.70)

Like I said , if they cannot even meet 2014 EPS forecast and this has been reduced to 15sen, do you think they can achieve 27sen in 2015 with a depleting order book, possible losses in current projects and no real chances of securing any large projects in the balance of 2014?

The company would be fortunate if they can even meet 15sen EPS in 2015.

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 12:31 | Report Abuse

Anyway, believe whatever you choose. I am only stating the obvious and that is, follow the money (insiders are selling).

I'm sure most of you don't mind holding the bag.

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 12:35 | Report Abuse

It's not income delayed - read the article again. It's earnings recovery delayed.

Again, if you believe everything is fine with the Indian IPP project, then good luck. You will need it!

Posted by smallfish > 2014-04-24 12:40 | Report Abuse

I hate this company and all its delays. This management SUCKS BIG TIME!!

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-04-24 13:28 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/50808.jsp

AT LAST THE TRUTH CAME OUT DELAY DALAY AGAIN...THIS IS THE REASONS WHY THE DIRECTORS WERE SELLING RECENTLY..BUT OUR GREAT HEROES WERE SAYING DIRECTOR WERE SELLING BECAUSE WANT TO BUY CAR..... HA HA HA

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-24 14:02 | Report Abuse

EX directors are not involved with the co anymore as you all have posted, so, how would they knew about the delay to start selling first??

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-24 14:05 | Report Abuse

We believe the market may re-rate the stock when it becomes clear that its Indian power plant will soon be up and-running.

WHICH IS GOOD.

As a result, we cut our FY14/15 forecasts by 65%/31% and FV by 5% to MYR2.71 (from MYR2.85), but maintain our NEUTRAL call.

WHICH IS DOING THE OPPOSITE??!!

RHB what are you doing??!!!

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-24 14:10 | Report Abuse

Indian power plant delayed by six more months. We project Mudajaya’s earnings recovery to be delayed by a year to FY15 from FY14. This follows the deferment of the COD for Unit 1 of its 4 x 360MW greenfield coal-fired power plant in Chhattisgarh, India, by another six months to 3Q14 from 1Q14 previously

by another six months to 3Q14 from 1Q14 previously

this is actually nothing new..... as we are already in 2Q14. not news anymore la

Posted by smallfish > 2014-04-24 14:37 | Report Abuse

First they say delay 3 months, then delay another 3 months, now delay another 6 months.... After 6 months, maybe they will say... "Sorry, another 3 more months delay". There is no end to the delays and delays. This contractor cannot meet deadlines. So if you are a customer, will you award contracts to a contractor who cannot meet deadlines? This company is losing business to other contractors.

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 14:53 | Report Abuse

AhMoi - If you read the company annual reports carefully, you will note that one of the current directors (Ng CK) is related to the ex-ED/MD.

And if you read the analyst's report on the power plant, you will note that there is no mention of what is causing the delay. Why the lack of transparency? Are you so sure yourselves that there are no problems with the power plant?

Selling shares to change cars etc? Sounds like fairy tales.

It is already very clear from the latest analyst report that the company is facing problems in meeting the projected turnover and profit forecasts and yet many here choose to believe in other things. Good luck, like I said. The directors and ex-ED are still selling.

Posted by smallfish > 2014-04-24 15:08 | Report Abuse

Correct! This company got problem. And the problem is the MD.
Just like Manchester United, the problem was the manager. So the board had to do the right thing which was to sack the manager, and they did. Now, we should sack the MD for his incompetency. If he is competent, he would have been able to resolve the India power plant and operate without delays.

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-24 15:12 | Report Abuse

my fact on humanity would be totally shattered if mr koon turned out to be not a victim but a perpetuator....

I wont be able to trust anyone anymore. : (

mr koon please say it isn't so!!

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 15:24 | Report Abuse

AhMoi - Uncle Koon didn't tell fairy tales. I think he was told fairy tales also. He has a significant amount of shares in the company and he can be a very long term holder, so feel free to join him but don't blame him.

smallfish - The current ED/CEO already wants to retire and also wants to enjoy his riches. His designated successor, the current COO, also 'boh liau'.

Posted by calmcool > 2014-04-24 15:35 | Report Abuse

Mudajaya is good counter but the price will drop further when next report out due to lack of catalyst. The profit will further down which may cause price drop. It is advice to wait for next report out before go in as you may get better bargain.

Posted by valuelurker > 2014-04-24 15:36 | Report Abuse

interesting gerry188, you seem to have a lot of information...can share source/email

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 15:43 | Report Abuse

valuelurker - I am in the construction industry. Do hear a lot of stuff! Anyway, I do not have any investment in this counter.

It saddens me to see retailers getting conned by so-called analysts. I have been conned before on other counters such as Daya, so just sharing here and hoping that all of you can see through the hype.

Invest at your own risk, ok!

Posted by smallfish > 2014-04-24 16:04 | Report Abuse

16,000 lots sold by investors and already 8 send down... another 184,000 lots to be sold by investors in the next coming weeks/months. Price coming down further.

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 16:09 | Report Abuse

smallfish - that will be a drop of another 80sen. so TP of 1.50 can be reached by then??

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-04-24 16:23 | Report Abuse

The risk mentioned by analysts at the moment all comes true.
1. delay in IPP in India
2. book order falling short of target of RM1.5b

Bottom line, no new projects, the price will be flat. Further delays on the IPP in India, not good news. The only silver lining going forward is Malaysia still have many mega projects. The price has been flat around 2.60-2.70 for last 3 years.

Hmmmm……….. they should consider Bonus issue…………….. (although no economic value to the company, but the shareholders sure love it).

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 16:27 | Report Abuse

sosfinance - The price has been flat because of buyback support. This time directors and the ex-ED are all selling. The fear is when Tabung Haji also gets into the act.

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 16:31 | Report Abuse

I do not think that the IPP delay is so straight forward. Normally, in a coal fired plant, you have the long term coal supply agreement and for power distribution, the transmission line construction.

There are reported problems with the coal quality - what about all the other unreported problems (which perhaps only the company officials know and choose not to disclose).

This is India, and a much more savvy operator AirAsia is already having so many problems even with a very strong local partner.

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-24 16:34 | Report Abuse

If 1.50 I will buy over all of mr koon's shareholding.. ; )

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 16:41 | Report Abuse

AhMoi - I remember he mentioned somewhere in the forum that he has a few million shares in this counter. Anyway, good luck with your investment.

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-24 16:41 | Report Abuse

The risk mentioned by analysts at the moment all comes true.
1. delay in IPP in India
2. book order falling short of target of RM1.5b

sosfinance.. you knew these cos they mentioned again and again previously, so actually this latest rhb report has nothing new.

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-24 16:54 | Report Abuse

ya mr koonyou read me right, I will buy over all your shareholding; be generous with me, 3 years credit term ok?? ; )

Posted by benson911 > 2014-04-24 17:07 | Report Abuse

Waiting at RM2.5~

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-24 17:08 | Report Abuse

mr koon this not exactly risk free you know, what with your.. the "designated successor, the current COO, also 'boh liau'.." as mentioned by people who know.

Posted by Ken Lim > 2014-04-24 17:21 | Report Abuse

Temporary will going down wth this stock because Chinese paper haven't advertise yet .. Haiz ! Holland

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 17:30 | Report Abuse

AhMoi - The COO is a career manager (again) previously from the Renong group, and certainly no political heavyweight. I believe he and the present ED/CEO were in the Renong group with the ex-ED - that's why they all seem to have ended up in Mudajaya. Good salaries and perks perhaps??

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 17:31 | Report Abuse

Ken Lim - you are right on that count. All indicators pointing down.

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-04-24 18:22 | Report Abuse

there are two active analyst that covers up mudajaya,,,CIMB and RHB.... CIMB always supports mudajaya during diffecult times, but RHB i still remember once it did said mudajaya might turn into a WHITE ELEPHANT....

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-04-24 20:27 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/50808.jsp

at last the TRUTH is out no wonder ex director was selling..want to buy CAR ha......

mind games ha

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-04-24 22:45 | Report Abuse

it needs a catalyst to move this stock. until any catalyst is announced, it is unlikely to move up. Maybe Kidex, or other major projects in Pegerang, or IPP project in Manjung or Prai or Tropicana Land. The question here is whether it is worthwhile to wait? Once the project is secured, perhaps it will be rerated. Until then, DY is about 4.5% p.a. when the price down, there will be a lot of experts, when it is up, similarly, there will be a lot of experts.

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 22:46 | Report Abuse

johnny cash: Just fairy tales, but I wouldn't blame Uncle Koon - he may not have been told the truth.

Real selling starts when the truth about the Indian IPP comes out? Only one exit, woh!!

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 22:54 | Report Abuse

sosfinance - The Kidex tender has been extended to the last week of May and there are 5 contenders. You can do your own check (I can see that you are quite meticulous) and see if the news articles are correct or just selling hype.

The Manjung IPP is well in progress(that is the main contributor at the moment to Mudajaya's turnover)and the civil works should be completed by end of this year.

All other purported projects are just speculation.

You may call us "experts" or any other names that you wish but the reality right in front of you is that the directors and ex-ED are all selling. But before you do that, get your facts right.

Posted by gerry188 > 2014-04-24 23:11 | Report Abuse

Just ask yourself, if the DY is so good and the company is going to recover earnings soon, then why are the directors and the ex-ED selling.

Only one exit when the stampede starts!!