Posted by dudu > 2017-11-30 11:25 | Report Abuse

Uncle Koon want to buy Choobee, so he attack Choobee. But Choobee price didn't come down. So he unable to buy. Now Uncle Koon want to buy Masteel lah........Very obvious wat.

Posted by datuk73 > 2017-11-30 11:45 | Report Abuse

Choobee,choobee, choobee,
Old man love choobee..
But so painful when bee come he he
Tut tut

Posted by dalpinia > 2017-11-30 12:00 | Report Abuse

No more KYY topic anymore,boring....not worth to discuss him over this forum

Posted by Joshk > 2017-11-30 12:10 | Report Abuse

Rebar historical price was highest in June 2008, where it hit RM3900/t in Malaysia. Back then China was still higher than Malaysia, at approx RM4100/t. If you examine this year's price trend, we started off the year, we started around RM2200/T in Jan, it dipped below RM2000/T middle of this year. Then went up drastically from Jul to Sep, and hit above RM2700/T (these 3 months are the Q3 period). After Sep, price has since gradually dropped. RM2600 in October and at about RM2400/T (end user price up to 7/11/17). Market demand has been a little weakened but shows slight improvement. My personal take is that, unless the demand/order has increased drastically during this 4th Quarter, comparing Oct-Dec rebar price vs Jul-Sep rebar price, otherwise this QR results is likely to drop.

Analyse Q1 and Q2, you will realise that Q2 revenue dropped compared to Q1, coincidentally, rebar price dropped below RM2000/T in Q2.

The demand vs supply is one of the key determinants of the company's business.

Posted by paktua73 > 2017-11-30 12:24 | Report Abuse

Old man love masteel
But..
Wait a bit long laa
Before enter
Tut tut

Posted by 林俊松 > 2017-11-30 12:26 | Report Abuse

Mr OTB or any sifu can advice me whether Tongher is a value buy?
Company business is growing, dividend 8.8% a year, net cash company & graph just break RM4 after consolidate for 6 months~

Posted by investoroem > 2017-11-30 13:23 | Report Abuse

@Joshk Rebar historical price was highest in June 2008, where it hit RM3900/t in Malaysia....

I believe average q4 rebar prices will be higher than average q3 rebar prices. October rebar prices started declining from ~RM2600 to ~RM2400 at end November and now rebouncing upwards.
If they past 1 week China rebars prices upwards movement is anything to go by, our December rebar prices should end the year at RM2600+
So q4 average rebar prices should be higher than average q3 rebar prices of roughly RM2400

Posted by Joshk > 2017-11-30 14:22 | Report Abuse

@investoroem - yes, provided it does climb back up in December. But most importantly is the demand / order. The average for 3 months for Jul-Sep (Amsteel/Anjoo/Southern/Masteel) for Klang Valley is about RM2330 (T16-T32) and RM2470 (T40). If in Dec, it can climb back up to 2600 from current ~ 2400 (which is quite unlikely for such sudden jump as tomorrow itself is 1/12), in such ideal case you will get Q4 average around RM2400 (T16-T32) and RM2500 (T40) still... around the average for Q3. So, unless the demand / order book increase, otherwise i foresee the net profits wont be too far off from current Q3, and could potentially drop. Of course there are many other factors we need to consider. So having said that, despite we do have ongoing mega projects such as MRT2, LRT3 etc right now, I am a little doubtful that the demand will surge drastically in short term. ECRL and especially HSR wont trigger the effect so soon (HSR has just started calling tender for PDP role.. expected award by early or mid next year, then only comes with design and tendering out to appoint contractors...), plus with property sector slowing down, looking at current Masteel share price which is considered at high, the call is yours.

Posted by Aaron Ong > 2017-11-30 14:43 | Report Abuse

if it drops below 1.5 I'll collect again. TP 1.7 incomingggg

Posted by Investor5711 > 2017-11-30 14:55 | Report Abuse

KYY must be hiding himself thinking finally masteel sell down so I can collect at lower prices before shooting up. Such a cunning fox.

Posted by Investor5711 > 2017-11-30 14:59 | Report Abuse

Sandra please do your homework as current pe n eps how can it go lower than 1.2? Please explain, stop boot licking

Posted by csl1991 > 2017-11-30 15:00 | Report Abuse

Apart from the demand side, please look at the supply side. We have to factor in China into our analysis as well. Let's assume a simple scenario where demand is unchanged from previously until now. Before this, steel demand was met by cheap China steel, which in turn kicked our local steel players out of business. Now, we've kept China steel in check with duties and taxes. China themselves cut production by half. So, our local steel is now being consumed rather than China steel.

Posted by csl1991 > 2017-11-30 15:03 | Report Abuse

My point is that the supply side of the equation has drastically improved in favour of Malaysian steelmakers. What you should be worried of is the situation whereby China steel is so cheap to the point our construction companies all only buy cheap imported China steel. That's the situation whereby no matter how high demand for steel is, it won't matter because local steel is not consumed. In the current case, our local steel is being consumed.

Posted by csl1991 > 2017-11-30 15:06 | Report Abuse

Masteel has rallied 23% recently. A few percent correction is normal. You can't expect it to go parabolic uptrend all the way to 50% without correction...

Posted by Aaron Ong > 2017-11-30 15:10 | Report Abuse

just ignore Sandra85/86. Shes just someone's brainless goon. Every post is follow KYY and go buy Sendai / JAKS to get super duper rich quick and easily.

If its that easy, please dude

Posted by aiboon > 2017-11-30 15:12 | Report Abuse

hahahahaha....very funny

Posted by onlyinvestment > 2017-11-30 15:13 | Report Abuse

I see a lot people argument demand . Demand I believed will decrease due to property slow down . But who can tell me the speed slow down of demand is sharp or slow slow drop. If you're talking demand will sharp drop 20% 30% then maybe we need worry Masteel , but do you think will sharp drop in Dec. Do you think goverment is stop new property project , the started one not affect . Started one still need rebar. If you talking next year jun or july demand then maybe will affect Masteel. But now I didnt see any affect. And one more important , demand we havent confirmed will drop or not but we confirmed the sales price will up . If revenue drop but sales price up and gain profic , why so scare revenue? If revenue sharp up but lost profic , you want buy this share ? Lsteel got sharp increase revenue but lost profit , the share price drop like lao sai. You want buy Lsteel ? If you want let me know , I got a lot Lsteel share can sell you .

Posted by onlyinvestment > 2017-11-30 15:19 | Report Abuse

No need doughful the QR 4 of masteel . I personal is confidence in QR 4. If you asking me will hold utill when . I will tell you I'll keep at least QR 1 2018. Means before 2018 may , i would not sell my Masteel unless sales price sharp drop or machice break down(This quarter a lot company machine break down and caused to lost money). Don't know what their maintenance doing ?

Posted by onlyinvestment > 2017-11-30 15:22 | Report Abuse

Only sharing not a buy call . Masteel I seldom check but Lsteel i every hour check because I lost money there but I learn there also. Masteel drop to 1.20 i still gain money because i entry in jun . So i no worry about that but who buy at 1.5 maybe scare because price cant up. But please patience , share would not today but tomorrow sharp up. Will steady up if the share is potencial share.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2017-11-30 15:27 | Report Abuse

I want you to read this article, it is a full research done by Lau333.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/20102017/139652.jsp

Properties and construction sectors will continue to grow in 2018. It is facts and figures shown in aforesaid research.
Strengthening of RM will help Masteel to make more profit.
Likewise, price increase on steel price as stated by many readers here.

The weakness in price is because of market sentiment and T+4.
Fundamental is becoming better each day.
Present weakness in price is served as good entry level to buy more Masteel.

I want to stress it again, I recommend a buy on Masteel below 1.50.

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by aslm > 2017-11-30 15:30 | Report Abuse

support, buy at 1.50

Posted by Aaron Ong > 2017-11-30 15:35 | Report Abuse

most developers in malaysia already predicted the slowdown and already made measurements to deal with it. Even the financial reserve few days ago said they are only minimally impacted and able to weather the storm. And not just residential properties, infrastructure developments will also require steel purchase.

whoever no telur and wanna sell now please do so, because its going to shoot up again soon.

That time when 1.20 everyone doubted. Let's see who wins in the end (:

Posted by investoroem > 2017-11-30 15:41 | Report Abuse

@csl1991 My point is that the supply side of the equation has drastically improved in favour of Malaysian steelmakers.....
Agree with you csl1991. Malaysian steelmakers have no external competitors now...And internal demand is always there....And substantial pick up in demand is imminent.

Posted by investoroem > 2017-11-30 15:43 | Report Abuse

And yes, steel prices are on uptrend globally thanks to China

Posted by dalpinia > 2017-11-30 15:45 | Report Abuse

2018 all the steel counters will start export to China like Musang King.....Malaysian market become 2nd priority....just like Malaysian now feel pain when wanted to eat Musang King. Just export lah all steel counters, local market too small, must growth explosively to oversea market....

Posted by ilovehits > 2017-11-30 15:46 | Report Abuse

Luckily I didn't buy. Now in this market sentiment, buy what drop what.

Posted by pilot20 > 2017-11-30 15:49 | Report Abuse

Ilovehits, not correct. Now is the best time to buy your favourite stock.

Posted by Henly > 2017-11-30 15:50 | Report Abuse

buy more at 1.47

Posted by ilovehits > 2017-11-30 15:50 | Report Abuse

No, no, no. I stay aside first. Thanks for your advice.

Posted by Henly > 2017-11-30 15:55 | Report Abuse

buy 1.45

Posted by Joshk > 2017-11-30 15:56 | Report Abuse

I have a question here for ECRL. since this is taken up by CCCC, funded by China, anybody knows what's the deal for this? are they required to purchase rebar locally? or they can import from China? since they are funding the project, cost might not be a tooo big issue with them, who knows their ultimate agenda.

I noted that Lau333 highlighted several projects which have yet commenced / uncertain.

BRT Federal Line has been canceled (news 2 days ago).

MRT3 is uncertain, though MRTCorp called tender, but obviously, government no money, so tenderers need to propose financing to fund the entire project. Again, near election, everything is hard to say. Same goes to PTMP. Uncertain. The thing about Malaysia, political factors kill off many good projects.

So again, nothing is solid and absolute, just like Bursa, so trade at your own discretion.

Posted by STC1136 > 2017-11-30 16:02 | Report Abuse

I think this round kyy sale down effect has washed out many day trader or contra player.

Posted by hueyshiuan21 > 2017-11-30 16:02 | Report Abuse

Steel counter with good QR in big sale. Bought masteel and Ssteel. Cheer!!

Posted by STC1136 > 2017-11-30 16:12 | Report Abuse

The last hours of today will be shopping time, top up again in 1.48......Cheers

Posted by investoroem > 2017-11-30 16:16 | Report Abuse

Bought Ssteel, another great steel counter

Posted by titus > 2017-11-30 16:36 | Report Abuse

i think i can provide some insight to Joshk. They are not required to buy any material locally as far as i know. I was down in Kuantan 3 weeks back and out of sarcasm, i tease my uncle saying the ECRL is bringing good business to the local. He says u think so?....from rice to rice cooker and down to a single bolt is imported from China. Go ask the local hardware shop if their business improve.They only things they see has changed is the price of seafood and durian. The fresh fish are all wallop by the construction workers making it now expensive for the local.

Posted by dalpinia > 2017-11-30 16:43 | Report Abuse

ECRL for sure will buy the steel from local manufacturers as it is cheaper and shorten the delivery lead time and lower shipping cost.

Posted by aslm > 2017-11-30 17:13 | Report Abuse

just buy..

Posted by stlf > 2017-11-30 18:45 | Report Abuse

ECRL will get their steel from Alliance steel in Gebeng , Kuantan which is owned by them. Titus is correct...the locals get nothing from the overseas Chinese...everything they bring in from China through Kuantan port.

Posted by STC1136 > 2017-11-30 19:02 | Report Abuse

29/11 CNY4,593 = RM2,852 per tons.

Today Closing break record again,

30/11 CNY4,745 = RM2,947 per tons

Posted by STC1136 > 2017-11-30 19:06 | Report Abuse

China Rebar has increased from CNY3,932 to CNY4,745, up 20.7%.

Will malaysia Rebar price follow this trend?

Now malaysia 2,400, China 2,947

Wow RM547 per ton difference.....

Posted by soojinhou > 2017-11-30 19:10 | Report Abuse

China rebar price is higher than Malaysia, and that hasn't include tariff and transportation, do you think they are going to buy from China?

Posted by Sslee > 2017-12-01 07:52 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Our entire elder deserve our respect as we don’t know what they have gone through so that we can have a better life?
Mr. Koon likes to write in an arrogant and provocative way, this is his style. On many occasions he had admitted humility is not one of his strong points. I believe in his eagerness to share his knowledge about property and building materials businesses, he might had err in his judgment that an oversupply of properties and there will be less building construction hence Masteel's profit will definitely be reduced in the next few quarters. (Note: You need to reach his age of 84 years to understand how your mind sometime fails you or too quick to jump to conclusion without seeing the whole picture). Even ICAPITAL.BIZ BERHAD, Mr. Tan Teng Boo had been wrong in warning of market crash for many years. However eventually he will be proved right. The question is when?
This is a public forum and everyone is entitled to express his diverse opinions and true to this freedom of expression many had penned their opinions on Mr. KYY. I am glad that many have move past Mr. KYY comments and readily sharing useful information (Rebar market price and demand) that benefit all in enabling them to make their investment decision according to their own judgment.
Lastly to err is human to forgive divine. Wishing all has a successful and profitable investment.

Dear Mr. Koon Yew Yin,
Thank you for saying: “Good luck to all readers. I hope I am wrong!!!”
And my congratulation to you, HENGYUAN had just reported Q3 EPS of RM 120.59 cents.
Sincerely, if my writing is in anyway had offended you, please accept my sincere apology.
A Happy long weekend and enjoy your reading, writing, investing and philanthropic work.

Thank you

Posted by dudu > 2017-12-01 09:42 | Report Abuse

Follow OTB, add 1.48 yesterday

Posted by MrPauper > 2017-12-01 09:52 | Report Abuse

For ecri project, it's on a ratio of 50 : 50 between local and imported raw materials

Posted by aslm > 2017-12-01 10:05 | Report Abuse

Follow OTB recommendation, bought below 1.50 for TP of 2.50, good return.

Posted by Joshk > 2017-12-02 00:16 | Report Abuse

My Chinese steel fabricator just told me this evening that Chinese rebar price hiked RMB100 to max RMB 500 today alone.

Posted by Joshk > 2017-12-02 23:34 | Report Abuse

Also, if you are looking at long term, be aware of Alliance Steel (M) Sdn Bhd, a RM5.6 billion project established under MCKLP in Kuantan. Can you imagine the impact?

Posted by victor9999 > 2017-12-04 09:32 | Report Abuse

gg

Posted by rachelhltang > 2017-12-04 09:46 | Report Abuse

What happen to this counter ?