Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 11:04 | Report Abuse

Wow! 6? I would LOVE that. Ans so do most of us here in the forum! ....but i will just have to pinch myself to wake up from the sweet sweet dream...:). Like every others companies listed on the BURSA, AA share price will be very much reflects its earnings. With most brokers slashing FY2020 earning ranging by 15%-40%, i will be just happy if AA can maintain its share price cum ex....i m actually praying hard for that

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 11:11 | Report Abuse

Of course anything is possible. Be it 4,5 or 6 but all this TP has to be backed by solid or perhaps some sort of future growth story that translate into earning which will give the valuation. Until then, investors, institutional, and the astute ones will be unwilling to commit more or even slash their holdings....

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 11:15 | Report Abuse

For illustration purposes, if one think a stock xyz worth 6, xyz ought to churn out 60sen per share if we value the company based on PER of 10x. Of course there are other valuation methods with fancy name by those analyst such as break-out value, sum-of-part, cash flow analysis, IRR method, debt/equity...bla bla bla and the list go on. Whatever name that is the valuation, at the end its all about earning! Earning! And again earning! Minus expenses expenses expenses.

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 11:18 | Report Abuse

So its very simple to gauge even without exact figures. Is the xyz earning going to grow going forward? How is the debt amount? Any increase or decrease and are there in local currency or foreign currency? If foreign how strong is the local currency vis-a-vis the foreign currency? How much it will affect if either currency goes up and down by 1%?

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 11:20 | Report Abuse

Other important issue will be cash holding. If a company pays out huge amount of dividend can the company sustain its operation? And if previously valued by cash per share basis, valuation will certainly get a slashing...

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 11:21 | Report Abuse

Also policy changes how it will affect or impact earnings? Some companies fortune very much hinges on the government’s policies. Any adverse changes will send its share price into tail spin

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 11:24 | Report Abuse

Until a company can address these issue in a satisfactory manner PLUS a beautiful future growth story.....and ALSO if investors are convinced its doable, THEN....we can see the interest in the company to build up....then the supply and demand side will determine the movement of its share price...

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 11:32 | Report Abuse

As a gauge, AA made 92m quarterly profit in the latest quarter. Work out the EPS, then times 4 quarter, roughly give u the FY19 earnings. Then times the PER u r giving AA , then u will getting a price that most investors are willing to pay. Of course multiply 4 quarter earnings in a linear way may be inaacurate cos certain quarter will enjoy peak season ticket sales and weak ticket sales. But it at least gives an idea whether TF 4, 5 or 6 is realistic. However, and unless there is a bug growth story like the E platform suddenly kick off, the teleport suddenly made 100m and the brent crude below US$50, its share price will jump experience knee jerk reaction albeit temporarily....

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 11:34 | Report Abuse

Of course i am praying all the above fto come thru plus the listing of AA phil, AA Thailand and AA Indon. :） but i can only pray and hope...this is the name of the game in BURSA, isnt it.....? HOPE is how it gets us going each and everyday

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 11:36 | Report Abuse

With so many variables, thats why all those ANALYSTs get it wrong all the time. I dont trust analysts in AA but i trust what they said about AA...AA is not easy to anaylse and unpredictable!:)

Posted by elbrutus > 2019-06-02 11:59 | Report Abuse

guys..anyone so kind to tell what SBB stands for ?? tq

Posted by Lanesra > 2019-06-02 12:03 | Report Abuse

SBB is share buyback. Egm on June 27.
At last some well written constructive discussion here !

Posted by Lanesra > 2019-06-02 12:11 | Report Abuse

I strongly agree with Agjl statement, as usual buy stock is investing not gambling. And again to remain all to always set your target price in and out. As for I was stuck at 2.9 earlier this year but still holding to date as I hate to see my portfolio to be red haha. just kidding. Anyway that sd 0.9cent per share is really one of the best I have seen since my investing days. Never had been even the BANKS I repeat the BANKS who are always cash rich ever gave out such dividends before.

I am not sure of what TF is thinking and his intention with doing with so much cash in his bank. Since mfrs the qr profit have been hampered but nevertheless in the airline industry they are still generating profit compare to other airlines. I guess I will continue holding and get that dividend unless the price suddenly shot up to RM 3.8-4 and I will happily sell off my shares. But again this is a gamble, once you are in after reaping the dividend you must be prepare for a long run with TF and his crew. As his other digital and logistics platform are still in baby stages.

Anyway any Liverpool fans here? good job finally you guys got something to brag about.
And enjoy your holidays as for me too. Happy Raya all Salam aidifitri

Posted by elbrutus > 2019-06-02 12:19 | Report Abuse

lanesra bro...tqvm

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-06-02 12:25 | Report Abuse

Agjl, fair statement.

Posted by Betkaukau > 2019-06-02 13:04 | Report Abuse

TF said he don’t need RM8 billion cash in the bank to run a profitable business.

Who is the Agjl? Came out of nowhere. Another fun manager as well? Where r u when i shouting buy at 2.45? Now can laugh to bank....

Posted by InvestsucessTrader > 2019-06-02 13:23 | Report Abuse

Aiyoi!!! Just take your dividend and relax, tony will works and earn money for us. The shares I'm holding now is free of charge. the dividend is much more than the cost. Can anyone pls remind me of another stocks which is like AA.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2019-06-02 13:31 | Report Abuse

Posted by InvestsucessTrader > Jun 2, 2019 1:23 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyoi!!! Just take your dividend and relax, tony will works and earn money for us. The shares I'm holding now is free of charge. the dividend is much more than the cost. Can anyone pls remind me of another stocks which is like AA.


===========

No others like AA and TF...

.....when world business turns challenging....

either bungkus.....or cash call using rights issue etc

Posted by Secrecy > 2019-06-02 13:36 | Report Abuse

As a matter of fact and truth , what we are talking here has no effect whatsoever to the share price ( buy or sell) . We are just retailers or kacang putih.

Only institutional players like EPF, local and foreign fund managers and investment banks has the power of pushing up or down, since they got millions and millions money daily flowing to them.

Conclusion : We and local analysts PBB, CIMB are just talk cock.

A quote suddenly emerged in my mind: When people are fearful, time to buy.......( I can feel that in this forum)

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-06-02 13:38 | Report Abuse

Conclusion : We and local analysts PBB, CIMB are just talk cock.

Everyone can talk cock!!

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 13:45 | Report Abuse

BETKAUKAU...first i am honored to have caught your attention. Hope its a good attention and not the other way. To answer your question....i m neither fund manager nor fun manager....I m just a normal person trying to make my hard earned money invested and hopefully get a decent return.
And i m also one of small holder in AA who is facing a dilema right now with the SD.

To answer another of your question, i did not come out from no where. I have been reading all this while in this forum and taking note of what everyone says. What i have said recently just my thought and nothing to do with badmouthing nor promoting AA. Afterall i m too insignificant to all...

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 13:48 | Report Abuse

BETKAUKAU.....i have been in AA since the Indon disaster...when AA price crashed due to the disaster and slo due to the REPORT from some smart Alec investement bank in Hong Kong questioning AA accounting practice. AA price crash from 2plus all the way to 80plus. I was there....already

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 13:49 | Report Abuse

BETKAUKAU....i heard you when you shouted buy at 2.45. My silence does not mean i agreed or disagreed with you. Moreover, ppl who is keen to invest they will do their homework and not influenced by others’ calling buy or sell.

Posted by Investor48 > 2019-06-02 13:51 | Report Abuse

All can talk cock but make sure $$$ masuk pocket..
Agreed that let TF works & makes $$$ for us..
Conclusion: just hold and take dividend..and of course enjoy life..

Hehe...

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2019-06-02 13:53 | Report Abuse

In short, With AA.....your $$$$ works for you

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 13:56 | Report Abuse

For those who are holding below 2.50, the decision is quite easy. Those who hold above 3, the decision is crucial. I guess TONY has throw the ball to us all small holders with the SD, and he is telling us “ with me and take the SD or or not with me and sell”

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2019-06-02 13:59 | Report Abuse

Over years, AA has an excellent track record......investors can trust

AA and TF, we trust

A great man.....great business....come happy investors

Posted by shrobin > 2019-06-02 14:14 | Report Abuse

https://youtu.be/8olfKKdRD3I

Posted by fitman > 2019-06-02 14:16 | Report Abuse

Agjl, those holding 270 how ?

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 14:35 | Report Abuse

FITMAN.....my apology....afraid i dun have answer for you cos this is a very personal decision. Depends how you view AA future and the whole global economy aa a whole.

As an idea, if you are holding at 2.70. If you stay for the SD, your cost after ex dividend will be 2.70 - 0.90= 1.80. It looks quite cheap but if every stay constant. Other factors include how the share price will close before it goes ex. If before ex its 3 then your cost will be 2.10. If closed before ex is 2.50 then you will be in a loss position after ex. Even if it closed at 2.70 before ex with the ex price as 1.80 being your cost, you will stay in the money if after that period the price wont go lower.

Historically, most share after ex dividend the first few days will still stay above the ex price but will drift furher after that. And also if any earnings upgrade or downgrade come along, that will also affect the share price. It could go higher that you will earn more after the dividend or it will go lower and cancel off your dividend or even drift into losses if there is a big earnings downgrade which will cause the price to be depressed for a while.

So, there is no straight answer to your question. All depends on if and if and if. And your if is as good as my if:). Thats why its a dilema...i believe to some as well

Posted by Betkaukau > 2019-06-02 15:23 | Report Abuse

@Agjl. Haha. Just kidding only lah. From the way you write, we knew you are not fun manager like N17. I remember during acct crisis for AA, i bought at 90 cents when everyone screaming to sell and it did went down lower. Eventually i managed to sell at 1.80 with 100% huge profit. Damn, it went up to 2.50+ and 3.00++ after that..

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 15:50 | Report Abuse

BETKAUKAU....no worries.. we are all here in the same boat....all about sharing. I believe we all believe in the same thing in AA, the only diference is the exit point...which difer from one individual to another. Also our diferent expectaions and diferent level of expectations...


Happy for youbthat upu caught AA at the lows years ago. That make u a wealthy man....congrat

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 15:52 | Report Abuse

Like the saying, we cant buy at the lowest and sell at the highest...at least its true most of the time. Thus the dilema of stay put to get the bumper dividend or cash out when price run? Guess we are blessed with this dilema rather than whether cash out at the low to avoid rights issue:)

Posted by fitman > 2019-06-02 16:10 | Report Abuse

Agjl, Ok. I will only consider to sell if only price beyond 3.50 before ex. at RM2, it is dirt cheap for world best low cost carrier.i think.

Posted by bigfund > 2019-06-02 17:11 | Report Abuse

Can I still buy this counter to get the dividen. When will the dividen come out

Posted by Investor48 > 2019-06-02 17:13 | Report Abuse

For me it's simple..just hold..goose that laid the golden eggs..
When it drops too much..just top up (dividend)..

Hehe..

Posted by JN88 > 2019-06-02 17:28 | Report Abuse

Walao so many people want to buy....online sifu ask to buy ar?

Posted by stockmkt101 > 2019-06-02 17:30 | Report Abuse

I wish AA didn't announce the 90c special dividend. Then we don't have to do any kind of cock-shit talk!

Posted by tash1 > 2019-06-02 18:18 | Report Abuse

If next trading day drop even a little all those idiot fun manager will come and talk shit about AA and bark to sell

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2019-06-02 18:30 | Report Abuse

Only will inch up......

......one way.....not down

Posted by fitman > 2019-06-02 19:05 | Report Abuse

i wish to add few more lots below 2.90

Posted by InvestsucessTrader > 2019-06-02 19:09 | Report Abuse

If a person can turn a losing company with 2 planes into one of the best in Asia, He must have special bussiness acumen.

Posted by Secrecy > 2019-06-02 19:30 | Report Abuse

Agjl, let's go to AGM in coming days . I stayed nearby KLIA2.

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 19:42 | Report Abuse

SECRECY....Ok but when is the AGM? Sorry i didnt keep track:)

Posted by Secrecy > 2019-06-02 20:12 | Report Abuse

Agjl: 27/6/2019, 10am, " Sharebuyback resolution ".

Posted by Agjl > 2019-06-02 20:30 | Report Abuse

SECRECY......thank you

Posted by Sifu Wang > 2019-06-02 21:48 | Report Abuse

buy buy buy so i can sell at a higher price please

Posted by 88luckybull > 2019-06-02 21:59 | Report Abuse

yes. Buy low and sell high.... RM4 maybe good to sell

Posted by blueocean88 > 2019-06-02 22:41 | Report Abuse

Anyone have any ideas of SBB value ?

Posted by fitman > 2019-06-02 23:11 | Report Abuse

SBB done follow market price like all of us.