Stuck more money slowly lo..wait for price stable at certain price , then it will be in accumulation period for a period before really rebound. But it will be rebound if and only if qr slowly improving..else u will see the down trend continue ..
I aware of the problem of this strategy but i am not good in timing. I have 'stuck' 20k in this stock. I will accumulate 1 or 2 times in a months if the share below 60 sen. 10,000 unit if price between 50 cent to 60 cent. 15,000 unit if price between 40 cent to 50 cent. 20,000 unit if price below 40 cent. My budget is 80k for this.
I used this strategy for AA during the time AA price dip to 70 cent from RM2. Now my paper gain is more than RM 200K. This does not incluse 24 cents dividend that i received lasy year.
haha... mooxi, mauxi or whoever the fake ID is... here are my words for you:
1) You keep mentioning you were ex-staff of Evergreen... Ok, assuming you did not lie.. did that prove you know what is happening in the company? So, by saying you know how Evergreen is performing is indeed a big joke...
2) What if you were lying? that is even worse... I can also say I am the CEO, COO, CFO, CTO bla bla bla.. jokers are all around the world, isn't it? haha
moneykj aka another joker: if I or anyone knew that the price would have dropped, definitely I would wait till it drops to the lowest then only i buy.. but can anyone predict that accurately? So, the right approach is to continue buying in batches as long as it is undervalued...and as long as you have enough bullets to top up gradually and have that holding power...
so pls la.. dun come out and act like a "leopard behind a horse" like what Chinese like to say (only after a certain incident, u came out and shout: see, u should not have done this and that bla bla bla)...
I agreed with what Martingale said... I did the same thing on Airasia when it was trading from RM1.30 to around 80sen... and then just waited.. what is Airasia price now? I sold around 50% when it was trading at RM4.10... and keep the 50% for future growth...
oh ya.. i forgot about the 3rd scenario for mauxi, mooxi whoever the joker is...
3) he is indeed an ex-staff of Evergreen. But due to disciplinary issue / under-performing issue, he was sacked and now holds a grudge against Evergreen...
and my personal gut feeling tells me he falls under the 3rd scenario.. hahaha
Hevea has not been truthful about their labour issues. Last Qtr the analysts were caught by surprise as Hevea met them before they announced their 3Q results but mgmt didn't mention about their labour issues. After the analysts made noise, only then mgmt explained and promised it was short term issue and would be resolved soon, with little impact on 4Q. Now singing a different tune already. How to trust mgmt like this?
kasinathan, if u are so genius. Could u explain why are the following not dragging down evergreen business? I hope u acknowledge these are real issues and I dun make them up.
-Industry supply overcapacity in the region -Ringgit too strong -Rubberwood basic material shortage -Labour cost increased -Foreign labour shortage
@mauxi now reach ur tp price oledi.... i remember u said u only give tis counter 50 cent only ooo... now is time for u good entry.... how come u still 讲东讲西。。 entry jor mei.... hehe...
1) The market structure of evergreen in is oligopolistic which mean only few players command big market share in the region. Obviously, the requirement for big capital start up, mediocre margin and continuity in materials supply are barrier to entry in this business. in other words, it is unlikely for a complete new player venturing into this business.
2) The company must be cost competitive as the final products are identical. in this respect, business scale, production efficiency and multiple manufacturing footprint in various countries are critical and essential competitiveness factors. in addition, accessibility in raw materials namely wood wastage and glue must be consistent.
3) Understanding of the business would not be comprehensive enough if without considering the risk factos both short term and long term. in this respect, the business cyclical, possibility of mismatch between individual existing capacity expansion against regional demand , raw materials supply interuption and sudden cost hike in glue that associated with petriol price movement. in a nutshell, these are temporary risk factors affected the players in the industry. One good thing when you invested with the oligopolist, there is less competition tendency among existing players in the long term as profit maximization would automatically govern the ultimate behaviour in the market landscape. a good example in malaysia is occured in the carton industry when the japanese giant managed to consolidate the industry into ologopolistic structure whuch 4 players controlled nearly 80% of market share. if you check the carton listed companies in malaysia, all enjoying significant improvement in profitability the last 3 years over the past decades. There is the power of oligopolist in fixing price in the marketplace for common benefits.
4) Judging from the above. the short term mismatch in capacity and demand if any would not be a long term problem. in fact, the shortage in the rubberwood in malaysia several months ago reflect no mismatch in the supply-demand chain. The self interest analyst whom projected the problem might have separate hidden agenda.
5) Strong currency would have no problem for oligopolist as they are price fixer in the ling rum. if you are worries strong ringgit ?) to the botto line, then all the thai competitors would have close shop as strong thai bath have increase from 55-1usd to 31-1usd...
The thai competitors wanachai group performaces mirrored what i talking about the strong currency have less impact in business among oligopolists.
The million dollar questions that we should ask...how to be a winner and the operate in the mediocre margin business environment?ii
THE COMPETENCY OF MANAGENT IUTWEIGH ALL OTHER FACTOR!!
Evegreen inherited with the comparative advantages in the georgraphy footprint, manufacturing and market in south east asia, the 4400 hectar of rubberwood plantation and facilities to making own glue.
in addition. the china as main competitors have just gone as they were no longer cist competite anymore. The crackdown of wood resources export orientated in china due to switching policy for environmental conservation augur well for evergreen not only from competition persepctive but rather an oportunity for market expansion there.
investing EVERGREEN at the current price ranges could be one of the best return within the next 2-3 years.
This is my pure opinion.....price might gi further down but i see the value is going to exploit soon....
take for example...public bank....a lot if people sold below rm1 in 1998 sept.....there are a lot of smart people bought constantly in the past several years ago....
that is the reality in bursa.....opinion and action for long term count.
it is pretty alright for the company to experenced short term hiccup in busineess. That would create lower price....otherwise where can buy at current prices......am i right?
well said kasinathan... just ignore mauxi or mioxi... who claimed to be ex-evergreen employee.. then changed his words and said he was misled by his ex-colleague in evergreen...
I have been collecting from around 90sen+ to now... no worry at all... my cost is getting cheaper... yes, in paper loss now.. but... so what? haha....
let's see in 1-2 year time...
i am pretty sure if will give me 200 to 300% of return...
i agree with what you said about it is not easy to get in this capital intensive business...
i had said that many times in the past... during 2012-13 period, many small MDF players closed shop and Evergreen, as the biggest MDF player in ASEAN absorbed the capacity that were once supplied by these small players.. and gain more market share...
They are still a profitable company with good expansion/growth plan...
I own some E'grn shares and hv been hesitant to buy more due to the poor market sentiment and the continuous falling of its share price. After reading Dolly's explanation, I feel encouraged and will invest some more. Thanks Dolly. Wish the good time turn around will not be far away.
Own an egg at least can eat it. Still a holland stock led by the pokai salesman dollychai. Still not famous for being holland king? What a loser cum stubborn sohai
Base on last qr.. Their capex start bring extra revenue already.. this qr should be more .. besides that .. last qr Thailand factory close for maintainance .. This qr most QOQ up , YOY similar. .
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
moneykj
6,128 posts
Posted by moneykj > 2018-02-09 17:15 | Report Abuse
The cheerleader talk like expert. Averaging down from 1.00 till discount 50%. Only him can do that. More expert than Terbalik King Calvin.