Posted by risktransformer > 2019-06-28 16:40 | Report Abuse

With EPF resuming heavy selling again, RM7.99 may be a possibility soon.

Posted by lurhays > 2019-06-28 21:41 | Report Abuse

she's got support at 8.280 on 16/01/2019 and 04/06/2019... and resistence reach ceiling at 9.500 on 14/03/2019... so i thinks she just moving between 8.300 - 9.500 at present...

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-06-29 08:46 | Report Abuse

^^

Short Term (within next 1 month):
Resistance at RM8.58
Support at RM8.24

Medium Term (within next 3 months):
Resistance at RM8.95
Support at RM8.15

Posted by Dakewlest > 2019-07-01 12:52 | Report Abuse

Good QR ahead??

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-07-01 17:10 | Report Abuse

I think it was speculative buyers that pushed up the price..... the volume traded today was very low (less than half the volume of last Friday).

Posted by Rwkl > 2019-07-01 21:19 | Report Abuse

EPF resumes selling millions. Speculative buyers dived in with low volume and yet they managed to get the upper hand. Mind boggling...

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-01 21:27 | Report Abuse

Nothing mind boggling. I can predict with 100% certainly that next year PCHEM revenues and net profit with be far more than today.

How do I know that. PIC, a structure that has more steel than 10 klccs.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-01 22:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by witchslayer > 2019-07-01 22:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-07-02 10:50 | Report Abuse

Yesterday's speculative buyers will become today's speculative sellers......... bringing down the price through their profit taking exercise.

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Rwkl: EPF resumes selling millions. Speculative buyers dived in with low volume and yet they managed to get the upper hand. Mind boggling...
01/07/2019 9:19 PM
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Posted by Rwkl > 2019-07-02 14:50 | Report Abuse

Oh, ok. I am sure this outcome will be of great comfort to investors especially those which took your projection of 7.99 to heart and sold at 8.30

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-07-02 15:29 | Report Abuse

Wow.... those sold at 8.30 were selling too low, should have waited for price to move up higher (like yesterday) b4 selling. And if u want to wait for 7.99 then u may have to wait for a long time (like a few months) ..... also, there is no guarantee that it will reach 7.99.

Posted by Rwkl > 2019-07-02 17:15 | Report Abuse

I am gobsmacked. 4 days ago you stated 7.99 could be possible and soon too.
But now due to some small time speculators 7.99 could take months and no guarantee even at that...

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-07-02 17:46 | Report Abuse

Well, the word "soon" can mean a few months to some people (or a few weeks to others)..... it depends on whether u r an investor or trader. In the stock market, nothing can be guaranteed because trends and sentiment keep changing. I have to give some caution here..... when I started posting about the downtrend of PCHEM about 5 or 6 months ago, it was based on my observation of EPF consistently selling 3 to 9 million shares on regular basis and later the downtrend was confirmed by a 12.5% correction of the KLCI. But then EPF started buying back PCHEM's shares for about a month (b4 the recent selling) and our stock market is having a 5.8% rebound now. Furthermore, speculators staged a breakout of my predicted short term resistance at RM8.58 yesterday..... so as a trader, I have to be flexible in my price projection.

Posted by mamatede > 2019-07-03 23:09 | Report Abuse

keep buying the low.

Posted by RainT > 2019-07-06 15:52 | Report Abuse

Come come 7.95..

Posted by zedgehong > 2019-07-08 10:17 | Report Abuse

I Think no more 7.95 . Price between 8.5 is the best price for entry , have any recommend or any news from your guys ?

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-07-08 13:28 | Report Abuse

There's a weak support at RM8.58 (see if it will break below this price today or next few days) and a very strong support at RM8.36 (if this is broken as well, then PCHEM will resume its long term downtrend). If the price can be supported above these two levels (i.e. RM8.36 & RM8.58) then things will begin looking very good for PCHEM.

Posted by RainT > 2019-07-10 10:59 | Report Abuse

EPF continue disposal spree

Posted by zedgehong > 2019-07-10 11:02 | Report Abuse

risktransformer , thank u for your info. today market is that a best time to invest ?

Posted by Dakewlest > 2019-07-10 11:49 | Report Abuse

Price drop because of QR?

Posted by Kayme > 2019-07-10 12:27 | Report Abuse

Petrochemicals 09 Jul 2019 | 16:43 UTC Houston
Americas petrochemicals outlook w/c July 8
Author Staff report Editor: Zac Aiuppa Commodity: Petrochemicals

US OLEFINS
Prompt July ethylene prices remained virtually unchanged over the week. The market is still closely watching the timing of the return of the BASF/Total cracker to normal operations, which has been supporting ethylene prices despite ethane prices being close to an all-time low. Ongoing turnarounds at BASF-Total's cracker and metathesis unit have been the primary reason behind higher spot propylene prices. US propylene stocks dropped slightly over the week, which also supported propylene prices. The market will watch for updated US propylene stocks at the US Energy Information Administration's weekly report Wednesday.

US POLYMERS
US polyethylene market participants looked to finalize domestic June contracts following the holiday-shortened week. Trade participants were divided on whether prices were flat to 3 cents down from May contracts. US polypropylene sources continued to discuss a margin erosion between polymer-grade propylene and PP, anticipating a possible 1-cent shrinkage for July. A disparity regarding the direction of spot PP pricing persisted, with some sources eyeing ample supply plus a soft market while others discussed robust demand and steady price increases.

LATIN POLYMERS
Brazilian polyethylene and polypropylene markets were expected to start the week slow because of a bank holiday in the state of Sao Paulo on Tuesday, which will affect most of the sector's operations. PE and PP have seen their CFR prices at low levels in the past weeks, driving domestic delivered prices down by Real200/mt last week, while local distributors expect a downtrend to continue in mid-July and fall another Real200/mt. Currency exchange is expected to be stable week on week. In Argentina, domestic prices were unchanged last week amid uncertainty in the local market after Dow Chemical's Bahia Blanca complex suffered an explosion in its ethylene cracker BB 2 plant in Dow Argentina at the end of June. The 455,000 mt/year cracker incident is slightly affecting the distribution chain and the severity of the impact will depend on the period of stoppage, which is expected to last at least one more week.

US VINYLS
July pricing for US export polyvinyl chloride was expected to settle this week after protracted negotiations. Market participants pushed back against proposed increases amid lackluster international demand. A producer decided Friday to not offer July volumes amid production issues that reduced export volume availability this month. Others had yet to settle talks that market sources described as a standoff. Offer levels Monday remained unchanged, while market participants pushed for lower pricing.
In Asia, fresh August offers were expected to emerge this week amid expectations of a rollover with July or $10-$20/mt lower. The US domestic PVC market considered a 2-cent/lb price increase for June, which would restore pricing to March levels after prices fell 2 cents/lb in April, market sources said. Domestic demand did not seasonally rise in March and April as is typical because of prolonged winter weather and severe flooding in some regions.

US AROMATICS
US benzene prices were expected to remain flat to lower amid expectations of continued strength in imports. Sources noted that demand was steady but was unlikely to see significant improvement from the downstream styrene segment as prices continued to hover in the low-$900s/mt. Demand for toluene from the chemical segment was expected to remain subdued as conversion margins remained negative on the back of weaker paraxylene pricing. Toluene demand was likely to depend on the gasoline segment, particularly considering a recent spike that pushed blend values north of 270 cents/gal.

Posted by Kayme > 2019-07-10 12:27 | Report Abuse

Petrochemicals: 2019/07/08 07:00

Olefins
Trade for ethylene on a CFR Northeast basis was sluggish. Both sellers and buyers tried to determine market directions going forward and took a cautious stance. It was difficult to pass on costs of ethylene to many derivatives if ethylene prices increased. Further, new ethylene facilities would start operations soon. These factors capped the upside of the market. Under this situation, few bids and offers were heard.

In the Asia propylene market, supply was expected to increase going forward, buying interest from end-users was not strong. In Korea, operations at naphtha crackers were recovering and perceptions of tight supply eased. In Southeast Asia, few bids and offers were heard and prices tracked movements in the CFR Northeast Asia market.

The Asia butadiene market fell. Market sentiment weakened owing to poor demand. Although supply of Asian cargoes was not ample, the derivative synthetic rubber market softened. Moreover, non-regional cargoes were available and buying interest from end-users was weak.

Posted by Kayme > 2019-07-10 12:52 | Report Abuse

Petrochemicals 09 Jul 2019 | 19:29 UTC Houston
US resin export logistics face more logjams amid growing output
• Author: Kristen Hays
• Editor: Valarie Jackson
• Commodity: Petrochemicals
• Topic Industry Views
Houston — Logjams that hindered moving resin out of US ports from late 2018 through April have lightened up, but market participants expect the same problems to re-emerge later this year and into early 2020 as more polyethylene capacity comes online.
"We are expanding with all the polyethylene projects," a US market source said. "This year will be much worse than last year in terms of the amount of resources needed."
More than $200 billion in new petrochemical infrastructure has started up, is under construction, or planned in Texas, Louisiana, Pennsylvania and Ohio amid the US natural gas shale boom that has unearthed unprecedented access to cheap ethane feedstock.
New polyethylene resin production dominates the expansion renaissance, with capacity set to rise by 13.67 million mt/year, more than 50%, from 2017 through the next decade if all known projects reach fruition.
That new production is targeted for export, although 29% of new capacity that is operational already has taxed supply chains that move resin from producers to docks. Another 17% of the total slated to start up in the second half of 2019 is expected to bring at least a repeat of holdups that delayed resin exports for up to two months or more.

THE DELAYED SURGE
Hurricane Harvey's assault on the Texas Coast in August 2017 delayed the expected surge of new exports from new PE startups as producers focused on domestic demand for months after the storm.
But in the second half of 2018, PE inventories were high after producers held back volumes through late summer to protect thick margins. Prices began to retreat and export-bound volumes grew amid higher overall production, loading up Houston-area supply chain stops between plants and docks that did not meaningfully begin to clear until late April 2019.
Polyvinyl chloride volumes were mired in in the pileups as well, held up so long at times that customers canceled shipments, according to multiple traders.
The lack of consistent empty container availability in New Orleans also prompted Louisiana PE and PVC output to flow to Houston for packaging and export, exacerbating delays.

PACKAGING EXPANSIONS COMING
More than 5 million mt/year of new PE packaging capacity added in the US as the first wave of new PE production began starting up in 2017 and 2018 got a hefty workout after the Harvey-related lull, and more additions are coming alongside more PE startups. Resin buyers also have pushed for producers to sell prepackaged material so they could bypass SIT yard holdups, and more packaging expansions are starting up or planned.

Posted by Kayme > 2019-07-10 12:54 | Report Abuse

Supply increase and demand flat.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-07-10 15:45 | Report Abuse

@zedgehong, I can only provide u with a general price projection..... whether it is a good time to enter now at current price will depend on what kind of investor or trader u r (i.e. your own investment/trading profile) & your strategy (how u invest/trade).

PCHEM has been in a long term downtrend (for the past 11 months) & this long term downtrend is still intact & ongoing. Speculators staged a technical rebound 01 July (9 days ago) which doesn't look sustainable. I prefer to wait & see if the price will break below RM8.36 or will it be supported above that price b4 making any further commitment in this counter.

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zedgehong: risktransformer , thank u for your info. today market is that a best time to invest ?
10/07/2019 11:02 AM
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Posted by risktransformer > 2019-07-10 17:42 | Report Abuse

Hahaha!! More accurately..... price drop because EPF resume heavy selling on daily basis.

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Dakewlest: Price drop because of QR?
10/07/2019 11:49 AM
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Posted by Kayme > 2019-07-10 23:30 | Report Abuse

Petrochemicals 10 Jul 2019 | 04:08 UTC Singapore

H2 outlook: Global polyethylene market seen bearish on weak demand, rising supply

Author: Fumiko Dobashi Hui Heng
Commodity: Petrochemicals

Highlights:
Demand growth for packaging seen lukewarm
US-China trade tensions, weak currencies add further weight

Singapore — The outlook for the polyethylene market globally is bearish for the remainder of the year due to a combination of weak feedstock costs, weak global demand and anticipated plant startups, according to market participants.

An estimated 4 million-5 million mt of new polyethylene supply is expected to come online by end December -- 2.9 million mt of it in the US and the rest in Asia. However, the new polyethylene units are expected to contribute only around half their nameplate capacities initially due to the various delays in the typical ramp-up cycle before reaching on-specification resin, and due to potential delays in receiving on-site monomer from steam crackers.

Market sources were expecting more US shale-based PE to enter the market worldwide excluding China in H2, in regions such as Latin America, Europe and then Asia. Producer sources in the key supply region of the Middle East estimated that around 12 million mt/year of PE in 2019 will continue to diversify end-product portfolios, where competition is less intense.

Weak ethylene feedstock markets were expected to weigh on PE buying ideas, while demand was expected to be generally more bearish in H2 than a year earlier due to uncertain macroeconomics, particularly resulting from the US-China trade tensions.

"Even if there is a resolution with China, there is still no guarantee that China will come back to the market," a US PE distributor said. While US-China trade tensions continue to simmer heading into H2, PE market participants have been more concerned about the recent weakness in global demand. South Asia and Southeast Asia have not seen a rise in polymer finished orders from the US as their manufacturing capacities are not as big as China's, traders said.

The current PE surplus will continue to be absorbed by China's demand through some redirection of regional cargoes, sellers said. Some participants were expecting more Southeast Asian cargoes to be exported to China due to regional plant expansions and the ASEAN-China free trade agreement. Some small Chinese plastic recyclers have also relocated to Southeast Asian countries such as Cambodia and Myanmar due to cheaper labor costs, sources said.

US exports of high density polyethylene, linear low density PE and low density PE combined totaled 1.8 million mt over January-April, surging almost 50% from the same period a year earlier, according to US International Trade Commission data. However, with exports for some grades of PE to China impacted by a 25% tariff, specifically LLDPE and HDPE, US exporters have relied on Latin America as a key export destination.

With escalating tensions between the US and China, Europe has seen imports from the US increase this year, with market participants expecting this will continue into H2. According to latest Eurostat data, HDPE imports between January and April 2019 totaled 35,300 mt, up from 22,160 mt in the same period a year earlier.

Virgin PE was likely to remain the preferred substitute despite the recent government push for recycling; recycled resins account for around 3%-4% of the volume of production used in polymer resins. Recycled material is still less easily available and requires a large capital outlay.

The performance of recycled material was also generally not up to expectations, and a lack of financial incentives to collect and sort waste and a fragmented industry comprising mostly small players continued to constrain development, market sources said. Some traders were not optimistic that recycled PE could replace virgin PE, noting that virgin resin made from ethane was currently very cheap.

Currency depreciation against the US dollar has also dampened imports to several countries.

In one of the leading polymer markets, Turkey, the weak US dollar-Turkish lira exchange rate continues to hamper selling into the Turkish market, as imported material is purchased in US dollars and then sold into the market in the local currency. "Turkey is going through difficult times and businesses are squeezed," one trader said.

Posted by titus > 2019-07-11 09:38 | Report Abuse

Thanks Kayme for constant updating on the plastic outlook. With more countries tightening regulation on plastic and also issues such as developing countries no longer accept plastic waste from the 1st world country, i wonder how much more it will impact plastic industry and thus lead to very demand for raw plastic material.

Posted by mamatede > 2019-07-12 17:11 | Report Abuse

Dont forget their other business as well. Thats why Pchem is call chemicals not plastics.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-07-16 16:27 | Report Abuse

RM8.36 technical support broken!! Long term downtrend resume (with EPF resuming regular heavy selling)..... RM7.95 is not far away.

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > 2019-07-16 19:16 | Report Abuse

What is the purpose of this?

>>>>>>

stingray_ea(
100% Candlestick,simple,fast,high accuratecy
No Trendline, UpDown,Z,M,N,W Reverse lines, U,F,O turns.
No Indicator
No News
No FA / TA
Go deep into operator mind and read their steps
Go deep into retailer mind and read their steps after operator actions
)

Posted by mamatede > 2019-07-16 23:26 | Report Abuse

sad pchem performed like this. Though i keep average down price also seems continue slide without ending. If i sell i realized huge lose, what to do continue buying and holding.

Posted by mamatede > 2019-07-17 09:40 | Report Abuse

Samur is current in turnaround mode. Starting soon.

Posted by RainT > 2019-07-17 09:46 | Report Abuse

@mamatede

of course continue buy la

this is a rare chance

not always come

Posted by RainT > 2019-07-17 09:49 | Report Abuse

ah

recent sell down due to EPF selling

not the PCHEM fundamental issue

Posted by mamatede > 2019-07-17 09:59 | Report Abuse

how muchj epf actually hold for pchem?

Posted by RainT > 2019-07-17 10:01 | Report Abuse

now not sure

need see the latest annual report at the shareholding breakdown

Posted by RainT > 2019-07-17 10:01 | Report Abuse

queue at 8.13

so fast get matched , haha

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-07-17 10:18 | Report Abuse

I already explained about EPF's manipulation on PCHEM's price 5 months earlier b4 stingray_ea appear in this forum now (recently).

----------------------------------------------------------
RainT: ah

recent sell down due to EPF selling

not the PCHEM fundamental issue
17/07/2019 9:49 AM
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Posted by RainT > 2019-07-17 10:21 | Report Abuse

omg 8.05

sial to buy at 8.13

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-07-17 10:21 | Report Abuse

RM7.95 coming sooner than I expected!!

Posted by Ncm88 > 2019-07-17 10:42 | Report Abuse

see u at 7 lah, 8 also break soon

Posted by Keyman188 > 2019-07-17 10:45 | Report Abuse

Haa...Haa....

Long waiting to break RM 8.00

Posted by Ncm88 > 2019-07-17 11:01 | Report Abuse

Break 8 liao

Posted by Keyman188 > 2019-07-17 11:10 | Report Abuse

Haa...

Now reach 7.90

Posted by Keyman188 > 2019-07-17 11:11 | Report Abuse

EPF keep on disposing huge volume recently...

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-17 11:14 | Report Abuse

See What happen pchem today leh ???

U cannot keep ctiticize Lctitan poor share performance without looking at the vulnerability of pchem too as they are in the same industry loh...!!

Same Thats why i say if yinson can shoot up so much to Rm 7billion mkt cap , u cannot ignore the opportunity of armada who is even larger than yinson, but its mkt cap only Rm 1.4billion loj....!!

Posted by Keyman188 > 2019-07-17 11:17 | Report Abuse

Haahaa...

Please don't use PChem compare LCTitan...

Here is Malaysia...

Must think who lead market in Malaysia...

Posted by abc333 > 2019-07-17 11:28 | Report Abuse

jump in now or wait for 7.5?